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thavoice

Well-known member
The Montana example.......

The game was much different back then in terms of completion percentage, and then when he got in the NFL he was with a revolutionary offense, the west coast with Bill Walsh that brought the dink and dunk the NFL.

There are very few QBs who really do improve their completion percentage from college to the early part of their their NFL careers.


and lets be honest, of the 3 brought up, 2 of them are or will be HoFers
 

lotr10

Well-known member
Well I guess it's settled then - Josh Allen is a bust and sucks. But I've got to say after watching every game he played in this year I would have to disagree. No point in arguing though as we'll know in the next year or two whether he's going to be a great QB or a bust.

I still say though that the emphasis on % completion by a couple of posters is flat out nuts IMO. It's applying "analytics" to a sport where it doesn't hold much water. As for proof, here's a list of the % completion average for QB's with long NFL careers:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_cmp_perc_career.htm

Interesting how there's a couple of very average guys in the 65%% completion range. And as you go down the list in % completion things start to look interesting. Like down around 60% you get QB's like Favre, Aikmen & Kelly. But it's the list of QB's below 60% completion average that's a real eye opener:

Ken Stabler, Cam Newton, Dan Marino, Donavan McNabb, Dan Fouts, Bart Starr, Boomer E, Fran Tarkenton, Roger Staubach, John Elway (at 56.9%), Phil Simms, Johnny Unitas, Bob Griese, Len Dawson, John Hadle, Joe Namath, etc., etc., ..............
 

lotr10

Well-known member
The Montana example.......

The game was much different back then in terms of completion percentage, and then when he got in the NFL he was with a revolutionary offense, the west coast with Bill Walsh that brought the dink and dunk the NFL.

There are very few QBs who really do improve their completion percentage from college to the early part of their their NFL careers.


and lets be honest, of the 3 brought up, 2 of them are or will be HoFers
Cam Newton was under 60% his whole career then he got McCaffrey in the backfield and this year his % completion ballooned to 68%!
 

lotr10

Well-known member
It's not totally impossible but you're citing a couple of rare outliers. Like I said in my initial comments, "history" shows it's not the norm. There may be a few rare exceptions but it's not common.
Allen's path to the NFL was almost unique in his lack of any formal QB training.

I believe his upside is Cam Newton, John Elway or Brett Favre. His arm talent may be the best that the NFL has ever seen. His athleticism may be almost as good. He's a smart kid with a top wonderlick score and most importantly has shown the ability to improve when receiving top level coaching. His intangables include leadership. He never once threw a teammate under the bus in his post game comments. And believe me he had every reason to.

Like I said time will tell with Allen.
 

BR1986FB

Active member
Allen's path to the NFL was almost unique in his lack of any formal QB training.

I believe his upside is John Elway or Brett Favre.
:laugh::laugh: Yeah, don't choke on that red, white & blue Kool-Aid. I left Newton off for a reason, He doesn't belong in the same sentence as those two.
 

cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
I personally think he's a MUCH more athletic version of Derek Anderson. Checks all of the boxes physically and has a cannon for an arm but can't hit the broad side of a barn. Their completion %'s are also fairly comparable.
Fair assesment at this point.

He may just be one of those QBs that places undo confidence on his running ability, and that confidence subconsciously prevents a real commitment to improving footwork and vision. You can't see the whole field, even all your guys on half the field, if you are keeping tabs on your dip-out running lanes, too. Effective dip-out chops can be a crutch in the way that some people in all lines of work can do TOO WELL when they fly by the seat of their pants. Those people never fully prepare, so they never really put forth their best possible effort.

Then there is the fact that his throwing shoulder was trashed and surgically repaired ineffectively. He sure didn't have an Andrew Luck rehab, either - you can count on that. If the accuracy problems relate at all to the injury he may never get it together. If he gets hit the wrong way trying to reach for an EZ pylon or a first down marker one of these times when he cuts out and runs, any coaching he's had to improve may not matter. Ground chuck :dang:
 
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lotr10

Well-known member
Fair assesment at this point.

