2022 CFP Projections

adselder09 said:
So losing to bad teams at home isn't a major red flag? But losing to the #1 team in the country in their backyard is? Interesting take.

It seems you want to reward Notre Dame for beating a couple of teams at the top of a BAD ACC, after losing twice to bad teams at home. Yet you don't want to reward Oregon for winning all their games since losing to Georgia, the #1 team in the country in Week 1 in Atlanta.

Can't have it both ways. If you want to acknowledge Notre Dame getting better, you need to accept the fact that Oregon is much better than they were in Week 1.
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I took into account Notre Dame’s losses in my #9 ranking. If Notre Dame were 8-1, I’d have them #5 right now.

Figures that all of a sudden the ACC is bad in Yappi.com’s eyes despite having 5 teams ranked in this past week’s CFP Top 25, with a 6th team that should’ve been ranked (FSU). Just because Notre Dame took apart the ACC’s top teams doesn’t mean the ACC is bad. It’s certainly a deeper conference this year than the Big Ten.

Just off the top of my head, the ACC beat LSU (FSU), Purdue (Syracuse), West Virginia (Pitt), Texas Tech (NC State), East Carolina (NC State) and App State (UNC); took apart Northwestern (Duke); and played Tennessee very close (Pitt).

Oregon probably has improved, but so has Georgia. Oregon has one win over a CFP-ranked team: home vs UCLA. They look better mostly because they aren’t playing anyone of note since their decleating.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
Notre Dame met your measuring stick and passed with flying colors, destroying the No. 4 team in the country last night.

Why do you doubt whether Notre Dame is a Top 10 team? Sure, they don’t have an elite QB, but they have a strong rushing attack and a great defense. There’s more than one way to win a football game.

Tough to bring up a conference title game as a knock against Notre Dame when: 1. Tennessee won’t have it held against them that they won’t play in the SEC Title game; and 2. Whoever wins the Big Ten East will be playing some bum-@$$ Big Ten West team who will inevitably not even be ranked.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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Clearly not the 4th best team in the country. And definitely doesn't prove in any way, shape or form that ND is a top 10 team.
 
AEW Champion said:
The committee is tasked with finding and selecting the four BEST teams. The best teams are those who would beat other good teams on a neutral field. I’m not saying to dismiss a team’s record entirely, but the eye test is really all that’s needed for those of us who know ball.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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Right, find the BEST teams by using the criteria they've laid out. It includes the eye test, it also includes results on the field, SOS and SOR.
 
AEW Champion said:
@adselder09 You still need to address which teams I have ranked below #6 Alabama that would be favored over them on a neutral field, since you take issue with them not moving below 6.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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I really don't. Alabama has 2-losses. Get them outta here. LSU just beat them. USC would score on them. Oregon would give them problems now. We'll get to see Ole Miss play them next week.
 
AEW Champion said:
I took into account Notre Dame’s losses in my #9 ranking. If Notre Dame were 8-1, I’d have them #5 right now.

Figures that all of a sudden the ACC is bad in Yappi.com’s eyes despite having 5 teams ranked in this past week’s CFP Top 25, with a 6th team that should’ve been ranked (FSU). Just because Notre Dame took apart the ACC’s top teams doesn’t mean the ACC is bad. It’s certainly a deeper conference this year than the Big Ten.

Just off the top of my head, the ACC beat LSU (FSU), Purdue (Syracuse), West Virginia (Pitt), Texas Tech (NC State), East Carolina (NC State) and App State (UNC); took apart Northwestern (Duke); and played Tennessee very close (Pitt).

Oregon probably has improved, but so has Georgia. Oregon has one win over a CFP-ranked team: home vs UCLA. They look better mostly because they aren’t playing anyone of note since their decleating.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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No you didn't, because if you did you would barely have them in the Top 25 like the CFP will on Tuesday.

If you weren't living under a rock, or in your case have your homer blinders on because Notre Dame is partly in the ACC, you would know the ACC is the worst of the P5 this year. The committee had 5 teams ranked in the first ranking and three of them just lost. Two of them will (or at least should) be out of the rankings Tuesday.
 
5-4, 3-6, 4-5, 6-3, 5-4, 1-8, a loss.

1 team more than 1 game above .500, a combined 24-31. Not a single team in the top 3 of their respective conference. And that’s supposed to be proof the ACC is good? 😂
 
Orin Swift said:
5-4, 3-6, 4-5, 6-3, 5-4, 1-8, a loss.

