Very reasonable analysis and you could be spot on! So many schools and individuals to keep an eye on this year... I can hardly wait!I don't know if I see Thatcher and Bailey scoring at the state level; I even think Mpoki will struggle to score at the state level. The 200 free relay will most likely score, but in the 14th-16th range, and I'm confident Hove will score in two events.
I'm still sticking to my prediction that kings and Lakota east will out score mason at the classic and state level. I expect to see Kolosieke and mathus both score in two events and both of them to be in the final heat for at least one event. Matt McDonald will score very high at the state level in two events, and I think his brother will score too. Lakota also has the potential to take a relay to state as well.
As for Anderson, Turpin, and Lebanon there isn't enough at the top. Turpin and Anderson will have strong district and conference appearances, and possibly compete with mason's depth; however, Lebanon will be lucky to have a state qualifier this year.
Everyone knows that districts will be dominated by the GCL. There are very few spots at the top that are available, and there are only one or two individuals from a handful of teams that are capable of filling them. With Mason having 5 or 6 quality swimmers they could do well at districts, but again I don't think they will be much of a factor at state.