2019 MVL Projections

Opponent would need to be Same division as Vandalia for it to be worthwhile. Would also want a team that will typically have more wins than losses for the level two points. Bradford does not meet that criteria.
Actually Oakwood is DIV and not that great. Bellbrook would actually be a better fit but I get what you’re saying.
 

OHFball10

Member
Is it too early for predictions? Here's my first try at predicting 2019 records:

Troy - 10-0 (8-0)
Xenia - 8-2 (6-1)
Butler - 8-2 (6-2)
Tippecanoe - 7-3 (5-3)
Sidney - 6-4 (4-3)
Piqua - 5-5 (4-4)
Fairborn - 4-6 (3-5)
Greenville - 3-7 (2-6)
West Carrollton - 2-8 (1-6)
Stebbins - 0-10 (0-9)

Conference standings will be weird this year with some teams not playing the full 9 game schedule yet. I also have no idea what to expect from Greenville/West Carrollton/Stebbins, but I don't think any of them will be good. The rest will all find themselves in competitive games against one another. I think Troy is the clear #1, and #2 is up for grabs.
 
Is it too early for predictions? Here's my first try at predicting 2019 records:

Troy - 10-0 (8-0)
Xenia - 8-2 (6-1)
Butler - 8-2 (6-2)
Tippecanoe - 7-3 (5-3)
Sidney - 6-4 (4-3)
Piqua - 5-5 (4-4)
Fairborn - 4-6 (3-5)
Greenville - 3-7 (2-6)
West Carrollton - 2-8 (1-6)
Stebbins - 0-10 (0-9)

Conference standings will be weird this year with some teams not playing the full 9 game schedule yet. I also have no idea what to expect from Greenville/West Carrollton/Stebbins, but I don't think any of them will be good. The rest will all find themselves in competitive games against one another. I think Troy is the clear #1, and #2 is up for grabs.
I would be thrilled with Butler finishing anywhere near 7-3 or 8-2. Lost a lot but they do have some really solid players back especially on defense. If they can get the offense going it’s going to be fun.
 

TippIsGreat

Active member
Troy - 8-2
Piqua - 7-3
Tipp - 6-4
Butler - 6-4
Xenia - 6-4
Sidney - 4-6
Fairborn - 3-7
Greenville - 2-8
West Carrollton - 1-9
Stebbins - 0-10
 

Ballboy000

New member
New 2019/20 Male Enrollment Numbers for MVL Teams. Xenia & Butler lost boys. 388 is last years cutoff for moving from D3 to D2. This years cutoff is yet to be calculated.... probably in March. New numbers to the left - Old numbers to the right. Greenville is now the smallest school in the MVL for Male Enrollment.

+10 523 Troy 513
+19 482 Stebbins 463
- 32 476 Xenia 508
+23 463 Fairborn 440
+19 440 Sidney 421
+45 426 Piqua 381
+38 392 West Carrollton 354
- 20 365 Butler 385
+39 335 Tippecanoe 296
+19 334 Greenville 315
 
Last edited:

TippIsGreat

Active member
New 2019/20 Male Enrollment Numbers for MVL Teams. Xenia & Butler lost boys. 388 is last years cutoff for moving from D3 to D2. This years cutoff is yet to be calculated.... probably in March. New numbers to the left - Old numbers to the right. Greenville is now the smallest school in the MVL for Male Enrollment.

+10 523 Troy 513
+19 482 Stebbins 463
- 32 476 Xenia 508
+23 463 Fairborn 440
+19 440 Sidney 421
+45 426 Piqua 381
+38 392 West Carrollton 354
- 20 365 Butler 385
+39 335 Tippecanoe 296
+19 334 Greenville 315
That’s a lot of possible D2 wins for Tipp and Butler. I’m not all that familiar with how Harbins work, it can’t hurt Tipp and Butler that almost all of their games will be against teams in a higher division right?
 

Ballboy000

New member
That’s a lot of possible D2 wins for Tipp and Butler. I’m not all that familiar with how Harbins work, it can’t hurt Tipp and Butler that almost all of their games will be against teams in a higher division right?
Correct - It can definitely help them if they win games over the right teams. Probably want to schedule a pretty good D3 team or higher for out of conference that will win games. Bellbrook has been pretty good the last couple of years. I personally think Trotwood is going to be down over the next few years based on the thinness of their recent Junior High & Freshman teams. Fairborn played them close if that tells you anything. Depends on if they get transfers in. They got a good one last year in a Miamisburg QB Cooper Stewart.
 
