2023 Harbin Points Thread

V

Vincent and Regina

Well-known member
So in 2023 I will be calculating Elder Harbins again. The problem with only doing Elder's number is that it is relative, so you get a number but it depends on what others get to determine your seed. But bigger is usually better, but not always.

Your Level 2 divisor is determined by playing 10 games and all 10 of your opponents playing 10 games. So you start with 100. If one of your opponents plays less than 10 games you take away 1 for every game not played. So Neumann Goretti will start their season in Ohio Week 2. They will play 10 games, but their 10th game will be after Ohio Week 10 so it won't count. Elder loses 1 L2 Divisior. In Week 8 St Eds plays Football North, OHSAA is no longer counting Canadian teams so Elder loses another L2 divisor. Kentucky plays 10 games in 11 weeks. Because Louisville X plays a game after Ohio Week 10 they only have 9 games, Elder loses another L2. Life Christian Academy doesn't have a schedule posted on JoeEitel or their website. I did find one on Max Preps which I don't really trust. They have no games Ohio Weeks 1, 3, or 10. So Elder's L2 drop by 3. So this drops Elder's Level 2 by 6 total if all schedule games are played and all schedule I have are correct. Elder's Level 2 should be 94.

A quirk with playing out of state teams is what Division they will be assigned. Louisville X should be D1. Chatard I will assume will be D4 like last year. Life was D7 when they played X last year so should be the same this year. Neumann Goretti is unknown right now, but with my early research, I will guess D4. This can be a push because they assume all the teams each of these teams plays is the same size and will be awarded Level 2 passed on that.

Neumann Goretti only has 9 games that will count for Elder and only 4 of those are on Friday Night (1 vs Elder) So if Elder wins vs NG and NG wins more games we might get some late returns. The big one being on October 21st The night after Week 10 in Ohio. This game WILL count as long as the final is reported by noon on October 22. (might be off on that time) So Joeeitel's numbers will change from Saturday Morning to Saturdday Night a lot based on how NG does.

Elder Schedule is a Good one to prevent L2 loses. GMC is horrible at this. So if West plays and beats Colerain and Oak Hills, When Colerain and Oak Hills play one of those team will lose and take away the half the possible points from West. Elder has six teams on the schedule that do not play anyone else on the schedule. Provide Elder beat those teams, they will get all the potential L2 points for those teams wins because they don't play anyone else.

Region 4 points. Elder only plays 3 teams on the schedule from Region 4 So the 3 biggest games are as follows. Moeller is the biggest because we have 3 common opponents. Lose that game and every win we gets hands points to Moeller. Pushing Moeller up and keeping us level. The next two biggest game is X they have two common opponents. Third is Sprinboro because they are in Region 4.

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As of right now, the Milford Eagles are sitting atop the region 4 Harbin rankings just like we all expected.

And half of the GMC (both Lakotas, Colerain, Oak Hills, and Fairfield) are all 0-2.
 
Princeton and Middletown are the only 2 GMC that have a shot at being a high seed. They are the only 2 GMC teams to win week 1 which means they are the only ones that will get outside the conference Level 2 points. After studying the Harbins over the years, Level 2 points are probably more important than Level 1. I sat down to do the Harbin points last night, but Eds, Louisville X, X, and Life don't play till today or tomorrow.

Looking at JoeEitel.com. Milford is in the lead, because they are the only one with any Level 2 points. (Could change if X wins today)

Region 4 has 19 teams (more than any other D1 Region Regions 1, 2, and 3 all have 17)

GMC 10
ECC 4
GCL 3
GWOC 1
Cincy Metro 1

Springboro and West Hi have the best opportunites to bring outside Level 2 points in. Both are currently 0-2. Only 3 teams won't make it so it is all about seeding.
 
Vincent and Regina said:
After studying the Harbins over the years, Level 2 points are probably more important than Level 1.
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Which is why you'll routinely see 6-4 and 5-5 GCL teams seed higher than 8-2 or 7-3 GMC, ECC or GWOC teams.

The region as a whole looks way down this year. As EHS said, half the GMC is 0-2, plus Springboro, Walnut Hills and West HI.

