Dublin Coffman 2022

Harrycrane

Well-known member
My sources tell me that the last Notre Dame QB to win an NFL game and a current Carolina Panther who played his first NFL game this past week were two of the primaries. May be one other.
Really quality guys' obviously, and we know who the last guy from ND to win an NFL GAME was [I posted it here lol} and the other one's story is epic.
 
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Harrycrane

Well-known member
Coffman in that period I ran down had six D-1 kids and two 1-AA Kids and a couple more smaller school guys. Not a bad run . Oh and Ernst was a D-1 Baseball player [ Ohio State}
 
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Tiger Alum

Active member
Maryland was a huge winner for us and the guys. [54-10} Hope to stay warm the next few days..
Virginia Tech has been a very good to solid program over the years but I get the feeling they are falling hard based on what I saw this year. They seem like a mess now.
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Virginia Tech has been a very good to solid program over the years but I get the feeling they are falling hard based on what I saw this year. They seem like a mess now.
Definitely down. Been fading for a bit now after Beamer.
 
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Harrycrane

Well-known member
Staying pretty warm with Oklahoma crushing Oregon in a game that was over mid second quarter. Fairly predictable that Oregon was going to be found lacking with their program leadership in flux and the number of players who were going to be missing. Of course, Oklahoma had their HC leave but they are further along in their moving on process. Tennessee laying the FG holds some value [it's now 6 -6.5} and Michigan State is in play at - 1 {now 2.5}, have MSU with the ML parlay with Minnesota still alive as well.

Got UNC at 9.5 to beat South Carolina. We have seen for a while now that the SEC while the best college football conference in the country that produces the most NFL guys overall, it is top heavy. Has been for a while. The middle of the road teams in that conference are not superior to the average teams of a few other conferences. They just aren't at this point. So, Carolina isn't good. They did improve and played to their potential in a few games, but they don't have a viable QB, and UNC does obviously, and have a few other guys out and don'[t has the depth to score many points here even going against a below average defense.

UNC will score near 35 - 38 and that should be enough. Not a strong opinion and play, but Tar Heels have more offense and will only have to be reasonably engaged with an NFL level QB going against a back-up who completed 54 percent of his passes in limited action. South Carolina doesn't have a stout enough defense to compensate.

Early NFL teaser sent in was

NE - 15 [6 Pt. down to under 10} with
LA Chargers - 6.5 over Denver. Both teams need to bounce back pretty big here. Jax averages about 10 points a game against this class of defense, and the Pats pretty much clinch their play-off spot with a win over this mess at home. Denver is pretty much done now. They have a good roster and potential to grow, but it isn't happening this year obviously. They can't score enough in this spot to get a win and with the Chargers teased down to pick, the Chargers are the play with the Patriots.

Getting some thoughts together concerning the death and legacy of John Madden, but a few things kind of stick out when memories and facts start coming back. Those here say 65 and up have more and distinct memories of watching most of Madden's time in the NFL which was really brief actually. 10 Seasons as a HC for the Raiders [69-78}. Those of us in the 55 to early 60's were little kids or teenagers getting acquainted with our first memories of the league or as later teens with a better grasp of it.

His teams always being in the mix obviously [ all winning seasons and 8 play-off appearances} , Curt Gowdy and Al DeRogatis calling the games in that 4 O'clock spot in what seemed to always be sunny Cali weather. The immaculate reception was a very early memory and pictures of Pittsburgh's Art Rooney, the longtime owner having his first success with the team. Franco Harris staying in bounds for once lol tiptoeing down the field after snatching the deflected ball off of the hard carpet .

Older guys might remember the 'Heidi " game where the Raiders - Jets play-off game was pre-empted by the scheduled movie Heidi leaving fans to wonder who might win the game. Be like 60 minutes coming on despite the game going to overtime, only back in the late 60's no real way to find out what was going on unless you were in NY or Oakland and could get the radio feed.

The holy roller " game where TE Dave Casper {Notre Dame} caught a pass on the last play of the game and was being tackled, and if he is brought to the ground with the ball secured to him, they lose. Wel Casper with no rule in place yet {rule was adopted about advancing fumbles as a result of this zany play} basically just shoveled the ball forward kicked it fumbled it around some more and fell on it in the end zone giving the Raiders the win. I didn't see it live but NFL films has it and you can find it including the local play by play where the announcer is giddy and with Madden jumping around on the field, infers that the ref is telling him to get his 'big Butt" off of the field and then says if I recall right '"He does"

The aforementioned great play by play man Gowdy bellowing 'Old man Willie" when Raiders DB Willie Brown clinches the game with a pick six in Madden's one Super Bowl win.

Stick em all over the Raiders uniforms. These are just snapshots in our heads, but I have some thoughts on the man personally [And the men with the big personalities who played for him} . What kind of man he was to people, how smart he was, and of course his broadcasting career and the development and impact of his Madden football video game? And of course, his coaching ability and the Raiders brilliant team building during his tenure.
 
