No High School Football 2020

[Irish60]

I am not a Trump supporter, but I think this statement is pretty myopic. There is enough blame to go around. China, WHO, the president, Congress, governors, etc.

The only way we get through this is if we get beyond the political showmanship that everyone is engaging in. This is an incredible complex and fluid situation, and they are all failing.

I can agree with this. The problem is everyone seems more interested in trying to blame someone else (or should I say, be sure they aren't getting any blame themselves!) than they are in finding solutions. This is always the way of politics, but it is especially reprehensible when so many people are suffering because of this crisis. The time to assign blame is NOT today! There will be plenty of time for the post mortem later. Now is the time for leaders to lead. And we are seeing an incredible lack of performance in that category! Actually, DeWine, for all the hand wringing, has at least been consistent in his approach to this matter. And, too, the media certainly has their fair share of fault in this mess. They have 24 hours of air space to fill and not a whole helluva lot else to talk about. They have an essentially "captive" audience that is desperate for information. And they spend hours parsing every word or "what if" or conspiracy theory they can get their hands on to feed to the public. If it were up to me, I would stop these daily briefings, on both the federal and state levels, until there is actually something to report. As it is, it is just a rehash of things we already know (or, should I say, of things we know that we don't know!). And it becomes just another forum for bickering and finger pointing and grandstanding.

 

[John74]

I can agree with this. The problem is everyone seems more interested in trying to blame someone else (or should I say, be sure they aren't getting any blame themselves!) than they are in finding solutions. This is always the way of politics, but it is especially reprehensible when so many people are suffering because of this crisis. The time to assign blame is NOT today! There will be plenty of time for the post mortem later. Now is the time for leaders to lead. And we are seeing an incredible lack of performance in that category! Actually, DeWine, for all the hand wringing, has at least been consistent in his approach to this matter. And, too, the media certainly has their fair share of fault in this mess. They have 24 hours of air space to fill and not a whole helluva lot else to talk about. They have an essentially "captive" audience that is desperate for information. And they spend hours parsing every word or "what if" or conspiracy theory they can get their hands on to feed to the public. If it were up to me, I would stop these daily briefings, on both the federal and state levels, until there is actually something to report. As it is, it is just a rehash of things we already know (or, should I say, of things we know that we don't know!). And it becomes just another forum for bickering and finger pointing and grandstanding.

Excellent post!

 

[LHS02]

I am not good at science. Never was, never will be. So a few questions. How long does it normally take to develop a vaccine? I get a flu shot every year. My doctor tells me that its a different shot every year because its a different strain of flu. So how do they know what kind of shot to develop and how do they test it before giving it out to the public? Is it just a crap shoot every year?

If a vaccine takes a long time to develop, would we not be better off trying to develop an effective treatment? If there was an effective treatment, those that got sick would have a much greater chance at getting healthy. Since the vast majority of those infected don't end up in the hospital or dying, would this be a better use of resources?

 

[John74]

I am not good at science. Never was, never will be. So a few questions. How long does it normally take to develop a vaccine? I get a flu shot every year. My doctor tells me that its a different shot every year because its a different strain of flu. So how do they know what kind of shot to develop and how do they test it before giving it out to the public? Is it just a crap shoot every year?

If a vaccine takes a long time to develop, would we not be better off trying to develop an effective treatment? If there was an effective treatment, those that got sick would have a much greater chance at getting healthy. Since the vast majority of those infected don't end up in the hospital or dying, would this be a better use of resources?

This is a link from the CDC that discusses the process...

Selecting Viruses for the Seasonal Flu Vaccine

Vaccine composition is reviewed each year and updated as needed based on which influenza viruses are making people sick.

www.cdc.gov

 

[LHS02]

Thanks!

 

[rossford_resident]

I am not good at science. Never was, never will be. So a few questions. How long does it normally take to develop a vaccine? I get a flu shot every year. My doctor tells me that its a different shot every year because its a different strain of flu. So how do they know what kind of shot to develop and how do they test it before giving it out to the public? Is it just a crap shoot every year?

