Gambling thread

Arrogate

Well-known member
8 wins first leg at 8-1. 1 wins 2nd leg at 6-1. Need the 9 here to close it out. For a $1 bet this cost me $6 bucks and if the 9 wins it will pay $278.10.
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
Funny you mention jockeys and collusion. There are 2 brothers Irad and Jose Ortiz and many think they collude. I mentioned earlier that I liked Madame Uno and saw this thread on Twitter...

https://mobile.twitter.com/EMD4ME/status/1099816722838769664


Fishy to say the least. An good solution would be to couple them in entries even if they arent colluding bc it would alleviate bettors minds. Bad optics imo
 

JcksnPlrBrs2002

Well-known member
Funny you mention jockeys and collusion. There are 2 brothers Irad and Jose Ortiz and many think they collude. I mentioned earlier that I liked Madame Uno and saw this thread on Twitter...

https://mobile.twitter.com/EMD4ME/status/1099816722838769664


Fishy to say the least. An good solution would be to couple them in entries even if they arent colluding bc it would alleviate bettors minds. Bad optics imo

After taking a cursory look at the differences between how things are run domestically and abroad, I think this is a symptom of the way horse racing is regulated in our country. It's done at the state level, so you end up with a ton of tiny little local circuits that are often downright amateurish in nature. They're absolutely prime for collusion/corruption/short-sightedness/etc. Can you imagine how messed up professional baseball would be if it was just a loose collection of regional leagues? I don't think it's the only thing hurting it (there are a lot of factors here), but I think it would be in the best interest of the horse racing industry to move towards a national regulating body of some kind, stop cannibalizing itself locally, better coordinate with the national casino companies that are indirectly competing with its action, take some selective cues from organizations like NASCAR, and condense the product to have fewer but more professional races with more condensed and consistent top level talent. It wouldn't solve all of the collusion and corruption problems, but I think it would be much better.
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
The penn st frat kid rumor was funny. Caused books to stop taking bets and a huge change in the odds.


I wouldn't personally want to book bets where even one person knows the result ahead of time
 

JcksnPlrBrs2002

Well-known member
So the Oscars were last night and it appears New Jersey took action on the outcome making it the 1st US state to take legal $s on the event: https://www.playusa.com/2019-oscars-winners-betting-odds/

Not a lot of value in these bets but if they can gain new players, generally speaking gay men are not a casino's target demographic, could be a net gain for the business.
It always kind of cracks me up what people are willing to bet on.

I was once sitting at a casino bar, chatting with the bartender while I was waiting on someone to finish up and cash out. Some random came up and asked us if we knew what the line was on the NFL's Pro Bowl.

I simply pulled one of those "do you have a gambling problem" hotline number cards from the stack sitting at the end of the bar and handed it to him without saying a word. The bartender started choking on the soda they were drinking.
 

Auggie

Well-known member
The penn st frat kid rumor was funny. Caused books to stop taking bets and a huge change in the odds.


I wouldn't personally want to book bets where even one person knows the result ahead of time
What, this doesn't look like a high-jinx free way to deliver the envelopes that unveil the outcome?



 

my2sense

Well-known member
After taking a cursory look at the differences between how things are run domestically and abroad, I think this is a symptom of the way horse racing is regulated in our country. It's done at the state level, so you end up with a ton of tiny little local circuits that are often downright amateurish in nature. They're absolutely prime for collusion/corruption/short-sightedness/etc. Can you imagine how messed up professional baseball would be if it was just a loose collection of regional leagues? I don't think it's the only thing hurting it (there are a lot of factors here), but I think it would be in the best interest of the horse racing industry to move towards a national regulating body of some kind, stop cannibalizing itself locally, better coordinate with the national casino companies that are indirectly competing with its action, take some selective cues from organizations like NASCAR, and condense the product to have fewer but more professional races with more condensed and consistent top level talent. It wouldn't solve all of the collusion and corruption problems, but I think it would be much better.
If true, it begs the question - How smart is it to bet on such corruptible situations?
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
MLB petitions the NGC to not allow books to take action on spring training games.

While not a big deal bc they wont ask books not to take action but it just shows MLB doesnt really want to embrace gambling.
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
Gulfstream on Saturday features a Derby prep race, the Fountain of Youth. The rest of the card is stacked with a ton of stakes races. Looking forward to the return of Juvenile Filly champ Jaywalk. Hoping she runs huge, not for gambling reasons bc she will be a short price, but for breeding reasons. Love her sire Cross Traffic, need him to continue going up in value.

Was hoping Maximus Mischief would run in the FOY. He would be a short price and huge bet against for me. Being by Into Mischief and having a sprinting pedigree, I didnt like his chances at all.
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
KY tax law changed for 2018. You wont be able to deduct gambling losses against winnings and would be taxed on any winnings regardless of losses. (Includes lotto)

So if you won 200,000 and lost 400,000 you would owe taxes on the "earnings" of 200,000.

