Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic spreads from China to US

Yappi said:
Italy is starting to look like it has peaked. It has been around the same number of new cases and deaths for the last 4-5 days.

So this will probably be how things look for the next couple of months. The hot spots will peak and hopefully start to decline and a new hot spot will open. New York appears to be the new hot spot. Anyone's guess is where it will hit hardest next.
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New Orleans and Florida.

Italy was fairly successful with their social distancing...quarantines. All the handrail lickers and dipchips like Falwell are going to extend the crisis in the US.
 
BlueJayFan said:
Obviously they lied
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And still are. My friend with family in China said that they have stopped testing people in the Wuhan area so anyone infected is no longer in their count. She said manufacturing is only 30%-40% back up and running. China's new ploy is testing only people coming into the country in order to lay the blame on someone else.

By the way I apologize if you interpret this as 'fear mongering". I'm just relaying information from someone who has people close to the situation.
 
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Yappi said:
Italy is starting to look like it has peaked. It has been around the same number of new cases and deaths for the last 4-5 days.

So this will probably be how things look for the next couple of months. The hot spots will peak and hopefully start to decline and a new hot spot will open. New York appears to be the new hot spot. Anyone's guess is where it will hit hardest next.
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It seems to me there is a massive underestimation of how quickly this virus spread and a huge overestimation about its danger. It is likely nearing peak spread in the places seeing the most cases. The next few of weeks will continue to see increases and plateaus due to the incubation period but by the end of May I think this will largely be done with, barring some kind of crazy mutation.
 
Yappi said:
Italy is starting to look like it has peaked. It has been around the same number of new cases and deaths for the last 4-5 days.

So this will probably be how things look for the next couple of months. The hot spots will peak and hopefully start to decline and a new hot spot will open. New York appears to be the new hot spot. Anyone's guess is where it will hit hardest next.
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Italy (and everywhere) are bound to peak relatively quickly if this virus is allowed to run it's course without containment. It's extremely contagious so the most susceptible individuals will have already been exposed by this point. There's only so many people in Italy.
 
One thing that concerns me about Ohio (and Northeast Ohio in particular) is poor air quality. Obviously poor air quality is something that does not mix with a respiratory disease. China and Italy (Northern Italy in particular which was hardest hit) have terrible air quality. I wonder if the poor air quality isn't a big factor in the areas experiencing the highest morbidity rates...
 
eastside_purple said:
Just curious, do you think the Italian economy doesn’t take a huge hit anyway with a virus of this magnitude and people flooding the healthcare system? And that’s with mitigation. What if they took no action? It would be chaos.
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I've worked with companies in Italy in recent years and their economy sucked anyway with all the Government regulation so it wouldn't take much to make it tank more.
 
Anecdotal, I'm pretty sure I had it over the weekend, starting Friday night. Sudden chills, a tightness in my chest, and slight cough. Took zinc, vitamin C, and Aleve. Back to normal today. I had a worse illness after Christmas, in all honesty. Had me in bed for almost a week and left lingering congestion for another.
 
Crusaders said:
Selectively. There are many, many people in a panic because they don't understand what's going on, and that's the media's fault for selectively reporting numbers and facts.
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BS. What is Spain’s average age? How do you explain away their case fatality rate now trending to 8%?
 
It is starting to look more and more like the US has handled this virus worse than almost any other country...

COVID-19 chart.jpg
 
Happygoluckky said:
New Orleans and Florida.

Italy was fairly successful with their social distancing...quarantines. All the handrail lickers and dipchips like Falwell are going to extend the crisis in the US.
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I don't think anyone is going to "extend the crisis", rather, I think they will make things worse for the short term. But this is going to be a long term problem until the vaccine is ready.

My gut says this is going to be bad in the short term. Things will get better over the late Spring and Summer and then we will see a second wave starting in the late Fall running all the way through the Winter. The hope is that the Vaccine comes sooner than later. I also don't see anymore wide shutdowns in the future. I think we will have targetted shutdowns like a school that has an outbreak will close for a couple weeks while other schools in the county remain open.

