Week 3: Glenville (2-0) at Avon (2-0)

Who wins?

  • Avon Eagles

    Votes: 56 54.4%

  • Glenville Tarblooders

    Votes: 47 45.6%
  • Total voters
    103
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Tiger Alum said:
True but maybe he should wait 5 weeks.
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strong disagree on “he should.”

Drew provides a general service to us fans of the game, for free. I don’t want to lean in any harder than necessary on that sentiment, but what he does has always been useful and even though there is always some general ‘flaw’ with his product only a week or two into the season… that flaw is on us as readers and appreciators of the product at the end of the day. He’s been candid about how it’s imperfect, and the communal understanding of how it works is to also promote a norm of better statistical reading and general literacy toward predictive potential.

also, IIRC the work it takes for him to start all of the processes in the program (including the algorithm) is highly time-consuming, to the point that if he only started in the middle of the season he would not be able to get the program booted and churning due to his professional obligations.
 
Glenville Academy has gone out and upgraded many positions and created depth through the portal, and they also have a fantastic core returning, led by Jones, West, Witten, Johnson, and Agee. Glenville 39 - Avon 20.
 
bkmk1 said:
But the average fan can put better point spreads on many of the games. That is a fact.
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The average fan who “can put better point spreads” also likely avails themselves to qualitative points like roster turnover, transfers-in/transfers-out and injuries that Drew has no realistic way of incorporating.
 
The Dock said:
The average fan who “can put better point spreads” also likely avails themselves to qualitative points like roster turnover, transfers-in/transfers-out and injuries.
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One might also suggest that the "average fan" doesn't do any of that. Rather, the "average fan" knows not much more than the school name and perhaps some bit of a reputation.
 
Oil Filter said:
One might also suggest that the "average fan" doesn't do any of that. Rather, the "average fan" knows not much more than the school name and perhaps some bit of a reputation.
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depends on how extensive we are with “average fan”, what the willingness to research is of the “average fan” and what their baseline of information is for the teams setting a spread.
 
The Dock said:
depends on how extensive we are with “average fan”, what the willingness to research is of the “average fan” and what their baseline of information is for the teams setting a spread.
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Well, the average fan is not on here; you're more likely to find them sitting with the wife and/or kids in section 5 with a hot dog and a Coke. Accordingly, one might suggest that both their willingness to research and their baseline of information are non-existent. They probably can't name 10 kids on their own team, let alone on any other.
 
The Dock said:
The average fan who “can put better point spreads” also likely avails themselves to qualitative points like roster turnover, transfers-in/transfers-out and injuries that Drew has no realistic way of incorporating.
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So bottom line: his is garbage in, garbage out.
 
It's like the polls for college football. NONE of them mean anything until the very last 1 to decide who makes the final CFP final 4. Blow the rest of the weekly rankings up.
 
Oil Filter said:
A historical track record of ~80% accuracy wouldn't seem to be consistent with "garbage out". :confused:

But if you want to post your spreads for the 350 or so games this weekend, folks would be happy to look at them.
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I'll pass. I am content will self predicting and then that is the game I go see based on what I am interested in and what I think will be a good game. Works out pretty good.
 
cjb5656 said:
Both teams among the favorites to win the state championship in their divisions. Both off to impressive starts in 2023. Glenville won a classic last year at Avon 27-21. Might as well get the talk started.
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Last year’s game was for sure a classic! This year it’s another good one that the Tarblooders win a little more comfortably. Glenville 32 Avon 17.
 
I think the Glenville RB and secondary is the difference. When that kid gets going nobody wants to tackle him.
 
Oil Filter said:
One might also suggest that the "average fan" doesn't do any of that. Rather, the "average fan" knows not much more than the school name and perhaps some bit of a reputation.
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I would agree with that. The average fan uses the unreliable comparative scores and rarely knows enough about either team to even make an educated guess as to the point spread. Most of the time picking the winner is easy in HS football. Factoring in point spreads is another story. There were people on here all week predicting those NE Ohio vs the world games knowing ZERO about those other teams.
 
I think the point spreads correlate directly with the odds. That is, if a team has a 66% chance of winning, that's always a 7-point spread.

As to this game: I'm not much of a gambler, but if you gave me Glenville and 16, I'd be inclined to take it.
 
Oil Filter said:
I think the point spreads correlate directly with the odds. That is, if a team has a 66% chance of winning, that's always a 7-point spread.

As to this game: I'm not much of a gambler, but if you gave me Glenville and 16, I'd be inclined to take it.
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Glenville as a 16 point dog? I’d bet everything I own on Glenville +16. I wouldn’t bet them as a 16 point favorite though.
 
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