1 team more than 1 game above .500, a combined 24-31. Not a single team in the top 3 of their respective conference. And that’s supposed to be proof the ACC is good? 😂
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Georgia struggled against the might 3-6 Kent St. 🤷 The caliber of athlete in that 24-31 blows that away. 🤷 They're still P5
 
No doubt UGA deserves their current #1 ranking but they did have a great schedule by SEC standards this year. Their tough OOC game was a defacto home game in Atlanta and they didn't have to play any of the big boys of the SEC West this year. Also their toughest road game looks to be at Kentucky and because of preseason ticket sales probably half of Commo I mean Kroger Field will probably be wearing red so it will likely not be very hostile. The SEC title game is played in Atlanta and they also probably get their semifinal game in Atlanta which is a nice break and gives them 3 big games at an hour drive from campus. Their path to the title game looks very clear at this time.
 
adselder09 said:
I really don't. Alabama has 2-losses. Get them outta here. LSU just beat them. USC would score on them. Oregon would give them problems now. We'll get to see Ole Miss play them next week.
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I’ll take this response as tacit acceptance that no one ranked below Alabama in my rankings is better than them on a neutral field.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
adselder09 said:
No you didn't, because if you did you would barely have them in the Top 25 like the CFP will on Tuesday.

If you weren't living under a rock, or in your case have your homer blinders on because Notre Dame is partly in the ACC, you would know the ACC is the worst of the P5 this year. The committee had 5 teams ranked in the first ranking and three of them just lost. Two of them will (or at least should) be out of the rankings Tuesday.
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There’s a decent chance that the ACC Championship game will be 11-1 Clemson vs. 11-1 North Carolina, with both teams being unbeaten except double-digit losses to Notre Dame.

In fact, if Notre Dame had been replaced on UNC’s schedule by a different opponent, they’d be 9-0 right now and be in the Top 10, talked about very similarly to TCU. Yet Notre Dame is given no respect for cruising past them in Chapel Hill.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
There’s a decent chance that the ACC Championship game will be 11-1 Clemson vs. 11-1 North Carolina, with both teams being unbeaten except double-digit losses to Notre Dame.

In fact, if Notre Dame had been replaced on UNC’s schedule by a different opponent, they’d be 9-0 right now and be in the Top 10, talked about very similarly to TCU. Yet Notre Dame is given no respect for cruising past them in Chapel Hill.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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UNC is trash without Drake Maye. They almost lost to UVA this past weekend. Lol.
 
Orin Swift said:
😂🤣😂🤣
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You can laugh all you want, but let’s look at notable non-conference wins for the Big Ten:

Notre Dame (Ohio State)
Auburn (Penn State)
Boston College (Rutgers)
SMU (Maryland)
Virginia (Illinois)
Colorado (Minnesota)

So, aside from Ohio State’s win, the Big Ten didn’t beat anyone of note in non-conference play besides the dregs of Power 5 teams plus a middling mid-major (SMU).

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
You can laugh all you want, but let’s look at notable non-conference wins for the Big Ten:

Notre Dame (Ohio State)
Auburn (Penn State)
Boston College (Rutgers)
SMU (Maryland)
Virginia (Illinois)
Colorado (Minnesota)

So, aside from Ohio State’s win, the Big Ten didn’t beat anyone of note in non-conference play besides the dregs of Power 5 teams plus a middling mid-major (SMU).

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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What does any of this have to do with your scorching take on that UNC juggernaut?
 
utsherman said:
UNC is trash without Drake Maye. They almost lost to UVA this past weekend. Lol.
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Well, then UNC is fortunate that QB is a really important position to a team’s success!

Ohio State fans should be the last to trash talk a close win after one-win Northwestern (losers to Miami (OH) and SIU) played right with the Buckeyes for the vast majority of the game Saturday.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
Well, then UNC is fortunate that QB is a really important position to a team’s success!

Ohio State fans should be the last to trash talk a close win after one-win Northwestern (losers to Miami (OH) and SIU) played right with the Buckeyes for the vast majority of the game Saturday.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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Nah. We can talk trash. A win by 14 counts the same as a win by 38, no? But you're right in some respects. Turns out NW was a much tougher opponent than ND for sure. Lol.
 
AEW Champion said:
I’ll take this response as tacit acceptance that no one ranked below Alabama in my rankings is better than them on a neutral field.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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It's a moot point. The rankings aren't based on the hypothetical who would beat who on a neutral field. And thank God for that. Otherwise we could just pencil in Alabam, Georgia, Ohio St and rotate 4th team in the 4-spot. No need to actually play games.
 
AEW Champion said:
You can laugh all you want, but let’s look at notable non-conference wins for the Big Ten:

Notre Dame (Ohio State)
Auburn (Penn State)
Boston College (Rutgers)
SMU (Maryland)
Virginia (Illinois)
Colorado (Minnesota)

So, aside from Ohio State’s win, the Big Ten didn’t beat anyone of note in non-conference play besides the dregs of Power 5 teams plus a middling mid-major (SMU).

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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That doesn’t magically make that line up the ACC faced an impressive slate.
 
AEW Champion said:
There’s a decent chance that the ACC Championship game will be 11-1 Clemson vs. 11-1 North Carolina, with both teams being unbeaten except double-digit losses to Notre Dame.

