Covid Cancellations

madman

Well-known member
With the chatter on news/radio today about the possibility of Dewine ordering all schools to go to online instruction, my mind went back to the spring when the wrestling state championship was cancelled as athletes were being transported to Columbus. Could the same thing happen again this fall?

If no schools are allowed to be in session, I find it hard to believe sports will continue. I know many schools are online 100% now by district/county decisions, but a state mandated move back to online feels different.

Has anyone heard anything related to discussions at the OHSAA regarding fall sports if there is a state-mandate closure of the schoools?
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
Just speculating, but I would imagine that if schools close, it's a done deal. Can't have school sports if schools are shut down. If it goes to remote/on-line, then I would think that it can still be done, but it will be with strict rules to follow. Unreal that we are still right where we were mid March.
 

Rohbino

Well-known member
Just speculating, but I would imagine that if schools close, it's a done deal. Can't have school sports if schools are shut down. If it goes to remote/on-line, then I would think that it can still be done, but it will be with strict rules to follow. Unreal that we are still right where we were mid March.
I don't quite follow you here. Schools will not just "shut down." If kids are no longer physically attending school, school will become virtual/remote. The school districts are not going to just cease teaching.

And yes, it is unreal that we are still where we are. A lot of the spike in numbers that occurred in the late summer/early fall were driven by universities starting back. That has leveled off, though. To illustrate, tOSU had 2,831 cumulative cases on 9/24 with a 3.1% positivity. Last week, on 10/17, those numbers stood at 3,279 and 2.2%. There are estimated, through a 14 day average, to be 330 active cases. Ohio State is doing a lot of testing. Through last weekend they have done nearly 150,000 tests of students alone. Other schools around Ohio have had similar trends. Miami, a school not nearly as large as Ohio State, has 2,175 cumulative positive cases. Miami stands at somewhere around 380 active cases. Dayton has not been great either but it has leveled off.

There are other universities where the numbers being reported seem to be really low compared to the student population. Through 10/8 Akron was only reporting 61 cases and they are currently claiming that there are only 7 active cases. Kent State is only claiming a total of 282 cases. Kent's and Akron's numbers are really hard to believe given that the College of Wooster, with a hair under 2,000 students, has had 101 positive cases since testing began. Wooster went totally remote last week, BTW, and has very strict protocols in place regarding when kids can leave dorms. It's basically just to get food from the dining halls.

A school that has gone totally off the rails is Ohio U. As of yesterday OU has given 994 tests to students and have had 492 positive tests. Looking at OU and the numbers of tests that they've done draws attention to how there is such a wide discrepancy in testing and standards. Ohio U has around 20,000 students at the Athens campus and has given less than 1,000 tests while Wooster has less than 2,000 students and has given around 3,700 tests. All of this tells me that there are a lot more cases than we know. It also shows that on the whole we don't know what we're doing.

The current spike in numbers is being driven by people that should know better - the adults. They've gotten sloppy and careless. Some of this is being driven by false assurances that as a country "we're rounding the corner." A lot of it could have been avoided and it didn't mean by shutting things down. All that it would have taken is people being smart & careful. With a vaccine still not being imminent, people had better get it together if they want some semblance of normalcy.

Where everything is getting really dicey is in the number of critical care beds that we have in Ohio. The state has a total 3,758 critical care beds. A little over 2,600 of them are filled. Having around 1,100 open critical care beds might sound like a lot but it really isn't. Look at the three largest counties in the state. Cuyahoga has about 200 open critical care beds, Franklin has about 120, and Hamilton has about 100.
 

5x26

Active member
With the chatter on news/radio today about the possibility of Dewine ordering all schools to go to online instruction, my mind went back to the spring when the wrestling state championship was cancelled as athletes were being transported to Columbus. Could the same thing happen again this fall?

If no schools are allowed to be in session, I find it hard to believe sports will continue. I know many schools are online 100% now by district/county decisions, but a state mandated move back to online feels different.

