Division Breakdowns

 
Madame Secretary said:
Any indication on the division breakdown for fall and winter sports? Anyone have a guess where the lines well be drawn for basketball?
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We've been working on this for the past week. We're expecting to have our breakdown finished and posted by tomorrow morning. Our projections will be unofficial as we won't have OHSAA's competitive balance numbers. For example, Hoban would be D2 and Mooney would be on the borderline of D3/D4 based off of the enrollment numbers without competitive balance.

As for OHSAA, the final enrollment numbers have been confirmed and just need to add the competitive balance numbers. According to their timeline, the Winter Sports divisional breakdowns will be approved at their June meeting. That means the official breakdowns probably won't be released until mid-June to July at the earliest.
 
OHSAA will post it on their website but as said above, that won't be really soon. Posting numbers without CB included will be kind of a waste as the CB has a big influence.
 
We'll be posting them eventually via link to our website. Just working on typing it up right now. However, I'll post our thoughts below on our reasoning for how we did it.


Our divisional breakdowns

Division I = 320 and More
Division II = 185 to 316
Division III = 109 to 184
Division IV = 108 and Less

Where we got in some trouble was the Division I and Division II split. The cut off was right at Goshen (313) but had Howland (above Goshen) and Monroe (below Goshen) with 313 as well. The next below was 312 and the next highest number was 316. We felt that gap warranted to keep 313 in D2, but then that left Aurora at 316 with an issue. They have a three number gap between them and Howland/Goshen/Monroe while a four number gap between them and Garrett Morgan at 320. With that scenario, we decided that the line would be at Aurora.

Then at D2/D3 line, you have 185 with six schools and 184 with five schools, So naturally we kept 185 in D2 and made 184 the line for D3. Then 109/108 was the line for D3/D4.

Hoping to have everything typed and broken down by this afternoon. It took us until this morning to debate about Aurora in D1 or D2 based off just the enrollment numbers. Obviously, this is just for fun and I'm sure there won't be that big of a gap on either side of Aurora when the competitive balance numbers come into play and could make things easier for OHSAA to find the lines (or possibly more difficult).
 
MCGal said:
OHSAA will post it on their website but as said above, that won't be really soon. Posting numbers without CB included will be kind of a waste as the CB has a big influence.
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Yeah, it's definitely a waste of time but it's fun to see the "what if's" if there wasn't competitive balance.

EDIT: Plus, a school like Cardinal Mooney is interesting in this situation. On the enrollment numbers, they would be either Division IV or Division III which is big for them. The reason is because a few years ago, Lutheran East had Division IV enrollment numbers and jumped up to Division II after competitive balance numbers were added. After that and potentially a few others that jumped two divisions as well, OHSAA decided schools can only go up one division due to competitive balance numbers, not two divisions (unless they changed that back again).

Which means if Mooney is in Division IV on enrollment numbers, they can only go as high as Division III next season, not Division II. But if they were Division III based on enrollment numbers, they could go as high as Division II. That's one of the rare scenarios the enrollment numbers could mean something.
 
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I have heard some discussion that 2022-23 could be the year that the division sizes aren't kept equal to take into account of the large enrollment difference in D1. So instead of 195 schools in each division in Girls Basketball. D1 might have 150 schools and D2-4 would have like 210 schools. Anyone else hearing this? One would think that if that is going to happen that it would start in the fall season.
 
Here are the links below with the summary on bottom 10 schools based on these enrollment numbers for Division I, II, and III with the top 10 schools based on these enrollment numbers for Division II, III, and IV.

Division I - https://ohiohoopnews.com/2022/04/11...-2022-23-season-based-off-enrollment-figures/

Bottom 11 schools in Division I - Revere 330, Bowling Green 330, Western Brown 329, Columbus St. Francis De Sales, 328, Rocky River 328, Bellbrook 328, Tiffin Columbian 326, Cincinnati Northwest 325, Grafton Midview 323, Mansfield Madison Comprehensive 322, Cleveland Garrett Morgan 320

Top 11 schools in Division II - Aurora 316, Howland 313, Goshen 313, Monroe 313, New Philadelphia 312, Bedford 312, Greenville 311, Franklin 310, Dover 308, Youngstown Chaney 308, Copley 308

Division II - https://ohiohoopnews.com/2022/04/11...-2022-23-season-based-off-enrollment-figures/

Bottom 12 schools in Division II - North Union 189, Beaver Local 189, Clear Fork 189, St Martin De Porres 188, Poland Seminary 187, Hebron Lakewood 186, Johnstown 185, Clearview 185, Oak Harbor 185, Ottawa-Glandorf 185, River Valley 185, Carlisle 185

Top 13 schools in Division III - Coshocton 184, Meadowbrook 184, Cleveland Central Catholic 184, Galion 184, Wellston 184, Upper Sandusky 183, Ravenna Southeast 181, Bethel - Tate 181, Waynesville 181, Saint Clairsville 180, Chippewa 180, Greenon 180, Reading 180

Division III - https://ohiohoopnews.com/2022/04/11...-2022-23-season-based-off-enrollment-figures/

