Correct. The Reds would be foolish to make such a deal.
The Official 2019 Cincinnati Reds Thread
- Thread starter Sig Hansen
- Start date
What does it mean that Boston is asking a stupid high price for one season of Betts at $28M?
To me it means they aren't serious about trading him but they would listen to offers of overpay. It also means they are more likely to move JD Martinez.
He should be a legitimate target of the Reds.
Lindor would be serious upgrade at SS but not likely to happen. Didi Gregorius could be a realistic target however.
Red14
Well-known member
Your last sentence would be incredible, but I'd give the Reds about 2% chance of doing that. I really don't think Lindor is coming here, he's going to the east or west coast, possibly Chicago, he's going to break the bank. The Reds can't have break the bank players.
Red14
Well-known member
Based on the real world, here's the way I see it...
1 - FA CF
2 - Votto 1B
3 - Suarez - 3B
4 - Aquino -RF
5 - Senzel - 2B
6 - FA LF
7 - Galvis - SS
8 - Barnhart- C
9 - Castillo, Gray, Bauer, Disco and pick #5, Lorenzen will begin as the closer in 2020.
Based on health and good bench / bullpen, this team could win 90 games.
Thavoice
Well-known member
....yeah, 90 wins.
Check back to me in a year, but I presume the answer will be that health and good bench didn't materialize and that is why the team had another sub 80 win season.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
What are the Red Sox asking for Martinez? Doesn’t he have an opt-out option?
Red14
Well-known member
That's the spirit!! Good thing the Twins/ Rays/ Cardinals/ A's don't think like this!
Thavoice
Well-known member
All teams who have had more success in recenty memory.
Plus, wtf does it matter what fans think?
It doesn't.
He does... two in fact. It's not likely he'll opt out though. The last I saw (a couple of weeks ago) the asking price if he doesn't opt out, is a MLB bullpen arm. Which is why I said Iglesias makes sense as a piece of the trade. Boston will likely ask for a minor leaguer as well. IMO the quality of that prospect should depend on how much of JDM's contract they are willing to pay.
The Betts article made an important point that applies to JDM as well. There aren't many teams who are in a position to contend, need an OF bat and have the ability to take on the salary and I would add have the right pieces to fit in a trade.
The Reds do.
It would be a difficult trade to negotiate because of the multiple opt out clauses but not impossible.
I don't expect Lindor to be in Cincy next season either. My point was I could see the Reds trading for him as he fills a need, is available (likely) and isn't a long term contract. His contract would allow flexibility in 2021 and beyond.
I would assume the Indians will ask for a similar package that Boston is asking for Betts.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
Just having a little fun with your imaginary lineup.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
Your milk is 2%. The chances of the Reds acquiring Lindor, Martinez, Bumgardner and Chapman is less than skim (0%).
Red14
Well-known member
But they've not always had success. You have to start somewhere. Remember how bad the Astros were about 6-7 years ago?
And you are right, doesn't matter what fans think, but isn't it good to have hope?
eastside_purple
Well-known member
Sounds great. I’ll be disappointed now if it doesn’t happen.
Red14
Well-known member
So let's take the 2019 team, group by group and give it a grade for the season. Not the end game, but from where the expectations were at the start of the season to the finish. We'll start with a softball today...the catchers.
Start of 2019 season: Tucker Barnhart, Curt Casali, Kyle Farmer.
Picked up during the season: Kyle Lavarnway, Juan Graterol
Ended season: Tucker Barnhart, Curt Casali, Kyle Farmer
The Reds were in the JT Realmuto sweepstakes briefly during the off season, we never really know how much, but it was at least talked about and Tucker was mentioned in trades with the Marlins. So coming off of that, it would had been nice for Tucker to have a break out season and he did anything but. Now the Reds don't have a great advantage in the catcher postion, but it's not a glaring weakness either. Barnhart / Casali share the catching job and do a decent job for the Reds. The lack of a running game in baseball overall neutralizes one of Tucker's strengths, that's throwing runners out. Tucker is what we know he is. An above average defensive catcher and a below average offensive catcher with little pop in his bat, although he did hit a career high 11 home runs this season. The Reds picked up Casali last season for next to nothing and he's done a nice job. I don't think either could be a full time starter, but in tandem they fill the bill for the Reds. Due to injuries mid season, Lavarnway and Graterol were picked up and played in a few games. Lavarnway may have had one of the more memorable first games with the Reds in club history. Just picked up, he went 3-5 with two homers and 6 RBI in that crazy 12-11 loss to the Cardinals. Kyle Farmer may be one of the most valuable Reds players in terms of flexibility that we can ever remember. His ability to play the catcher position at a major league level allows David Bell to pinch hit, or switch out a catcher early in a game when generally you have to sit on a catcher until you absolutely have to pull them. Farmer's ability to play about any infield position also allows for easy double switches as games go on.
