State Meet thoughts/predictions

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buckeyedr

New member
What is everyone thinking about the state meet. The regular season is winding down, and before you know it the lines will be forming in Canton. I just hope winter lightens up a lot, but not gonna hold my breath on that happening.

The 4 districts look to be more competitive than ever this year. As far as the team scores are concerned, can some of the other schools in the SW district take some state spots from St. X this year? Can anyone besides St. X bring more than 8 swimmers to Canton?

How about the relays? How about individual performances that might surprise or be close to any records?
 
 
I think Moeller can bring more than 8. Peloquin, Braun, George, Nymberg, Hodge, Josephson, Worobetz, Worobetz, Asgian. I believe the relays at the 200 distance are in jeopardy of being broken by st. Francis. I think we could see two state records broken from palazzo if he choses to swim the 100BR and 200IM. I think Moeller has a chance at winning the 200 Medley Relay as they were 1:35 mid at the SW district classic. That should be a good race and I think the race between St.x and St. francis in the 200 Free Relay will also be a good one to watch.
 
What are the chances of Moeller winning the SW district? If they can bring that many to Canton, does this mean that St. X is in jeopardy?

The 200 free record should have been broken last year, so again it is the one record that looks to be broken. St. Francis has 3 of the 4 swimmers back this year. Their slowest split will be very close to 21 flat and the fastest split could be 19 point.

The medley looks to be coming down to a few teams. The record could be in trouble, but it is probably safe.

The 400 looks to be the relay that will be the most competitive.

What events will House swim? Can anyone catch Palazzo in the IM?
 
I don't think anyone will catch Palazzo in the IM, but I think Hodge will be close. I predict we see a 1:47 mid from Palazzo (new meet record) based on what he went at juniors and maybe a 48 low from hodge based on what he went at the classic, expect to see Pohlman in that group as well. I'd assume House would swim the classic 100/200 combo but he is very versitle and we could see him swim the 50 or the 500 or even the 100 fly. I don't think X is in jeaprody at the district level because they will still have a lot more kids scoring than Moeller will, but at the state level those numbers become more even. I think Moeller has a more talented group while X has a much larger group of scorers so I think we can expect a good meet.
 
X is in no jeopardy at the district level. At the state level expect a battle for second between Moeller and St.F. Would be shocking if either can seriously challenge X. Neither will have enough scoring opportunities. More interesting question is who will round out the top 5.
 
aquacard said:
For those thinking that X may have difficulties winning their district and the state meet, take a look at the results from the GCL Championships posted on swimmeet.com: http://www.swimmeet.com/meets/gcl114/

No one will top X this year.
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No question it will be tough but it is possible. The Moe kids swam in their off events last night and a lot of the X kids were tapered because they didn't make X's sectionals lineup. Also, it is clear X can beat any team in a dual, conference or district meet because of their enormous depth; however, when it comes to scoring at the state meet a lot of X's depth will thin out. To say Moe or Francis doesn't have a chance to win yet is premature.
 
ThatOneGuy10 said:
No question it will be tough but it is possible. The Moe kids swam in their off events last night and a lot of the X kids were tapered because they didn't make X's sectionals lineup. Also, it is clear X can beat any team in a dual, conference or district meet because of their enormous depth; however, when it comes to scoring at the state meet a lot of X's depth will thin out. To say Moe or Francis doesn't have a chance to win yet is premature.
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Makes sense TOG but it is a VERY nice problem to have if you've got 2 kids going 4:39 in the 500 free that aren't going to be on the sectional lineup!
 
Got to move this meet out of Canton. The pool stinks, the locals gouge the families on rooms, and the seating is horrible.

A couple swimmers I spoke to said if you want fast times Cleveland State is the place to be but that will never happen as Canton has the political thing down. Also hearing OSU wants no part of this meet.
 
Auggie said:
Got to move this meet out of Canton. The pool stinks, the locals gouge the families on rooms, and the seating is horrible.