Has anyone heard anything related to discussions at the OHSAA regarding fall sports if there is a state-mandate closure of the schoools?
There is NO talk of schools shutting down, He was very clear if you watched/listened. He reiterated the safest and best place for kids to be is in school. Kids are not spreading it. He did say there are districts that clearly don't follow science or put the kids first. (Ok he didn't say that exactly but the truth is the truth) that are currently remote learning and are not going to move to in person like they should. And some district are going hybrid. That does nothing to sports and shoudn't. So please don't spread misinformation. How about we focus on allowing more kids run at once and reduce restrictions for kids.
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
How about we focus on allowing more kids run at once and reduce restrictions for kids.
They have already done that. Districts, Regionals and State are all full go at full participation.

I don't quite follow you here. Schools will not just "shut down." If kids are no longer physically attending school, school will become virtual/remote. The school districts are not going to just cease teaching.
I was thinking more that they might shut down for an Autumn break like they did the extended Spring Break. I don't know where everyone is with grading periods, but my kids were usually done right about now for the first grading period. Given that things are out of whack time wise, I thought it could be something that is done right at Regionals or State week.
 

yj_runfan

Well-known member
They've gotten sloppy and careless. Some of this is being driven by false assurances that as a country "we're rounding the corner." A lot of it could have been avoided and it didn't mean by shutting things down. All that it would have taken is people being smart & careful. With a vaccine still not being imminent, people had better get it together if they want some semblance of normalcy.
How can there be ANY semblance of normalcy? The only way to slow the virus is to avoid normalcy. Returning to normalcy is the problem right now.
 

Percidae

Member
During one of his press conferences, Dewine announced a study to look at the anecdotal evidence that kids that are quarantined due to sitting beside someone in class that tested positive are not being infected themselves. This, if true, suggest there is no spread in schools and that the quarantine protocol should be relaxed or eliminated. Has anyone heard if this study has been completed? It should not take long since it should be just an analysis of already collected data.

My wife is a teacher and has had one student test positive and several other that had to be quarantined with devastating results for these kids. Not because of Covid health reasons because none of them were sick or had symptoms. The one student that tested positive had to go on anti-anxiety medication because he was convinced he was going to die. There is so much irrational fear throughout our entire society about this that the kids pick up on it leading to consequences much more deleterious than testing positive for Covid.
 

5x26

Active member
During one of his press conferences, Dewine announced a study to look at the anecdotal evidence that kids that are quarantined due to sitting beside someone in class that tested positive are not being infected themselves. This, if true, suggest there is no spread in schools and that the quarantine protocol should be relaxed or eliminated. Has anyone heard if this study has been completed? It should not take long since it should be just an analysis of already collected data.

My wife is a teacher and has had one student test positive and several other that had to be quarantined with devastating results for these kids. Not because of Covid health reasons because none of them were sick or had symptoms. The one student that tested positive had to go on anti-anxiety medication because he was convinced he was going to die. There is so much irrational fear throughout our entire society about this that the kids pick up on it leading to consequences much more deleterious than testing positive for Covid.
Yes!! And state wide as of last week the number of kids that were quarantined due to a positive case that subsequently tested positive was...Hold on....wait for it....ZERO

Interesting that some of you are still so scared of a virus with a VERY specific appetite and it's not the people we are treating the worst.

You can't stop a virus, it does what a virus does. You cant really even slow it down. New York's 2nd biggest jump came during the quarantine from people who had been isolated. The bulk of positives at this point comes from aggressive mask wearers. Stop acting like this is something it's not. Those that do are the problem, certainly not the kids and for 100% certain not young athletes.
 

grange45

Active member
Yes!! And state wide as of last week the number of kids that were quarantined due to a positive case that subsequently tested positive was...Hold on....wait for it....ZERO
This is 100% not true. At my school alone we had two kids test positive while being in quarantine. Where did you get this data? Just asking because I'm curious. A Quanan website?
 

EuclidandViren

Active member
Yes!! And state wide as of last week the number of kids that were quarantined due to a positive case that subsequently tested positive was...Hold on....wait for it....ZERO
You may live in a different part of the state than me.

My school had to forfeit two postseason sports. Volleyball just canceled.

We have over 300+ quarantines right now at the high school level. We just rolled back from being in person.
One students' grandparents and parents have both passed away from this virus.

On a positive note, we just found a football player with an enlarged heart. The virus tests with a doctor may have saved this young man's life.