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Harrycrane

Well-known member
What a wild day in the college football in a wild year. SEC is 1-5 so far in the bowl season and the Big-10 is 5-0. there have been more upsets this year involving unranked teams beating ranked teams that we have ever seen. The sport is terribly top heavy with a high percentage of the best players opting for a same handful of programs but after that? Parity reigns lately. UNC lays and an egg and cooled us off a bit with SO. Carolina was incredible in the passing game [Or UNC pathetic in defending against giving up big plays} Only threw 15 times completing 12 for 242 yards? 16 yards an attempt? WTF? Oh also ran for 300 at 6 an attempt. UNC future NFL back-up [Sorry Sam not seeing it right now} Howell was MEH with a capital M and it wasn't all his fault but the stock price on Mr. Howell isn't rising, and it isn't a buy right now. OVERS came back a bit lately in the bowl games and we took the OVER 57 in this one, and just barely got there as UNC lagged behind, the opposite of what we thought in terms of who was getting the points on the board. This line went 13.5 so a lot of other UNC losers , we thought middle but liked the total as the second play in this game a bit better thinking UNC would score near 40 and win by 2 TD's instead of what happened but got the total win [barely}

Another loss followed on a side play as soft Tennessee lost despite putting up over 600 yards vs a depleted Purdue roster, throwing no picks and 5TD passes m 9 yards an attempt but couldn't get key yards on the ground, didn't execute little things and were really soft on defense. Giving up a ridiculous 535 yards through the air, not tackling people most of the day giving up huge plays left and right. the did get jobbed in OT as the kid clearly wasn't down and the whistle hadn't been blown until after he reached the ball over the goal line.

Michigan State had to rally from 21-10 entering the 4th quarter to avoid an embarrassing loss to Pitt who had to go most of the game with QB-3 after QB-2 went out. Tall somewhat Gangly QB-3 competed pretty well actually in a solid if not slightly awkward performance going 14-18 for 150 yards and showed some competitiveness and playmaking ability. MSU couldn't run the rock AT ALL [ 1.5 a rush for a paltry 56 yards} but got a good 4th quarter passing game going finishing with a 29-50 for 355 yards passing line. BIG win for us as we had MSU - 3 [early it went to 7.5} in a teaser with Wisconsin - a TD and on the previous ML parlay with Minnesota. HUGE pick six to seal it and we might have won some of the plays [Or pushed the side} without it, but that singular play was a big one and took some of the sting off of the OT bad call in the UT-Purdue game.

Cincinnati getting the 13.5 is a bit off most guys [wise one's in my orbit} actual season long power ratings take on this game. it's more 9.5 to 10.5 but is inflated here because of the outlier awesome performance vs Georgia and the fact that Bama is here every year, and they are well " The Crimson tide after all. Some who are forecasting a Blowout, are pointing to this performance but probably more heavily towards UC's close calls vs lesser foes. Now of course if Bama comes out and plays to even near the level of what they did vs. UGA, they roll [Did lose their best all-around receiver and a DB} but is this what they are definitively? or are they a mix of what we saw vs Florida, Arkansas, Auburn and A'm ?

People forget that UC actually played right with Georgia last year. Now this is a better Georgia defense a year later, but UC's kids should feel somewhat confident about being on the same plane as a Bama and shouldn't be intimidated. Saban is so good in long lay-off Semi-final game overall in this play-off era, so it's tough to bet against him and the program in these spots and power ratings or not it's still hard to do. 11 of 14 Semi- final games have been decided by 11 points or more which is further evidence of the top-heavy dynamic that exists.


Michigan getting 7.5 suggests that the books may wanted some Wolverine money to roll in a bit. Well, they have received about 65 percent of the action dropping the line to 7 in many places. We got the 7.5 in a game we think will be a classic slugfest. Michigan defense with a younger more progressive DC has really been a harder team to figure out as they liberally mix zone coverage a lot more in spots whereas with DC Brown, they were a cover 0 or 1 team who wasn't matching up with the better offenses they played [OSU and were on 0-11 streak vs higher ranked foes} . They have obviously broken that seal and I think they can hang with Georgia here. They bring pressure unexpectedly; they are harder to figure out and Bennett isn't good under pressure [Most QB's can struggle at times under pressure of course but he may not be good enough to make the plays to get a margin here}. On offense they are a bit more unpredictable mixing in some gadgets and trick plays at opportune moments.

Can't wait to watch the Madden documentary which I am so glad they finished, and he saw it before he passed. The likes and impact he made will never be seen again. Incredible how influential and important he was in the growth of the NFL which is king in this country despite what some say about its issues and their claim that they don't watch much of it now. [Race and or politics factors in of course as the league is now over 70 percent black} Madden and the Raiders along with Gil Brandt and the Cowboys were among the first and most progressive to seriously scout and utilize the smaller all black programs} and he was a guy who really understood different personalities and could bring them together to make them a team. Unique ability to get this different sometimes strong eccentric personality's and get their best efforts.

Madden had a superior intellect but had the gift of connecting with people with a more everyman touch. He suffered fools well and was a genuinely decent human being. He was the first broadcaster to suggest meeting to go over how to make the broadcast better and met with coaches and watched practice. He did this because he thought it part of the job. Most broadcasters didn't think this way at the time. He was instrumental in getting the yellow first down line on TV screens. The list goes on really. The term 'Giant" in any profession or realm shouldn't be overused and it really isn't. Madden was a GIANT, in the business of the NFL and its growth and popularity. An interesting tidbit I heard this week was the younger generations of coaches in the NFL and even college now being better than then older generation of coaches in managing the clock and overall game management as a result of growing up playing Madden for many hours as kids.