A couple swimmers I spoke to said if you want fast times Cleveland State is the place to be but that will never happen as Canton has the political thing down. Also hearing OSU wants no part of this meet.
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I think that there is 7 or 8 years left in the OHSAA contract to keep there. I'm not sure that Ohio State has ever publicly said they don't want it. Their own meet schedule with Big Tens and NCAAs in the next few years, would conflict. The argument always comes back to seating capacity. I always wanted to suggest putting it in a temporary pool at the Schott and seat 10,000. But, not until the contract is up :(
 
Wow, a temporary pool would solve the seating problem but is it financially feasible? If it is then they could place the meet in any arena around the state.
 
A temporary pool would be nice, but I think the reason that nobody is in a huge hurry to get the meet out of Canton is because from a swimmers perspective, the seating can make a huge difference because it's like a stadium and it's loud and exciting. I don't think the state meet would slow down if it was held elsewhere but I do not think Canton is a poor place to hold this meet.
 
thedutchman said:
Wow, a temporary pool would solve the seating problem but is it financially feasible? If it is then they could place the meet in any arena around the state.
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Last hijacking message of the thread. Do the numbers. Canton 2200 seats, 4 sessions, $8 per session is gross revenue of $70,400. Pool rental is about $5000. $65,000 net . Schott at 60% capacity brings $200k. rental for 2 days, maybe $50k. Pool construction and rental for $75k. Gross revenue of $75k with assigned seats, plenty of parking and 3 times the crowd. Everybody wins.
 
preeder61 said:
Last hijacking message of the thread. Do the numbers. Canton 2200 seats, 4 sessions, $8 per session is gross revenue of $70,400. Pool rental is about $5000. $65,000 net . Schott at 60% capacity brings $200k. rental for 2 days, maybe $50k. Pool construction and rental for $75k. Gross revenue of $75k with assigned seats, plenty of parking and 3 times the crowd. Everybody wins.
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You're right preeder!
 
The Schott sells out (including the suites) for the state wrestling tournament. So, someone please tell me why the swimming championships would not sell out. Too many people in charge that have always done it the way they did back in the 70's. Something/one has to change.
 
buckeyedr said:
The Schott sells out (including the suites) for the state wrestling tournament. So, someone please tell me why the swimming championships would not sell out. Too many people in charge that have always done it the way they did back in the 70's. Something/one has to change.
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Never been to the state wrestling tournament - really surprising to me that the Schott sells out. Does basketball even sell out there?

While I dislike the drive to Canton (from SW Ohio), I do love the atmosphere there - with seating on three sides. And I haven't heard any of the top swimmers complain about it. You just don't hear that level of noise or energy at most swim meets. I do realize that the pool is like swimming in a Wave pool at an amusement park.
 
Can we go back to one division? There would be 7 guys in the breaststroke with 56 or faster- that would be cool to watch.
 
boys D1 St X
boys D2 Oakwood maybe
Girls D1 Cinn Ursula over Mason
Girls D2 Hawken it will be close over Columbus School for Girls
 
Here's how the meet scores of the qualifying times:

StX 229
StF 219
Moeller 184
Solon 155
Hudson 101
St Charles 99
St. Ignatius 91
Upper Arlington 90
Dublin Coffman 67
North Canton Hoover 61
Strongsville 59
Wooster 55
Jerome 55
Centerville 51
Brecksville 43
Darby 37
Westerville North 37
Beavercreek 37
Vandalia Butler 33
Cincinnati Turpin 32
Pick North 32
Findlay 31
Mansfield 30
Mayfield 28
Middletown 28
Mason 27
Powell Olentangy Liberty 27
Cincinnati Anderson 26
Cincinnati Sycamore 26
Fairfield 20
Eastlake North 20
Lakota East 19
Macedonia Nordonia 17
New Albany 16
Xenia 15
Warren G. Harding 15
Walsh Jesuit 15
Vandalia Butler 14
St. Edward 14
Berea Midpark 14
Lewis Center Olentangy 14
Kettering Fairmont 13
Toledo St. John's Jesuit 13
Westerville South 13
Grove City 12
Springfield 11
Avon Lake 11
Westerville Central 10
Dublin Scioto 9
Lancaster 9
Trenton Edgewood 9
Cincinnati Elder 9
Hilliard Bradley 6
Piqua 6
Cincinnati Walnut Hills 6
North Olmsted 4
Ashland 3
Morrow Little Miami 3
Lakewood 3
Kings Mills Kings 1
 
Moe definitely has a shot, not a favorable one but still a shot. Keep in mind Kevin George will move up at least 30 pts from where he is seeded!
 
