Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic spreads from China to US

OhioBobcatFan06 said:
While this is an interesting graph, it is also terribly misleading. It skews highly populated countries very badly. The states of California and New York combined are about the same population as Italy. Forget the other 48 states.
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This graph is illustrating the growth trajectory of new cases. I realize their are other data points that are relevant but it is spreading quickly across the US while contained in other countries. The idea is to slow the curve. We are failing at slowing the curve.
 
Happygoluckky said:
True I should rephrase based on info available it is spreading more quickly in the US than Iran. (not sure we can trust data from Iran) My point is we are becoming an outlier on the current path and pulling back on social distancing is not a great plan.
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Pulling back today would be.
 
AllSports12 said:
Spain and Italy are very close median age-wise...

Spain - just shy of 45
Italy - just shy of 45.5

Demographics....

20% of Spain's population is over 65*
23% of Italy's population is over 65*
* varies greatly by region
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Thanks. What was your source?

The CIA fact book shows Italy at 46.5 (22.3% 65+) and Spain at 43.9 (18.5%). US is 38.5 (16.9%), which surprises me given the age of boomers.

CIA.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/fields/343rank.html
 
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Happygoluckky said:
This graph is illustrating the growth trajectory of new cases. I realize their are other data points that are relevant but it is spreading quickly across the US while contained in other countries. The idea is to slow the curve. We are failing at slowing the curve.
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Given it takes up to two weeks for symptoms to present, it’s too early to say we aren’t slowing the curve. Add to that testing is being ramped up.
 
I’ve read multiple articles citing various doctors etc. and one of the arguments that I keep stumbling upon is that this virus is so dangerous compared to influenza because humans do not have any immunities or vaccines for it compared to the flu. My confusion is that with hundreds of years of immunities built up and vaccines for the flu it still kills wayyyy more people (including children) every year than coronavirus in the U.S.

My honest question for the people in here who know more about this topic than me is why in years past has there never been any kind of government response to influenza like what we are seeing with the coronavirus? Someone please help clear this up if I am way off base and I apologize if this has already been discussed.
 
Happygoluckky said:
This graph is illustrating the growth trajectory of new cases. I realize their are other data points that are relevant but it is spreading quickly across the US while contained in other countries. The idea is to slow the curve. We are failing at slowing the curve.
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It's too soon to say that.

The US is 17 or 18 days out since the 100th case... But that's over a population of 350 million, nearly 6 times the potential number of people to infect than Italy, a population of only 60 million. What this means is the US is really a lot further "left" on the scale than shown in that graph.

Ohio has a population of about 12 million. So Italy is about 5x the size of us. How many days since Ohio reported it's 100th case? That was like 3 or 4 days ago? So while the growth rate of Ohio might look steep right now we're very far "left" on that chart.
 
Happygoluckky said:
This graph is illustrating the growth trajectory of new cases. I realize their are other data points that are relevant but it is spreading quickly across the US while contained in other countries. The idea is to slow the curve. We are failing at slowing the curve.
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The poorest countries in the world that have no testing capabilities have the slowest growth rate of 0%. Remember, the data is influenced by alot of factors. It is impossible to know which countries it is spreading the fastest in without 100% testing on all of the population.
 
Yappi said:
The poorest countries in the world that have no testing capabilities have the slowest growth rate of 0%. Remember, the data is influenced by alot of factors. It is impossible to know which countries it is spreading the fastest in without 100% testing on all of the population.
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On this topic, Dewine noted today that although there are 0 reported cases in SE Ohio right now they believe that's just because there isn't testing available. The hospital is Athens just announced today they will began testing. As of now, anyone in SE Ohio has to go to Columbus to get tested.

I suspect part of the reason Cuyahoga County is the highest in the state is because the Clinic and UH are good at testing...

