Troy Regional

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CCFREAK

Member
Thoughts on D1, D2, and D3? What teams will advance? D2 Boys looks tight? D3 Girls, a potential Top 10 team won't make state.
 
 
The course is in really good shape right now and could definitely handle some rain in case it gets any before and/or during Saturday.
 
My predictions
Boys- no surprises here.
1. Mason
2. St. X
3. Springboro
4. Centerville
5. Beavercreek
6. Tipp City

Girls - 2-5 could be any order or decided by a close margin
1. Mason
2. Beavercreek
3. Loveland
4. Centerville
5. Lakota West
 
EuclidandViren said:
My predictions
Boys- no surprises here.
1. Mason
2. St. X
3. Springboro
4. Centerville
5. Beavercreek
6. Tipp City

Girls - 2-5 could be any order or decided by a close margin
1. Mason
2. Beavercreek
3. Loveland
4. Centerville
5. Lakota West
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The #1 for Tipp City boys is what pushes them through.
 
Running Man 101 said:
The #1 for Tipp City boys is what pushes them through.
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I disagree. He makes no difference. #2 , #3 and #4 are their critical runners. He only matters if he runs poorly and only a few points. . They are good at #1 and #5. It could be rough at the other 3 positions. They don't have a terrible gap 1-5, but they do 1-2
 
psycho_dad said:
I disagree. He makes no difference. #2 , #3 and #4 are their critical runners. He only matters if he runs poorly and only a few points. . They are good at #1 and #5. It could be rough at the other 3 positions. They don't have a terrible gap 1-5, but they do 1-2
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Agree. Even if he has an “off” race it will likely only add a few points to their score. Those kids back in the pack can get passed by dozens if they are off.
 
EuclidandViren said:
My predictions
Boys- no surprises here.
1. Mason
2. St. X
3. Springboro
4. Centerville
5. Beavercreek
6. Tipp City

Girls - 2-5 could be any order or decided by a close margin
1. Mason
2. Beavercreek
3. Loveland
4. Centerville
5. Lakota West
Click to expand...
Agree on Mason, X, Springboro and Centerville for the Boys.

I think it could be really interesting after that. Beavercreek and Tipp are certainly good bets, but Walnut Hills, Loveland, Little Miami, and Moeller will be in the mix.

It’s always interesting how teams are built. Tipp is essentially scoring 4 runners and their 1-5 split could be 2 full minutes. Meanwhile, Walnut Hills 1-5 split could be 30 seconds.
 
D2 Boys (Top 4 qualify)

1. Cincinnati CHCA
2. Dayton Carroll
3. Maderia
4. Bellefontaine
--------------------
5. Oakwood
6. Indian Hill
 
CCFREAK said:
D3 Girls (Only 3 qualify)
1. West Liberty-Salem
2. Maderia
3. Ft. Loramie
-----------------------
4. Botkins
5. Versailles
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Nice job. Madeira and Ft. Loramie tied for second and their 6th runners finished 33rd and 34th, less than 2 seconds between them.
 
psycho_dad said:
I disagree. He makes no difference. #2 , #3 and #4 are their critical runners. He only matters if he runs poorly and only a few points. . They are good at #1 and #5. It could be rough at the other 3 positions. They don't have a terrible gap 1-5, but they do 1-2
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Little Miami moves on if they don't have that #1, just saying... Having the #1 means you really are only competing four runners vs a teams five.
 
Running Man 101 said:
Little Miami moves on if they don't have that #1, just saying... Having the #1 means you really are only competing four runners vs a teams five.
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…except if the other team has the #2 or #3 runner you don’t really have much of an advantage. I’ve heard this statement as long as I’ve been around the sport and I always wondered how far back people assume the second place team’s top runner is.
 
Running Man 101 said:
Little Miami moves on if they don't have that #1, just saying... Having the #1 means you really are only competing four runners vs a teams five.
Click to expand...
He could have run 25 seconds slower and Tipp still finishes in the same position. If their #5 runs 12 seconds slower they go from 6 to 7.
Tipp's. #2,3 and 4 only had about a 5-6 second margin for error for each or even combined.

We know they had him. His performance was not as critical as the others on his team. He had 2-4 times the margin of error as his teammates did.
 
psycho_dad said:
He could have run 25 seconds slower and Tipp still finishes in the same position. If their #5 runs 12 seconds slower they go from 6 to 7.
Tipp's. #2,3 and 4 only had about a 5-6 second margin for error for each or even combined.

We know they had him. His performance was not as critical as the others on his team. He had 2-4 times the margin of error as his teammates did.
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Agreed. Basically, all other things even, the difference between Kimmel having the worst race of his season and best race of his life would not have been reflected in the team score.

You cannot say the same for Tipp’s 2-5.

A low stick is great, but it you replaced the Gabelman, Kimmel, etc. with Jakob Ingebrigsten, it really doesn’t make their team any better.

Although, I would love to see what Ingebrigsten could run at the Woodridge course. I don’t think even he could get under 14:00 there.
 
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