Sycamore, Lebanon and Milford seem to have solid teams this year. How good are Hamilton and Mason?
 
As much as people wanted to jump off the ship after last weeks game, I think Elder will be one of the top three teams in region 4. Moe maybe the favorite? Hard to tell early on.
 
Withrow beat Boro by almost 3 scores.

Will be interesting to see how Elder compares to that score next week.

I knew many are high on Withrow this year, and they've back it up so far. Kudos to them for scheduling a team like X as well.
 
So since we have not played them yet it won't really do anything to the current Harbin score. So I am going to update without the St Eds game. You get the same amount of points from a team no matter what week you play them. The difference is the earlier you play them and beat them the points come in weekly so it is sort of a slow snack. If you beat a team in week 10, it is a big dinner with their points.

So the big take away is Life Christian Academy lost to Imhotep Charter 87 to 0. Thankfully they only play 7 games that count for Harbins. They are not going to win games. Their schedule includes Good Counsel (MD) who plays Eds tomorrow on ESPN. In 2022 They lost to Moeller in Ironton 39-31. So they should beat Life easily. They then play DeMatha Catholic who beat Springfield today 35-7. In 2007 DeMatha Lost to X 28-7 the same day Elder beat Independence. X beat Life Christian last year 30-16 and they have a different coach with different "players" who left when the coach left. Harbin wise it would be better if we did not play this team.

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pantherland said:
As much as people wanted to jump off the ship after last weeks game, I think Elder will be one of the top three teams in region 4. Moe maybe the favorite? Hard to tell early on.
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No, they’re the favorite, they have Marshall.
 
Omar said:
No, they’re the favorite, they have Marshall.
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They also have another new coach….i think X is going to prove to be the best but I guess since we’re only two weeks in, no one wants to believe it yet. I hate having to say this, trust me.
 
Jerry Maguire said:
They also have another new coach….i think X is going to prove to be the best but I guess since we’re only two weeks in, no one wants to believe it yet. I hate having to say this, trust me.
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King lost everyone from last yr’s team. It’s also evident West’s Offense is terrible.
 
I'm sure many watched Eds today on ESPN with some interest.

They obviously have guys all over the field, but it's a team that you can keep pace with if you don't turn the ball over. They are straight ball control, smash mouth football, but they can be dangerous in the passing game as well. Not great, but capable passing game.

Their defense was very good too. Good Counsel's RB was very very good, and was slowed with cramps, but they only gave up 7 and completely shut them down in the 2nd half when the RB went down.

Eds was able to rotate 3-4 different RBs with success with their enormous line, but I was especially intrigued by their sophomore back that was quick as lightning.
 
Doublehelix said:
I'm sure many watched Eds today on ESPN with some interest.

They obviously have guys all over the field, but it's a team that you can keep pace with if you don't turn the ball over. They are straight ball control, smash mouth football, but they can be dangerous in the passing game as well. Not great, but capable passing game.

Their defense was very good too. Good Counsel's RB was very very good, and was slowed with cramps, but they only gave up 7 and completely shut them down in the 2nd half when the RB went down.

Eds was able to rotate 3-4 different RBs with success with their enormous line, but I was especially intrigued by their sophomore back that was quick as lightning.
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I saw it also. Would you like my 2 50yd line seats for that game. Row J.
I don’t want to witness that bloodbath.
 
1965 Panther said:
I saw it also. Would you like my 2 50yd line seats for that game. Row J.
I don’t want to witness that bloodbath.
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They’re going to beat Elder badly. That’s just the reality, but their 2 best players weren’t on their roster a month ago. It’s easy to win when you have no scruples. Elder should drop them, even if it means playing 9 games. The whole state should take notice over the s**t they’re doing. Don’t schedule them, make them play a National Schedule.
 
Omar said:
They’re going to beat Elder badly. That’s just the reality, but their 2 best players weren’t on their roster a month ago. It’s easy to win when you have no scruples. Elder should drop them, even if it means playing 9 games. The whole state should take notice over the s**t they’re doing. Don’t schedule them, make them play a National Schedule.
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I would advise to play the backups but that’s not fair to them to have them spend the rest of the year on the inured list either.
DROP THIS GAME OFF THE SCHEDULE FOREVER. There is no honor in being a sacrificial lamb once a year. They destroyed a small college team today.
 
