USC, UCLA looking to leave Pac-12 for Big Ten in 2024, though deal not yet finalized

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
That would be a giant mess in all of the other sports. It makes far more sense for them to be in a division/pod that has Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, etc.

NIL is the only saving grace Nebraska's football program may have. Everything else being equal a recruit in LA is likely going to choose any of the other schools in that pod over Nebraska due to the distance and the significant cultural differences between being in Lincoln and being on the west coast. I don't think you can understate how much further Lincoln is from LA not just geographically but also culturally than what they were from both the recruiting hot spots in Texas and the schools they played in the Big XII. They have to try to spend their way out of that problem regardless of who they play against in the Big Ten.
 
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Marcus - Then what do you do with Nebraska? From a football standpoint, I think it gives them a recruiting lifeline to Cali recruits. Since Nebraska left the B12 they have been no better than Purdue. Why? Because the state of Nebraska produces maybe 4 or 5 guys a year that can play B19 level football. Most of their recruits use to come from Texas but they have lost their presence there.

* Lincoln, Nebraska to LA is 1,500 miles
* Lincoln, Nebraska to Austin, Texas is 821 miles

It’s far and yea, a time zone or two away but based on the teams I proposed Nebraska draws the short straw. Hey, if you were Nebraska where would you rather play an away game: @Maryland or @Rutgers or go to LA?

At this point Notre Dame is not likely to be joining a conference, so let’s set that aside for another day.

For divisions, I think this would make the most sense of the rest of the teams you've selected:
A: Miami, FSU, North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Rutgers
B: Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana
C: Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois
D: USC, Oregon, UCLA, Washington, 2 of Stanford/Cal/Arizona/Utah/Colorado


As far as your comparison to Austin, TX, I'm not entirely sure what you're trying to prove? In the Big XII, UN had relatively short trips to Iowa State, Kansas, K State, Oklahoma State, etc. Sending them on trips to the PNW and California is an entirely different beast.
 

WJ-OSU-STEELERS

Well-known member
Marcus - I disagree with your belief that Notre Dame is unlikely to join a conference. If thevIrish do not and the B10 moves on without them then yes, add either Utah or Colorado for someone out west and put Nebraska in the division that ND was slotted it. The days of Nebraska playing Iowa St, Kansas, KState are long gone if they want to remain in big time college football. Traveling west is comparable to Nebraska’s travels to the state of Texas, that is all I was trying to show.

I believe the divisions need a couple of heavy weights, a 3rd team that is consistently good and a couple of light weights to fill out the division m. Thus I believe a OSU, UM, Penn St & MSU division is a bit too competitive and just a FSU & Miami with North Carolina being the 3rd best team is a but too light.

A lot of changes but also a lot of the same - the OSU, Bama’s, USC’s will do just fine and the Indiana’s, South Carolina’s, Purdue’s will struggle as always.
 
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Hammerdrill

Well-known member
That would be a giant mess in all of the other sports. It makes far more sense for them to be in a division/pod that has Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, etc.

NIL is the only saving grace Nebraska's football program may have. Everything else being equal a recruit in LA is likely going to choose any of the other schools in that pod over Nebraska due to the distance and the significant cultural differences between being in Lincoln and being on the west coast. I don't think you can understate how much further Lincoln is from LA not just geographically but also culturally than what they were from both the recruiting hot spots in Texas and the schools they played in the Big XII. They have to try to spend their way out of that problem regardless of who they play against in the Big Ten.
I think you are selling UNL short. We all know that college football isn't really that big a deal in LA. Where as it is a huge deal in Lincoln. Kids will recognize that and be drawn to it. I mean, Ohio State gets kids from all over, and while Columbus is likely more diverse than Lincoln, 18 year olds are not likely sophisticated enough to recognize the difference. The local's love for their football team is a stark contrast to what LA has to offer in that department. And if UNL starts playing games regularly in LA, they will certainly attract more attention.
 

bob99

Well-known member

This is basically THE source for NCAA swimming & diving news so it isn't some guy behind a smart phone with an idea. I get all but UVA unless the SEC is trying to get a little academic legitimacy but then again that is not what the SEC is about, my guess is they want to try and muscle into the Northern Va/DC market.
"According to the source, money is a major factor along with recruiting clashes. Florida reportedly doesn’t want Miami to join"
I listened to the Around the Oval podcast. The guest on the podcast was a west coast sportscaster who claimed that USC didn't want to take Oregon with them to the Big Ten. Seems to be a lot of behind the scenes sub stories.
 