Future? Tucker is signed through the 2022 season, Casali is arbitration eligible. Barring a major trade, I see both coming back for 2020. Obviously Tucker will unless he's part of a trade. Yasmani Grandal has circulated in the Reds rumor mill, but you wonder how much it would take to sign him. I'm reluctant to sign a catcher to a long term, expensive contract as we just got by the Devin Mesoraco deal last year. Our catchers are major league level catchers, and they are pretty cheap as well. I'm not overly concerned that we MUST upgrade here. We can if it works out, but I'm ok with Tucker and Curt coming back for 2020.
Start of 2019 season: Tucker Barnhart, Curt Casali, Kyle Farmer.
Picked up during the season: Kyle Lavarnway, Juan Graterol
Ended season: Tucker Barnhart, Curt Casali, Kyle Farmer
The Reds were in the JT Realmuto sweepstakes briefly during the off season, we never really know how much, but it was at least talked about and Tucker was mentioned in trades with the Marlins. So coming off of that, it would had been nice for Tucker to have a break out season and he did anything but. Now the Reds don't have a great advantage in the catcher postion, but it's not a glaring weakness either. Barnhart / Casali share the catching job and do a decent job for the Reds. The lack of a running game in baseball overall neutralizes one of Tucker's strengths, that's throwing runners out. Tucker is what we know he is. An above average defensive catcher and a below average offensive catcher with little pop in his bat, although he did hit a career high 11 home runs this season. The Reds picked up Casali last season for next to nothing and he's done a nice job. I don't think either could be a full time starter, but in tandem they fill the bill for the Reds. Due to injuries mid season, Lavarnway and Graterol were picked up and played in a few games. Lavarnway may have had one of the more memorable first games with the Reds in club history. Just picked up, he went 3-5 with two homers and 6 RBI in that crazy 12-11 loss to the Cardinals. Kyle Farmer may be one of the most valuable Reds players in terms of flexibility that we can ever remember. His ability to play the catcher position at a major league level allows David Bell to pinch hit, or switch out a catcher early in a game when generally you have to sit on a catcher until you absolutely have to pull them. Farmer's ability to play about any infield position also allows for easy double switches as games go on.
Future? Tucker is signed through the 2022 season, Casali is arbitration eligible. Barring a major trade, I see both coming back for 2020. Obviously Tucker will unless he's part of a trade. Yasmani Grandal has circulated in the Reds rumor mill, but you wonder how much it would take to sign him. I'm reluctant to sign a catcher to a long term, expensive contract as we just got by the Devin Mesoraco deal last year. Our catchers are major league level catchers, and they are pretty cheap as well. I'm not overly concerned that we MUST upgrade here. We can if it works out, but I'm ok with Tucker and Curt coming back for 2020.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
Lol
Red14
Well-known member
oh sorry, thought this was a thread about Reds baseball...oh I guess it is??
Because expectations are low that makes Barnhart and Casali decent "for the Reds"?
Grandal will likely get 3/$60M.
Trade Tucker if you can but otherwise he can back up Grandal and catch when Grandal plays 1B.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
oh sorry, thought this was a thread about Reds baseball...oh I guess it is??
LOL. It is a Reds thread, and if you want to live out your sportswriter fantasy here and write about Graterol and Lavarnway, you should feel free. We will feel free to tease you.
As for your opinion that the Reds catching is "not a glaring weakness", I heartily disagree. Offensive production was anemic, abd it needs to be upgraded (along with LF and 2B) if you hope to be competitive.
Red14
Well-known member
Catchers I've seen on playoff teams the last week... Brian McCann, Kurt Suzuki, Travis D'Arnold, Robinson Chirnos, Mitch Garver...yes, Barnhart and Casali are just fine.
I can only guess you think players are paid with Monopoly money. The Reds are not the Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox or Angles. They can't overpay players.
Now with that said, I'd be happy if the Reds could land Grandal, but my guess is he'll get a better offer from someone else. The Reds can use that money in other places. $20 probably buys you half of a really good bullpen.