Last edited:

OHFball10

Member
That’s a lot of possible D2 wins for Tipp and Butler. I’m not all that familiar with how Harbins work, it can’t hurt Tipp and Butler that almost all of their games will be against teams in a higher division right?
If you ever have some free time and want to learn how they're calculated, just look here: https://ohsaa.org/sports/football/computerrankingsinfo

It's all math based and not too hard to figure out your own. Especially helpful if you want to try and calculate future weeks and see just how possible it is for certain teams to make the playoffs.

But for your question, yes, it is definitely helpful for any team to win games over opponents in as high of a division as possible:

Wins over a Division I school - 6.5 points
Wins over a Division II school - 6.0 points
Wins over a Division III school - 5.5 points
Wins over a Division IV school - 5.0 points
Wins over a Division V school - 4.5 points
Wins over a Division VI school - 4.0 points
Wins over a Division VII school - 3.5 points
Keep in mind that will not be total points allocated in the end, because you take the total from wins based on opponents' division, and divide by number of games played so far. That is just level 1 points. Then you also must calculate level 2.
 
Just noticed that Sidney is over with Fairborn, Stebbins, etc on the Valley side of the MVL. The other old GMVC schools are on the Miami side. Guess it doesn’t matter since everyone will play each other in 2020 but that it was interesting to see them over there.

On another note what do Butler’s numbers look like this year? Can they win the league?
 

TheBenchwarmer

Active member
Just noticed that Sidney is over with Fairborn, Stebbins, etc on the Valley side of the MVL. The other old GMVC schools are on the Miami side. Guess it doesn’t matter since everyone will play each other in 2020 but that it was interesting to see them over there.

On another note what do Butler’s numbers look like this year? Can they win the league?
Vandalia numbers are low but that is t a surprise because we knew the junior and senior classes were smaller. They will be an upper half team probably 6-4 or 7-3. Schedule is full of DII teams so they should be a playoff team.
 

HSsportfan

New member
No one gets in playoffs with a 6-4 record out of the MVL. The schedule alone took away about 20 possible games of 2nd level points. 7-3 might get in if the region is full of 8-2 and 7-3 records. 8-2 will most likely work but it will be a 5-8 seed.
 

TheBenchwarmer

Active member
No one gets in playoffs with a 6-4 record out of the MVL. The schedule alone took away about 20 possible games of 2nd level points. 7-3 might get in if the region is full of 8-2 and 7-3 records. 8-2 will most likely work but it will be a 5-8 seed.
You are correct for the DII teams they will need to be 8-2 / 10-0 for a legit playoff spot. The DIII teams should be business as usual if they can get wins over the DII teams. Vandalia’s win over DII Xenia was pretty much a clincher last year.
 

HSsportfan

New member
Even D3 teams will need all the help they can get. Gaining 0.5 points for a win over a D2 vs D3 is nice. But losing a potential 80 second level points will be interesting. I don’t think 6-4 works in D3 with this league schedule. Unless everyone in D3 is 8-2, 7-3 and I just don’t see that out of this D3 region. It’s loaded and will be hard enough to crack the top 8 at 7-3.
 
Even D3 teams will need all the help they can get. Gaining 0.5 points for a win over a D2 vs D3 is nice. But losing a potential 80 second level points will be interesting. I don’t think 6-4 works in D3 with this league schedule. Unless everyone in D3 is 8-2, 7-3 and I just don’t see that out of this D3 region. It’s loaded and will be hard enough to crack the top 8 at 7-3.
Didn’t realize what the schedule did to the numbers which I guess makes this a True story. Will be interesting to see how this plays out and if this becomes a pain point that the MVL will have to address in the future. Plus there are just some really bad teams that will be on the schedule every year that provide very few points. Better win 8 games if you want a shot at the playoffs and even then you will probably be going on the road in Week 11.
 

yakyak

Active member
Troy
Xenia
PIQUA
Tipp Butler fight for 4th.

Can not see anyone else compete.

After Xenia it will be a bit rough this year. Some good years ahead though.
 