Happy New Year's Eve to all. I'll check back in a bit later. Rutgers with a 5-7 record and a late replacement shouldn't be counted as a loss for the Big 10 IMO and I'm sticking to it lol
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Further reasons some like Bama is the fact that they have won the last 5 Semifinal games they have played in by an average of 20 points. UC QB has a propensity to turn it over at times and Bama since 2014 has a plus 58 TO margin? Yikes .
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Bama hit their average of winning the CFP semifinal by 20 points again and the UNDER came in for us easily [57.5} as you knew that Bama was going to run the ball more as Cincy DB's were the strength and Metchie out would hurt a bit. Cinci UNDER 23 points was a very popular prop and also came in. Robinson OVER 85 yards was a great prop selection [4-2 on these for the good guys}. Bama teased with Georgia is a good hedge in terms or us having a nice position on Michigan + 7.5 .

Prop bet that I like quite a bit is Corum OVER 38 yards rushing as i think he breaks one for a good chunk gain at some point gets another 4-5 carries to get us OVER that number.

Total is low at 45- 45.5 and I'm sitting that one out. Hopefully Michigan plays a clean game and this game is better than the first one which was pretty much inevitably going to go in Bama's favor eventually if not for a majority of the game. The Bearcats had several chances for a momentum and a scoreboard swing but just weren't good enough to do it.
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
SEC SEC SEC . And deservedly so. The iron of that league is as sharp as it gets and that was a great Georgia team playing angry after being embarrassed by Alabama and Michigan was just unfortunate to be the team in the way on this night. Bennett wasn't pressured, he was up to the challenge and the Michigan defense wasn't good enough to do much about it. Grabbing the 7.5 seemed like a decent value, but the value was gone about 5-6 minutes in after seeing the physical difference up close. Wanted to see a good game regardless of that and the hedge teaser was well played to negate the loss and we have the two best teams playing each other, but it was so close to a non-Alabama included final four as they escaped a few by the skin of their teeth.

The games were won up front and no one has the type of size [body types as was mentioned on the broadcast} and quickness, strength and just overall nastiness that the top SEC teams have. The South produces and has the most of these physical freaks and the best of the best seem to congregate at Bama, and Georgia at the moment. Other SEC teams have won the whole shebang in this generation, but at the moment? It's these two who are set apart as almost pro teams, with the resources, [Bama operation spares no expense, and the support staff is the best in CFB} that know no bounds. The care more down there about winning in college football AND they have more good players down there. Better demographics, more size and speed and you couple this with being more fanatical?

Of course Clemson has had a few teams that can line up and compete and have won and Ohio State has had a couple clubs that measure up to this absurd standard of modern day CFB where super teams reign. Michigan is a good team. They would look really good playing today against a merely good SEC team like say Ole Miss , and they had a great breakthrough win vs OSU and savored it. I guess what may have been overlooked by some Michigan backers was the mindset may be more ' we did it , we dit it , the rest is just gravy? Whereas UGA was just in foul mood after giving up tons of yards and points and were just going to right that wrong with a vengeance. Game was well over at 20-3 but what really underscored this sad Michigan effort was that last first half dagger where the Wolverine DB was running right with the UGA receiver and just suddenly stopped running for a brief second letting the receiver calmly catch it and run it in. Bizzare play on a very disappointing night of competition. They didn't score on this but insult to bloody injury with the UGA DB grabbing the Michigan receiver like an older brother does to his little brother in the backyard, tossing him slightly out of the way [No call?} and intercepting the pass as if he was stealing some old ladies' purse on the street. The disrespect went a bit further as UGA inexplicably just ran out the clock near mid field as if there was no need to rub it in further knowing they had this one already. It was over. Funny thing is I was thinking all they had to do was just throw it up a couple more times and there was a chance they win in the air.


Props were a wash as Corum did nothing, but Bowers went over yardage wise and scored a TD which had a nice payback. 2-2 on the others. Georgia is a 2.5 favorite to beat Alabama and I grabbed it as i really believe the revenge factor is real in this one and it's just Georgia's time. Losing that SEC title game a few years ago was brutal as was Tua's late heave that beat the Bulldogs in the title game.

Georgia's best team and just another one of Bama's really good ones. Tough to beat a good team who matches up well with you twice in football, but I think too tough when the team who lost was embarrassed and has even more to prove. And is actually a bit better overall.

OSU all the way down to - 3.5- 4 off of the opt out news which was a foregone conclusion really [smart to do it late to make Utes prepare for them I suppose}. Opting to not play in that bowl game in that setting in Pasadena seems a little different than sitting out the Sun Bowl, the Weedeater bowl [remember that one} or a cold weather bowl in Yankee stadium or Fenway Park. It's just the latest fad. Kids just a few months from having their named called in the NFL draft are advised that there is no need to chance a major injury that may lower their stock. The horse has been out of the barn and is running more freely each year as kids who are average prospects or projected mid to lower rounds sometimes are skipping now. Utah seems to really want this game more, and has incredible fan support out there as I have heard from a few people out there. Returned tickets from OSU and the excitement factor is all in Utah's favor and understandably so. First Rose bowl against a blue blood?

Ole Miss - 1.5 should handle Baylor and I think Penn State is pretty much done now, so Arkansas likely beats them laying a couple. so, the SEC getting a couple more wins today seems like a solid bet. Still thinking about the OSU game.