Red14
Well-known member
Lavarnway and Graterol did catch for the Reds in 2018, so they are included. It was brief, but they did play. Please read my last post to Indiandad about who's catching on playoff teams. I think upgrading Left and 2B comes before catcher.
What FA bat would you prefer over Grandal at any position?
The point being that it doesn't matter how much you spend on catcher. It matters only how much you spend in total.
If you can find a better bat at another position that upgrades the lineup for less money then sign him. But to simply say Casali and Barnhart are good enough is to say we're happy with losing seasons.
As for the money, Reds ownership gives the ok to spend a certain amount of money. DW says it will be more than last year so we should expect a payroll of 130M+. The Reds have money to spend. Who they spend it on is yet to be determined.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
Grendel brings a decent power bat and the opportunity to upgrade the catcher position....in addition to being able to play at least first base as well.
The idea is to enhance the offensive performance of this team. That could come from a number of positions on this team.
The idea is to enhance the offensive performance of this team. That could come from a number of positions on this team.
There aren't many FA who are upgrades at the positions the Reds need though. Grandal definitely stands out.
The exceptions being some players over 35. I don't imagine the Reds will be signing any of them.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
I agree that Grandal would be key; an upgrade at C is top prioirty IMO. 523 ABs from Barny and Casali yielded OBP .310 and 19 HR. Grandal had 513 ABs with .380 OBP (!) and 28 HR. Huge upgrade. With that OBP, you can see why the Brewers had him lead-off some of the time.
I honestly believe that the Winker/Ervin platoon in LF could be good enough for .350 OBP and 32 HR next year. That would be good (not great) LF production. In 2019 that duo had OBP .345 and 23 HR, despite Winker's injury and Ervin's late call up. Spending on JD Martinez or another LF would be a small upgrade over the platoon.
Hard to compare what a 2B upgrade might bring. Dietrich had 19 HR, all but 2 of them in May, which skews the stats for 2B. But we know we need an upgrade there.
I honestly believe that the Winker/Ervin platoon in LF could be good enough for .350 OBP and 32 HR next year. That would be good (not great) LF production. In 2019 that duo had OBP .345 and 23 HR, despite Winker's injury and Ervin's late call up. Spending on JD Martinez or another LF would be a small upgrade over the platoon.
Hard to compare what a 2B upgrade might bring. Dietrich had 19 HR, all but 2 of them in May, which skews the stats for 2B. But we know we need an upgrade there.
Arbitration guys and their expected salaries:
Bauer $18.6M Tender
Gausman $10.6M non tender
Dietrich $3.1M Non tender
Peraza $3.6M Non tender
Curt Casali $1.7M Tender
Lorenzen $4.2M Tender
Disco $5.2M Tender
Bowman $900K Tender
If they Tender/non tender the above that makes an arbitration commitment of $30.6M.
Guaranteed contracts total $58.6M add in another $9M for pre arbitration contracts and the Reds are at $98.2M
Assuming DW was being truthful when he said payroll would be raised significantly again (let's assume a ceiling of $140M) that leaves $42M for upgrades.
Galvis was brought on to essentially set the ceiling for SS or 2B at $5.5M. Whether it is him, Iglesias, Gregorious or someone else they likely aren't exceeding that mark. There really isn't any FA at either position that screams "sign me, I'm a big upgrade"! I would expect either a value signing like Dietrich or a Kipnis on a small contract for 2B or they'll make a trade for a big upgrade.
I would think that settling these 2 positions first should be the number 1 priority as they will need to make a decision pretty quick on Galvis.
Next should be upgrading the outfield. Again, not a lot out there to get excited about. The trade route makes more sense here unless you over pay for Ozuna.
Third should be Grandal. He'll likely want 3/$60. I'd offer 4/$60. It'll fall somewhere in between there.
Whatever is left rounds out the pen.
The wildcard becomes the arbitration class of 2021. 16 guys are Arb1 eligible next offseason. The Reds have an expected arbitration commitment of $106M. Some of those players will be non tendered, some cut. More importantly, which ones will they look to trade. I think this becomes the key to this offseason.
Can the Reds turn some of these guys into proven, controllable big league talent?
Red14
Well-known member
Ok, I'd say if you had a choice between Mookie Betts for left field, and Grandal to catch, I'd take Betts about 9 times out of 10. We haven't had a left fielder since George Foster. We can win with Barnhart/ Casali. They are good enough as a catching tandem.
Mookie Betts will cost you at least 2 big leaguers and 2 prospects as well as $28M for one year.
Grandal will only cost money... likely $15-$20M per year.