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
I think you are selling UNL short. We all know that college football isn't really that big a deal in LA. Where as it is a huge deal in Lincoln. Kids will recognize that and be drawn to it. I mean, Ohio State gets kids from all over, and while Columbus is likely more diverse than Lincoln, 18 year olds are not likely sophisticated enough to recognize the difference. The local's love for their football team is a stark contrast to what LA has to offer in that department. And if UNL starts playing games regularly in LA, they will certainly attract more attention.
It's not a big deal, unless USC is really good, in which case it is a big deal then. Like Miami, LA is a destination/event city. No one cares unless you're good because there's so many other things going on, and I'd say that even goes for the Lakers and the Dodgers. With the exception of Oregon which has a more traditional college town setting, all of the other west coast schools are in destination/event markets with several pro teams.

While it's true college football is the ticket to have in Nebraska, Lincoln while a nice city is a ways down almost every "best college town" list I've ever seen compared to name brand Big Ten and SEC schools. There's a reason they haven't put it together yet without all the Texas exposure they had in the Big XII.

In the Big XII the majority of their league was drivable from DFW including the trips to the Oklahoma and Kansas schools, i.e. almost every away game was drivable for a player's family and friends. For a SoCal kid playing in Lincoln the only drivable trips would be the LA schools and Stanford/Cal if added, I.e. 2 to maybe at best 3 games a year. All of your home games, Oregon/Washington, and every other league game would be a flight for family to attend. For a program that hasn't been good in several years, they are going to have to outspend schools to make that appealing.
 

cjb5656

Well-known member
When Nebraska was a powerhouse their main recruiting bases were California, Texas, Florida and New Jersey. They got plenty of elite talent to Lincoln and produced a ton of pro players. If they can get a coach to pull the program out of the wilderness the talent will come.
 
Marcus - I disagree with your belief that Notre Dame is unlikely to join a conference. If thevIrish do not and the B10 moves on without them then yes, add either Utah or Colorado for someone out west and put Nebraska in the division that ND was slotted it. The days of Nebraska playing Iowa St, Kansas, KState are long gone if they want to remain in big time college football. Traveling west is comparable to Nebraska’s travels to the state of Texas, that is all I was trying to show.

I believe the divisions need a couple of heavy weights, a 3rd team that is consistently good and a couple of light weights to fill out the division m. Thus I believe a OSU, UM, Penn St & MSU division is a bit too competitive and just a FSU & Miami with North Carolina being the 3rd best team is a but too light.

A lot of changes but also a lot of the same - the OSU, Bama’s, USC’s will do just fine and the Indiana’s, South Carolina’s, Purdue’s will struggle as always.

There is no incentive for ND to join a conference as long as the playoff allows them to maintain the status quo.

In 2010, the Cornhuskers travel destinations were approximately 1,600 miles total in Big XII play (K State, Iowa State, OK State, TA&M). A single trip to U Wash is over 1,600 miles. Same for Oregon and Stanford. LA is shorter by about 100 miles. I suggest referencing a map before making such silly comparisons in the future.

The divisions are balanced enough. MSU is not a perennial power. We should not be fooled into thinking UM is somehow a major power again. Don't let nostalgia or a single season cloud your perspective. The setup preserves regionalism and the major rivalries. Also, they're great basketball divisions.
 
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nwwarrior09

Well-known member
If they can get a coach to pull the program out of the wilderness the talent will come.
The elite coach walked out the door 25 years ago, and for the last 25 years IMO you've been seeing what they really are in the present college game. At best periods of going 9-4/10-4 every year that are equivalent to the Earl Bruce years at Ohio State.