*on a side note I do believe we should be in school and we should be playing sports. I believe the quarantines are a little gregarious, but the virus and the quarantines by the health department are real.
 

mathking

Well-known member
Yes!! And state wide as of last week the number of kids that were quarantined due to a positive case that subsequently tested positive was...Hold on....wait for it....ZERO
To piggy back on grange45's comments, yeah, not true. Since I have direct knowledge of multiple counter-examples.

You can't stop a virus, it does what a virus does. You cant really even slow it down. New York's 2nd biggest jump came during the quarantine from people who had been isolated. The bulk of positives at this point comes from aggressive mask wearers. Stop acting like this is something it's not. Those that do are the problem, certainly not the kids and for 100% certain not young athletes.
You can slow the spread of viruses down. That is actually the standard way to deal with a viral outbreak. We actually did that with COVID-19, at least twice. It's been done with SARS, MERS, H1N1, Ebola, flu, colds and lots of other viruses.

"New York's 2nd biggest jump came during the quarantine from people who had been isolated." What does this even mean?

What the heck on the bulk of positives come from aggressive mask wearers? You can't just say stuff and make it true. And there is literally know way to know who the "aggressive" mask wearers are. Let alone showing that they are the bulk of positives. The actual data are really clear that other risk factors being equal, the places where mask wearing is taken more seriously have slower viral spread. This includes in schools. I honestly can't believe we are still arguing about masks given how much evidence there has been over the past few months.

Honestly, schools have mostly shown that if you can keep kids physically spaced and keep them wearing masks that there is not a huge amount of spread in schools. At least as long as there isn't a high incidence of the virus in the community. Note, this doesn't necessarily mean that any one mitigation strategy is awesomely effective, but it seems clear that taken together the strategies have worked to keep schools from becoming huge loci of viral spread, even in the face of rising infections.
 

Rohbino

Well-known member
You cant really even slow it down.

New York's 2nd biggest jump came during the quarantine from people who had been isolated.

The bulk of positives at this point comes from aggressive mask wearers.
Please, Dr. Atlas, tell us more....
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
I just spoke to a teacher (customer of mine) who said their district is going back to on line only until further notice because of students testing positive. They are starting Monday from what she told me.
 

CC Track Fan

Active member
Just reading that killed a couple of brain cells. How in the heck could you possibly know that?
Well he might not but the CDC announced their finding: CDC: 85% of COVID-19 patients report ‘always’ or ‘often’ wearing masks

Also if masks worked so well why would the CDC add this note to those that has been exposed. They treat exposure the same weather masked are involved or not. CDC Link
Note: This is irrespective of whether the person with COVID-19 or the contact was wearing a mask or whether the contact was wearing respiratory personal protective equipment (PPE)
There are many knowledgeable science and medical people question the use of mask. If you haven't seen that information you are being willfully ignorant.
 

Letsrace

New member
Well he might not but the CDC announced their finding: CDC: 85% of COVID-19 patients report ‘always’ or ‘often’ wearing masks

Also if masks worked so well why would the CDC add this note to those that has been exposed. They treat exposure the same weather masked are involved or not. CDC Link


There are many knowledgeable science and medical people question the use of mask. If you haven't seen that information you are being willfully ignorant.
Yes sir! Facts matter.
 

mathking

Well-known member
OK, from a couple weeks ago, and article in Science that is relatively skeptical and STILL acknowledges that the data support wearing masks. Recently from CDC, which goes into the differences between masks and why "not good enough for medical personnel" is not that same as "not at all effective."
From late June. From April. For those saying "but there weren't randomized studies, from NIH.
So many health systems are telling us to wear masks: the University of Maryland System, Johns Hopkins, the Cleveland Clinic (citing Duke research).

What really gets me are the actual doctors and scientists citing study data that says "See, masks are not effective" when the actual study data says no such thing. Mostly those are studies that are looking at mask types that are proved to reach a certain threshold of protective value to the wearer. (See the CDC article above.) But they ignore that the studies did not say "no effectiveness" and are either ignoring or in some cases just don't understand probability. More than a few times I have heard doctors explain probability wildly incorrectly on this subject. I always pray that they are not UC grads that I might have taught probability to.
 

yj_runfan

Well-known member
Well he might not but the CDC announced their finding: CDC: 85% of COVID-19 patients report ‘always’ or ‘often’ wearing masks

Also if masks worked so well why would the CDC add this note to those that has been exposed. They treat exposure the same weather masked are involved or not. CDC Link


There are many knowledgeable science and medical people question the use of mask. If you haven't seen that information you are being willfully ignorant.
Define "aggressive mask wearers". Aggressive people that wear masks? Ordinary people that wear their masks aggressively?
 

