The Official 2023 Cincinnati Reds Thread

[wolves82]

My main thoughts from the articles above:

1. The ownership structure of the Reds and Castellini’s promise not to ask the other owners for more cash is badly hurting the Reds from even having a possibility of acting like a true big spender during a contention window.

2. Was the teardown after 2021 done for baseball competition reasons, or because they possibly took losses in 2020?

3. Is the current very low payroll for 2023 actually saving up money to be spent later?

4. This ownership group needs to be broken up and the team needs to be sold to a majority owners who controls cash flow into the team.

5. Is the “break-even policy” a chief factor in why the Reds rarely if ever have made a true splash at the trade deadline in the few years they’ve actually been in contention?

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

Agree with all that, and the impending Diamond/Bally Sports bankruptcy has the Reds owners scared s__tless.

 

[14Red]

I’m not sure whether anyone here follows Steve Mancuso — @spmancuso — on Twitter, but he wrote a three-part synopsis diagnosing and exploring solutions for the Reds’ current payroll collapse. I found it instructive and worth a read. I’ll link the three parts here:

Fixing the Reds’ Payroll Collapse: Part 1

No matter the town, Major League fans want their favorite team to spend more on its players. We get a kick watching good baseball and love it when our team wins. Our assumption in pleading for more…

redscontentplus.com

Fixing the Reds’ Payroll Collapse: Part 2

Reds payroll was league average in 2019, 2020 and 2021. But in the past two budgets, Bob Castellini has cut player salaries back to about half what the typical team spends. This is the second of th…

redscontentplus.com

Fixing the Reds’ Payroll Collapse: Part 3

This post wraps up our series on the Reds payroll collapse. It explains how ongoing factors are working in perverse synergy to produce this outcome. We then get to solutions, although the obvious o…

redscontentplus.com

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

Excellent articles, should be a must read for any Reds fans and it really put the "Sell the team Bob" notion to rest. Investors have seen incredible gains in their investments, so selling makes no sense to anyone. Major League Baseball's main problem is lack of competitive balance and it's never going to be fixed under the current system. My guess is if you see another 10-20 years of only teams that spend the most money winning, then many of the smaller market teams may end up folding at some point. Would it be better for major league baseball to have say 18-24 teams instead of 30? The network TV deals will ultimately decide who gets to keep playing and who does not.

 

[wolves82]

Excellent articles, should be a must read for any Reds fans and it really put the "Sell the team Bob" notion to rest. Investors have seen incredible gains in their investments, so selling makes no sense to anyone. Major League Baseball's main problem is lack of competitive balance and it's never going to be fixed under the current system. My guess is if you see another 10-20 years of only teams that spend the most money winning, then many of the smaller market teams may end up folding at some point. Would it be better for major league baseball to have say 18-24 teams instead of 30? The network TV deals will ultimately decide who gets to keep playing and who does not.

That is what you took away from those articles? Maybe read them again.

Here is the problem, in a nutshell. The ownership/investor group was foolishly promised by Castellini that he would never ask them to invest more money. Who does that? All business investors know they are taking a risk, and sometimes businesses need a cash infusion from the investors to grow and thrive.

But since Castellini made that promise, he seems to make that his most important policy in running the business. Which is beyond foolish. Even Castellini himself said that the Reds are more dependent than most teams on attendance revenue. So the COVID year hurt them bad. yet he refused to ask the investors for more money to help the business. So rather than cut his bloated front office staff (see page 4 in that media guide), he cut players salaries. Reds lost more, attendance dipped again, and the death spiral continues. Krall made matters worse my spending big on Shogo, Moose and Minor. This business is circling the drain, and the CEO is afraid to ask the investors for more money.

The author has the solution. Bob and Phil need to ask the investors to inject money and stop the death spiral. Most of those investors are smart enough to know how business works. Protect your investment and the big annual returns by investing more money to prop up the business in a time of need. not a tough concept to grasp, all businesses do it at times. But not Bob. I don;t care if he sells his shares, but turn over the CEO spot to a business person with a brain and a backbone.