Two good articles I've read recently on the hay day of Nebraska football:

1) https://www.google.com/amp/s/vault....-when-such-a-colossus-ruled-the-game-are-over

Interesting read that goes into some of the factors behind Nebraska's mid-90s dominance. Following their slaughter of Florida in the Fiesta Bowl to cap off the 1995 season, Osborne went into a weird rant/crying episode about the Big XII limiting the recruiting of "Prop 48s", or partial and non academic qualifiers, of which Nebraska had a dozen on their roster and six that started/played starter minutes. He utilized the practice as much as if not more than anyone.

2)h ttp://sportstreatise.com/2018/01/1995-nebraska-and-the-myth-of-championship-recruiting/#

Interesting read from someone who had way too much time on their hands. For 1995's starters they guesstimated a recruit average of 2.8 stars on offense and 3.2 stars on defense. By my count, 15 out of 23 starters (lists co-starters at RB) were players 4-6 years removed from high school, with 5 of the other 8 being 3rd year players. 10/23 starters were actually from Nebraska, with no more than 2-3 starters from any other state.

They very heavily utilized redshirting and grayshirting (delayed enrollment), had a robust walk-on program that resulted in 3 starters in that particular year, and the previously mentioned willingness to bring in and redshirt/grayshirt partial and non-academic qualifiers and work them to eligiblity. These academic/social risk prospects were often among their best athletes, with 5 of them starting or playing heavily against Florida along the DL, at OLB, and at CB.

The magic was in being ahead of the times in regards to strength training and having a ton of players that spent 4, 5, or even 6 years in their strength program. The recruiting process/mix and player development model from that era couldn't possibly be duplicated today, and the warning signal from Osborne about "Prop 48s" after crushing Florida IMO foretold him getting out while on top two years later at only 60 years old. He knew it was over and that they were going to begin to slide.

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Auggie

Well-known member
The elite coach walked out the door 25 years ago, and for the last 25 years IMO you've been seeing what they really are in the present college game. At best periods of going 9-4/10-4 every year that are equivalent to the Earl Bruce years at Ohio State.

Two good articles I've read recently on the hay day of Nebraska football:

1) https://www.google.com/amp/s/vault....-when-such-a-colossus-ruled-the-game-are-over

Interesting read that goes into some of the factors behind Nebraska's mid-90s dominance. Following their slaughter of Florida in the Fiesta Bowl to cap off the 1995 season, Osborne went into a weird rant/crying episode about the Big XII limiting the recruiting of "Prop 48s", or partial and non academic qualifiers, of which Nebraska had a dozen on their roster and six that started/played starter minutes. He utilized the practice as much as if not more than anyone.

2)h ttp://sportstreatise.com/2018/01/1995-nebraska-and-the-myth-of-championship-recruiting/#

Interesting read from someone who had way too much time on their hands. For 1995's starters they guesstimated a recruit average of 2.8 stars on offense and 3.2 stars on defense. By my count, 15 out of 23 starters (lists co-starters at RB) were players 4-6 years removed from high school, with 5 of the other 8 being 3rd year players. 10/23 starters were actually from Nebraska, with no more than 2-3 starters from any other state.

They very heavily utilized redshirting and grayshirting (delayed enrollment), had a robust walk-on program that resulted in 3 starters in that particular year, and the previously mentioned willingness to bring in and redshirt/grayshirt partial and non-academic qualifiers and work them to eligiblity. These academic/social risk prospects were often among their best athletes, with 5 of them starting or playing heavily against Florida along the DL, at OLB, and at CB.

The magic was in being ahead of the times in regards to strength training and having a ton of players that spent 4, 5, or even 6 years in their strength program. The recruiting process/mix and player development model from that era couldn't possibly be duplicated today, and the warning signal from Osborne about "Prop 48s" after crushing Florida IMO foretold him getting out while on top two years later at only 60 years old. He knew it was over and that they were going to begin to slide.

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One thing not mentioned involving the strength program and the dubious nature overall of Nebraska’s ‘90s run was the heavy use of PEDs by the non-skill players. I know of a couple CLE area players that were recruited by Nebraska and one in particular was told to be happy he was a DB because he would not be required to add to his training with “supplements” like the linemen were basically required to do.
 