Lawmakers said on twitter they will work to change it going forward but likely nothing can be done for 2018. What a bunch of idiots. They then tried to say we never knew, nobody knew. Liars and idiots.

I said before politicians will screw up sports betting.
 

JcksnPlrBrs2002

Well-known member
KY tax law changed for 2018. You wont be able to deduct gambling losses against winnings and would be taxed on any winnings regardless of losses. (Includes lotto)

So if you won 200,000 and lost 400,000 you would owe taxes on the "earnings" of 200,000.

Lawmakers said on twitter they will work to change it going forward but likely nothing can be done for 2018. What a bunch of idiots. They then tried to say we never knew, nobody knew. Liars and idiots.

I said before politicians will screw up sports betting.
Even worse, it's basically soaking casual bettors. If you file as a professional gambler and/or a business, you're basically exempt from the problem (we file things quite a bit differently than someone who gets a random handpay at a slot machine or something). To be honest, I'm not as well-read on how the taxation aspect works with gambling as I should be (I simply keep extremely meticulous records of everything, turn them over to a professional accountant, and have them deal with it), but it sounds absolutely ridiculous.

I'm not surprised though. The IRS and state-level departments are, let's say... ..."less than hospitable" when it comes to gambling income. I'm downright anal-retentive with record-keeping and use a professional, and I've still been audited six times in the last decade. I've cleared every time, but I think they pick on us.
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
Dave Tuley
@ViewFromVegas
·
48m
Nevada sports books won $14.6 million from bettors in January (a 41,7% decrease from January 2018 with $7.77 million from football and $5,85 million from basketball, according to figures released by the state's Gaming Control Board this morning
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
David Payne Purdum
@DavidPurdum
·
19h
Nevada casinos' net win in January:
Blackjack $90.2 million
Craps $34.7 million
Roulette $29.4 million
Baccarat $95.9 million
Sports $14.6 million
Penny slots $283.2 million
[Source: Nevada Gaming Control]

This person didnt list poker...
 

irish_buffalo

Well-known member
A couple things stick out to me.

Penny slots jumped at me but after thinking about it many people who were never introduced to any table games are usually intimidated to play and stick to slots.

I would have thought the sports books would have made more. Perhaps online and local illegal books put a damper on that?

I just got back from a conference out there and a few friends wanted futures placed for them (like Browns winning Super Bowl :))
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
A couple things stick out to me.

Penny slots jumped at me but after thinking about it many people who were never introduced to any table games are usually intimidated to play and stick to slots.

I would have thought the sports books would have made more. Perhaps online and local illegal books put a damper on that?

I just got back from a conference out there and a few friends wanted futures placed for them (like Browns winning Super Bowl :))
Baccarat is really high as well.

The juice on sports gambling really isnt very high. They dont have near the edge they do in comparison to slots where they essentially control every payout.
 

JcksnPlrBrs2002

Well-known member
David Payne Purdum
@DavidPurdum
·
19h
Nevada casinos' net win in January:
Blackjack $90.2 million
Craps $34.7 million
Roulette $29.4 million
Baccarat $95.9 million
Sports $14.6 million
Penny slots $283.2 million
[Source: Nevada Gaming Control]

This person didnt list poker...

People are always surprised by baccarat, but it brings in a lot of whales, especially from Asia. It's not that popular with the general public in America, but if you go by those tables in the evening, it's not unusual to see a pretty active scene around it, and you'd be amazed at how much money they can throw around.

"Poker revenue" is sort of a weird thing for casinos. There isn't anywhere near as much upside for them as table games and slots (a lot of smaller rooms barely make anything, or even lose a bit, after costs), but it makes sense to keep some steadier streams of cash in your building with a popular game where nobody is directly playing the house (kind of similar to how you want to balance stocks in an investment portfolio with more boring stuff), and it draws in some important traffic that will inevitably go play some other games that might not have even bothered coming if there wasn't a card room. I'm somewhat rare in that I won't play other games, but a pretty solid majority of the other players do, and even if we don't, we still drop some money in other ways and frequently bring friends/family along.
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
How do you feel casino management treats you? Have you noticed a change in their "attitude" towards whales/pro gamblers?
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
Early p4 play at Gulfstream. Played it on the super cheap. Gives me a little action while working today before the bigger races kick off. I like the 1 Siem Riep in the last leg at 10-1 m/l


Will wheel up and down in a trifecta.
 