TippIsGreat

Active member
The top 5 teams in the league are a given, Butler, Piqua, Tipp, Troy and Xenia. I think Xenia will be the best team in the league and the rest will fight it out every week. Tipp has some good athletes this year, the biggest question mark is there offensive line. I’m not sure if they have the depth to beat all 4 of the other top 5. Fortunately, I know they are going to be one of the best coached teams in the conference and will make games out of everyone in their schedule
 

yakyak

Active member
The top 5 teams in the league are a given, Butler, Piqua, Tipp, Troy and Xenia. I think Xenia will be the best team in the league and the rest will fight it out every week. Tipp has some good athletes this year, the biggest question mark is there offensive line. I’m not sure if they have the depth to beat all 4 of the other top 5. Fortunately, I know they are going to be one of the best coached teams in the conference and will make games out of everyone in their schedule
The top 5 teams in the league are a given, Butler, Piqua, Tipp, Troy and Xenia. I think Xenia will be the best team in the league and the rest will fight it out every week. Tipp has some good athletes this year, the biggest question mark is there offensive line. I’m not sure if they have the depth to beat all 4 of the other top 5. Fortunately, I know they are going to be one of the best coached teams in the conference and will make games out of everyone in their schedule
Agree. Even though overall talent is down, the parody might be at pretty even level. That will make some very exciting games. I am a bit worried Xenia will walk way reading some things. You have to put Troy up there, the JR. and Seniors just dont know what it means to lose. That has to mean something.

I worry come playoff time our league will look poor for a few years :-(
 

OHFball10

Member
So who are MVL teams scrimmaging against here in the next few weeks? It'll be interesting to see how some teams stack up against real competition vs. preseason expectations.
 

BlessEmAll

Moderator
Seems that Tipp has something to prove this year. Troy will win it but next year and in 21 they won't. I see Tipp, Piqua and maybe even Butler moving up.
Troy will be strong but Burgbacher was the difference for the Trojans.
Butler is a school that should be great every year but they struggle. give this league a few years to mold and develop. You might see a rotating schedule to open up a second ooc game. Kinda like the MAC.
Here is my shot at the first MVL
T
roy
Piqua
Tipp
Butler
Xenia
Sidney
Fairborn
Stebbins
Greenville
West Carrollton

 

yakyak

Active member
Seems that Tipp has something to prove this year. Troy will win it but next year and in 21 they won't. I see Tipp, Piqua and maybe even Butler moving up.
Troy will be strong but Burgbacher was the difference for the Trojans.
Butler is a school that should be great every year but they struggle. give this league a few years to mold and develop. You might see a rotating schedule to open up a second ooc game. Kinda like the MAC.
Here is my shot at the first MVL
T
roy
Piqua
Tipp

Butler
Xenia
Sidney
Fairborn
Stebbins
Greenville
West Carrollton
You have xenia way underrated. Stop loving on route 571, Tipp celing is third place and no playoffs even with Woddy Hayes coaching.
 

InTheDarke

Active member
I feel like this is going to be a race between Troy and Xenia. I can't believe that's a ridiculous thought. It's certainly plausible. I can't really buy Butler until they actually do something beyond mediocre. Beyond that, Piqua, Tipp, and everyone else. I just hope they're working on pulling in two more schools and having a tidy 5 game schedule with two crossovers for everyone, and 3 non con games. Otherwise, until then I think they need to grit their teeth and play 9 games without these weird divisions until that happens.
 

OHFball10

Member
According to the schedule I can find, Tipp is scrimmaging Tecumseh.

Their first 2 weeks of the regular season are on the road, and as far as I understand, it's a good thing they're not at home, because construction at the park is not completed yet. This offseason was/is the concession/restroom project, and if that's not completed it could cause a big headache.
 
Vandalia numbers are low but that is t a surprise because we knew the junior and senior classes were smaller. They will be an upper half team probably 6-4 or 7-3. Schedule is full of DII teams so they should be a playoff team.
Smaller? Why dont you tell the truth. We have 15 total juniors and seniors. We will be starting freshmen this year. That isnt a good thing. You and I both know why the numbers are low. Then having all workouts camps and practices at 6am didnt make things better. Puckett is a good coach but we will be lucky to win 5 games and more like win 3 games.
 

yakyak

Active member
W
Smaller? Why dont you tell the truth. We have 15 total juniors and seniors. We will be starting freshmen this year. That isnt a good thing. You and I both know why the numbers are low. Then having all workouts camps and practices at 6am didnt make things better. Puckett is a good coach but we will be lucky to win 5 games and more like win 3 games.
Why are numbers low again?

You are the worst.
 
W
Why are numbers low again?

You are the worst.
They are low because those are the kids that were freshmen and sophmores under Hyatt. He killed those two classes. They werent good to start and then he drove them off. If you are trying to get numbers up having lifting and practice at 6am cant help.

You really think with just 15 juniors seniors we will make the playoffs?
 
.
Top