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
One thing not mentioned involving the strength program and the dubious nature overall of Nebraska’s ‘90s run was the heavy use of PEDs by the non-skill players. I know of a couple CLE area players that were recruited by Nebraska and one in particular was told to be happy he was a DB because he would not be required to add to his training with “supplements” like the linemen were basically required to do.
I didn't mention it, but in the one article if you read between the lines, the author notes that it seems PED use was probably prevalent.

In regards to schemes, etc., being extremely run heavy made it tenable to have shorter linemen lacking in measurables that would have been lower rated recruits if not the occasional unrated in-state walk-on after they put 4-6 years in that strength program plus the nutrition/"supplements". Within the scheme being smaller was a benefit as you have better run blocking leverage once you've developed the power/explosiveness in the weight room.
 

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
The core premise here is that NBC needs to add inventory to sandwich Notre Dame's games between to come anywhere close to that number from the current $22 million they're making on the backend of their current deal. To go big on the Domers they have to go further in on college football and need all day ad revenue bumps as opposed to having viewership for Notre Dame that is watching ESPN or Fox before and after Notre Dame plays.


 
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nwwarrior09

Well-known member
Second major point: while the Big 12 will be available shortly with media rights, the brand value within that league after Texas and Oklahoma exits is very weak regardless of where the teams may be ranked in the polls.

In terms of value to NBC, 2nd tier games via the Big Ten or SEC, or some primary tier content of the ACC if they could somehow buy-in to those rights, would be worth a lot more IMO.
 

Thavoice

Well-known member
Sorta thought it was a joke when this was first reported.

Hell, I dont even think of Nebraska, Rutgers and Md as B10 teams and now they add some from the west coast?

Sorta is killing a big tradition of college football. Not af an.
 

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
Sorta thought it was a joke when this was first reported.

Hell, I dont even think of Nebraska, Rutgers and Md as B10 teams and now they add some from the west coast?

Sorta is killing a big tradition of college football. Not af an.
One consequence of the football aspect of college athletics becoming big money. The brands that can bring the most value are consolidating to maximize profit. Conference realignment has been like corporate mergers or takeovers.
 

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
I thought Kevin Warren's press conference during Big Ten media days came off as being extremely bullish on both future Big Ten expansion and CFP expansion.

Some points that I thought stood out:

- He indicated he thought they were in a "five year period" of expansion/change.
- He spoke of now having content in all four time zones for all day viewership. None of the current schools are in the Mountain Time Zone, and in the current footprint only a slice of very rural western Nebraska is on MST.
- A lot of bravado about being "bold", "aggressive", etc. in regards to being a trendsetter and having people look back "30 years from now" and saying they were proactive, visionary, etc., in shaping the league and college athletics.

I came away with the impression that in the grand scheme of expansion, while the current media rights $$$ matters, the Big Ten could seriously consider some less than perfect expansion candidates as long-term plays. Whether it's emerging/growing markets (Colorado, Arizona) or non-AAU schools in major population/growing population centers (Florida State, Miami, Arizona State), I wouldn't regard anything as being off the table if there's long-term potential.
 
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The Big Ten will likely get their pick of the PAC 12 and then work on a two-fold strategy of gaining a Southern presence and hemming in the SEC via an ACC raid.

In the end, the Big Ten will absorb the SEC and the North will win again.
 

Auggie

Well-known member
I thought Kevin Warren's press conference during Big Ten media days came off as being extremely bullish on both future Big Ten expansion and CFP expansion.

Some points that I thought stood out:

- He indicated he thought they were in a "five year period" of expansion/change.
- He spoke of now having content in all four time zones for all day viewership. None of the current schools are in the Mountain Time Zone, and in the current footprint only a slice of very rural western Nebraska is on MST.
- A lot of bravado about being "bold", "aggressive", etc. in regards to being a trendsetter and having people look back "30 years from now" and saying they were proactive, visionary, etc., in shaping the league and college athletics.

I came away with the impression that in the grand scheme of expansion, while the current media rights $$$ matters, the Big Ten could seriously consider some less than perfect expansion candidates as long-term plays. Whether it's emerging/growing markets (Colorado, Arizona) or non-AAU schools in major population/growing population centers (Florida State, Miami, Arizona State), I wouldn't regard anything as being off the table if there's long-term potential.
The Regional SEC media guys were beating up Warren on Twitter for his press conference, many are blaming him for taking NCAA football in a more NFL minor leagues type direction. I find this interesting in that this round of expansion was brought on board by the SEC grabbing the best available programs from Big 12.
 

