Sports Betting

So basically, Alabama's announced SP (staff ace) was replaced without anyone really knowing until gametime. The theory would be that someone had that information and used it as inside information to bet the game. I'm not really sure how that information would benefit being that LSU was the heavy favorite anyways. Sounds like they have no evidence but an automatic audit was triggered. Looking at one parlay placed at GABP
 
So basically, Alabama's announced SP (staff ace) was replaced without anyone really knowing until gametime. The theory would be that someone had that information and used it as inside information to bet the game. I'm not really sure how that information would benefit being that LSU was the heavy favorite anyways. Sounds like they have no evidence but an automatic audit was triggered. Looking at one parlay placed at GABP


and now Alabama has fired their baseball coach.
 
and now Alabama has fired their baseball coach.
Saw that. Incredibly dumb on those involved but I'm interested in what the bets were and the payout. College Baseball gets very little action even during the College World Series. An odd bet would stick out much more than in other sports. But that also may be why this has somewhat been solved rather quickly. I'm guessing the payout wouldn't have been more than a single check he was receiving as coach. Hope it was worth it.
 
What idiot came up with the idea of betting on the Special Olympics?
Did the Special Olympic Committee approve? Or do they have to? I’m not a gambler. Definitely seems wrong, but I’m not sure of the details. Read an article, but it did not mention any comments from the Special Olympics.
 
Did the Special Olympic Committee approve? Or do they have to? I’m not a gambler. Definitely seems wrong, but I’m not sure of the details. Read an article, but it did not mention any comments from the Special Olympics.

I can’t find the original article I saw but just saw this. No quotes from Special Olympics though

 
You can bet on anything.

A bunch of people who have never been exposed to gambling are now being taken advantage of. Five to ten years from now we will be talking about the addiction and loss in almost the same terms as the opioid crisis. I grew up around gambling and bookies and can tell you I have NEVER known a successful gambler. Pre legalization I knew people that lost everything, mortgaged their houses multiple times, and had to leave town. And they still could not stop.

The house always wins in the end.
 
You can't legally bet on the Special Olympics anywhere in the United States. You can on sites that are offshore casinos. They have no regulations and truly do allow you to bet on anything. Those sites are simply money pits that make it impossible to actually get any of their winnings back. You want your winnings in Bitcoin?

I know people who've lost everything due to all sorts of problems including gambling. Undoubtedly, there will be some that face those issues from betting on sports. But I'm not sure we'll see a huge uptick. You can be unresponsible with anything and in doing so, cause a lot of harm.
 
You can't legally bet on the Special Olympics anywhere in the United States. You can on sites that are offshore casinos. They have no regulations and truly do allow you to bet on anything. Those sites are simply money pits that make it impossible to actually get any of their winnings back. You want your winnings in Bitcoin?

I know people who've lost everything due to all sorts of problems including gambling. Undoubtedly, there will be some that face those issues from betting on sports. But I'm not sure we'll see a huge uptick. You can be unresponsible with anything and in doing so, cause a lot of harm.
We just opened gambling, which is addictive, to a bunch of unsuspecting people. There will be an uptick.
 
You can bet on anything.

A bunch of people who have never been exposed to gambling are now being taken advantage of. Five to ten years from now we will be talking about the addiction and loss in almost the same terms as the opioid crisis. I grew up around gambling and bookies and can tell you I have NEVER known a successful gambler. Pre legalization I knew people that lost everything, mortgaged their houses multiple times, and had to leave town. And they still could not stop.

The house always wins in the end.
Great post. Like any other thing in life - gambling should be treated as a hobby, a likely expensive one. It’s not something you should be doing in hopes of getting rich. When I do gamble, which isn’t often, I view it no different than paying for a movie, video game, ticket to a sporting event. Im paying for entertainment and expect no money back. Anything I do win is just icing on the entertainment cake. Unfortunately most view it as a get rich quick play.
 
Great post. Like any other thing in life - gambling should be treated as a hobby, a likely expensive one. It’s not something you should be doing in hopes of getting rich. When I do gamble, which isn’t often, I view it no different than paying for a movie, video game, ticket to a sporting event. Im paying for entertainment and expect no money back. Anything I do win is just icing on the entertainment cake. Unfortunately most view it as a get rich quick play.
I use your same model when betting. Basically if I'm going to sit down and watch I game that really interests me I'll throw $10-25 down...that's about what I'd spend going out. If I win great. If I lose then I'm not too upset. I don't start chasing money if I lose a couple in a row. This is my hobby

I do throw $10 on each NASCAR race and major golf event. Won a few hundred dollars that way but nothing to write home about.
 
