Harbins...Get Lost

AllSports12

Moderator
The more qualifiers you add to a "system" the more potential for unintended consequences. Margin of victory is simply a bad metric to use.

It's High School sports for crying out loud. If we spent half as much energy trying to get the kids taught we'd be sitting like some countries that actually value education.
 

y2h

Well-known member
Wins are NOT the only thing that matters. If the teams were all playing similar schedules/teams like in the NFL, THEN wins matter. If you take 2 D2 schools and team A is beating D4 Goat Shepherds Memorial High by a TD and team B is losing a 24-23 game to St Eds, it takes a pretty incredible moron to argue that Team A is better than Team B, yet that's what the Harbin system does, and what all the defenders of it do by proxy.

WW did not make their own bed, and it's not on them. When 99% of the public knows/understands that they are arguably the best team in the region and 100% one of the top 2 teams in the region and they don't make the playoffs at all, the issue is with the playoff system.
Yes it is on them...dont give up 51 and 42 twice in your 3 losses. That's less than championship caliber defense I dont care who you are playing.
 

USA70PP

Well-known member
Allow me to be a bit more absurd. Do away with Harbins, don't have the coaches vote on seeding and play an 8 game regular season. Then put up a bracket with everyone in the region and then draw names out of a hat.
 

Sykotyk

Well-known member
Allow me to be a bit more absurd. Do away with Harbins, don't have the coaches vote on seeding and play an 8 game regular season. Then put up a bracket with everyone in the region and then draw names out of a hat.
Essentially what Indiana does.
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
What happens if things go well and the playoffs / tournament is successful letting all the teams have a chance? Those of you that don't like it, are you open to changing your mind if it is successful? Or, is there something about having week 3, with your running back out, being the game that determines if you get into the playoffs or not? Is there something about the coach having to decide to play an injured kid instead of sitting him and letting him heal fully that makes or breaks a season for you?
 

L Hand

Well-known member
In that case, you basically have 8 scrimmages.
Yes, at the very least, the playoffs need to be seeded. Look, I think at least in Division 1, letting in about half the field is a pretty fair balance. If other divisions need another week to let in half the field - fine - take away a week for them from the regular season and add one to the postseason.
 

Mr. Slippery

Well-known member
If they're going to let 12 teams into the playoffs starting next year, then they might as well let all teams in while providing an opportunity to "opt out." If everyone makes the playoffs, then nobody with a poor record will glorify it as a great accomplishment just like nobody glorifies a team's entrance into the basketball tournament with a poor record.

Use the Harbins to seed if you wish. It can't be any worse than some of the stunts coaches pulled to seed this year's playoff regions. Like most models, the Harbins obviously work better with a larger sample size. After 6 weeks as we had for this regular season, less than 40% of the data is available that would be used during a normal 10-game regular season
 

y2h

Well-known member
If they're going to let 12 teams into the playoffs starting next year, then they might as well let all teams in while providing an opportunity to "opt out." If everyone makes the playoffs, then nobody with a poor record will glorify it as a great accomplishment just like nobody glorifies a team's entrance into the basketball tournament with a poor record.

Use the Harbins to seed if you wish. It can't be any worse than some of the stunts coaches pulled to seed this year's playoff regions. Like most models, the Harbins obviously work better with a larger sample size. After 6 weeks as we had for this regular season, less than 40% of the data is available that would be used during a normal 10-game regular season
Yes let everyone in...and destroy the regular season.
 

Over The Hills

Well-known member
As a Winton Woods Warrior supporter ..... LET'S BE CLEAR about some things since WW keeps being brought up...

WW DID NOT GET SCREWED in 2019 by missing the playoffs.
There are no WW fans complaining on here that the system was unfair.
Went 6-3 against a very tough schedule and didn't get in.
This was discussed endlessly last year.
Whatever the system is, the Warriors will try to make it and get in.
...
In 2019 Winton Woods:

* Defeated Ohio D3 2019 State Champion Trotwood 36-7
* Defeated Ohio D2 2019 State Champion LaSalle 26-21

* Lost to Missouri 2017 & 2018 State Champion Christian Bros 42-31 in St Louis
* Lost to Ohio D1 2018 State Champion St Edward 51-31
* Lost to Ohio D1 2019 Runners up Elder 42-37 .... Elder also lost to St Edward and LaSalle in 2019.
...
Scheduling issues are now resolved since they are 1st year members of the ECC so these crazy schedules are gone.
BUT WW will still have the attitude of will play anyone, anywhere, anytime.
LaSalle and Trotwood were the non-league games this season before COVID blew up schedules.
...

RIP to Winton Woods Yappi poster DonMagicRon who proudly used to state:

"IRON SHARPENS IRON"

Damn straight Ron.
 

AllSports12

Moderator
Under the Harbin system, weeks 9 & 10 are already "playoff" games for many teams. How many threads do we see on here that are "win and we're in" or "lose and we are out" themed?

Having 10 weeks to play a regular season creates so many things that are special about HS Football. Rivalry games, conference championships, rivalry games that decide conference championships, rivalry games that decide if you advance to week 11...... are just a handful of examples.