If a vaccine takes a long time to develop, would we not be better off trying to develop an effective treatment? If there was an effective treatment, those that got sick would have a much greater chance at getting healthy. Since the vast majority of those infected don't end up in the hospital or dying, would this be a better use of resources?

I have heard 18 months best-case scenario. The record to this point is four years.

Agree about an effective treatment/intervention. Hopefully that is being worked on behind the scenes. Even if a vaccine is developed, scaling up production to make it available for 300 million people will take some time.

Criticism of the federal response as compared to South Korea is pointless, IMO. Contact tracing to the extent that they've been able to do it would be impossible here. We are also not culturally compatible with quarantining people who test positive and are asymptomatic for 14 days in a dormitory/hotel/whatever away from work or their families. It just isn't possible.

I read an article today about the potential to identify people who are ill but not showing symptoms and treating them before they crash and require ventilation by using pulse oximetry to test oxygen levels in their blood. Some combination of early intervention - maybe through walk-in clinics that can do temperature/pulse oximetry checks in a minute or two - and treatment that can at least prevent a percentage of serious illness/death would go a long way to helping us get back to some semblance of normal.

 

[John74]

Thanks!

So back to your original question about developing the Covid vaccine in 18 months, I hope and pray they can do it, but I am very pessimistic about it. Influenza has had all of the data and mechanisms for surveillance in place for many decades, yet they usually hit about 50% on effectiveness. Multiply that by only 50% of the people that actually get the vaccine, and it has a pretty low effectiveness rate. Plus they have many of the processes and materials in place to make each year’s vaccine, and it still takes 6-months. For Covid, there is virtually nothing other than some aborted attempts for vaccines against SARS and MERS.

 

[John74]

I have heard 18 months best-case scenario. The record to this point is four years.

Agree about an effective treatment/intervention. Hopefully that is being worked on behind the scenes. Even if a vaccine is developed, scaling up production to make it available for 300 million people will take some time.

Criticism of the federal response as compared to South Korea is pointless, IMO. Contact tracing to the extent that they've been able to do it would be impossible here. We are also not culturally compatible with quarantining people who test positive and are asymptomatic for 14 days in a dormitory/hotel/whatever away from work or their families. It just isn't possible.

I read an article today about the potential to identify people who are ill but not showing symptoms and treating them before they crash and require ventilation by using pulse oximetry to test oxygen levels in their blood. Some combination of early intervention - maybe through walk-in clinics that can do temperature/pulse oximetry checks in a minute or two - and treatment that can at least prevent a percentage of serious illness/death would go a long way to helping us get back to some semblance of normal.

That is key. Wide spread, easy, antigen testing so that we can see what this really is. We really do not know at this point. If we could do enough testing regionally with enough samples, we would really understand the death rate and how contagious it really is.

 

[rossford_resident]

That is key. Wide spread, easy, antigen testing so that we can see what this really is. We really do not know at this point. If we could do enough testing regionally with enough samples, we would really understand the death rate and how contagious it really is.

Yep. Gotta be able to determine who's already had it, if they are now immune, and if there's a way to intervene when people first get it to keep them from becoming critically ill. The article I read in the NY Times talked about people not feeling short of breath but having oxygen saturation levels near 50%. If you can exhale CO2 you apparently don't feel short of breath, even if your lungs are deteriorating.

 

[TigerPaw]

So back to your original question about developing the Covid vaccine in 18 months, I hope and pray they can do it, but I am very pessimistic about it. Influenza has had all of the data and mechanisms for surveillance in place for many decades, yet they usually hit about 50% on effectiveness. Multiply that by only 50% of the people that actually get the vaccine, and it has a pretty low effectiveness rate. Plus they have many of the processes and materials in place to make each year’s vaccine, and it still takes 6-months. For Covid, there is virtually nothing other than some aborted attempts for vaccines against SARS and MERS.