This years meet should be one of the most competitive in years. Just about every race is going to be exciting. I'm really looking forward to the IM which shapes up to be a battle between Palazzo and Hodge with the winner most likely breaking the state record. The most competitive race of the night will be the Fly. It's going to be a battle between Miller, Pohlmann, Nymberg and Simcox. The best race for 2nd will be the 100 Free between Miller and Cope. House will run away with it for the win and my guess is he goes sub 44.5. Here's my top 3 order of finish on the races:

50 - Trace Christian and Brodie
100 - House Miller Cope
200 - House Cope George
500 - George Carroll Slabe
Back - Pohlmann Trace Reilman
Breast - Palazzo Hodge Barone
Fly - Miller Pohlmann Nymberg
IM - Palazzo Hodge Frey
200FR - STX STF STI
400Fr - STX Moe STF
200MR - STF Moe STX

The relays are going to be exciting to watch. Depending on where the studs for each of the top 5/6 teams swim could have big impacts on the results. Hudson or Solon could easily move up in the medley depending on where they stack there top swimmers.
 
aquacard said:
Here's how the meet scores of the qualifying times:

StX 229
StF 219
Moeller 184
Solon 155
Hudson 101
St Charles 99
St. Ignatius 91
Upper Arlington 90
Dublin Coffman 67
North Canton Hoover 61
Strongsville 59
Wooster 55
Jerome 55
Centerville 51
Brecksville 43
Darby 37
Westerville North 37
Beavercreek 37
Vandalia Butler 33
Cincinnati Turpin 32
Pick North 32
Findlay 31
Mansfield 30
Mayfield 28
Middletown 28
Mason 27
Powell Olentangy Liberty 27
Cincinnati Anderson 26
Cincinnati Sycamore 26
Fairfield 20
Eastlake North 20
Lakota East 19
Macedonia Nordonia 17
New Albany 16
Xenia 15
Warren G. Harding 15
Walsh Jesuit 15
Vandalia Butler 14
St. Edward 14
Berea Midpark 14
Lewis Center Olentangy 14
Kettering Fairmont 13
Toledo St. John's Jesuit 13
Westerville South 13
Grove City 12
Springfield 11
Avon Lake 11
Westerville Central 10
Dublin Scioto 9
Lancaster 9
Trenton Edgewood 9
Cincinnati Elder 9
Hilliard Bradley 6
Piqua 6
Cincinnati Walnut Hills 6
North Olmsted 4
Ashland 3
Morrow Little Miami 3
Lakewood 3
Kings Mills Kings 1
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10 points huh???!!! It will get very interesting this weekend!!!
 
UAswimfan said:
This years meet should be one of the most competitive in years. Just about every race is going to be exciting. I'm really looking forward to the IM which shapes up to be a battle between Palazzo and Hodge with the winner most likely breaking the state record. The most competitive race of the night will be the Fly. It's going to be a battle between Miller, Pohlmann, Nymberg and Simcox. The best race for 2nd will be the 100 Free between Miller and Cope. House will run away with it for the win and my guess is he goes sub 44.5. Here's my top 3 order of finish on the races:

50 - Trace Christian and Brodie
100 - House Miller Cope
200 - House Cope George
500 - George Carroll Slabe
Back - Pohlmann Trace Reilman
Breast - Palazzo Hodge Barone
Fly - Miller Pohlmann Nymberg
IM - Palazzo Hodge Frey
200FR - STX STF STI
400Fr - STX Moe STF
200MR - STF Moe STX

The relays are going to be exciting to watch. Depending on where the studs for each of the top 5/6 teams swim could have big impacts on the results. Hudson or Solon could easily move up in the medley depending on where they stack there top swimmers.
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I think the 2 free relay is won by the Knights in a state record time.
 
That was one that I was torn between. I assumed that both teams had 2 that were tapering for districts and 2 that were tapering for state. I expected that the winner would break the record. It may very well come down to how well swimmers 3/4 hold their tapers as the top 2 will probably wash each other out. Hopefully the STF guys don't want it so bad that one of them leaves early.
 
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