Steelers getting 3.5 in Ben's last home game vs. Cleveland has value and should be a close one. Tennessee [ML - 3.5 } to cool off the Dolphins who have feasted on some weak sisters is in play. Miami losing 7 in a row then wining 7 in a row is impressive though. Titans should be able to win up front on defense as Miami O-Line is suspect against better than average defensive fronts.
 
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Harrycrane

Well-known member
Penn State at + 3.5 now teased to 9.5 with Okie State + 1.5 to + 7.5 is a good hedge on a day that I think the game will be more in line with Thursday's close competitive games. Iowa + 3 - 3.5 is available gets turnovers as we know, and Ferentz does a nice job in bowl games often against superior teams. UK has an issue turning it over. You can't really handicap turnovers per se, but in some cases you can include it in the thought process, and this is one of these more extreme cases.

Gundy has a really nice bowl record as well and the Cowboys stinging loss to Baylor in the B-12 title game is seeming to motivate them at this point instead of demoralizing them. Ole Miss has been on an UNDER streak, which seems odd considering that Kiffin is their HC. Defense has been really good, and Corral has been hurt. He's OK today, which is why I like them to win, or lone of the reasons, but I think the game staying UNDER 57.5 offers some value as well.

Utah with more buzz, energy, more support and some NFL talent opting out for OSU, the Utes are to many the play here. With the line going down to 4 I think the Buckeyes are worth a look. Even without their top receivers they still have a top receiving corp. Still have a better team overall. Not a strong opinion but having a taste on the Rose Bowl seems to be a must .
 

Tiger Alum

Active member
Well the OSU defense looks like a third string high school defense that comes in the last few minutes of a blowout. Shocking how badly coached this unit is. Worst defense I can remember at OSU since I have been following them since the 70's.
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Well the OSU defense looks like a third string high school defense that comes in the last few minutes of a blowout. Shocking how badly coached this unit is. Worst defense I can remember at OSU since I have been following them since the 70's.
Yes one of the tastes with Utah depleted at corner and OSU defense not being the same (. I didn’t think I would see this level of ineptitude ) the OVER was an easy call . If it doesn’t go OVER ? Someone is shaving points lol . Middle possibility of the game falling between 3.5 and 7.5 is Alive . Utah getting 10.5 on a teaser leg looks good but OSU still has a chance to win even with this bizzarre doings lol
 

WJ-OSU-STEELERS

Well-known member
Tiger Alum - Did you forget about some of the 1980’s Earl Brice defenses with the undersized Dline Sullivan brothers or the game that Illinois threw for 600+ yards against the Bucks? This performance is terrible but they are missing several starters. OSU will get it fixed over the off-season.
 

bigkat

Well-known member
Yes one of the tastes with Utah depleted at corner and OSU defense not being the same (. I didn’t think I would see this level of ineptitude ) the OVER was an easy call . If it doesn’t go OVER ? Someone is shaving points lol . Middle possibility of the game falling between 3.5 and 7.5 is Alive . Utah getting 10.5 on a teaser leg looks good but OSU still has a chance to win even with this bizzarre doings lol
while the defensive scheme has had a bad look for the last two seasons , since Hafley left to go to BC, but tonight without 6 D starters out then to lose Sawyer and Ransom during the game, there were some players playing tonight on D, that i have never seen on the field this year... I thought the D stepped up in the second half..... with Barnes heading to memphis, looks like the new DC will be changing some personnel.... by the way, the TE Stover was moved to linebacker... played OK, but that tells you where we are at with the linebackers......
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
What a day and some more evidence for the sit the games out if you are early draft pick crowd. I really don't have that strong an opinion on guys sitting out the bowl games TBH, I wish there was an 8-team play-off so more programs would have hopes to gain entry thus having a better chance of some of the top recruits. if the play-offs are all that matters now, why not at least expand it and give more kids a chance at it and more programs to be able to more realistically recruit using the lure of playing for a title.

The bowl games are still fun these last few days including New Year's Day bowls but having more games matter to gain entry into a final 8 in the last month, and more programs get to experience a play-off game with a big prize at the end is a good mediation for the extreme top-heavy nature of the proceedings AND more top guys on top teams will play in the post season. This won't guarantee that the top 3-4 teams won't be the same ones most years, but it can only help as with the current situation the national Semifinals are overwhelmingly not really competitive. A foregone conclusion.

Corral going out ended my Ole Miss play [Not really because it was still 7-7 in the 4th quarter but deep down, I knew} but it really made my UNDER position much stronger and that stayed well UNDER as it was a really popular play yesterday which kind of scares you a bit, but all the metrics and trends pointed that way and was a very solid value and play.

Getting Iowa at + 3.5 was HUGE, as it went that way at a few places' later morning yesterday. They choked the game away really, only needing a yard to seal it away, but punted then didn't play any defense against a very pedestrian UK offense. Too many games this year having games where I only needed a a first down and or stop to win and not getting either. This one was another example but getting the hook turned a push into0 a nice win. Iowa ironically was a turnover machine as Petras is just mistake prone.