We don't know nearly enough to be pessimistic or not. Flu mutates into different strains that take constant updates and we're often behind, incorporating last year's strain into this year's vaccine, rinse repeat. Other vaccines are able to corner the virus. For instance measles vaccine is pretty effective and hasn't changed for decades. I don't know how they know but thought I heard Fauci, I think, said he believed since so many people all over the world have basically the same single strain he thinks it does not alter itself much, and therefore a vaccine against this would be more effective than one vs. common flu, which alters itself alot.

 

[John74]

Yep. Gotta be able to determine who's already had it, if they are now immune, and if there's a way to intervene when people first get it to keep them from becoming critically ill. The article I read in the NY Times talked about people not feeling short of breath but having oxygen saturation levels near 50%. If you can exhale CO2 you apparently don't feel short of breath, even if your lungs are deteriorating.

Yes, and there have been three studies come out the last couple of days, from USC, Stanford, and somewhere in New England I believe, that show the infection rate may be way beyond what we know. I believe there is some concern that these weren’t true blind studies, but it does show a path.

And from what I have been reading, I don’t believe the lack of antigen testing is because of malicious intent. The first group to go out were found to potentially be contaminated by Covid material because process wasn’t followed during manufacturing. The second group gave positives on Covid19 and the other main Covid, the common cold. The third group to go out had some quality control issues.

I am an inherent geek, so when I see things that interest me, I try to find as much real information as possible. What I’ve learned so far is this stuff is incredibly hard. An infinite number of scenarios impacting an incredibly diverse population. This virus has only been known for a few months. It’s a flash in the pan and the scientists and medical staffs are doing heroic things.

 

[John74]

We don't know nearly enough to be pessimistic or not. Flu mutates into different strains that take constant updates and we're often behind, incorporating last year's strain into this year's vaccine, rinse repeat. Other vaccines are able to corner the virus. For instance measles vaccine is pretty effective and hasn't changed for decades. I don't know how they know but thought I heard Fauci, I think, said he believed since so many people all over the world have basically the same single strain he thinks it does not alter itself much, and therefore a vaccine against this would be more effective than one vs. common flu, which alters itself alot.

Good point. Hopefully it remains stable. But to counter, the measles vaccine took years to develop. Things weren’t as advanced back then, but vaccines take a tremendous effort even today. And our starting point for Covid19 is pretty limited.

And my posts aren’t meant to be confrontational or negative. I see more and more people are hanging their hat on the 12-18 month timeframe. I hope and pray they can hit that. But, we need to be making contingency plans if this does not come to fruition.

 

[doubtme]

You say testing isn’t a priority, but where do you get the information to make that statement? Could it be t


You do realize that with no economy, there is a huge reduction in tax revenue, right? So the government is destroying its only source of revenue to gain more control. Interesting take. This hasn’t even begun to show its full impact. When we come out of this, there will be a huge wake up call. Layoffs and reductions in government provided services such as police, fire and health will happen. Local schools will see enormous loss of revenue due to foreclosures and lowering of property values. Colleges have already done mass layoffs of non essential staff and adjunct faculty.

this is one of my greatest fears with this and it won't start to occur until next year sometime.. so it will be delayed and be devastating to be honest

 

[doubtme]

Some sources? Tinhats? We just don't need ridiculous conspiracy theories at this time.

they have done autopsies on people who died from Covid 19 and some who had died from the Flu. They found some who died with flu actually died from Covid and in one instance, a guy was positive for Covid, but autopsy showed bacteria pneumonia killed him

Lessons from Two COVID-19 Autopsies

First English-language publication offers insights into pathology and cause of death

consultqd.clevelandclinic.org

 

[TigerPaw]

Good point. Hopefully it remains stable. But to counter, the measles vaccine took years to develop. Things weren’t as advanced back then, but vaccines take a tremendous effort even today. And our starting point for Covid19 is pretty limited.