 

[Indiandad]

Excellent articles, should be a must read for any Reds fans and it really put the "Sell the team Bob" notion to rest. Investors have seen incredible gains in their investments, so selling makes no sense to anyone. Major League Baseball's main problem is lack of competitive balance and it's never going to be fixed under the current system. My guess is if you see another 10-20 years of only teams that spend the most money winning, then many of the smaller market teams may end up folding at some point. Would it be better for major league baseball to have say 18-24 teams instead of 30? The network TV deals will ultimately decide who gets to keep playing and who does not.

"Investors have seen incredible gains"....
"Many of the smaller market teams may end up folding"

Good grief.

 

[Indiandad]

Excellent articles, should be a must read for any Reds fans and it really put the "Sell the team Bob" notion to rest. Investors have seen incredible gains in their investments, so selling makes no sense to anyone. Major League Baseball's main problem is lack of competitive balance and it's never going to be fixed under the current system. My guess is if you see another 10-20 years of only teams that spend the most money winning, then many of the smaller market teams may end up folding at some point. Would it be better for major league baseball to have say 18-24 teams instead of 30? The network TV deals will ultimately decide who gets to keep playing and who does not.

I know I always look to close down a business after it has seen incredible gains.

I mean, who gets into business to make money anyway? We all do it for the passion of the work and sacrifice.

 

[Indiandad]

That is what you took away from those articles? Maybe read them again.

Here is the problem, in a nutshell. The ownership/investor group was foolishly promised by Castellini that he would never ask them to invest more money. Who does that? All business investors know they are taking a risk, and sometimes businesses need a cash infusion from the investors to grow and thrive.

But since Castellini made that promise, he seems to make that his most important policy in running the business. Which is beyond foolish. Even Castellini himself said that the Reds are more dependent than most teams on attendance revenue. So the COVID year hurt them bad. yet he refused to ask the investors for more money to help the business. So rather than cut his bloated front office staff (see page 4 in that media guide), he cut players salaries. Reds lost more, attendance dipped again, and the death spiral continues. Krall made matters worse my spending big on Shogo, Moose and Minor. This business is circling the drain, and the CEO is afraid to ask the investors for more money.

The author has the solution. Bob and Phil need to ask the investors to inject money and stop the death spiral. Most of those investors are smart enough to know how business works. Protect your investment and the big annual returns by investing more money to prop up the business in a time of need. not a tough concept to grasp, all businesses do it at times. But not Bob. I don;t care if he sells his shares, but turn over the CEO spot to a business person with a brain and a backbone.

It is absolutely incredible that the Reds have not figured out how to make money off of their franchise without putting butts in the seats. It's even more incredible that they haven't figured out that winning puts butts in the seats. It's even more incredible that they haven't figured out that signing talent to play is the key to winning AND putting butts in the seats at a higher price.

It's like the Keystone cops are running this franchise.

 

[AEW Champion]

For what it’s worth, I’d take Trevor Bauer back in a heartbeat for 2023 since the Dodgers are basically footing the bill.

The Reds still need an extra arm, so Bauer joining the rotation would be ideal.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[brianwr112]

Don't see Trevor Bauer pitching in MLB again.

 

[Smarty2022]

The Reds stink! They spend more money on Paying Players to Go Away than they do on Free Agents to come here! The Owners son is the biggest Dbag in Cincinnati!!!

 

[wolves82]

Excellent articles, should be a must read for any Reds fans and it really put the "Sell the team Bob" notion to rest. Investors have seen incredible gains in their investments, so selling makes no sense to anyone. Major League Baseball's main problem is lack of competitive balance and it's never going to be fixed under the current system. My guess is if you see another 10-20 years of only teams that spend the most money winning, then many of the smaller market teams may end up folding at some point. Would it be better for major league baseball to have say 18-24 teams instead of 30? The network TV deals will ultimately decide who gets to keep playing and who does not.

In addition to the incredibly illogical thought process that Indiandad pointed out (Investors making incredible gains leads to folding the business), look at what else he said.

After his 100+ posts saying that you don't need to spend on players to win, he finally admits he was wrong.

This post moves into the 14Red Hall of Shame. One of his best (ie. worst).

 

[14Red]

That is what you took away from those articles? Maybe read them again.