So many variables at play that could be giving us misleading data...
 
bulldogcountry said:
My honest question for the people in here who know more about this topic than me is why in years past has there never been any kind of government response to influenza like what we are seeing with the coronavirus? Someone please help clear this up if I am way off base and I apologize if this has already been discussed.
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Because we've accepted the known risk of the flu. Coronavirus is new and scary. It potentially could be much worse than any flu we have seen in our lifetimes. Of course, it may not be as bad as predicted either. Our society is now setup to overreact in these type of situations.
 
cabezadecaballo said:
Actually, the commie solution I saw on 60 Minutes was far better. Infrared exhaust cams at intersections identifying polluters, notifying them, and directing them to a school auto shop for a budget repair if they were broke or cheap. University of Colorado project, iirc.

The best part was the EPA honk basically saying Have a nice day!!! when the reporter tried to solicit comment.

You were like 10 or so back then, I guess, so you were on the Nintendo when it aired. Must have missed it.
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Original Nintendo was before my time. Nintendo 64 was my generation.
 
Yappi said:
Because we've accepted the known risk of the flu. Coronavirus is new and scary. It potentially could be much worse than any flu we have seen in our lifetimes. Of course, it may not be as bad as predicted either. Our society is now setup to overreact in these type of situations.
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I'd agree, and add a few things. Flu usually hits quicker and sits you down at home, so you don't spread it around as much. This is said to spread more easily, too. Flu complications typically resolve sooner, so ventilator beds clear out sooner.

Maybe even worse, China has both lied in a way that makes it look worse AND we have treated their incomplete data like we would our own.
 
Yappi said:
Because we've accepted the known risk of the flu. Coronavirus is new and scary. It potentially could be much worse than any flu we have seen in our lifetimes. Of course, it may not be as bad as predicted either. Our society is now setup to overreact in these type of situations.
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Sums it up perfectly. (toilet paper)

Add the wild forecasting and sometimes incoherent news/press/public briefings to the mix and you have the makings of our world the last three weeks.
 
Saw this elsewhere...

Inconvenient facts. Partisan politics against the Coronavirus timeline. Make of it what you will.
January 11: Chinese state media report the first known death from an illness originating in the Wuhan market.

January 15: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) holds a vote to send articles of impeachment to the Senate. Pelosi and House Democrats celebrate the “solemn” occasion with a signing ceremony, using commemorative pens.

January 21: The first person with coronavirus arrives in the United States from China, where he had been in Wuhan.

January 23: The House impeachment managers make their opening arguments for removing President Trump.

January 23: China closes off the city of Wuhan completely to slow the spread of coronavirus to the rest of China.

January 30: Senators begin asking two days of questions of both sides in the president’s impeachment trial.

January 30: The World Health Organization declares a global health emergency as coronavirus continues to spread.

January 31: The Senate holds a vote on whether to allow further witnesses and documents in the impeachment trial.

January 31: President Trump declares a national health emergency and imposes a ban on travel to and from China. Former Vice President Joe Biden calls Trump’s decision “hysterical xenophobia … and fear-mongering.”

February 2: The first death from coronavirus outside China is reported in the Philippines.

February 3: House impeachment managers begin closing arguments, calling Trump a threat to national security.

February 4: President Trump talks about coronavirus in his State of the Union address; Pelosi rips up every page.

February 5: The Senate votes to acquit President Trump on both articles of impeachment, 52-48 and 53-47.

February 5: House Democrats finally take up coronavirus in the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia.
 
bulldogcountry said:
I’ve read multiple articles citing various doctors etc. and one of the arguments that I keep stumbling upon is that this virus is so dangerous compared to influenza because humans do not have any immunities or vaccines for it compared to the flu. My confusion is that with hundreds of years of immunities built up and vaccines for the flu it still kills wayyyy more people (including children) every year than coronavirus in the U.S.

My honest question for the people in here who know more about this topic than me is why in years past has there never been any kind of government response to influenza like what we are seeing with the coronavirus? Someone please help clear this up if I am way off base and I apologize if this has already been discussed.
Click to expand...

This is a good question and I don't have an answer for it. Yappi is probably closest to having the best answer. The reality is that it's unlikely we'll see a death total greater then our worst flu death totals from 2017/18 which was 61,000.

In hindsight I suspect that most of the scientists studying this will conclude we overreacted. All you have to do is look at the flu death totals from the last 9 flu seasons (an average of over 37,000 Americans died) and ask why don't we close American down from October 1 to May 1 EVERY year?
 
boiler said:
Saw this elsewhere...

