The Official 2020 Cincinnati Reds Thread
- Thread starter Indiandad
- Start date
Red14
Well-known member
That's a good start!! I'd be ok with going after either of these two, I'd say Castellanos first. Ozuna seems to get hurt some.
I'm not real exicted about Grandal, who's been mentioned. I just feel that catcher is a position where injuries just happen too often. We just got away from the Devin Mesoraco debacle. Our current catching situation is ok.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
Current catchers suck. lol.
Ouch
Catcher definitely needs upgraded.
The Padres have said they will be looking to package multiple prospects to add pitching, create 40 man space and possibly reduce payroll in order to add a FA. They've also said their top 3 prospects are untouchable. They have 2 candidates for salary relief, Will Meyers and Eric Hosmer. Both are coming off bad years.
Will Myers might make an interesting fit in Cincinnati. He'd probably be a .270/.350/.475 type guy with 25 HR and 90 RBI. He comes with 22.5M owed for 3 more seasons. Definitely a hefty price tag but probably not a lot more than Nicholas Castellanos will cost. If you could use that contract to pry a couple of young prospects from San Diego it might be a good move.
Boston is also trying to reduce payroll and is looking to move David Price. Perhaps 3 team trade. Bauer to SD. Myers and a top 10 prospect to Cincinnati, a low level flyer prospect to Boston. Boston sends Price to Cincy along with 12M a year for 3 years.
SD gets a high end starting pitcher coming off a down year and they save 5M.
Boston saves enough money to get below the cap this season and gets a flyer prospect.
Cincinnati gets a OF bat controlled thru his prime years for 3 more seasons with a 4 year team option. They also replace Bauer with a controlled pitcher for 3 more seasons. They also receive a high end prospect to debut in conjunction with Greene and Stephenson. The Reds payroll would see a net increase of ~24M.
Suarez, Votto, Myers, Price, Castillo, Gray, Senzel, Winker/Ervin would all be controlled for at least 3 more seasons. The Reds would have enough payflex left to sign either Gregorious or Grandall and still get a reliever or two.
Will Myers might make an interesting fit in Cincinnati. He'd probably be a .270/.350/.475 type guy with 25 HR and 90 RBI. He comes with 22.5M owed for 3 more seasons. Definitely a hefty price tag but probably not a lot more than Nicholas Castellanos will cost. If you could use that contract to pry a couple of young prospects from San Diego it might be a good move.
Boston is also trying to reduce payroll and is looking to move David Price. Perhaps 3 team trade. Bauer to SD. Myers and a top 10 prospect to Cincinnati, a low level flyer prospect to Boston. Boston sends Price to Cincy along with 12M a year for 3 years.
SD gets a high end starting pitcher coming off a down year and they save 5M.
Boston saves enough money to get below the cap this season and gets a flyer prospect.
Cincinnati gets a OF bat controlled thru his prime years for 3 more seasons with a 4 year team option. They also replace Bauer with a controlled pitcher for 3 more seasons. They also receive a high end prospect to debut in conjunction with Greene and Stephenson. The Reds payroll would see a net increase of ~24M.
Suarez, Votto, Myers, Price, Castillo, Gray, Senzel, Winker/Ervin would all be controlled for at least 3 more seasons. The Reds would have enough payflex left to sign either Gregorious or Grandall and still get a reliever or two.
Monclova Steve
Well-known member
Pretty gutsy pick, voice.
I'm not so brave. I usually wait to see who is on the team's roster is before I predict how they're W/L record.
I know.....what a wimp, right?
With the roster as it currently stands, 74 wins might be high.Pretty gutsy pick, voice.
I'm not so brave. I usually wait to see who is on the team's roster is before I predict how they're W/L record.
I know.....what a wimp, right?
Red14
Well-known member
Depends on cost and ability....
eastside_purple
Well-known member
Everything depends on cost and ability, but you declared the Reds catching situation as fine (and it isn’t fine at all).
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
Myers was not good in 2019 as you say, but also not good and not healthy in 2018. If we could get Wil Myers from 2016 and 2017, that price is fair, he was almost a 30/30 guy if memory serves, no easy feat in SD. Not sure I'd want the Reds paying out all that money to a guy who used to be young and full of promise, and now looks closer to being on the downside.
Or with a really good prospect.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
Yeah, I just deleted my post as I was thinking along those lines.
Myers will be 29 next season and his contract goes thru age 31 with option for age 32 season. Definitely his prime years are now.
His numbers have been good but not great. His OPS+ the last 5 seasons have been 95-112. So above league average but definitely not worth $67.5M guaranteed over the next 3 years. That production is worth maybe 1/3 that money.