He may just be one of those QBs that places undo confidence on his running ability, and that confidence subconsciously prevents a real commitment to improving footwork and vision. You can't see the whole field, even all your guys on half the field, if you are keeping tabs on your dip-out running lanes, too. Effective dip-out chops can be a crutch in the way that some people in all lines of work can do TOO WELL when they fly by the seat of their pants. Those people never fully prepare, so they never really put forth their best possible effort.

Then there is the fact that his throwing shoulder was trashed and surgically repaired ineffectively. He sure didn't have an Andrew Luck rehab, either - you can count on that. If the accuracy problems relate at all to the injury he may never get it together. If he gets hit the wrong way trying to reach for an EZ pylon or a first down marker one of these times when he cuts out and runs, any coaching he's had to improve may not matter. Ground chuck :dang:

I don't know where you got all this from cabe but this is not the Josh Allen I saw this year. Allen's mechanics improved dramatically after just a couple of weeks working with Jordan Palmer. The kid is a hard worker and quick learner.

He doesn't have accuracy problems. He chooses to throw the ball down the field. You can say his judgement is suspect and he must mature but when watching him play he almost always hits what he aims at. Would he be more effective if he checked down more of his throws rather then trying to force the ball downfield? Maybe - but the Bills had abysmal talent this year for check down throws.

Folks who I respect both out of Buffalo and on the national scene who have studied this years tapes say Allen's ability to read the field improved dramatically as the season went on. When they judged EVERY Allen throw and compared it to every throw for the other rookies Allen's accuracy was about the same. Again he mostly hits what he aims for. That he doesn't take the check down is something he has to work on - to a point. IMO it's easier to teach a QB to check the pass down then it is to get him to push the ball down the field into tight coverage. Allen has the unique arm strength to make that an effective part of his game.

As for his running game, I suspect that Allen will mimic Cam Newton, Russel Wilson and Steve Young in that all three use the QB run to devastating effect. Allen is very big, athletic and surprisingly fast. Watch a tape of his runs and frankly he may be the best running QB in the NFL. Sure injury is a risk but Allen has the body type of Newton who has largely escaped injury while still using the run as a big part of his game.

I believe Allen's runs make him a more dangerous passer. Again he will never have Drew Brees accuracy but he'll be up around 60% and I bet starting next year he'll be at or near the top in yards per completion.
 

lotr10

Well-known member
:laugh::laugh: Yeah, don't choke on that red, white & blue Kool-Aid. I left Newton off for a reason, He doesn't belong in the same sentence as those two.
If there is one thing you need to know about Buffalo bills fans is that they do NOT look at their team through red, white & blue colored glasses. This is one of the most cynical, distrusting & complaining fan base in NFL history.

When Allen was drafted at least 80% of Bills fans went nuts. They screamed that the Bills had made an epic blunder. Allen had accuracy issues, he would never develop into a starting NFL QB, that the Bills had drafted the worst of the available QB's. There were multiple threads about how the Bills drafted the "wrong Josh".

And the reaction of the Western NY sports writers was even worse! First these guys are the most miserable, pessimistic jerks to cover any NFL team and they were unanimous in hating the Allen pick.

But as the camps & preseason progressed more and more fans, seeing him at the open practices, started to notice his accuracy wasn't that big of a problem and his arm strength if anything was understated. Ditto for the sour Bills sports writers who started to whisper that "hey, this guy might be special".

By the end of the season most Bills fans and sports writers had come to the same conclusion, based on watching him play, that Allen was their QB of the future and that he might be a special talent on the rise. Where a poll on 2 Bills Drive right after the draft had 90% of Bills fans hating the pick, a poll after the season had 90% of the fans loving the pick and saying Allen was the guy.

Sure he could flounder going forward or never get any better. But the hate fest aimed at him by some seems out of place. I found it very interesting the amount of venom directed his way leading up to and immediately after the draft. He's a great kid and IMO a potentially great QB. As I keep saying only time will tell.
 

BR1986FB

Active member
If there is one thing you need to know about Buffalo bills fans is that they do NOT look at their team through red, white & blue colored glasses. This is one of the most cynical, distrusting & complaining fan base in NFL history.