And my posts aren’t meant to be confrontational or negative. I see more and more people are hanging their hat on the 12-18 month timeframe. I hope and pray they can hit that. But, we need to be making contingency plans if this does not come to fruition.

Many are making contingency plans. Many however are not, and believe we should not. "Let it wash over us, then like a miracle will disappear" - whatever that means. What we need and should have is a unified cohesive response. That is what infuriates me. And as I've said million times (prolly because I'm on a staff of an essential business in charge of 100 employees working in close proximity) per our current contingency we need ppe supplies! All the stories growing up about our country, when called upon, marshaled resources to build tanks planes and bombs overnight. Today how many weeks into this thing we still can't marshal hand sanitizer??? Swabs? A thermometer? It's pathetic.

 

[TigerPaw]

they have done autopsies on people who died from Covid 19 and some who had died from the Flu. They found some who died with flu actually died from Covid and in one instance, a guy was positive for Covid, but autopsy showed bacteria pneumonia killed him

Lessons from Two COVID-19 Autopsies

First English-language publication offers insights into pathology and cause of death

consultqd.clevelandclinic.org

Hearing many stories from people who were very sick in Dec and Jan who now swear they had covid. May never know. Maybe with antibody testing? The first reported case traces back to Nov. 17 in China, but again who knows could have been Sept.

 

[Harrycrane]

Many are making contingency plans. Many however are not, and believe we should not. "Let it wash over us, then like a miracle will disappear" - whatever that means. What we need and should have is a unified cohesive response. That is what infuriates me. And as I've said million times (prolly because I'm on a staff of an essential business in charge of 100 employees working in close proximity) per our current contingency we need ppe supplies! All the stories growing up about our country, when called upon, marshaled resources to build tanks planes and bombs overnight. Today how many weeks into this thing we still can't marshal hand sanitizer??? Swabs? A thermometer? It's pathetic.

Yes it is . Kind of predictable unfortunately and some still think we have handled this great . South Korea albeit smaller had their first case the same time we did , they are open for business for the most part. We aren't real close overall . Hmm .

 

[John74]

Many are making contingency plans. Many however are not, and believe we should not. "Let it wash over us, then like a miracle will disappear" - whatever that means. What we need and should have is a unified cohesive response. That is what infuriates me. And as I've said million times (prolly because I'm on a staff of an essential business in charge of 100 employees working in close proximity) per our current contingency we need ppe supplies! All the stories growing up about our country, when called upon, marshaled resources to build tanks planes and bombs overnight. Today how many weeks into this thing we still can't marshal hand sanitizer??? Swabs? A thermometer? It's pathetic.

You are absolutely right, it is pathetic. But we need to be honest where that comes from. Medical devices and food and drug manufacturing has an incredible amount of oversight and red tape. Oversight that is needed for our protection in normal times, but also inhibits us from responding effectively during a crisis. I’ve been an executive in both aerospace and the medical industry, and I left those positions because the oversight was extreme, counterproductive, and made the end product worse. In WW2, there wasn’t this kind of oversight. Just American companies rolling their sleeves up and getting the job done. Sure, there was profiteering, but they got it done. Legally, today, these companies can’t just go from making cars one day to making ventilators the next. And I’m not saying get rid of oversight, but it needs streamlined.

And that’s where I go back to the overall blame. Did New York need 40,000 ventilators. No way. Heck, now they are saying ventilators may be contraindicated except for the most dire cases. Yet, for days Cuomo and Trump had a political spat about it. Both acting like children and trying to score political points. Takes their eyes off the ball and impacts our society negatively.

It will take strong, bipartisan leadership to get through this, break down barriers, and be successful. We don’t have it right now.

 

[John74]

Yes it is . Kind of predictable unfortunately and some still think we have handled this great . South Korea albeit smaller had their first case the same time we did , they are open for business for the most part. We aren't real close overall . Hmm .