Notre Dame literally is incapable of winning a New Year's Day bowl. On a 0-10 run now. It gets worse. The Irish gave up 30 straight points after moving it at will in the first half. Only scored again in garbage time [yes onside kick at the end but 30-0 really happened} . And how about this. The Irish were on a 49-0 when scoring at least three offensive touchdowns. Brian Kelly and the Irish were on a 40-game streak of winning outright when favored. Both of those streaks went kaput in new coach's first game. Yikes. Now the game went all the way down to PICK in some places but the Irish were favored for the last few weeks.

Arkansas was pumped up and won which we thought they would but thought Penn State may stay a bit closer with a small hedge position. WRONG. Razorbacks were the bigger opinion, and they came through nicely over a Penn State program that has been mired in MEH, the last 20 plus games after a hot start in 2019. Of course, they paid a king's ransom for Franklin. He can recruit really well. I think they rise from this mediocre fog going forward. Professional college QB Clifford comes back for year six.

Was it just me or did Utah QB look like he was about 34 years old? Long stringy sweaty hair , he appeared to be a great fit for the role of the Cowboy drug runner sidekick, looking very natural with his boots up on the table sipping a corona squinting into the sun.

Kirk Herbstreit kind of stepped in it again, with his the '" players don't love football like we did when we were so eager to get some bowl swag and play for the school no matter what. Different time. I mean even the holier than thou crowd like Bruce Hooley[I corresponded with him back in the day} with his Jim Tressel ran a renegade program because some kids sold some gold pants and other junk look stupid now. They looked stupid then, but now? It was a matter of time, and most could see this type of 'Growth" happening. Kids getting a slice of pie, the money becoming so huge that it was looking more and more like complete exploitation. I mean the nerve of the kids not thinking that a ring or some pants meant something so large that it was an actual crime to sell them? Sanctimonious adults like Hooley and his ilk abounded. There is always a problem when people suppose other's emotions and motives. Kirk did say that some do care and love the game, but he really couldn't recover from this and while not an outlandish opinion by any means, just not good to make that type of blanket statement kind of castigating a generation even if somewhat accurate. Are kids more entitled now? YES. But it isn't as simple as that.

The one-point Herbstreit made that I have made before is say a guy like UGA TE Bowers who is 19 with an already NFL body and skill set just decides to stop playing football and work on his measurables for the combine the next two seasons? Of course, his is an exception and there aren't a lot of these kids out there, but I and many others reading these spaces know of High school kids who get a lot of offers really early at 14-15 years old can sometimes become less motivated and to adopt the feeling that they already made it, and their commitment to their team wanes and it became all about them and the next step. College kids are going to think more about themselves when it comes to making a big first contract and rightfully so. Will Corral lose money? We don't knw the extent of his injury of course{hopefully not serious or affecting his status} but this occurrence will only give kids a stronger thought of not playing.

What incentive do kids who get that 4th or 5th star in HS have to keep playing if only slightly hurt or uncomfortable? You are football players, that's part of the deal. A kid like Bowers while still very draftable whether he plays football again at all for the next couple years have to keep playing for a very real reason. Because they are sought after for being football players and you get better at football by playing actual games . Yu become a more competitive tougher player by playing games. You learn to battle and compete playing games. You learn to accept contact and initiate contact on the field against other players with pads on who are trying to punish you and are competing against you.

Why do boxers spar as they do when they prepare for a fight? They do so not just to sharpen their offensive skill and punching combinations, but to train their body to accept contact and some punishment more effectively. You skip too many games or sit out too many You lose these opportunities for growth. Missing a bowl game isn't a huge deal, but I think if you open up the play-offs a bit you will get more top kids finishing the season with their teams.

Posted a few NFL thoughts earlier this week and may post another thought or two. Weather is going to be a rare larger factor today in some places. trying to figure late COVID and or injury stuff, weather and line moves.
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Goes without saying that any true Buckeye fan who was emotional about the lack of passion and or performance in the first half, have got to feel proud of the defensive improvement made with a ton of kids although talented, were as green as an Irish meadow after a 5-day soaking. Big effort in the second half all fans should be really proud of and happy for the kids, and also in awe of the QB and receivers'{ and Running backs, and O-line was good most of the day} immense talent and skill.
 

WJ-OSU-STEELERS

Well-known member
Regarding the OSU defense I would guess 1/2 of the guys who saw significant minutes on the defensive side of the ball in the Rose Bowl vs Utah will be marginal role players or see little to no minutes next year. Just way too much talent at OSU not to get the ship corrected. They have to stop the run, that was a problem throughout the season.

I would guess OSU will be at least a 7.5 pt favorite over Notre Dame next year. Maybe Harry has a number in this game. With OSU returning their qb, rb, wr and the emergence of Harrison - just way too much fire power for ND to overcome. But, they play the games for a reason….
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Regarding the OSU defense I would guess 1/2 of the guys who saw significant minutes on the defensive side of the ball in the Rose Bowl vs Utah will be marginal role players or see little to no minutes next year. Just way too much talent at OSU not to get the ship corrected. They have to stop the run, that was a problem throughout the season.

I would guess OSU will be at least a 7.5 pt favorite over Notre Dame next year. Maybe Harry has a number in this game. With OSU returning their qb, rb, wr and the emergence of Harrison - just way too much fire power for ND to overcome. But, they play the games for a reason….

Such an interesting game with both programs being such public teams people love to bet on.