5x26

Active member
The info on 100% confirmed transmission from quarantined students came from the Interim Health director during the regional Hospital admin call, those that know, know. Lets say there are a few and that would be the case just a few, what's the risk. How many kids 18 or under have died from Covid in Ohio? It should be 100% risk assessment. Mask usage and viral stoppage or slow downs have zero correlation. California has been the highlight of that, and Ohio is proving the case as well. the CDC relies solely on anecdotal data for mask wearing. Started with the hair stylists in Missouri and they jumped on it. In nearly every case under every actual study kids are shown to transmit drastically less often and contract less easily. Currently the CDC is considering reducing the recommended time for quarantine because the study's (peer reviewed by the way) just don't support treating kids this poorly. At least 1/2 of the current hospitalizations in our state with Covid are just that with. Not from. Elective surgery patients arrive and test positive. the Virus has nothing to do with their admission. I promise Covid didn't cause your broken arm, didn't cause your appendicitis, scheduled surgery or joint replacement. The state of Ohio has maintained between 2 and 5% of total occupancy Covid hospitalizations from Day 1. That is somewhere around 10-20% lower than influenza. As I arrive at work today and pull the state wide numbers and we are at less than 5% are "with" covid and the state has 26% open hospital rooms. This time last year we had 17% open rooms. People are still scared to go to the hospital and we are seeing increased deaths from preventable situations.

If the CDC is what we want to follow answer this. Why are we testing non symptomatic people. The CDC made this change over a Month ago? But the Governors don't like that so they push it anyway. Why are the return to work protocols from quarantine different (by different I mean shorter) for Health care workers than others? Why is the media not telling you that Morbid obesity >40 kg/m is the hands down number 1 cause of covid related death and hospitalizations? Then obesity between 30 and 40 kg/m's 2nd, With Cancer patients number 3, and dementia and organ transplant patients tied at #4. The average age of positives nation wide is 39, in Ohio it's 41, it's dropped by nearly 25 years over the last 4 months yet the Average age of death is still 80 the same as it's been since it started. By comparison the average are of death for all causes in Ohio is 78. And the lowest percentage of positives are over 80. Or that more over 100 years old have died than under 50? How many 100 year old's do you know? I thankfully have strong knowledge on this subject, so keep treating kids like they are the problem, keep thinking that people should wear masks in wide open outdoor spaces, keep thinking that passing that non mask wearer in the isle at the grocery store is going to make you deathly ill. You'll be wrong on all accounts but your virtue signaling points will skyrocket. And that's what really matters right?
 

mathking

Well-known member
OK, it's tough to even know where to begin. And I am so freaking tired of reexplaining this stuff... but someone has to get on the donkey and tilt at the windmills I guess.

1. If you claim 100% and it is observably false, that's on you. Coming back with "I got it from someone else and anyway it's close enough" doesn't cut it. From my professor in modeling infectious disease spread, when I asked him to comment on the claim: "Any professional who would assert 100% in such a situation is flat out lying. So I am going to guess the claim was misinterpreted."

2. It is really hard to definitively establish the exact person to person transmission event when community spread is increasing. The best you can usually do is probabilistic modeling. There are patterns you would see if there were zero transmission in schools, and we are not seeing those.

3. Very young kids are shown to contract and transmit less easily. But we are starting to see plenty of evidence that they transmit more easily than we thought. I have posted about this a couple of times on Yappi. Much of the interpreted speculation about this in the spring and summer ignored the fact that kids were just not interacting with people very much over the spring and summer, particularly indoors.

4. Teenagers have been shown to contract and transmit at roughly the same rate as adults. They are less likely to be hospitalized and to die than adults. That is pretty typical for all such diseases. It is dangerous thinking to believe that schools are magical places where the virus doesn't spread. In schools they are generally wearing masks and spread out, so there are less infections than when they get together for homecoming parties. That doesn't mean there is no danger in school or that sending everyone back full time, and thus doubling or more the density of contact won't increase infections.

5. Death is not the only metric by which this virus is a lot more dangerous than common flu. It has shown measurable lasting effects on the respiratory and circulatory system even on those who were asymptomatic.