When Allen was drafted at least 80% of Bills fans went nuts. They screamed that the Bills had made an epic blunder. Allen had accuracy issues, he would never develop into a starting NFL QB, that the Bills had drafted the worst of the available QB's. There were multiple threads about how the Bills drafted the "wrong Josh".

And the reaction of the Western NY sports writers was even worse! First these guys are the most miserable, pessimistic jerks to cover any NFL team and they were unanimous in hating the Allen pick.

But as the camps & preseason progressed more and more fans, seeing him at the open practices, started to notice his accuracy wasn't that big of a problem and his arm strength if anything was understated. Ditto for the sour Bills sports writers who started to whisper that "hey, this guy might be special".

By the end of the season most Bills fans and sports writers had come to the same conclusion, based on watching him play, that Allen was their QB of the future and that he might be a special talent on the rise. Where a poll on 2 Bills Drive right after the draft had 90% of Bills fans hating the pick, a poll after the season had 90% of the fans loving the pick and saying Allen was the guy.

Sure he could flounder going forward or never get any better. But the hate fest aimed at him by some seems out of place. I found it very interesting the amount of venom directed his way leading up to and immediately after the draft. He's a great kid and IMO a potentially great QB. As I keep saying only time will tell.
If you think Allen's upside is Favre or Elway, you're drinking something. It may not be Kool-Aid.
 

lotr10

Well-known member
If you think Allen's upside is Favre or Elway, you're drinking something. It may not be Kool-Aid.
"Upside" means just what it says: this is the highest level I see this QB reaching based on his physical attributes & skills shown to date. It doesn't mean that I believe Allen is on the cusp of being Elway or Favre. I don't as he has a LONG way to go before he even approaches their level. And for sure the odds are long that he ever makes it and the chances he falls short are high at this point.

As an aside, when I look at Baker Mayfield, I would say his upside is that of Drew Brees. Again doesn't mean that I think he's playing anywhere near the level of Brees today but it wouldn't shock me if one day he doesn't get there. But at the moment he's as far away from Brees as Allen is from Elway.

BTW, going into last years draft I ranked the QB's in the following way:

* Baker Mayfield - best combination of upside and the ability to start in the NFL right away.

* Josh Allen - least ready to start in the NFL but highest upside.

* Sam Darnold - could be ready to star but has less of an upside then Allen.

* Josh Rosen - not ready to start and a lower upside then the QB's above him.

Frankly, Allen exceeded my expectations, particularly after he came back from injury. He wasn't ready to start and he was surrounded by the WORST offensive talent in the NFL. Yet he improved dramatically from his first 5 games to his last 6 games (injury in between).
 

cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
Miami QB depth chart looking a bit thin....



...then there's this - :laugh:


Former NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick is interested in becoming the Miami Dolphins' starting quarterback in 2019, CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora reported on Friday.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/03/15/colin-kaepernick-interested-miami-dolphins-qb-job






That should play well in Miami.
 
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ceebass13

Member
The options are becoming few and far between. Short of a deal for Rosen or Eli, there are not many available starting even potentially options.
 

BR1986FB

Active member
It is kind of amazing how middle of the road QB's can survive in the NFL.
I was hoping the Browns would've signed him. He's not (generally) the type to get you to the playoffs (as a starter) but he is a good plug & play QB that can get you through 3-4 games before they figure him out if your starter goes down.
 

ceebass13

Member
I was hoping the Browns would've signed him. He's not (generally) the type to get you to the playoffs (as a starter) but he is a good plug & play QB that can get you through 3-4 games before they figure him out if your starter goes down.
I agree and that is why he has carved out a long career for himself.

Every couple of year, teams think he is a starter and pay him accordingly.
 

14Red

New member
Ryan Fitzpatrick is good enough to start for alot of NFL teams. He'll actually be an upgrade in Miami.

Tannehill is a good back up for the Titans. Remember Blaine Gabbert started the last game last year and the Titans needed a win.
 

thavoice

Well-known member
I was surprised he retired.
Figured it was just the typical end of season woe is me act so many players go through after a long arduous season.


I think this is the final straw for the franchise. If Gronk really though they could repeat, I think he stays.


Great, Great run
 
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