2022 CFP Projections

Hammerdrill said:
Yep, and we always beat Notre Dame too.
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Yes, Ohio State has won the few times these schools have played the past 30 years, but that trend ends next September.

And let’s not act like Ohio State doesn’t have built-in advantages. You see it plain as day when you see Notre Dame suspend star QB Everett Golson for a season coming off a BCS title game appearance for academic issues. Meanwhile, in Columbus, when a star player is in trouble academically, you see all kinds of sleight of hand ensue, such as enrolling guys in golf, music, AIDS Awareness, etc. and a class somehow giving out all A’s. Remember?


It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
At least TCU will have played several decent to good opponents: Texas, K-State, OK State, Baylor, Oklahoma. UC played one good opponent last year (Notre Dame) and 12 tomato cans.

But I agree that TCU is not one of the four best teams in the country. Those are Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and either Michigan or Ohio State.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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If they win out they are in. Bottom line.

Like most years the B12 is an anomaly. Okkie State beats Texas and then gets their lunch handed to them by KSU. I will say I think they have some better parity this season but to nwwarrior's point their bottom is pretty bad. My guess is they lose before the season is over and this is all for nothing.

OSU/UM will make the final four and GA is all but guaranteed a spot. If USC or Oregon finish with one loss they are in. That leaves one spot and will the committee ding a one loss Tennessee in favor of a B12 team or even a one loss OSU/UM?

This stuff always gets dicey around this time and by regular season's end it works itself out.

On a side note, the B10's bottom is pretty bad too. The league is hurt by MSU and Wisconsin having uncharacteristically bad seasons and the West is even more putrid than usual. Iowa has an outside chance of representing the West in the B10 Championship. Yuck.
 
irish_buffalo said:
If they win out they are in. Bottom line.

Like most years the B12 is an anomaly. Okkie State beats Texas and then gets their lunch handed to them by KSU. I will say I think they have some better parity this season but to nwwarrior's point their bottom is pretty bad. My guess is they lose before the season is over and this is all for nothing.

OSU/UM will make the final four and GA is all but guaranteed a spot. If USC or Oregon finish with one loss they are in. That leaves one spot and will the committee ding a one loss Tennessee in favor of a B12 team or even a one loss OSU/UM?

This stuff always gets dicey around this time and by regular season's end it works itself out.

On a side note, the B10's bottom is pretty bad too. The league is hurt by MSU and Wisconsin having uncharacteristically bad seasons and the West is even more putrid than usual. Iowa has an outside chance of representing the West in the B10 Championship. Yuck.
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You misread @nwwarrior09 point. He was saying the bottom of the Big 12 actually has a pulse and isn’t terrible. Teams like Iowa State and Texas Tech could rise up any given Saturday and cause problems for a solid team.

I think a one-loss Michigan or Ohio State is toast this year. Some years, they’d stand a chance of getting in, but not this time. Michigan’s non-conference schedule was a joke, and a home win over Penn State is the only thing they’ve got on their resume to go along with the eye test. The committee would have a hard time putting a team with one decent, non-Top 10 win into the playoff.

Ohio State would have a better shot with wins over Notre Dame and at Penn State, but their overall schedule is weak enough that it would be hard to put them in if their final bullet point is getting punked by Michigan just like last year … at home, no less.

I agree that the Big Ten outside of Ohio State and Michigan is really bad this year, and the West is a flat-out embarrassment to post-World War II offense.

I also agree that TCU is in if they win out. The feckless committee won’t have the balls to keep them out even though the whole country knows a team like Alabama or Ohio State (much less Georgia) would steamroll them.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
Yes, Ohio State has won the few times these schools have played the past 30 years, but that trend ends next September.

And let’s not act like Ohio State doesn’t have built-in advantages. You see it plain as day when you see Notre Dame suspend star QB Everett Golson for a season coming off a BCS title game appearance for academic issues. Meanwhile, in Columbus, when a star player is in trouble academically, you see all kinds of sleight of hand ensue, such as enrolling guys in golf, music, AIDS Awareness, etc. and a class somehow giving out all A’s. Remember?


It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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All ND players graduate. Isn't that odd? Are they the smartest kids on campus? Becuase I'm pretty sure that 100% of the non football playing student body don't graduate. Also, I thought ND was an elite institution? Would seem to me that if it were, the less smart would not graduate at a higher rate than the smarter.
 
Hammerdrill said:
All ND players graduate. Isn't that odd? Are they the smartest kids on campus? Becuase I'm pretty sure that 100% of the non football playing student body don't graduate. Also, I thought ND was an elite institution? Would seem to me that if it were, the less smart would not graduate at a higher rate than the smarter.
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Where are you pulling it from that 100% of Notre Dame football players graduate? Here’s the most recent article I could find regarding this, from the 2020 CFP:

apnews.com

Study: Graduation gap widens between white, Black athletes

The graduation gap between white and Black and football players on bowl-bound teams is increasing. The Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sport found that among the 56 teams playing in bowl games in this pandemic-affected season, white athletes graduate at a rate 16.3% higher than their Black...
apnews.com apnews.com

Quoted from article:


Of the four teams in this year College Football Playoff competing for the national championship, the survey found that Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame had strong academic standing “while Ohio State lagged behind,” Lapchick said.