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
The Regional SEC media guys were beating up Warren on Twitter for his press conference, many are blaming him for taking NCAA football in a more NFL minor leagues type direction. I find this interesting in that this round of expansion was brought on board by the SEC grabbing the best available programs from Big 12.
Yep. I thought that his quotes below hinted heavily at that. If the "old college athletics" had any life left, it died with the two biggest brands in the Big 12 going to the SEC. You can either acknowledge that and adapt and change, or you can stand by and watch yourself become Sears and Roebuck and be relegated to history.
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nwwarrior09

Well-known member
Saw a rumor a few days ago that ESPN's initial offer to continue carrying the PAC amounted to revenue shares of $24.5 million per school as a starting point. I'd expect an increasing push to get off the sinking ship.

In regards to Warren's comments about time slots, etc., the Big Ten and Fox can effectively takeover the PAC 12/ESPN "after dark" 10:30EST west coast game by adding those schools.
 

Auggie

Well-known member
So the academics that run the UC system are really trying to muck this thing up for UCLA.


The progressive leaning board that runs this thing are pulling out all the stops including getting the current PAC 12 commissioner to add his weight behind the negatives including throwing out some figures without citing the source of said figures. My favorite is the dude even pandered to them by adding the travel runs contrary to the UC system's climate goals and works against UCLA's commitment to "climate neutrality" by 2025. This is the 1st time I have heard that NCAA sports have been tied to climate change.

My guess is if UCLA is forced out the B1G move they will have plenty of other PAC 12 teams calling looking to take the Bruins old slot.
 

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
Lol at that clown trying to claim any financial gains will be offset by travel expenses and "increased costs" (i.e. more competitive) administrative and coaching salaries.

I agree with the above. If the Big 10 just swooped in and added a few more that happened to include Cal, the outcry over this would disappear.
 

eastisbest

Well-known member
He's certainly justified in making the claim. It's not just football that will be traveling. It will be fairly easy to verify one way or the other, it's not worth getting too worked up about.
 

cjb5656

Well-known member
I understand the money, but I feel walking away from all those old rivalries and the whole PAC culture will ultimately be a big mistake for USC and UCLA unless schools are added to create a west coast division of the B1G.
 

Auggie

Well-known member
I understand the money, but I feel walking away from all those old rivalries and the whole PAC culture will ultimately be a big mistake for USC and UCLA unless schools are added to create a west coast division of the B1G.
The PAC 12 culture is long gone in college football, the ratings and attendance support this fact. The game has morphed into a Regional one that places an emphasis on the coach and the players are mercenaries with no tie to a specific region that see the game as a major they can take to help get a job in the NFL. Most of the PAC 12 schools are highly adverse to this and are top notch public academic institutions located in deep blue states that will never spend the $s on football to keep up with those programs located in deep red states. For the more conservative USC this move makes sense being a private school and you can already see their investment in the coach and the football major, along with the $s they will see flying to the Midwest and East Coast for games as the way to get back to relevance. UCLA's move has always only been about the $s and now their very blue board is trying to get them to drag along Cal, who is probably looking for $s to fund the trans archery team, or else they will cut bait and make them cut back on football investment and be happy trying to compete with the Oregon & Washington States on the west coast.

By the way if they could get the land next to or close to campus in Westwood, which happens to be one of the most expensive pieces of real-estate in the country, UCLA should build a 30-40K boutique like stadium ala what Northwestern is doing in Evanston. The Rose Bowl is a 30 minute drive without traffic and there is never no traffic in LA, what students want to make that schlep out to Pasadena for a home football game? The atmosphere at the Rose Bowl stinks and while the novelty of the LA transplant B1G alums making the trek to Pasadena to see their team play will be solid for a couple visits it will eventually wear off and unless the Bruins get very good more empty seats then filled seats will continue to be the norm at the cavernous Rose Bowl.

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