Here is the problem, in a nutshell. The ownership/investor group was foolishly promised by Castellini that he would never ask them to invest more money. Who does that? All business investors know they are taking a risk, and sometimes businesses need a cash infusion from the investors to grow and thrive.

But since Castellini made that promise, he seems to make that his most important policy in running the business. Which is beyond foolish. Even Castellini himself said that the Reds are more dependent than most teams on attendance revenue. So the COVID year hurt them bad. yet he refused to ask the investors for more money to help the business. So rather than cut his bloated front office staff (see page 4 in that media guide), he cut players salaries. Reds lost more, attendance dipped again, and the death spiral continues. Krall made matters worse my spending big on Shogo, Moose and Minor. This business is circling the drain, and the CEO is afraid to ask the investors for more money.

The author has the solution. Bob and Phil need to ask the investors to inject money and stop the death spiral. Most of those investors are smart enough to know how business works. Protect your investment and the big annual returns by investing more money to prop up the business in a time of need. not a tough concept to grasp, all businesses do it at times. But not Bob. I don;t care if he sells his shares, but turn over the CEO spot to a business person with a brain and a backbone.

So I guess you need to seek out the other investors and put them on the same level as the Castelini's. It just still amazes me that after all this handwringing and watching this team flounder over the last few years, the rallying cry is just "Sell the team, Bob"??? Fandom really amazes me. If we like the players, we blame the manager, coaches, owners, anyone else other than the guys that win and lose games. Spend money...Reds went out and got Shogo, Moose and Minor, it didn't work. Just spending money to spend money doens't guarantee success.

 

[14Red]

It is absolutely incredible that the Reds have not figured out how to make money off of their franchise without putting butts in the seats. It's even more incredible that they haven't figured out that winning puts butts in the seats. It's even more incredible that they haven't figured out that signing talent to play is the key to winning AND putting butts in the seats at a higher price.

It's like the Keystone cops are running this franchise.

 

[wolves82]

So I guess you need to seek out the other investors and put them on the same level as the Castelini's. It just still amazes me that after all this handwringing and watching this team flounder over the last few years, the rallying cry is just "Sell the team, Bob"??? Fandom really amazes me. If we like the players, we blame the manager, coaches, owners, anyone else other than the guys that win and lose games. Spend money...Reds went out and got Shogo, Moose and Minor, it didn't work. Just spending money to spend money doens't guarantee success.

Literally no one said that. Your reading comprehension skills are terrible. And I don't think you understand how businesses operate...

What I did say was that Bob needs to be like any other good CEO, and recognize when the business could benefit from an additional influx of cash from the investors. Therefore he is not fit to be CEO of the organization.

 

[AEW Champion]

So I guess you need to seek out the other investors and put them on the same level as the Castelini's. It just still amazes me that after all this handwringing and watching this team flounder over the last few years, the rallying cry is just "Sell the team, Bob"??? Fandom really amazes me. If we like the players, we blame the manager, coaches, owners, anyone else other than the guys that win and lose games. Spend money...Reds went out and got Shogo, Moose and Minor, it didn't work. Just spending money to spend money doens't guarantee success.

OK, I’ve gotta point out a couple of instances of inconsistency here:

1. You have blamed David Bell numerous times for being a bad manager.

2. We know that spending money just to spend it doesn’t guarantee success. That’s what everyone here told you last spring when we were baffled at bringing in Minor, Pham, Solano and Strickland after gutting the team. You defended those moves as proof they were trying; we told you it was a waste of money. Were the Reds spending money just to spend money (and fail at trying to save face)? Yes.

No one in their right mind is putting the other investors on the same level of blame as Castellini. He’s the CEO, the point person, the man with the power to call the shots. As the article pointed out, he can request a cash infusion and offer to buy anyone out who refuses to comply with the request. The other investors don’t have the power to call for a cash infusion, nor are they the ones overseeing the day-to-day baseball operations of the franchise. Of course, Bob isn’t overseeing those operations either, but he hired his doofus son for that role, so Bob bears any blame there.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[14Red]

OK, I’ve gotta point out a couple of instances of inconsistency here:

1. You have blamed David Bell numerous times for being a bad manager.

2. We know that spending money just to spend it doesn’t guarantee success. That’s what everyone here told you last spring when we were baffled at bringing in Minor, Pham, Solano and Strickland after gutting the team. You defended those moves as proof they were trying; we told you it was a waste of money. Were the Reds spending money just to spend money (and fail at trying to save face)? Yes.