Bottom 10 schools in Division III - Rittman 111, Garaway 110, Brookfield 110, Columbia 110, New Middletown Springfield 110, Georgetown 110, Houston 110, Triad 110, Waterloo 109, Lucasville Valley 109

Top 12 schools in Division IV - Cardinal Mooney 108, Newton Falls 108, Gibsonburg 108, Woodmore 108, Dalton 107, Monroe Central 106, Mineral Ridge 105, Mount Gilead 104, Tree of Life Christian 104, Canton Central Catholic 104, Mechanicsburg 104, Saint Bernard - Elmwood Place 104

Division IV - https://ohiohoopnews.com/2022/04/11...-2022-23-season-based-off-enrollment-figures/
 
Madame Secretary said:
I have heard some discussion that 2022-23 could be the year that the division sizes aren't kept equal to take into account of the large enrollment difference in D1. So instead of 195 schools in each division in Girls Basketball. D1 might have 150 schools and D2-4 would have like 210 schools. Anyone else hearing this? One would think that if that is going to happen that it would start in the fall season.
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I've heard those rumors for a few years now. I'm not sure if that's something that would need to be voted on or not by the member schools to reduce Division I by that many schools. In my opinion, I doubt it happens for the 2022-23 season, but it wouldn't shock me either as this is the first time the new enrollment numbers have been used in a few years.
 
Do the Competitive Balance number of a school stay somewhat the same year to year? Could someone look at last year’s CB of a school and get an idea of this year’s number? Or are they too random for that?
 
Madame Secretary said:
Do the Competitive Balance number of a school stay somewhat the same year to year? Could someone look at last year’s CB of a school and get an idea of this year’s number? Or are they too random for that?
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I wouldn't look into the ones from last year too much. They could rapidly change based off of graduation, kids not playing again, etc.

CB number is based off the roster from the previous season. If someone had a few seniors with CB numbers and incoming freshmen or newcomers to the program don't add any more to the CB number, it'll be a lot lower than the previous season. I just think there are too many variables to even guess the CB numbers which is why McGal mentioned the waste of time the enrollment numbers would be.

Only exception is like I mentioned above about the Cardinal Mooney situation. They were Division II last season, but if they're in Division IV prior to competitive balance number, they can't be in Division II this upcoming season.
 
The cutoff between D-1 and D-2 last cycle was 334 for girl's basketball. Why do you think it will drop to between 316 and 320 this cycle?
 
iluvsnow said:
The cutoff between D-1 and D-2 last cycle was 334 for girl's basketball. Why do you think it will drop to between 316 and 320 this cycle?
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The cutoff will probably be higher than 316/320 when you add the competitive balance numbers. Those are not added here which is why it's around 316/320.

We took the enrollment figures from the OHSAA website for the 22-23 school year which is the final count. Then, we went one by one to see which schools did not participate in the girls' basketball tournament. Those that didn't participate in the tournament, are not included in the list because OHSAA doesn't include them when they do the divisional alignments. After all that, it landed us at 771 schools into four divisions. So we looked into trying to do that as evenly as possible, so we were looking somewhere between 191-194 for the cutoff for each division. 193 schools was at the second 313. Putting Aurora in D2 put Division I at 191 schools. Division II ended up with 192 and Division III ended up with 194 each.

All of this is just based off enrollment figures. CB numbers will obviously change it all and we'll find those out in mid-June.
 
Division I = 320 to 1251(Mason)) 931 gap
Division II = 185 to 316 131 gap
Division III = 109 to 184 75 gap
Division IV = 29(Sciotoville) -108 79 gap
 
Interesting, good work with this, it definitely is fascinating.

The D3 Elida district based on this would look A LOT different next year with Spencerville being listed as D4 and then Liberty Benton and Ottawa Glandorf being moved to D2.......the Titans is especially fascinating considering your # would have them in D2 BY ONE with 185 being the absolute lowest to get bumped up and that being listed as their enrollment.

Can't wait to see how this turns out with the OHSAA eventual #s.
 
Madame Secretary said:
When you have done this in the past, how much change was there to the D1 - D2 line?
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After competitive balance numbers were implemented, usually the line is around 330s but hard to tell where it will be this time. My guess is it might be around that again. Just hard to gauge without the CB numbers.
 
My guess for numbers with CB included - a little bit different than those listed above.

Division I = 327 and More
Division II = 191 to 326
Division III = 118 to 190
Division IV = 117 and Less
 
GREENDAY said:
My guess for numbers with CB included - a little bit different than those listed above.

Division I = 327 and More
Division II = 191 to 326
Division III = 118 to 190
Division IV = 117 and Less
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D1 will likely be quite a bit higher than 327 after CB
 
Madame Secretary said:
Who knows?
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GREENDAY is correct. Everything is done because it's being approved today. Some people already know the breakdowns because of that and I'm sure most(if not all) the schools know where they're going to be at in certain sports.

Back in Spring 2019, I was told by a parent that their school believed they would be Division IV in girls basketball that upcoming season. They did in fact move from Division III to Division IV for the 19-20 season. So schools should have a good idea where they might be for a particular sport.
 
 
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