Notre Dame graduated 91% of its football players, Alabama 88% and Clemson 83%. Ohio State graduated just 69% of its football players.

Among Black football players, Alabama graduated 84%, Notre Dame 82% and Clemson 77%. Ohio State graduated 60% of its Black players.

Alabama and Clemson graduated 100% of their white football players, Notre Dame 96% and Ohio State 90%.

Lapchick called the gap between white and Black football graduation rates at these schools “disturbing.”

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
Ohio State had a perfect APR last go round. And 91% is pretty close to 100%, it used to be 100% I know. Regardless, my point stands.
 
AEW Champion said:
No, I’ve said that when ranking teams for playoff selection, how a team performs in big games is by far the most relevant aspect to look at since you’re selecting a team to play in big games.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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How a ream performs in ALL games is the most important. That’s why typically the fewer the losses, the higher the ranking.
After the record they look at SOS, good wins, and bad losses.
 
AEW Champion said:
Yes, Ohio State has won the few times these schools have played the past 30 years, but that trend ends next September.

And let’s not act like Ohio State doesn’t have built-in advantages. You see it plain as day when you see Notre Dame suspend star QB Everett Golson for a season coming off a BCS title game appearance for academic issues. Meanwhile, in Columbus, when a star player is in trouble academically, you see all kinds of sleight of hand ensue, such as enrolling guys in golf, music, AIDS Awareness, etc. and a class somehow giving out all A’s. Remember?


It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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One really big one. - smarter fans! ;)
 
irish_buffalo said:
TCU making it would be similar to Cincinnati making the playoff last year. They earned it by the rules but they do not belong.
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By that logic I guess there's at least one team each year the Playoff has been around that "earned it by the rules" but didn't belong?
2015 - Florida State
2016 - Michigan State and Oklahoma
2017 - Washington and Ohio State
2018 - Clemson
2019 - Notre Dame
2020 - Oklahoma
2021 - Clemson and Notre Dame
2022 - Cincinnati and Michigan

Such a tired and lame stance. You didn't play well in the Playoff so you don't belong. You win all your games, you win the conference championship then you deserve the spot. You belong. Period.
 
adselder09 said:
By that logic I guess there's at least one team each year the Playoff has been around that "earned it by the rules" but didn't belong?
2015 - Florida State
2016 - Michigan State and Oklahoma
2017 - Washington and Ohio State
2018 - Clemson
2019 - Notre Dame
2020 - Oklahoma
2021 - Clemson and Notre Dame
2022 - Cincinnati and Michigan

Such a tired and lame stance. You didn't play well in the Playoff so you don't belong. You win all your games, you win the conference championship then you deserve the spot. You belong. Period.
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And that is what I said. They win out they are in.

Personally I think that a team in TCU's shoes should be in but I also believe there are probably at least 6-7 better teams. Time will tell.
 
irish_buffalo said:
And that is what I said. They win out they are in.

Personally I think that a team in TCU's shoes should be in but I also believe there are probably at least 6-7 better teams. Time will tell.
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You think winning the Big12 is the same as winning the American?
 
I see TCU in the #4 slot this weekend only to blow it on Saturday while playing @ Texas. If this happens then Tennessee moves up to #4 so that if they win out they can come in at 3 to probably play the winner of UM/tOSU. If it is a close game I could see the loser at 4 so it turns into an all B1G SEC type semifinal match up in the playoffs. That will really get folks blood going.
 
Auggie said:
I see TCU in the #4 slot this weekend only to blow it on Saturday while playing @ Texas. If this happens then Tennessee moves up to #4 so that if they win out they can come in at 3 to probably play the winner of UM/tOSU. If it is a close game I could see the loser at 4 so it turns into an all B1G SEC type semifinal match up in the playoffs. That will really get folks blood going.
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I think that's probably the most likely scenario. The Pac 12 will likely take themselves out of it as UCLA-USC and Oregon-Utah still need to take place before the Pac 12 Championship Game. TCU still needs to play Texas and Baylor, then will play one of Texas, Baylor, Kansas St or Oklahoma St in the Big 12 Championship. Clemson should finish 11-1, but their resume isn't good and neither is the ACC as a whole. So what you have left is what you proposed above.

I actually don't think as many people would be up in arms because at that point it would be pretty obvious those are the top 4 teams.
 
So much goddamn injustice!

Notre Dame at 20?!?! Are you kidding me??? They just MURDERED the team who’s at #10 in the new rankings. You can’t tell a soul that Clemson is 10 spots better than Notre Dame. Complete BS!

And why on earth is TCU at 4??? Tennessee and Alabama would vaporize that team. Use your goddamn eyes!

Screw this committee! Let’s get some actual Vegas experts into the decision-making seats, not some empty suits serving as ADs.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
Little surprised to not see Liberty crack the rankings, but Florida State and Kentucky are back in. Looks like the G5 rep will again be from the American.