Funny thing about these cases are... if they bet smaller amounts they could've made money and probably never noticed. But $100k on a college BASEBALL game... yeah. That's a gigantic red flag. And then dumb enough to not know the casino cameras could read his phone screen... OR that he actually told the sportsbook employees that he had insider info... so f'n dumb.
 
Funny thing about these cases are... if they bet smaller amounts they could've made money and probably never noticed. But $100k on a college BASEBALL game... yeah. That's a gigantic red flag. And then dumb enough to not know the casino cameras could read his phone screen... OR that he actually told the sportsbook employees that he had insider info... so f'n dumb.
I laughed at this whole article when I read it. I was guessing the guy tried to throw a couple grand down...which would've still raised alarm. $100 grand would've stood out no matter what he was better on. Especially at a small, slightly used, gaming window at GABP. May be the dumbest gambler of all time
 
I prefer the old school way. Pick up my parley sheets in the back ally by the pool hall or on straight up bets just call it in. 😂
 
Haven't bet on anything since shortly after NBA Finals and Stanley Cup ended. MLB is just too much of a crap shoot to put together a parlay to make a decent payout.

But, with football back. Got a freebie bet when I logged into my account from not betting in a while.

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This week, put in a few bigger bets. Saturday, I used another freebie I earned from the last freebie, and was in PA, so couldn't place a hedge. Alabama ruined the Parlay.

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That would've paid out $355.

Early Sunday, Vikings and Seahawks thrwarted my $5 Parlays. Browns paid out a straight-up bet and a first to 20 bet for small amounts. Was also watching the Steelers game, so I put together a Same Game Parlay, and Harris was 9 yards short of a simple payout of $41.25.

Screenshot 2023-09-11 000427.png


But, Cowboys made up for it with the night game.

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The -3.5 wasn't really in doubt after a few minutes into the game. But Pollard didn't get to 70 yards until his last run of the night. A 2 yard run. Don't usually put up a $50 stake on a parlay, but I didn't think Giants were going to do much offensively but wasn't expecting all the defensive plays. Really put the Cowboys in a position to not need a lot of offense.

Up $410 since I started again last Saturday.
 
Years ago, when I went to Vegas for the first time, it struck me that when anyone who wants to give out free drinks,
meals, rooms, etc., that means that the vast majority of people are losing.

No, thanks.
 
A wise gambler gave me two pieces of advice when gambling on sports:

  1. Use a "unit" system when gambling and not $s. Like craps an outcome should assign betting units based on probability of outcome, bet based on confidence of the outcome and not a potentially big payout.
  2. Never bet on an individual sport where the primary participant is smarter than a horse. He especially thinks these prop bets are bad because of the amount of variables involved, HS football 50/50 raffle like odds.
 
Still better than giving your money away. At least some of that money will help people.
Thing is, sportsbooks aren't looking to bet against their customers. They're putting half their customers against the other half and collecting a small fraction.

Bills -3.5 will pay -110 while Jets +3.5 will pay -110.

That small difference from 100 is the amount the sportsbook will collect for running the book. The goal is to have the line evenly to both halves. 50% on the Bills and 50% on the Jets. Money goes too quickly to one side, the line moves.

Books don't even care what the outcome of the game is. They care what people think will happen and put lines to match that expectation. The 'house always wins' when they're not depending on one side or the other win in order for a bigger percentage of bets to lose. That's how sportsbooks stay in business.

When they put Bills -3.5, they don't think the Bills are winning by 3 or 4 points. They think that's the mid-point for the money being bet.

To win, you just have to be better than the average bettor. That's it.
 
Thing is, sportsbooks aren't looking to bet against their customers. They're putting half their customers against the other half and collecting a small fraction.

Bills -3.5 will pay -110 while Jets +3.5 will pay -110.

That small difference from 100 is the amount the sportsbook will collect for running the book. The goal is to have the line evenly to both halves. 50% on the Bills and 50% on the Jets. Money goes too quickly to one side, the line moves.

Books don't even care what the outcome of the game is. They care what people think will happen and put lines to match that expectation. The 'house always wins' when they're not depending on one side or the other win in order for a bigger percentage of bets to lose. That's how sportsbooks stay in business.