No one in their right mind is putting the other investors on the same level of blame as Castellini. He’s the CEO, the point person, the man with the power to call the shots. As the article pointed out, he can request a cash infusion and offer to buy anyone out who refuses to comply with the request. The other investors don’t have the power to call for a cash infusion, nor are they the ones overseeing the day-to-day baseball operations of the franchise. Of course, Bob isn’t overseeing those operations either, but he hired his doofus son for that role, so Bob bears any blame there.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

There are going to be inconsistencies....it's sports for heaven's sake. And we've gone over this many times. They gutted the team of longer contracts to get to where they are today, with what two guys on the books for 2024? They did spend on Pham, Minor, Strickland but they were 1 year deals with opt outs. They didn't work. No one says much about the Brandon Drury find. That one worked.
I just am SO tired of the Sell the team Bob mentality. It's baseball, let's talk about the play of the field. And yes, I'm highly critical of Bell and I really feel his days are numbered. He does not inspire the team, he may be a great guy and good at front office stuff, but he lacks the ability to motivate.

 

[14Red]

Pitchers and catchers report in just a little over a month!!!!

 

[AEW Champion]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1613525914125754369

It looks like MLB is going to come up with its own solution for the Bally Sports bankruptcy / regional sports networks issue that seems to be looming.

This makes total sense to me. They already have MLB.tv, where you can pay one price for your favorite out-of-market team’s games or pay a modest amount more for every team’s games except the team whose market you’re in. I’ve used it the past three seasons for White Sox games plus various other games and I love the convenience of it.

It shouldn’t be that hard for them to implement additional tiers:

Tier 1: Favorite out-of-market team only
Tier 2: Full league, minus in-market team(s)
Tier 3: Favorite in-market team only
Tier 4: Full league, including every in-market team

I imagine if, for example, Bally Sports continues to broadcast Reds games on cable TV and/or the Bally Sports app, perhaps they’d get a cut from MLB of any MLB.tv subscription in their market whose subscription includes Reds games.

Where it would get dicey is markets where multiple teams are blacked out. For example, Iowa notoriously has been blacked out from the Chicago teams, the Cardinals, Royals, Twins and perhaps even Brewers.

It’ll interesting to see how this all plays out in the coming years, but it wouldn’t surprise me if MLB.tv becomes a necessary subscription for all Reds fans to watch Reds games.

Frankly, it makes good business sense for the league to steer as many people to MLB.tv. Once I got the package for White Sox games, I’ve become a more attuned fan to the league as a whole from using the package all spring and summer to watch lots of other games, too.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

EDIT: I know the tweet talks about adding in-market teams to cable companies’ MLB Extra Innings package, but I assume the same would be done with the MLB.tv streaming package. It would make no sense not to make in-market teams available on MLB.tv to keep from bleeding away cord-cutters who are/were baseball fans.

 

[14Red]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1613525914125754369

It looks like MLB is going to come up with its own solution for the Bally Sports bankruptcy / regional sports networks issue that seems to be looming.

This makes total sense to me. They already have MLB.tv, where you can pay one price for your favorite out-of-market team’s games or pay a modest amount more for every team’s games except the team whose market you’re in. I’ve used it the past three seasons for White Sox games plus various other games and I love the convenience of it.

It shouldn’t be that hard for them to implement additional tiers:

Tier 1: Favorite out-of-market team only
Tier 2: Full league, minus in-market team(s)
Tier 3: Favorite in-market team only
Tier 4: Full league, including every in-market team

I imagine if, for example, Bally Sports continues to broadcast Reds games on cable TV and/or the Bally Sports app, perhaps they’d get a cut from MLB of any MLB.tv subscription in their market whose subscription includes Reds games.

Where it would get dicey is markets where multiple teams are blacked out. For example, Iowa notoriously has been blacked out from the Chicago teams, the Cardinals, Royals, Twins and perhaps even Brewers.