6. Nowhere near as many people have been infected by this yet as are infected in a normal flu season. We have enough data from all of the testing to know this pretty conclusively now. But we also seem to be doing our level best to correct that right now.

7. As I have demonstrated (on previous Yappi threads and on this Yappi thread) your blanket assertion "Mask usage and viral stoppage or slow downs have zero correlation" is again, observably false. It is just not true.

8. Throwing out a bunch of unrelated statistics on this do not demonstrate strong knowledge, unless it is being done to intentionally obfuscate. Using the logic you state, smoking is not dangerous. Not wearing your seatbelt is not dangerous. Hell, asbestos is perfectly safe by your reasoning. I have graduate course work and work experience in analyzing actual pandemic data, and I am not an expert. I do know people who are actual experts. And I pay attention to what the overwhelming majority of experts say.
 

Running Man 101

Active member
During one of his press conferences, Dewine announced a study to look at the anecdotal evidence that kids that are quarantined due to sitting beside someone in class that tested positive are not being infected themselves. This, if true, suggest there is no spread in schools and that the quarantine protocol should be relaxed or eliminated. Has anyone heard if this study has been completed? It should not take long since it should be just an analysis of already collected data.

My wife is a teacher and has had one student test positive and several other that had to be quarantined with devastating results for these kids. Not because of Covid health reasons because none of them were sick or had symptoms. The one student that tested positive had to go on anti-anxiety medication because he was convinced he was going to die. There is so much irrational fear throughout our entire society about this that the kids pick up on it leading to consequences much more deleterious than testing positive for Covid.
I lost some kids for Districts because they happened to be near someone in school that tested positive. That kid came back negative a couple of days later when retested and is back in school, but my kids get to stay home for two weeks (10 days).
 

Running Man 101

Active member
OK, from a couple weeks ago, and article in Science that is relatively skeptical and STILL acknowledges that the data support wearing masks. Recently from CDC, which goes into the differences between masks and why "not good enough for medical personnel" is not that same as "not at all effective."
From late June. From April. For those saying "but there weren't randomized studies, from NIH.
So many health systems are telling us to wear masks: the University of Maryland System, Johns Hopkins, the Cleveland Clinic (citing Duke research).

What really gets me are the actual doctors and scientists citing study data that says "See, masks are not effective" when the actual study data says no such thing. Mostly those are studies that are looking at mask types that are proved to reach a certain threshold of protective value to the wearer. (See the CDC article above.) But they ignore that the studies did not say "no effectiveness" and are either ignoring or in some cases just don't understand probability. More than a few times I have heard doctors explain probability wildly incorrectly on this subject. I always pray that they are not UC grads that I might have taught probability to.
Look at how Sweden has fared vs mainland EU. The EU is actually getting worse than the US right now. Real world example.

I heard just this morning that we would 500,000 dead in the US by the end of the year if we didn't do something. This is just plain silly. By the CDC's own estimates only 6% of the deaths are from covid. The others just die with it, maybe a contributing factor, maybe not. 1/2 those deaths people weren't even tested.

The actual US death rate (from all causes) is now trending slightly below normal now and will continue below for some time.

Facts and reality trump "science" and feelings. Somehow not over running the hospitals has turned into not anyone catching the virus. Progressives have ruined the word "science" now to get to their political objectives, again.
 

Running Man 101

Active member
been
OK, it's tough to even know where to begin. And I am so freaking tired of reexplaining this stuff... but someone has to get on the donkey and tilt at the windmills I guess.

1. If you claim 100% and it is observably false, that's on you. Coming back with "I got it from someone else and anyway it's close enough" doesn't cut it. From my professor in modeling infectious disease spread, when I asked him to comment on the claim: "Any professional who would assert 100% in such a situation is flat out lying. So I am going to guess the claim was misinterpreted."

2. It is really hard to definitively establish the exact person to person transmission event when community spread is increasing. The best you can usually do is probabilistic modeling. There are patterns you would see if there were zero transmission in schools, and we are not seeing those.

3. Very young kids are shown to contract and transmit less easily. But we are starting to see plenty of evidence that they transmit more easily than we thought. I have posted about this a couple of times on Yappi. Much of the interpreted speculation about this in the spring and summer ignored the fact that kids were just not interacting with people very much over the spring and summer, particularly indoors.