When they put Bills -3.5, they don't think the Bills are winning by 3 or 4 points. They think that's the mid-point for the money being bet.

To win, you just have to be better than the average bettor. That's it.
That is correct, a sports book is only worried about splitting the play equally and "irregularities" that can affect the outcome a with big betting swings tied into it ala the 'Bama baseball case. On the other hand the balance of a casino is all about the house edge, you might think that the house advantage at a popular game like blackjack at .28% is not bad but remember that a casino is open 24/7, 365 so over the course off all that play .28% still pays for some bills plus not everyone follows the rules to maximize odds; don't split or double down when advantageous. Craps is a great example to look at too. Pass Line + Odds is basically no house advantage. Yet I rarely see a player at craps only make this play, eventually a unit or two gets thrown to the stickman for those hard ways which have house advantages of 9% for 6/8 and 11% for 4/10. Ouch. If you want to know what is the best games to play in a casino note below link:

 
That is correct, a sports book is only worried about splitting the play equally and "irregularities" that can affect the outcome a with big betting swings tied into it ala the 'Bama baseball case. On the other hand the balance of a casino is all about the house edge, you might think that the house advantage at a popular game like blackjack at .28% is not bad but remember that a casino is open 24/7, 365 so over the course off all that play .28% still pays for some bills plus not everyone follows the rules to maximize odds; don't split or double down when advantageous. Craps is a great example to look at too. Pass Line + Odds is basically no house advantage. Yet I rarely see a player at craps only make this play, eventually a unit or two gets thrown to the stickman for those hard ways which have house advantages of 9% for 6/8 and 11% for 4/10. Ouch. If you want to know what is the best games to play in a casino note below link:

Really, the best odds at a casino are going to be blackjack if you're counting cards (but that's usually easy to spot by the casino and they can 'ask' you not to ever come back. And craps if you're betting on the Don't Pass/Don't Come. Funny, though, that the rest of the table really doesn't like people better against them.

Thing is, the casinos and sportsbooks make the most money from the casual gambler that don't know much what they're doing and just want a few hours of fun. Or just place a single bet on a game or their team, and nothing more. That adds up to a ridiculous amount of money for a casino. Slots, especially. No real effort or thought needed. You're just hoping you're the lucky one as opposed to the many unlucky ones.
 
Really, the best odds at a casino are going to be blackjack if you're counting cards (but that's usually easy to spot by the casino and they can 'ask' you not to ever come back. And craps if you're betting on the Don't Pass/Don't Come. Funny, though, that the rest of the table really doesn't like people better against them.

Thing is, the casinos and sportsbooks make the most money from the casual gambler that don't know much what they're doing and just want a few hours of fun. Or just place a single bet on a game or their team, and nothing more. That adds up to a ridiculous amount of money for a casino. Slots, especially. No real effort or thought needed. You're just hoping you're the lucky one as opposed to the many unlucky ones.
Did you see the link I posted? Casinos have internal formulas on what the actual odds are based off of all the betting errors suckers make when in a casino. Outside of the insurance business casinos are the most stats driven industry out there.
 
Did you see the link I posted? Casinos have internal formulas on what the actual odds are based off of all the betting errors suckers make when in a casino. Outside of the insurance business casinos are the most stats driven industry out there.
Yeah. And casinos don't consider counting cards 'optimal'. They'll kick you out of they suspect it. it's why most non-NV casinos use an 8-deck shoe where the shoe has nearly two full decks after the cut card. Really hard to get an advantage that way. Most NV casinos are two deck, and it's much easier. Even then, they'll still stop after about 1.5 decks. They're not letting the end of the shoe be played.

And as said, to count cards, your bets are going to fluctuate wildly, and the casino is going to pick up on it very fast.
 
1. Don't do it. Value your money more than that. If you don't want it, give it to charity. They'll make better use of it.
1. That's for me to decide (disclaimer: I give far more to charity than my handful of $5 bets, but it's all my money to spend how I see fit).
2. With Ohio being new to the legal online gambling world, in the short-term the odds are actually with the bettor due to all of the incentives offered (i.e. free bets) for going with this app/site versus the competition. After using the free bets, I had enough real money to allow me to cash out my initial stakes plus 50% and leaving enough to play going forward. When I lose the rest of "their" money, I'm quite sure I'll be done with the activity.
 
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