The Harbins aren't going anywhere, nor should they.
 

Mr. Slippery

Well-known member
Yes let everyone in...and destroy the regular season.
If there is a game on the team's schedule, the players, coaches, and fans want to win it. The regular season would still matter for seeding purposes and for teams who are trying to win their leagues.

If I had my way, there would be no more than 6 divisions for 11-man football, 1 division for 8-man football, and only 4 teams per region would be qualifying. The expansion to 8 teams per region reduced the incentive for many playoff caliber teams to take risks with their schedules. As a supporter of a smaller school, the addition of a 7th division felt like it greatly diluted the competition among what is now DV-DVII. If adding that 7th division wasn't jumping the shark, then expanding to 12 teams per region next year is jumping the shark and a whole lot more. That'll be 336 teams making the playoffs which represents more than 45% of teams that play 11-man football. As I stated earlier, I'd rather see the playoff system be contracted, but that's never going to happen. With that being the case, quit delaying the inevitable and rip off the Band-Aid. Let everyone in, and add 1 more week to the playoffs.

I admit that the biggest obstacle would be the likelihood of a shorter regular season which prevents many schools from having at least 5 home games, and I fully realize how much athletic departments rely on either having at least 5 home games or having a way to generate revenue equivalent to having 5 home games.
 

y2h

Well-known member
If there is a game on the team's schedule, the players, coaches, and fans want to win it. The regular season would still matter for seeding purposes and for teams who are trying to win their leagues.

If I had my way, there would be no more than 6 divisions for 11-man football, 1 division for 8-man football, and only 4 teams per region would be qualifying. The expansion to 8 teams per region reduced the incentive for many playoff caliber teams to take risks with their schedules. As a supporter of a smaller school, the addition of a 7th division felt like it greatly diluted the competition among what is now DV-DVII. If adding that 7th division wasn't jumping the shark, then expanding to 12 teams per region next year is jumping the shark and a whole lot more. That'll be 336 teams making the playoffs which represents more than 45% of teams that play 11-man football. As I stated earlier, I'd rather see the playoff system be contracted, but that's never going to happen. With that being the case, quit delaying the inevitable and rip off the Band-Aid. Let everyone in, and add 1 more week to the playoffs.

I admit that the biggest obstacle would be the likelihood of a shorter regular season which prevents many schools from having at least 5 home games, and I fully realize how much athletic departments rely on either having at least 5 home games or having a way to generate revenue equivalent to having 5 home games.
I agree with going back to 6 divisions. I was against the expansion to 8 per region at first but I think it's worked well. 12 is a bridge too far for me. 4 left a lot of quality teams at home. Once you get past 8 there is a lot of mediocrity.
 

Spread All Day

Well-known member
Harbin system is the only one that takes human bias out of the equation. That matters. Win differential creates this monster that’s going to have teams beating teams by 80 points instead of subbing backups and so forth. Keep it. They’re already moving to 12 teams per region. Stop crying.
 

kingpin2010

Well-known member
I think going from 8 to 12 is fine as long as we have pre determined regions and don’t just take the top 32. You can find plenty of divisions where one region is stacked and the 11th place team would’ve easily been in the top 8 in other regions. That’s what the move to 12 is to remedy.

A good example of this that I remember was in 2018, D6R21 had 2 schools tie for 9th with a harbin total that would’ve got them 4th, 6th, and 6th in the other D6 regions
 

KramericaIndustries

Active member
Harbin system is the only one that takes human bias out of the equation. That matters. Win differential creates this monster that’s going to have teams beating teams by 80 points instead of subbing backups and so forth. Keep it. They’re already moving to 12 teams per region. Stop crying.
Laughably false. ANY computer model takes human bias out of the equation. And there are an infinite number of possible models that can do it better than Harbin can.

But back to the original point, even a system RANK with bias like this years' vote was produced a more sensible seeding/bracket than Harbin would have.

Is LaSalle the 6th best team in R8?
Is Mass Washington the 6th best team in R7?

The Harbin computer thinks so.
 

Raylan_Givens

Well-known member
Laughably false. ANY computer model takes human bias out of the equation. And there are an infinite number of possible models that can do it better than Harbin can.

But back to the original point, even a system RANK with bias like this years' vote was produced a more sensible seeding/bracket than Harbin would have.

Is LaSalle the 6th best team in R8?
Is Mass Washington the 6th best team in R7?

The Harbin computer thinks so.
Massillons Harbin rank is easy to understand: 1) only played 5 games that count in rankings. 2) they only beat 1 team with a winning record

Think most agree Harbins could be improved but you seem to really be amped up about them.
 

algernonsidney

Active member
The Harbin system is simple enough that anybody can figure it out. It's easy for anybody else to spot a mistake. That's a good thing. Ulimately, the goal of the system is not to determine the state champion. It's to pick a number of teams who have the best chance to win a championship.
 

Spread All Day

Well-known member
Laughably false. ANY computer model takes human bias out of the equation. And there are an infinite number of possible models that can do it better than Harbin can.

But back to the original point, even a system RANK with bias like this years' vote was produced a more sensible seeding/bracket than Harbin would have.