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JcksnPlrBrs2002

Well-known member
How do you feel casino management treats you? Have you noticed a change in their "attitude" towards whales/pro gamblers?
For the most part, the relationship is pretty cordial, even downright chummy. Poker is the one game in the casino where the house has no direct interest in who wins -- they pull their rake out no matter what anyway. The biggest thing for them is having seats filled. If anything, it's some of the friendliest staff-player interaction you'll see in the entire building. We all tend to get to know each other, and most of us are typically nicer to the dealers/staff than average. It's the casuals that you'll see berating the dealers over "dealing them bad cards" and nonsense like that***. It's actually often so friendly that the casino will get a little irritated about it, because it's not uncommon for us to hang out socially outside of the room (different casinos can get touchy about that kind of thing).

(***This always cracks me up, because if dealers had any control over the cards dealt, they'd be trying to HELP you - they don't get the bulk of their tips from angry losers...)

There are a few "potential concerns" from their end, but most of them tend to take care of themselves naturally. Card rooms don't want a bunch of sharks intimidating casual players, but good players don't want to do that either. You'll see regulars jump on other regulars for trying to do that WAY before the staff will ever intervene. It's also true that the rooms would be a bit happier if it was full of just amateurs trading chips back and forth without "pros" regularly pulling money out of the ecosystem, but there are relatively few of us, and that aspect tends to be kind of a wash at worst for them, because we keep tables going (we'll sit there for-ev-er) and we tend to push the dealers to keep their hands-dealt-per-hour up. The other thing is, too, actual "pros" don't have THAT much of a profound effect on the ecosystem of the room because most of the people who think that they're "pros" are actually just "break-even or losing regulars".
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
I heard you say earlier a lot of people ask for time. If you dont mind me asking what is the etiquette on that? Only do it if there is a lot of money at stake? Frequency? How much time do they get? Ever been told no?

I would think other players would get frusrated especially qhen pace of play is so much faster online
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
I think if a dude asked for time more than once in a night i would get a little annoyed. Might be a good tactic to get some uncomfortable and annoyed
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
Early p4 play at Gulfstream. Played it on the super cheap. Gives me a little action while working today before the bigger races kick off. I like the 1 Siem Riep in the last leg at 10-1 m/l


Will wheel up and down in a trifecta.
The 1 didnt win. Would have paid around 200 for .50 cents.

Late p4 at Gulfstream paid out huge with 2 even money winners. You had a 1/5 lose the 2nd leg, with a 50-1 winner. The feature Fountain of Youth saw the favorite miss the board as well.
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
I know a guy who played this. I would be sick right now.

The 2 barely lost in the 1st leg at 6-1.
2nd leg the 4 wins at 51-1
3rd leg 9-1 wins
4th leg 6 wins at like 5/2.

The 2nd and 3rd legs you saw two overwhelming favorites in all pools. For example the 1 Jaywalk in the 2nd leg took like 290k of 340k bet in the show pool. Hidden Scroll was the big fav in the 3rd leg.

Beat one of them and you are looking at an ok hit. Beat both and it becomes balloons.

In the 1st leg he lost to a 4/5 shot horse trained by the top guy on grass Chad Brown. It still paid $2,400 for a 5p cent bet.

Had the 2 won he is looking at over 10 grand.


Ouch
 

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JcksnPlrBrs2002

Well-known member
I think if a dude asked for time more than once in a night i would get a little annoyed. Might be a good tactic to get some uncomfortable and annoyed
It's a highly subjective thing -- it works sort of like baseball, where there are some fuzzy "unwritten" rules in play.

Most of my irritation is based on "intentions". If someone genuinely needs to think through something and they only take 3-5 minutes, I usually don't care too much if they keep it down to a once or twice in an hour. I can even occasionally handle someone taking a bit longer if it really is just "one of those hands". One hand can be the difference between a losing or winning night, so it's mostly tolerated. It's a really subjective thing - more time and thinking is tolerated the higher the stakes are. If they're just putting on a show though, or didn't really need the time, or they're trying to recreate some sort of weird staredown thing that they saw on television or something, then people lose their patience really fast. It's also mildly annoying when people take a bit longer to fold after they get caught in a bluff or something, trying to save face, but everyone does it now and again, so it's usually overlooked.

Tournaments are a little different. The blinds periodically go up, so someone taking time can directly effect the chances of other people. That's where you see most of the controversies. Again, it's fairly well tolerated if someone occasionally needs an extra minute or two to think, if they genuinely need it, but people are a lot less patient about it in tournaments, and "gamesmanship" is a frequent issue. "Calling the clock" on someone can get heated, because it's often necessary, but sometimes people will interpret it as having their integrity questioned or as a tactic to try to rattle them while they're thinking.
 
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thavoice

Well-known member
Went to the Casino in Dayton yesterday for a few hours. I spread my gambling out quite a bit and glad to say the 4.5 hours only cost me 20 bucks.

Ha. So be it.

MY goal is to drink as much of the free pop and coffee as I can and watch a lot of sports on tv.

Still was cheaper than going to sports bars and watching games allday!
 
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