I suspect that Chicago, Detroit, Denver, and Philadelphia may be the next big hot spots.
 
OhioBobcatFan06 said:
One thing that concerns me about Ohio (and Northeast Ohio in particular) is poor air quality. Obviously poor air quality is something that does not mix with a respiratory disease. China and Italy (Northern Italy in particular which was hardest hit) have terrible air quality. I wonder if the poor air quality isn't a big factor in the areas experiencing the highest morbidity rates...
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We have been saved by the EPA and cig taxes. Yay, Dems!!
 
Happygoluckky said:
It is starting to look more and more like the US has handled this virus worse than almost any other country...

View attachment 6449
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I would think there are far more data points that are needed to determine who has done a good job and who hasn't. Death rate would probably be a better indicator of success or failure.

Based on this limited data, is it fair to say that New York City has done the worst of any place in America? Or even the World? They will soon be challenging Wuhan for most cases.
 
Yappi said:
I would think there are far more data points that are needed to determine who has done a good job and who hasn't. Death rate would probably be a better indicator of success or failure.

Based on this limited data, is it fair to say that New York City has done the worst of any place in America? Or even the World? They will soon be challenging Wuhan for most cases.
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Agree. US started testing late, took some mitigation measure, and now NY is doing more testing than nearly any country, so they are driving that trend.
 
Happygoluckky said:
Europe and even Iran are doing better. Democracies in Asia handled well...South Korea's testing and management has been far better than any part of the US.
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Do you think the testing rate is equal across the globe?

I think it is obvious that some countries and states are testing only those that are severely sick (Ohio is a good example with 25% hospitilization).

Others like New York are testing everyone that shows any symptoms. A country that tests 100,000 and comes back with 10,000 positives isn't necessarily worse than the country that tested 9,000 that came back with 9,000 positives.

"New cases" can be influenced heavily by how many tests are given. "Daily deaths" can also be manipulated but it is much more difficult to ignore a newly dead person than someone walking around with the sniffles.
 
Yappi said:
I would think there are far more data points that are needed to determine who has done a good job and who hasn't. Death rate would probably be a better indicator of success or failure.

Based on this limited data, is it fair to say that New York City has done the worst of any place in America? Or even the World? They will soon be challenging Wuhan for most cases.
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I agree.

Governor Cuomo's handling of New York has been abyssmal. NYC is huge and dirty. Many people living very closely with old steam heat systems lacking in air filtration. Global travel habits, far-flung visitors. A population dependent upon mass transit. Yet far behind Dewine in closures of all types.

Abject failure in NY.
 
Yappi said:
Agreed. New York isn't doing a bad job because they are finding more cases. They are doing a good job by finding them all and still minimizing deaths.
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Agree. The issue is they really should have been heavily testing in Feb to have headed this off. But it’s still important to control it as much as possible at this point.
 
OhioBobcatFan06 said:
e-check is a commie plot
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Actually, the commie solution I saw on 60 Minutes was far better. Infrared exhaust cams at intersections identifying polluters, notifying them, and directing them to a school auto shop for a budget repair if they were broke or cheap. University of Colorado project, iirc.

The best part was the EPA honk basically saying Have a nice day!!! when the reporter tried to solicit comment.

You were like 10 or so back then, I guess, so you were on the Nintendo when it aired. Must have missed it.
 
eastside_purple said:
Saying Iran is handling it better is just dumb.
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True I should rephrase based on info available it is spreading more quickly in the US than Iran. (not sure we can trust data from Iran) My point is we are becoming an outlier on the current path and pulling back on social distancing is not a great plan.
 
Happygoluckky said:
True I should rephrase based on info available it is spreading more quickly in the US than Iran. (not sure we can trust data from Iran) My point is we are becoming an outlier on the current path and pulling back on social distancing is not a great plan.
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No doubt pulling back on social distancing in the near term is dumb. A smart return to work strategy needs to be employed to not let this really get out of control fast.
 
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