In fact, if Notre Dame had been replaced on UNC’s schedule by a different opponent, they’d be 9-0 right now and be in the Top 10, talked about very similarly to TCU. Yet Notre Dame is given no respect for cruising past them in Chapel Hill.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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I disagree. Carolina doesn't pass the eye test for me. They play in a lesser conference than TCU for starters and they've had some close calls with some bad teams - like 5-4 App St. They would be closer to the Top 10, but I don't think they would actually be in the top 10 if they were undefeated. Maybe like 12-13 in front of some 2-loss teams but still behind 1-loss Oregon, 1-loss USC, 1-loss Ole Miss.

And it really doesn't matter that Notre Dame would have wins against 11-1 Clemson and 11-1 North Carolina - we'll see if that holds, I bet Carolina loses another either to Wake or NCST - because the Irish have losses to 5-4 Marshall and 3-6 Stanford.
 
Heck of a weekend of college football, My top four include Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Ohio State, not necessarily in that order. A spot will be created by the loser of the Ohio State / Michigan loser. No way both get in. Tennesse had a great 1 loss if they win out in Georgia. Also, now TCU controls their own desitiny. They actually have as good or better resume than Michigan or Ohio State.
My comment on Ohio State is you simply have to ding them for this weekends close win vs. a vastly undermanned Northwestern team. I know many are claiming weather and yes, it wasn't great, but when you have SO much more talent than the opponent, you can't skate by with a one score game for 90% of the game.
 
Still many scenarios to play out but from a couple reporters that have done a mock committee meeting on that final day, Conference Champ and recency bias holds a lot of sway. So unlikely as it may be if LSU were to win the SEC title it would be very difficult to keep them out of the CFP. Same holds true with a 1 loss PAC 12 champ team, especially if it is a marquee name like USC that would have a OCC W over ND. The season is starting to get a 2007 vibe to it...
 
If the Michigan-OSU game isn’t close, and then the winner succumbs in the Big Ten title game so some bum team from the West division, will the Big Ten be kept out of the playoff altogether? I think that could happen.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
utsherman said:
Nah. We can talk trash. A win by 14 counts the same as a win by 38, no? But you're right in some respects. Turns out NW was a much tougher opponent than ND for sure. Lol.
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You’re trying to get aew to understand that? Good luck! According to him a loss (by his team) is as good as a win (by any other team).
 
nutsnbolts said:
You’re trying to get aew to understand that? Good luck! According to him a loss (by his team) is as good as a win (by any other team).
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No, I’ve said that when ranking teams for playoff selection, how a team performs in big games is by far the most relevant aspect to look at since you’re selecting a team to play in big games.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
If any conference deserves to have two teams in the CFP, it’s the SEC. Look at the non-conference scalps they have:

Oregon (Georgia)
Texas (Alabama)
Pitt (Tennessee)
Cincinnati (Arkansas)
BYU (Arkansas)
Utah (Florida)
Georgia Tech (Ole Miss)
Arizona (Miss State)
Miami (Texas A&M)

They took a few baffling losses, but this is still easily the strongest batch of vanquished non-conference foes.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
Well, then UNC is fortunate that QB is a really important position to a team’s success!

Ohio State fans should be the last to trash talk a close win after one-win Northwestern (losers to Miami (OH) and SIU) played right with the Buckeyes for the vast majority of the game Saturday.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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Of course we can talk trash. OSU has beaten the teams they’re supposed to. ND has not. That’s pretty much the end of the argument.
 
TCU has to be in if they win out after last weekend. I wouldn't be surprised if they stumble either at Texas or at Baylor though.

The Big XII doesn't have any other serious needle movers (Texas??) , but there is significant parity through the middle and bottom of the league. I'd probably argue that Iowa State, Texas Tech and West Virginia are the best bottom tier of any major conference. The bottom teams in that league will be amongst the strongest SOS in FBS at the end of the year.
 
nwwarrior09 said:
TCU has to be in if they win out after last weekend. I wouldn't be surprised if they stumble either at Texas or at Baylor though.

The Big XII doesn't have any other serious needle movers (Texas??) , but there is significant parity through the middle and bottom of the league. I'd probably argue that Iowa State, Texas Tech and West Virginia are the best bottom tier of any major conference. The bottom teams in that league will be amongst the strongest SOS in FBS at the end of the year.
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TCU making it would be similar to Cincinnati making the playoff last year. They earned it by the rules but they do not belong.

This year's playoff will likely be the first since time since its inception not to include Bama or Clemson.
 
irish_buffalo said:
TCU making it would be similar to Cincinnati making the playoff last year. They earned it by the rules but they do not belong.

This year's playoff will likely be the first since time since its inception not to include Bama or Clemson.
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At least TCU will have played several decent to good opponents: Texas, K-State, OK State, Baylor, Oklahoma. UC played one good opponent last year (Notre Dame) and 12 tomato cans.

But I agree that TCU is not one of the four best teams in the country. Those are Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and either Michigan or Ohio State. With Notre Dame not far behind.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
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