Without real thought I make it closer to 10 . Home field , advantages at QB and skill positions and the ND defense isn’t better even with OSU needing some retooling and some things “ fixed “. ND will have a very good OLine and the OSU run stop game needs work . That’s the real crux of the ND possible advantage . OSU offense is likely too much which is why low two score spread seems likely
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Tennessee at -3 now .

New England up to 17.5 ( got at 15 ) Buffalo at 15.5 ( got at 14. Saints at -6 teaser with Indy ( now 8 was 6.5). Team leg in play .
Under value on Bills - Falcons ( snow )
Jets TB. (. High wind )
SF - Houston. (. Must win defensive effort and SF offensive issues )

Dallas - Arizona - Playoff type game . Murray struggle Dallas looking to tighten things up . Total a bit high
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
A few games where teams going for a playoff spot or jockeying for position vs others with either no shot. Or a remote chance for playoffs . Priced accordingly though . Pair up
 
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bigkat

Well-known member
Regarding the OSU defense I would guess 1/2 of the guys who saw significant minutes on the defensive side of the ball in the Rose Bowl vs Utah will be marginal role players or see little to no minutes next year. Just way too much talent at OSU not to get the ship corrected. They have to stop the run, that was a problem throughout the season.

I would guess OSU will be at least a 7.5 pt favorite over Notre Dame next year. Maybe Harry has a number in this game. With OSU returning their qb, rb, wr and the emergence of Harrison - just way too much fire power for ND to overcome. But, they play the games for a reason….
so who are the players that you think are going to step up and replace the players that were on the field against Utah?
 

WJ-OSU-STEELERS

Well-known member
The first two that come to mind are the highly touted freshman DE’s: Jack Sawyer & J.T. Tuimoloia. Sawyer ended his jr year in HS with a acl injury and opted out his sr year of HS, Sawyer having a subpar freshman year is not all surprising. Tuimoloia played a bit more in the Rose Bowl. Neither were impact players but the talent & expectation of so are there. OSU already has a lb transfer coming in from Arizona St (Hoban hs kid) and I would expect at least one, maybe two grad transfer type players. OSU had sophomore lb Cody Simon miss the Rose Bowl game. Finally, you don’t want to count on freshman to have an impact (see Sawyer & Tuimoloia) but OSU does have another stellar class coming in. Just today they got a DE commit from Texas (38th over ranked) and they have 2 other Dline commits.

Just looking at the tackles, OSU’s Cade Stover who was just moved back to lb from te after the Michigan game, was tied fir 3rd with 6 tackles in the game. That’s a credit to him just being a solid football player…….but also a concern for the OSU defense. The lb Eichenberg had 17 tackles.

OSU will get it figured out. Outside of Bama, no one has done it better than the Bucks over the last 20 years. It could be far worse, remember the 1980’s and the under performing 1990 teams?
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Late Sunday nights and early Monday mornings always involve the same things during football season. Re-watching or watching parts of the recorded games, with the Sunday night game with the sound down on another set. Looking at box scores and write-ups. Taking copious amounts of notes. This is what I have chosen, and it isn't a chore. It's just what I do and once it becomes a chore? Probably won't do it anymore.

Now the enjoyment level of doing this varies. Some days it's tough looking at things that didn't work out the way you would have liked and having to take yet another look at it close-up. It is as some here have heard for years now in this space, a necessary part of the process. Learning and picking up tidbits of information and seeing what worked and what didn't and why will always be a big part of the process.

Today, this is a very enjoyable exercise. A great day where the theme of backing some teams who are going for the play-offs or jockeying for position to beat teams [And cover} who are out of the play-offs or have a remote chance was successful. Totals were successful. teasers were successful overall. Just a very enjoyable day watching football. I savored a bit as I know, and everyone knows that it doesn't happen all the time. We got to 3-1 in future win totals outcomes in the books as well with the Colts the only disappointing team losing in the tease with New Orleans as well losing outright by 3 at the gun, and not clinching their season win total. They have one more chance and should get there vs. the fighting JV Jax Jaguars, so we are looking at 4-1 with only the Saints left at UNDER 9 wins, and we can only PUSH that one if they win next week at Atlanta [hedge is in play}.

Patriots at - 15 early - [closed at 17 after rising to 17.5} was the game that had the biggest blowout potential along with Buffalo and Green Bay after the un-vaxxed Cousins was ruled out. Hammered the Patriots early and with San Diego as a great early teaser as well. Belichick with his history going against rookie QB's , his history after losses when the defense is lacking like it was a bit in the previous two games. The players on defense admitting they started 'feeling " themselves a bit too much. The win and be in the play-offs dynamic. Home against a JV NFL team who is a mess. Rookie QB Lawrence struggling mightily [ one TD pass in previous 8 games?} this was ripe for a disastrous afternoon for the JV Jags. The Varsity took them apart. Lawrence did have a TD pass though. Problem was it was 50-3 at the time. Jones was efficient 22-30 for 227 [7.6 an Attempt} 3 TD zero picks 128 rating. 5 yards a pop and over 100 yards rushing. Lawrence was 17-27 with the TD but of course 3 picks were sprinkled in. 57 passer rating. Ouch.

San Diego wasn't dominant but had a Kick -off return TD and finished drives when it needed to. MUST win for them vs Denver with about a 2 percent chance of Making the play-offs was a pretty solid play. Drew Lock wasn't terrible and actually was at 9.8 and attempt [ A couple of just throw it up prayers were answered, but a solid performance overall.