Inconvenient facts. Partisan politics against the Coronavirus timeline. Make of it what you will.
January 11: Chinese state media report the first known death from an illness originating in the Wuhan market.

January 15: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) holds a vote to send articles of impeachment to the Senate. Pelosi and House Democrats celebrate the “solemn” occasion with a signing ceremony, using commemorative pens.

January 21: The first person with coronavirus arrives in the United States from China, where he had been in Wuhan.

January 23: The House impeachment managers make their opening arguments for removing President Trump.

January 23: China closes off the city of Wuhan completely to slow the spread of coronavirus to the rest of China.

January 30: Senators begin asking two days of questions of both sides in the president’s impeachment trial.

January 30: The World Health Organization declares a global health emergency as coronavirus continues to spread.

January 31: The Senate holds a vote on whether to allow further witnesses and documents in the impeachment trial.

January 31: President Trump declares a national health emergency and imposes a ban on travel to and from China. Former Vice President Joe Biden calls Trump’s decision “hysterical xenophobia … and fear-mongering.”

February 2: The first death from coronavirus outside China is reported in the Philippines.

February 3: House impeachment managers begin closing arguments, calling Trump a threat to national security.

February 4: President Trump talks about coronavirus in his State of the Union address; Pelosi rips up every page.

February 5: The Senate votes to acquit President Trump on both articles of impeachment, 52-48 and 53-47.

February 5: House Democrats finally take up coronavirus in the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia.
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You have to believe that the Trump administration was distracted by the impeachment. It would be silly to think otherwise. And if we had an honest, competent, & unbiased media they would be pointing that out. There are consequences to launching an impeachment of the POTUS.
 
eastside_purple said:
Lol okay
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Why can't you just ignore an answer you don't like?

I don't need to justify to you why they are there, where they got the figures, or even why I have discussed it with them the past couple of weeks. If you don't like the figures, ignore them... just move on with life.
 
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OhioBobcatFan06 said:
On this topic, Dewine noted today that although there are 0 reported cases in SE Ohio right now they believe that's just because there isn't testing available. The hospital is Athens just announced today they will began testing. As of now, anyone in SE Ohio has to go to Columbus to get tested.

I suspect part of the reason Cuyahoga County is the highest in the state is because the Clinic and UH are good at testing...

So many variables at play that could be giving us misleading data...
Click to expand...

And this begs the question that even in the absence of testing, if folks experience moderate to severe symptoms they're going to call their Doctor and go to the nearest hospital. I'm still not hearing or seeing reports of people flooding the hospitals. Has anyone out there?

And don't forget that Dr, Acton said ON MARCH 12 that modeling indicated that 117,000 Ohioans were infected with the C-virus. Given an average incubation to symptoms of a little under 6 days if this many people had it AND it was especially virulent we should be seeing folks flooding the hospitals.

My guess is that a lot of Ohioans have been infected but so far the virulence has been low.

But I'm annoyed that given Dr, Acton's statements on March 12 that they continue to push back the point at which this will explode on Ohio. Based on what we know about the etiology of this virus today and given the numbers Acton claimed were infected back on March 12 shouldn't we be seeing more signs of the surge?
 
lotr10 said:
And this begs the question that even in the absence of testing, if folks experience moderate to severe symptoms they're going to call their Doctor and go to the nearest hospital. I'm still not hearing or seeing reports of people flooding the hospitals. Has anyone out there?

And don't forget that Dr, Acton said ON MARCH 12 that modeling indicated that 117,000 Ohioan were infected with the C-virus. Given an average incubation to symptoms of a little under 6 days if this many people had it AND it was especially virulent we should be seeing folks flooding the hospitals.

My guess is that a lot of Ohioans have been infected but so far the virulence has been low.

But I'm annoyed that given Dr, Acton's statements on March 12 that they continue to push back the point at which this will explode on Ohio. Based on what we know about the etiology of this virus today and given the numbers Acton claimed were infected back on March 12 shouldn't we be seeing more signs of the surge?
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Deaths rate for confirmed cases in US under 1.5%, among the lowest in the world
 
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