Is LaSalle the 6th best team in R8?
Is Mass Washington the 6th best team in R7?

The Harbin computer thinks so.
What Other computer model do we have bud?
 

cincifbfan

Well-known member
Laughably false. ANY computer model takes human bias out of the equation. And there are an infinite number of possible models that can do it better than Harbin can.

But back to the original point, even a system RANK with bias like this years' vote was produced a more sensible seeding/bracket than Harbin would have.

Is LaSalle the 6th best team in R8?
Is Mass Washington the 6th best team in R7?

The Harbin computer thinks so.
Not true at all. Just because it's computer doesn't mean it cannot be influenced by humans. Margin of victory is a prime example.

As for your rankings of LaSalle and Massillon, as the sayings go "Any given Friday night" and " That's why we play the game."

You come on here yearly with the same flawed arguments. It simply doesn't hold up.
 

1 time

Active member
The more qualifiers you add to a "system" the more potential for unintended consequences. Margin of victory is simply a bad metric to use.

It's High School sports for crying out loud. If we spent half as much energy trying to get the kids taught we'd be sitting like some countries that actually value education.
. Exactly ! 👏. But Bob and Sue are getting a full ride scholarship. Wow
 

serpico

Well-known member
As a supporter of a smaller school, the addition of a 7th division felt like it greatly diluted the competition among what is now DV-DVII.
But it really didn’t. Adding a 7th division subtracted 3-4 teams from each small-school region but 12-13 from each D1 region. D1 is the only division that truly got diluted.
 

LELL

Active member
As a Winton Woods Warrior supporter ..... LET'S BE CLEAR about some things since WW keeps being brought up...

WW DID NOT GET SCREWED in 2019 by missing the playoffs.
There are no WW fans complaining on here that the system was unfair.
Went 6-3 against a very tough schedule and didn't get in.
This was discussed endlessly last year.
Whatever the system is, the Warriors will try to make it and get in.
...
In 2019 Winton Woods:

* Defeated Ohio D3 2019 State Champion Trotwood 36-7
* Defeated Ohio D2 2019 State Champion LaSalle 26-21

* Lost to Missouri 2017 & 2018 State Champion Christian Bros 42-31 in St Louis
* Lost to Ohio D1 2018 State Champion St Edward 51-31
* Lost to Ohio D1 2019 Runners up Elder 42-37 .... Elder also lost to St Edward and LaSalle in 2019.
...
Scheduling issues are now resolved since they are 1st year members of the ECC so these crazy schedules are gone.
BUT WW will still have the attitude of will play anyone, anywhere, anytime.
LaSalle and Trotwood were the non-league games this season before COVID blew up schedules.
...

RIP to Winton Woods Yappi poster DonMagicRon who proudly used to state:

"IRON SHARPENS IRON"

Damn straight Ron.
That is a great post. I always root for WW. Good luck!
 

KramericaIndustries

Active member
Not true at all. Just because it's computer doesn't mean it cannot be influenced by humans. Margin of victory is a prime example.

As for your rankings of LaSalle and Massillon, as the sayings go "Any given Friday night" and " That's why we play the game."

You come on here yearly with the same flawed arguments. It simply doesn't hold up.
"Any given Friday night" and " That's why we play the game." are your explanations as to why it is OK to have a hopelessly flawed ranking system that frequently screws over better teams with lower seeds, or sometimes even completely missing the playoffs?

Congratulations. You've made a comment so dumb that I can't respond further to it.
 

USA70PP

Well-known member
"Any given Friday night" and " That's why we play the game." are your explanations as to why it is OK to have a hopelessly flawed ranking system that frequently screws over better teams with lower seeds, or sometimes even completely missing the playoffs?

Congratulations. You've made a comment so dumb that I can't respond further to it.
Thank goodness!!!
 

cincifbfan

Well-known member
"Any given Friday night" and " That's why we play the game." are your explanations as to why it is OK to have a hopelessly flawed ranking system that frequently screws over better teams with lower seeds, or sometimes even completely missing the playoffs?

Congratulations. You've made a comment so dumb that I can't respond further to it.
Ok, well at least I'm not advocating for rewarding losses. As I stated by your logic, a team can go 0-10, but have ten "quality losses" and still be awarded with a trip to the playoffs. Let's say a team loses all 10 games by 1 point, but lost to: Elder, X, Ed's, Iggy, Pick Central, Mentor, LaSalle, Lakota West, Hoban, & WW, they should be in the playoffs because "of their impossible schedule." Come on man, and I'm the one with dumb comments?

Get a grip and realize your argument doesn't hold up under any scenario. Just win baby!!
 

L Hand

Well-known member
What Other computer model do we have bud?
Seriously? You think the Harbin is the only computer that exists? Jeff Sagarin (by himself) has 3 different ones (all better than the Harbin)!! The Harbin is probably one of the world's shittiest computer models. Still, the world's shittiest computer model is better than a coaches poll.

Responding to Kramerica, you can't really use what the Harbin would have looked like this year to trash the Harbin - way too many weird instances and not enough games. As you know for any computer model, the more games and the more input, the greater the accuracy.
 
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