Tennessee was a strong straight play - 3 and we reasoned that Miami while having an impressive run of 7 straight wins after losing 7 straight was a bit of a fraud with ideal scheduling dynamics the last 2 months. Until yesterday that is and the Fins were found out big time. Tennessee after a mid-season stumble with injuries and getting used to being without the Hammer Henry, is back on track and playing winning football. Going for the number one seed. Tennessee has a clear identity under Vrabel. They still run the football and they still are going to try to out-tough their opponents. Tannehill had a High School like line of 13-18 for 120 yards with 2 TD's and importantly no picks. [127 PR} Foreman ran for 132 yards on 26 carries [5 a pop}. Tua's limitations were on full display going 18-36 for 205 [5.4 an attempt} with one pick. Tua and the Fins offense when finally playing a strong defense was exposed. Tua isn't a guy who you want when you are well behind and need to make plays downfield to win .
Miami was simply outclassed here and we kind of knew it and cashed in.

Buffalo -14 was cruising a bit near the end of the half looking to go up another score when Allen who was Superman last week threw one of his three picks in the end zone ending the threat. Atlanta then marched down field and scored to take the lead by a point. Allen finished with 120 yards passing on 26 attempts a really low 4.6 an attempt with no TD throws. He did run for 81 yards though on 15 attempts. Buffalo defense held the Falcons offense to 265 total offense. Atlanta who has bene getting crushed when stepping up in class and ranks really low in most major statistical category's [How have they won so many games?} got the push losing by only 14. Buffalo got there in teaser leg{s} and this game stayed UNDER the total for us. We were 3-1 on UNDERS and 1-0 on the one OVER we played [Cincy - KC}.

Back in a bit with the rest of the re-cap.
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Other Under wins included Dallas - Arizona as we reasoned that Murray was not scoring as much or finishing enough drives and the game was going to feel like a play-off game and look like it and it certainly did. 53 was a bit too high and there was a dearth of points early, but it threatened late no question and I thought it was going to go over or get to 53. The QB battle was about even as Dak was 24-38 for 226 3 TD's 0 picks, 106 PR. Murray was 26-38 for 263 105 PR. Two pick 0 picks. Difference? No Dallas running game whatsoever. Arizona had a decent one with Murray going for 44 and Edmonds 53.

San Fran - Houston was another UNDER winner that came in easily. 43.5 TOTAL. 23-7 San Fran with the rookie QB Lance and the SF defense was really good as projected.

The one UNDER loser? Brady driving 92 yards in 2 minutes to get the win and sending the total OVER. The Jets scoring as much as they did was the killer and not expected. Fully expected this to be honest. I think you could have put Brady and the offense 40 yards out of the stadium, and they still would have scored somehow. Had the right play here. Got Bradied if you will.

KC-Cincinnati was wild. I did what I do sometimes and texted a friend I knew was at the game in person and got a late weather report. He said the OVER was fine and the weather wasn't too bad [Wind and lack of precipitation} As the local guys know the temp went way down over night from the previous couple days, but not much severe weather, or cold in CO and in Cincinnati yesterday. A bevy of points were scored early and often and I felt it was OVER by HT. OK not quite, but certainly inevitable. Wild finish with Taylr's bizzare insistence of getting the TD and almost going to OT not kicking the FG. I get being afraid of Mahomes to some extent but that was extreme given the circumstances.

Teams are eschewing the easy three points at an alarming rate. It's as if the rules of the game have changed. Going for it sparingly I get , but this is something that is kind of out of control and it has bitten teams more often than it has rewarded them. I get the analytics, but this is way too much in the second half of the season especially.

3rd and 27 and you don't bracket Chase all the way down the field ? You're killing me Spags, lol. I loved it as the total flew over AND my Cincy fan friends are pumped up. Win Win . Not sure you want Cincy in the play-offs with their explosiveness.

So the cherry on the top of this 'Winning" Sunday" was the Packers falling to 12.5 and with a lot of tickets already cashed threw some dough on the Packers late as the carrot of the number one seed was tantalizingly dangling in the frozen air. The Patriots I had winning by 20-23 MINIMUM. So, it was a definite and the line going up was expected as we knew where some of the money was coming from. The Packers I had winning by at least 17 when Sean Mannion [ Not to be confused with Sam Malone's go to alias 'Lance Mannion"} was tabbed the starter. Lance, I mean Sean competed fairly well, but what were the chances they even came really close to Aaron Rodgers with a one seed sitting there for the taking? ZERO. Rodgers was his machine-like self-going 29-38 for 288 2 TDs with his usual clean Interception column. RB tandem went for 140 with Jones finishing with a gaudy 76 yards on only 8 carries line [9.5}. Dalvin Cook who was being featured as being a huge key and a guy who had big games at Lambeau previously had a startling stat line. 13 yards rushing on 9 carries and an even more unreal 3 catches for ZERO yards.