1965 Panther said:
I would advise to play the backups but that’s not fair to them to have them spend the rest of the year on the inured list either.
DROP THIS GAME OFF THE SCHEDULE FOREVER. There is no honor in being a sacrificial lamb once a year. They destroyed a small college team today.
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Everyone in OH should follow suit.
 
Omar said:
They’re going to beat Elder badly. That’s just the reality, but their 2 best players weren’t on their roster a month ago. It’s easy to win when you have no scruples. Elder should drop them, even if it means playing 9 games. The whole state should take notice over the s**t they’re doing. Don’t schedule them, make them play a National Schedule.
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The announcers noted on air during the game, Thomas was not on their roster until July 31st (first day of fall practice). They even chuckled when they spoke it. I took that as ‘what are ya going to do?’.

National schedule is absolute. They play 10 games, only 2 are traditional Friday night games.
 
boothmark77 said:
The announcers noted on air during the game, Thomas was not on their roster until July 31st (first day of fall practice). They even chuckled when they spoke it. I took that as ‘what are ya going to do?’.

National schedule is absolute. They play 10 games, only 2 are traditional Friday night games.
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And Mason wasn’t on the roster until then either. They’re trash and like I said earlier, no Elder fans should acknowledge their fan’s existence when they come to the Pit.

They should have to play Mater Dei, Bosco, Gorman, St Frances, Aquinas, IMG, DeMatha,etc. Even Ignatius should stop agreeing to play them until they actually follow the rules.

And I think everyone should know about the event that lead up to Troy Smith being expelled. It’s something Eds doesn’t want out there.
 
CalPreps has an interesting "project a game" scenario across the entire country. Certainly not a be-all end-all, but they have Elder at 5-5 against their current schedule. Results below - interesting it sees St X (Cincy) as the second best team on their schedule (behind Eds) based on comparative scores:

PN - Loss 28-40
NG - Win 35-17
SB - Win 38-14
Eds - Loss 6-48
LSX - Win 35-24
SX - Loss 17-35
Moe - Loss 35-41
LCA - Win 44-21
BC - Loss 34-35
LS - Win 38-22

Just for fun, I did E against IMG, and the result was 0-61.
 
So I was informed by Ohio Scheduler that Neumann & Goretti's game this week was canceled. Because of that Elder's final Level 2 divisor will drop to 93.
 

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Huge Harbin game for Elder. They have to start getting some wins from the teams on their schedule that are getting wins, otherwise, week 11 looks to be on the road.
 
So before Elder's game on Saturday this is what the Harbins look like. Ohio Schedule emailed me late last night that Life Christian's game vs Good Counsel was canceled because of lighting. So that means Elder L2 divisor goes down to 92.

Neumann & Goretti plays today, Cathedral vs Chatard will be finished at 10am today. Something mechincal failed at Arlington and the game will be finished at Chatard.

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Bishop Chatard comes all the way back from 0-21 to stun Cathedral 24-21 this morning in a game resumed from Friday night.

This will be one of the most important Harbin games for Elder to win as Chatard is likely to have minimal losses. The win improves Chatard to 4-0. It seems a win over Eds or Chatard could almost guarantee them a first round home game.
 
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I'm locked out of the other threads, so here's my thoughts on the Eds game:

What a great HS football game.

Elder's OLine was light's out as was Brass, he was awesome.

Ed's line, while not dominant, showed up when they were most needed. Two pivotal, smash-mouth drives when needed.

And to Omar, who says toughness and grit don't matter, it matters. It's the reason why they play this series. Such a great physical game for both teams. Ed's was getting dumb penalties because the relentlessness of the Elders player was non-stop. As I mentioned previously, Ed's has tremendous respect for Elder and this game, and this is exactly why. It's a damn good opponent who will test you in every way. The Elder kids have my deepest respect for how they leave everything on the field.

Both teams got significantly better today. Fantastic game.
 
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