It’ll interesting to see how this all plays out in the coming years, but it wouldn’t surprise me if MLB.tv becomes a necessary subscription for all Reds fans to watch Reds games.

Frankly, it makes good business sense for the league to steer as many people to MLB.tv. Once I got the package for White Sox games, I’ve become a more attuned fan to the league as a whole from using the package all spring and summer to watch lots of other games, too.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

EDIT: I know the tweet talks about adding in-market teams to cable companies’ MLB Extra Innings package, but I assume the same would be done with the MLB.tv streaming package. It would make no sense not to make in-market teams available on MLB.tv to keep from bleeding away cord-cutters who are/were baseball fans.

I don't care what happens, I just want to see my Reds!!

 

[wolves82]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1613525914125754369

It looks like MLB is going to come up with its own solution for the Bally Sports bankruptcy / regional sports networks issue that seems to be looming.

This makes total sense to me. They already have MLB.tv, where you can pay one price for your favorite out-of-market team’s games or pay a modest amount more for every team’s games except the team whose market you’re in. I’ve used it the past three seasons for White Sox games plus various other games and I love the convenience of it.

It shouldn’t be that hard for them to implement additional tiers:

Tier 1: Favorite out-of-market team only
Tier 2: Full league, minus in-market team(s)
Tier 3: Favorite in-market team only
Tier 4: Full league, including every in-market team

I imagine if, for example, Bally Sports continues to broadcast Reds games on cable TV and/or the Bally Sports app, perhaps they’d get a cut from MLB of any MLB.tv subscription in their market whose subscription includes Reds games.

Where it would get dicey is markets where multiple teams are blacked out. For example, Iowa notoriously has been blacked out from the Chicago teams, the Cardinals, Royals, Twins and perhaps even Brewers.

It’ll interesting to see how this all plays out in the coming years, but it wouldn’t surprise me if MLB.tv becomes a necessary subscription for all Reds fans to watch Reds games.

Frankly, it makes good business sense for the league to steer as many people to MLB.tv. Once I got the package for White Sox games, I’ve become a more attuned fan to the league as a whole from using the package all spring and summer to watch lots of other games, too.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

EDIT: I know the tweet talks about adding in-market teams to cable companies’ MLB Extra Innings package, but I assume the same would be done with the MLB.tv streaming package. It would make no sense not to make in-market teams available on MLB.tv to keep from bleeding away cord-cutters who are/were baseball fans.

Interesting, and yes it does make sense for MLB to to do this. If Diamond Sports/Bally do declare bankruptcy, I've read that there are scenarios where they do not make the payments to the MLB teams that they have contracts with. Of course, they lose broadcast rights if they fail to pay, and it all unravels fast, so that seems unlikely.

As a whole, Diamond/Bally seems like a shaky partner for the MLB and the teams. Going down the MLB.tv route seems smart. I think your proposed pricing tiers make sense. A Yankees fan could got Tier 2, since they will still have their local provider. People like 14Red could go Tier 3, if they only want their favorite team. Baseball fans could go Tier 4.

 

[14Red]

Trever Bauer has been released by the Dodgers. He's available.

 

[boothmark77]

Trever Bauer has been released by the Dodgers. He's available.

He would be the only reason I’d go see the Reds in person this year. But, Reds ownership is too much of a pu$$y to sign him.

 

[AEW Champion]

Trever Bauer has been released by the Dodgers. He's available.

The Reds 100% should go sign him. He’s familiar with here, he knows he needs to rebuild his value, he would be out of the mainstream eye, he would almost certainly sign a one-year deal with the Reds.

And the Reds badly need reliable starting pitchers. How do I connect Nick Krall with Rachel Luba to make this happen?

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[brianwr112]

The Reds and no other MLB team are touching Trevor Bauer. And he wouldn't be welcome in any MLB clubhouse.

The Dodgers are paying him $22M to stay away. They tried to give him away and couldn't get any team to do anything but laugh.

 

[Indiandad]

The Reds and no other MLB team are touching Trevor Bauer. And he wouldn't be welcome in any MLB clubhouse.

The Dodgers are paying him $22M to stay away. They tried to give him away and couldn't get any team to do anything but laugh.