The Saints- Colts teaser went out the window with the Colts meltdown with Wentz not being sharp with not being able to practice. Wentz just isn't a QB who inspires a lot of confidence ultimately. You just don't really trust him when it comes down to it. My bad but didn't get hurt too bad with taking the Colts just to win on the teaser. Raiders are a tough-minded team bouncing back from all the crap and enduring a bad stretch only to bounce back again and play a week 18 'Play-off" game with the winner of the LV-LAC game heading to the post season adn the loser staying home. I realize I sometimes call the LAC San Diego. Can't help it. lol

One of the stats that really solidified really sending it in with Tennessee at a very fair - 3 [Was - 3.5} was the Dolphins pop gun offense not matching up with better defenses. As it was after their seven-game winning streak playing some weak sisters, The Dolphins offense was
30TH in the league in yards per play. If you are 30th in yards per play and heading into Tennessee who wants a one seed badly. you aren't going to fare very well.

Game needs to be played of course, but we end the week with a play we sent out to everyone earlier in the week. Pittsburgh was getting 3.5 and we grabbed it. They are now favored by a couple points, so a 5.5-point line value. Pittsburgh will play hard for Ben and the crowd will be into it. getting 3.5 was an easy call and most bettors agree it appears.


Getting some other thoughts together but one last one now. The PAC-12 went winless in the bowl season and hasn't won a bowl game since 2019. YIKES .
 

bigkat

Well-known member
The first two that come to mind are the highly touted freshman DE’s: Jack Sawyer & J.T. Tuimoloia. Sawyer ended his jr year in HS with a acl injury and opted out his sr year of HS, Sawyer having a subpar freshman year is not all surprising. Tuimoloia played a bit more in the Rose Bowl. Neither were impact players but the talent & expectation of so are there. OSU already has a lb transfer coming in from Arizona St (Hoban hs kid) and I would expect at least one, maybe two grad transfer type players. OSU had sophomore lb Cody Simon miss the Rose Bowl game. Finally, you don’t want to count on freshman to have an impact (see Sawyer & Tuimoloia) but OSU does have another stellar class coming in. Just today they got a DE commit from Texas (38th over ranked) and they have 2 other Dline commits.

Just looking at the tackles, OSU’s Cade Stover who was just moved back to lb from te after the Michigan game, was tied fir 3rd with 6 tackles in the game. That’s a credit to him just being a solid football player…….but also a concern for the OSU defense. The lb Eichenberg had 17 tackles.

OSU will get it figured out. Outside of Bama, no one has done it better than the Bucks over the last 20 years. It could be far worse, remember the 1980’s and the under performing 1990 teams?
yes Sawyer and JT did play alot this past year considering they are true HIGHLY RANKED freshman this past year... and i thought Sawyer took his play up a notch in the Rose bowl game until he got kicked out of the game for targeting..... the Hoban kid played RB at Arizona St , but will play LB at Tosu...... hope Z Harrison comes back, as highly ranked he was, he really hasn't lived up to 5 star ranking...... the big thing is going to be if changes are made to the DEF staff, heard combs might be heading to LSU..... and Barnes is heading to Memphis.... should be a interesting couple of days coming up ...
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
A few numbers concerning the Browns Steelers match-up in Big Ben's last home game. Ben is 24-2-1 in his career vs Cleveland. He has won 17 in a row vs Cleveland in the regular season. 14-1 vs Cleveland in Home finales. Pittsburgh is on a 19-0 streak at home on Monday night.

Line was Cleveland - 3.5, and then went to Pittsburgh - 2.5 -3. Browns buy back and middle plays have it back to Pitt -1. Didn't try to middle it, just sticking with Steelers + 3.5 and feeling pretty good that it will be a three-point game either way.
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Big win for us with the Steelers being one of the biggest plays of the last month in Ben's last game. Tennessee crushing Miami and the Steelers winning getting some points in Ben's last game were sent out early and became stronger when it was determined for sure that Cleveland had nothing to play and was out of the play-offs. for Line went from Browns - 3.5 to Steelers - 3 back down to Steelers - 1. Easily covering the 3.5 and the closing line. Steelers haven't had a losing season under Tomlin and their streak of not having one is by the longest in the NFL. Been a disappointing last few years in the Big Ben era but it was a cool night.

Cleveland looked like a poorly coached team and had as disappointing of a season as you can have given the expectations. Huge profits this weekend and with the futures looking good and a few already cashed, this last weekend with most teams not playing for a play-off berth.

Liked the Steelers quite a bit last night and was very confident that the game would be a 3-point game either way at the closest and if it was it cashes no matter who wins as I got the Steelers early as stated days ago getting more than three points [3.5}. They weren't great and Ben averaged an unreal less than three yards an attempt, but they sent him out in style, especially that late exclamation point dash in the final minute by Harris. Was hoping for one more Ben throw on that third down, but of course they were only up 5 and the clock was the the important thing at that point and then Harris just needing the first down to seal the victory took it to the house with 51 seconds left .


Interesting line movements

Indy on the road at JV Jax, opened at _ 8.5 and has shot up past the 2 TD mark and is at -15.5. Dallas has shot up to - 7 at Philly. With GB clinching the one seed they fell from an early line of - 11 all the way to - 2.5. New England playing for seeding has moved 4 points from - 2.5 to - 6.5. Tampa down to 8.5 from 15-16. A week with not much meaning for most is a tricky handicap. Some totals may be the way to go and hitting a bit 56 percent of them for the year including 4-1 this weekend, may be the way to go again. Of course, some teams may be using other QB's for at least portions to give them a look. [Kellen Mond? lol}
 
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