You cannot discount cultural factors into South Korea and Japan’s results. Compared to them, our numbers are bad. Compared to European countries, we are better than most by quite a bit. There is a distinct difference. Wearing of face masks and the common good versus individualism are two key cultural differences that have a direct impact.

 

[Lancer_Reups]

It does not effect children who don't have a problem and you are not going to jeapordise all the eduction for one child

Stay positive Mr. Doom and Gloom, stop speculating!

I really think people in this forum are confusing "doom and gloom" with reality.

Football is king, no other sports will operate this Fall if Football does not. As stated earlier, to save money, all assistants from all staffs for fall sports will be cut, and they will let these people, have to, let them know mid-summer so they have some type of possibility can make up for the money lost.

In addition, which is making the most sense...we can't just expect athletes to show up mid August or after Labor Day for school and ready to play. It would be almost more damaging for many kids to participate than not.

I AM PUTTING THIS IN BOLD BECAUSE I DON'T KNOW WHY PEOPLE ARE IGNORING THIS, BUT COLLEGES ARE GOING TO ANNOUNCE IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS THAT THERE WILL BE NO CLASSES WITH STUDENTS ON CAMPUS. NO STUDENTS ON CAMPUS MEANS NO FOOTBALL:

https://247sports.com/Article/big-1...-sports-without-students-on-campus-146164430/

Think the Big 12 is amateur hour? Then read this on the SEC:

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/werent-worried-college-football-starting-before-should-be-now-2020/

If collegiate sports aren't in operation, neither will be high school sports for the same reason. Even more important was DeWine saying "Blended Learning", it's all we are going to hear about for months. It is a solution even in rural communities with kids with no Internet....they can still go to school twice a week. Getting a degree is more important than getting a touchdown on Friday Night. Be prepared for that propaganda and the continued comparisons to World War II and what not.

Wake up everyone. This isn't speculation, it's a reality.

SO YOU ARE SAYING THE GOVERNMENT JEPORDIZING PEOPLES LIVELIEHOODS, C'MON WAKE UP THIS IS STARTING TO SUBSIDE.

 

[brianwr112]

SO YOU ARE SAYING THE GOVERNMENT JEPORDIZING PEOPLES LIVELIEHOODS, C'MON WAKE UP THIS IS STARTING TO SUBSIDE.

Sorry you're having issues dealing with the probability that there won't be a HS football season next year. Sucks and you can say it's gloom and doom all you want but things aren't subsiding at all. Numbers are going up and continue to go up as more testing is available. Not to compare schools and prisons but they share a lot of the same physical limitations. They were able to test most at the Marion Prison and the numbers were unimaginable. many without symptoms. Schools will actually spread the virus quicker. Jails they're somewhat confined outside of staff coming and going.

With schools they all gather together, pass this along and we really have problems. Sure the kids might be fine but what about parents, staff, refs and etc. Currently I'd say there may be a 20% chance there's a HS season next year.

 

[Harrycrane]

Sorry you're having issues dealing with the probability that there won't be a HS football season next year. Sucks and you can say it's gloom and doom all you want but things aren't subsiding at all. Numbers are going up and continue to go up as more testing is available. Not to compare schools and prisons but they share a lot of the same physical limitations. They were able to test most at the Marion Prison and the numbers were unimaginable. many without symptoms. Schools will actually spread the virus quicker. Jails they're somewhat confined outside of staff coming and going.

With schools they all gather together, pass this along and we really have problems. Sure the kids might be fine but what about parents, staff, refs and etc. Currently I'd say there may be a 20% chance there's a HS season next year.

So does anyone have the number of High school kids who actually tested positive or got sick ? Schools weren't closed until what ? The 13th was it? Virus was here at that point. I am curious how many HS kids caught the virus overall not only here but nationwide.

 

[John74]

In what way are vastly superior to Most of Europe in our handling of this ?

