States
If UA beats St Charles, it won't be by dissolving a big lead. I agree that Gear will change the substitution pattern that he used in that early game and will deliberately use the clock more if it happens that way again. UA will have to be in the game or have the lead to beat St Charles. I give the edge to SC, but they will have to want it and play with the same defensive intensity that made them good all year. If they are satisfied just to be there for the first time, they could be beaten. UA is still a bit of an unknown. Their early exit from Princeton was just 3 weeks ago. I wasn't at the South regional so can't comment on their play there, but with not a lot of quality wins, they cannot possibly be as confident as last years team. I think tradition means very little once the game starts. That goes for all of the teams.
In watching SC all year, I would discount the theory that they are choking. Other teams have gotten better. Also, I don't think St Francis was clearly better in the 1-seed game at Regionals on Saturday. It was a 3-3 game and St Charles had the ball with 30 seconds to go on a man-up. St Francis made a stop and a 5-meter shot was called on a loose ball with 3 seconds to go in the game. That game could have gone either way. All year SC has made enough mistakes to be vulnerable, it is just that a couple of teams have now capitalized.
In the other game, I also like St Francis. They have clearly improved from a pretty mediocre team early on and do swim well. I wonder if their schedule against some good Michigan teams and away from playing the same teams week in and week out hasn't given them some edge. Their goalie can be good, but I don't think he has been consistently as good as TWs, SCs or possibly others. His play will be a big factor. They go a little deeper on scorers than Milford, which really struggles on the offensive end from what I can tell, especially when playing against good teams.