He is definitely over priced but still in his prime. If you could use him the get a top prospect pitcher like Patino or even Weathers to be able to pair up with Greene as he comes thru the system it might be worth the risk and extra money. I wouldn't include Bauer in a two team trade but would consider it in the scenario I presented as a 3 team deal getting Price back. Price is a better pitcher than Bauer and is controlled longer. Even in his worst year (2019) he is better than Bauer has been almost every year. One of the quirks of the luxury cap Average Annual Value computations is that only salaries of players on your roster (and deferred payments) are figured in. That means Boston can trade Price to remove his salary from the roster. It also means Boston can pay a big chunk of it to another team each year and that payment does not count against the Luxury Tax.
Essentially Boston can reset it's tax penalty rate by paying Price to play for someone else.
Of course this trade scenario is a long shot (all trade scenarios are) but if the Reds could fill an outfield need, upgrade pitching and add at least one top level prospect to help extend their window beyond 2020 all for $20-$24M in payroll and still have enough money to sign another big bat and bullpen help it is the type of deal they should be getting creative with doing.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
Bring back all the cast off reds
You don't think Gregorious would be an upgrade?
eastside_purple
Well-known member
I do. I don’t think I said he wouldn’t. Just made a joke that many of the candidates the reds are looking are former reds.
Got it.
Gregorius and Grandall are definitely the top FA's available at their positions IMO.
The most encouraging thing this offseason is that you don't hear about the Reds "looking" at the bargain barrel players like in years past.
I think the Reds may have to trade a couple of big league players to help clear payroll a d roster space if they start signing free agents. I'm good with that.
I think the Reds may have to trade a couple of big league players to help clear payroll a d roster space if they start signing free agents. I'm good with that.
Red14
Well-known member
Has Will Myers had a good year? I've never been impressed with him. I'd be shocked the Reds move Bauer.
I don't expect the Reds to move Bauer either.
I think the Reds are making a huge mistake going for it this year. They simply have to many holes to fill and not enough money to fill them with the kind of talent to be a championship. The Reds have ~$40M in payflex and glaring needs in at least 4 positions plus pitching needs. You can't get enough championship level talent for that many positions with $40M.
A trade like the one I proposed is a model for the type of trades they should be looking for. It would bring in an elite pitcher in David Price off a down year that was still better than Bauer has been historically. It would also bring an outfielder who is above league average. Keep in mind Myers plays in a massive park at home and the NL West away parks are not hitter friendly either. BaseballRefernce.com has a cool app that adjust players numbers based on their home park. As a Red he projects to be a .273/.352/.474 with 26 HR and 93 RBI.
I'd take that kind of production out of a corner outfield spot.
However, he doesn't play in Cincinnati. He plays 100+ games every year in "pitchers" parks and his numbers are suppressed a bit. His salary is way over his worth at this point. Combine that with the Padres GM being in the hot seat (his boss has publicly said win or your fired) and the Padres are at the height of their payroll abilities already. They need to move payroll in order to add payroll. They also need pitching badly. The Reds should use that to their advantage by taking a "bad" contract in Myers for some of their elite prospects. That kind of move helps them win now and for the next 3-6 years. Signing a FA doesn't help beyond 2020.
But to answer your question, yes Myers has been good. He has been roughly 10% above league average the last 5 seasons in a pitchers park. He isn't elite but he is good.
I don't expect this trade to happen. Guessing all the moving pieces and teams in a 3 team trade would be like picking the winning Powerball numbers. Rather this is more of how I think the Reds should approach their roster construction for 2020 and beyond.
Red14
Well-known member
Indiandad, always respect your posts, they are well thought out and make sense. I'm not of the mindset that the Reds need to go for broke this year either. I'd rather build a team that's good for a decade than to push all the chips in for one possible great season. And there's no guarantees those work anyway. I'd rather the Reds get one or two FA's if they are willing to spend, and not give up any prospects. I envision Greene and Lodolo being in the rotation in 2021 and 2022.
Critical year for Bauer. WE've got the new analytics guy here, so if somehow they hit it off and we can get Bauer straightened out, I think he could be a Red long term, solidifying our rotation for years.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
You've never been impressed with Wil Myers? Then you were not paying attention in 2016 and 2017. 30 HR in San Diego is no small task, plus 28 SB in 2016 and 20 SB in 2017. He was an up and coming superstar. That is why he got the big contract. Why he has tailed off the last 2 years, I don;t know, but I sure was impressed with him when he was younger.
Heck! They've all been in the playoffs since they left the Reds!
Sig Hansen
Well-known member
Grandal to the Chi-Sox on a 4 year $73M deal. At that price range I'm pretty happy the Reds didn't sign him. Good hitter but below average defensively, and no will he be worth $18M per year at age 34-35.
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The price per year sounds about right. My guess is the Reds baulked at the 4th year. Stephenson was just added to the 40 man roster and looks like he'll be ready by the time Barnhart is done with his contract.
Hopefully the Reds will address middle infield with either Moustakas or Gregorious.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
As a fan who wants to see them actually re-build something sustainable, I agree. I guess this means the Reds aren’t necessarily “going for it” next year, which isn’t the worst thing. It’s even more critical that they add offense now, if they are going to roll with the catchers on this roster as they are giving up a ton of ground to the rest of the league.