I wouldn’t say vastly superior, but different. I can only speak about Japan from personal experience, Face masks are very prevalent even in normal times. Also, there reaction time and willingness to shelter in place is different. Many outbreaks start in the Far East, and the countries in close proximity have an expectation that this can happen and respond accordingly.

 

[brianwr112]

So does anyone have the number of High school kids who actually tested positive or got sick ? Schools weren't closed until what ? The 13th was it? Virus was here at that point. I am curious how many HS kids caught the virus overall not only here but nationwide.

HS kids wouldn't be tested unless they showed extreme symptoms. Tests are currently being saved for those most sick, front lines or symptoms in a high risk category. People are spreading it without knowing. And that's why we won't have football or classes as normal in the Fall. The tests and studies won't be available by then. let alone an emergency vaccine.

 

[Harrycrane]

Yes it never is the time for citing reasons we have failed at this . unless ? You get the picture. I understand assigning blame isn't going to make up for the months of incompetence and performance that happened in a country that was deemed in 2018 as the top country who would be able to handle such a pandemic . I guess the execution was a bit off and everyone besides this country is more to blame . Plenty of blame that we had no control over I guess will be the take of the 35 percent of the country

 

[Harrycrane]

I wouldn’t say vastly superior, but different. I can only speak about Japan from personal experience, Face masks are very prevalent even in normal times. Also, there reaction time and willingness to shelter in place is different. Many outbreaks start in the Far East, and the countries in close proximity have an expectation that this can happen and respond accordingly.

Yes that's right , we had no idea this was coming{ sarcasm }

 

[John74]

Yes that's right , we had no idea this was coming{ sarcasm }

What’s that supposed to mean? I never said it’s right or wrong, but it is different. I have very strong views on this lockdown in regards to its long term effectiveness and its impact on our society, but spouting self righteous opinionated garbage won’t sway anyone.

 

[Harrycrane]

HS kids wouldn't be tested unless they showed extreme symptoms. Tests are currently being saved for those most sick, front lines or symptoms in a high risk category. People are spreading it without knowing. And that's why we won't have football or classes as normal in the Fall. The tests and studies won't be available by then. let alone an emergency vaccine.

So why haven't we had the testing that many other places have had and has helped them track and isolate the positive tests? We continue to dawdle and waste time , so there is no way we have anything anytime soon. I say just cancel it now so some can get their affairs in order so to speak , may be make alternate plans may be? I don't fault Dewine for playing it safe, he can't ever be faulted for playing it safe and just closing schools for a year or so and having zero sports at all in 20-21 . Some will fault but he can just say he was concerned for the kids staff and others well being and eh won['t be wrong . teachers will be out of work financial hits will take place, kids , kids will miss some opportunities and even a normal HS existence but they will be safe and if not it won't be his fault . So that's that I suppose .

 

[Harrycrane]

What’s that supposed to mean? I never said it’s right or wrong, but it is different. I have very strong views on this lockdown in regards to its long term effectiveness and its impact on our society, but spouting self righteous opinionated garbage won’t sway anyone.

I just said we didn't see it coming obviously. Nothing self righteous at all . Our President thought it would blow away in April's warmth and was contained in Mid march , so we were blindsided I am told and this proves that we were? . OK so as a result we won't have any sports for a long while . Suks.

 

[Harrycrane]

What’s that supposed to mean? I never said it’s right or wrong, but it is different. I have very strong views on this lockdown in regards to its long term effectiveness and its impact on our society, but spouting self righteous opinionated garbage won’t sway anyone.

So how long should we stay home ? and what impact do you see it having? I think another few weeks { or even a month } of this more extreme discipline is in order even given the pain and frustration some feel . Baby step easing , and hopefully by the end of the summer the numbers look much better I guess in my best case scenario , I see 'May Be " getting back to school in a careful way in October with may be a short football season ? I have heard that it is likely all or nothing and all is a miracle , so I am resigned to nothing happening at all .