4. Teenagers have been shown to contract and transmit at roughly the same rate as adults. They are less likely to be hospitalized and to die than adults. That is pretty typical for all such diseases. It is dangerous thinking to believe that schools are magical places where the virus doesn't spread. In schools they are generally wearing masks and spread out, so there are less infections than when they get together for homecoming parties. That doesn't mean there is no danger in school or that sending everyone back full time, and thus doubling or more the density of contact won't increase infections.

5. Death is not the only metric by which this virus is a lot more dangerous than common flu. It has shown measurable lasting effects on the respiratory and circulatory system even on those who were asymptomatic.

6. Nowhere near as many people have been infected by this yet as are infected in a normal flu season. We have enough data from all of the testing to know this pretty conclusively now. But we also seem to be doing our level best to correct that right now.

7. As I have demonstrated (on previous Yappi threads and on this Yappi thread) your blanket assertion "Mask usage and viral stoppage or slow downs have zero correlation" is again, observably false. It is just not true.

8. Throwing out a bunch of unrelated statistics on this do not demonstrate strong knowledge, unless it is being done to intentionally obfuscate. Using the logic you state, smoking is not dangerous. Not wearing your seatbelt is not dangerous. Hell, asbestos is perfectly safe by your reasoning. I have graduate course work and work experience in analyzing actual pandemic data, and I am not an expert. I do know people who are actual experts. And I pay attention to what the overwhelming majority of experts say.
Think you might overestimate your knowledge and abilities?
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
Look at how Sweden has fared vs mainland EU. The EU is actually getting worse than the US right now. Real world example.
I have very good friends from Sweden. They were so upset by how they handled it at first, that the people took it upon themselves to quarantine and socially distance. They have not just let it run wild. They are doing more than we are just on their own. Even with that said, they are starting to put more restrictions on people as their hospitals are starting to fill up. Much different society than we are here. I lived there for awhile in Gothenburg.

Don't worry, we are starting to fill hospitals again. This isn't going to be pretty. Please, just once, tell me why our hospital ICU's fill up? Show me when that has ever happened before.
 

mathking

Well-known member
What about Sweden anyway? It has been the favorite example of part of the U.S. to show that we don't need all the restrictions. Leaving aside a couple of factors (generous social safety net, universal health care availability) that make it a not quite apples to apples comparison, here is what their virus profile looks like:
Sweden.png
Here is what ours looks like:
USA.png
There peak was earlier, and then, requirements or not, their behavior changed significantly. (And even before that a LOT of people were staying home, wearing masks and following recommendations.) Adjusted for population they are objectively better off than we are (their peak would be nearing 50k with the same size population) but not in a dramatically different way. And they currently have a high percentage wearing masks, socially distancing, etc. And they did not "save their economy." Turns out that lots of people being infected and lots of people being hospitalized means people don't go out and act like everything is normal whether they are allowed to or not.

For what it's worth, here is Norway:
Screen Shot 2020-10-26 at 12.38.08 PM.png
 
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mathking

Well-known member
I honestly cannot fathom what political agenda people think is driving "progressives" (which seems to mean the political spectrum from Bernie Sanders to Mike DeWine) to invent a crisis. I don't know any who wants this.

To psychodad's point, read this at lunch today.
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
Dr. Fauci has served 5 other Presidents well. He has saved millions of lives. Now, all of a sudden, he is trashed by President Trump. The common denominator for all the chaos is Trump. Everything is a conspiracy and everyone is an idiot all of a sudden. I understand that looking at total number of positive tests might mean little as that could be a function of more testing. However, the % of positive tests is going way up. The number of people being hospitalized is going way up. Those are critical numbers.

Makes no sense to me to deny a GLOBAL PANDEMIC. The only reason some of you are is because your political party has handled it so poorly. You would have been very angry if H1N1 or Ebola or Zika got this bad in the US. Remember H1N1 a lot of schools closed for some time, but it was much better handled. The spread was not allowed to happen because people coming into the country were properly screened and quarantined.

Number one thing with Covid is you can't let it overrun the Healthcare system. We are failing to do that. We still do not properly trace it. That has to be a Federal thing. The refusal to do that is keeping this a disaster.
 
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