Based on the Rankings, LSU and Oregon both are still alive, question is can they get in on their own merits or will they need help?
-LSU doesn't have a notable ranked matchup left, other than #1 Georgia in the SEC title
-Oregon has #25 Washington next, then #12 Utah, plus the Pac 12 Championship, against one of UCLA, USC or Utah.

If TCU runs the table they're in. Then the question becomes, Tennessee or OSU/Michigan loser?
 
adselder09 said:
Little surprised to not see Liberty crack the rankings, but Florida State and Kentucky are back in. Looks like the G5 rep will again be from the American.

Based on the Rankings, LSU and Oregon both are still alive, question is can they get in on their own merits or will they need help?
-LSU doesn't have a notable ranked matchup left, other than #1 Georgia in the SEC title
-Oregon has #25 Washington next, then #12 Utah, plus the Pac 12 Championship, against one of UCLA, USC or Utah.

If TCU runs the table they're in. Then the question becomes, Tennessee or OSU/Michigan loser?
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Tennessee is EASILY above the Michigan-Ohio State loser. That’s not even debatable.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
Tennessee is EASILY above the Michigan-Ohio State loser. That’s not even debatable.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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If Michigan or Ohio State beats the other on a late 4th Qtr TD or last-second FG, then I think you could see both get in over Tennessee considering how Georgia handled the Vols. Tennessee needs to score 40+ in blowout fashion in their final 3 games in order for them to feel safe.
 
AEW Champion said:
You can laugh all you want, but let’s look at notable non-conference wins for the Big Ten:

Notre Dame (Ohio State)
Auburn (Penn State)
Boston College (Rutgers)
SMU (Maryland)
Virginia (Illinois)
Colorado (Minnesota)

So, aside from Ohio State’s win, the Big Ten didn’t beat anyone of note in non-conference play besides the dregs of Power 5 teams plus a middling mid-major (SMU).

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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And yet the rallying cry for big ten honks is .... no SEC teams will play big ten schools up north in December!!!
 
adselder09 said:
If Michigan or Ohio State beats the other on a late 4th Qtr TD or last-second FG, then I think you could see both get in over Tennessee considering how Georgia handled the Vols. Tennessee needs to score 40+ in blowout fashion in their final 3 games in order for them to feel safe.
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Michigan's weak non-conference schedule will hurt them if they lose to Ohio State. Tennessee beat Alabama and only loss is to Georgia. Vols also have good wins at LSU and a good Kentucky team. Michigan has nothing so far, Penn State at home. that's it.
 
14Red said:
Michigan's weak non-conference schedule will hurt them if they lose to Ohio State. Tennessee beat Alabama and only loss is to Georgia. Vols also have good wins at LSU and a good Kentucky team. Michigan has nothing so far, Penn State at home. that's it.
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I agree to an extent. Of the two Michigan feels like they need the win over OSU to get in. But Penn State shouldn't lose again, they could be top 10 by season's end sitting at 10-2 with all the other attrition between 1-15, specifically Pac 12 and other Championship Games. If Illinois takes care of Purdue this weekend, then they'll be another ranked win for Michigan, this time on the road.

If Tennessee doesn't look the part down the stretch here, that will hurt them. Their resume and big wins won't mean as much if they play down to the level of Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Kentucky could also find themselves out of the CFP Rankings after they host Georgia in a couple of weeks.
 
14Red said:
And yet the rallying cry for big ten honks is .... no SEC teams will play big ten schools up north in December!!!
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The Ohio State fans don’t even want their own team out in the weather in November and December, because their line folds faster than a poker player holding 2-7 offsuit if a team forces them to try to run the ball.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
The Ohio State fans don’t even want their own team out in the weather in November and December, because their line folds faster than a poker player holding 2-7 offsuit if a team forces them to try to run the ball.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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Folds faster than Notre Dame against the Sun Belt.
 
adselder09 said:
I agree to an extent. Of the two Michigan feels like they need the win over OSU to get in. But Penn State shouldn't lose again, they could be top 10 by season's end sitting at 10-2 with all the other attrition between 1-15, specifically Pac 12 and other Championship Games. If Illinois takes care of Purdue this weekend, then they'll be another ranked win for Michigan, this time on the road.

If Tennessee doesn't look the part down the stretch here, that will hurt them. Their resume and big wins won't mean as much if they play down to the level of Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Kentucky could also find themselves out of the CFP Rankings after they host Georgia in a couple of weeks.
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No shade but beating Illinois isn't going to strengthen Michigan's resume. We saw Illinios true colors last week, losing to a struggling Michigan State team. Look, once you dive into these conferences you have some bad teams who are just going to acquire wins against other bad teams. The big ten uses this as a big smoke screen. Penn State is typically always going to win between 8-10 games they lose to Ohio State and (insert whoever is the flavor of the year - Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State). And they pile up wins vs. Rutgers, Purdue, Indiana, Nebraska and the rest of the doormats.
LOOKING ahead, Michigan SHOULD have scheduled a good team from another conference this season to offset the weakness of the league. Big ten teams can't let the league stand for itself.
 
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