Were the Dodgers offering to pick up his salary?

 

[14Red]

He would be the only reason I’d go see the Reds in person this year. But, Reds ownership is too much of a pu$$y to sign him.

I''m surprised the Dodgers didn't bring him back.

 

[wolves82]

I''m surprised the Dodgers didn't bring him back.

It was very public that his teammates hated him. Not surprising at all.

 

[14Red]

Last weekend, after the Buffalo Bills Nayheim Hines ran back the opening kickoff for a TD in an emotionally charged game, the Bills coming off of the awful injury by Hamlin, many were amazed and wondering if a superior being may have intervened. Many said they had never seen or felt that before.
It made me think about Michael Lorenzen's return from his father's death several years ago. If you don't remember or didn't see it, go to youtube and find Michael Lorenzen. ESPN did a piece on it. It's really chilling, but spiritual as well. There is not doubt that God had a hand in that. Lorenzen had been off for several days for the death of his dad, who was an addict and left the family when he was growing up. He'd re-newed their relationship when Michael was in college. And it was touch and go for a few years, and even into Lorenzen's pro career.
So Lorenzen's dad passes away, he goes and spends several days away from the team. He comes back and manager Brian Price puts him into a game in the 8th inning, gets through it but his emotions were getting the best of him.. I believe the Reds were ahead at that point so Price decides to let Lorenzen bat, kind of unusual, but Lorenzen was a two way player in college and could hit. He hit the first pitch over the right field wall - his first ever home run as a major leaguer.
For ALL those things to happen, in such an unusual circumstance. HE had to be there.

 

[AEW Champion]

So much for getting a reliable starting pitcher.

The Reds signed Luke Weaver to a one-year, $2 million deal today. Weaver was at one time highly regarded and was a first-round draft pick in 2014 for STL. He was traded to Arizona as part of the Paul Goldschmidt deal.

He had good numbers in 2019 but evidently couldn’t stay healthy, as he never started more than 13 games in a season from 2019 to 2021.

He was converted to a reliever for 2022 and was traded midseason to the Royals, where it appears he was essentially a mop-up bullpen guy.

His numbers fell precipitously after 2019, but he does throw hard. Supposedly he will be in the mix for a rotation spot.

The Reds’ rotation options are:

Lodolo
Greene
Ashcraft

Battle for fourth and fifth starter:
Justin Dunn
Luke Weaver
Luis Cessa
Connor Overton
Brandon Williamson
Levi Stoudt

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[boothmark77]

So much for getting a reliable starting pitcher.


The Reds’ rotation options are:

Lodolo
Greene
Ashcraft

Battle for fourth and fifth starter:
Justin Dunn
Luke Weaver
Luis Cessa
Connor Overton
Brandon Williamson
Levi Stoudt

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[wolves82]

Last weekend, after the Buffalo Bills Nayheim Hines ran back the opening kickoff for a TD in an emotionally charged game, the Bills coming off of the awful injury by Hamlin, many were amazed and wondering if a superior being may have intervened. Many said they had never seen or felt that before.
It made me think about Michael Lorenzen's return from his father's death several years ago. If you don't remember or didn't see it, go to youtube and find Michael Lorenzen. ESPN did a piece on it. It's really chilling, but spiritual as well. There is not doubt that God had a hand in that. Lorenzen had been off for several days for the death of his dad, who was an addict and left the family when he was growing up. He'd re-newed their relationship when Michael was in college. And it was touch and go for a few years, and even into Lorenzen's pro career.
So Lorenzen's dad passes away, he goes and spends several days away from the team. He comes back and manager Brian Price puts him into a game in the 8th inning, gets through it but his emotions were getting the best of him.. I believe the Reds were ahead at that point so Price decides to let Lorenzen bat, kind of unusual, but Lorenzen was a two way player in college and could hit. He hit the first pitch over the right field wall - his first ever home run as a major leaguer.
For ALL those things to happen, in such an unusual circumstance. HE had to be there.

Yes. "A superior being" cares deeply about an individual baseball or football game. But wars and weather disasters, starving children around the world? Well, a superior being can't be bothered with everything - one can only do so much, I guess. People and their self-centered beliefs amaze me...