averagejoe01
New member
I think the ideal scenario for McDonald is have Loudonville lose to Ready and end up the 4/5 with STA.
D VI Regon 19 -- Four or Five 10-0 Teams??
- Thread starter Kirtland Fan
- Start date
Orange20hd
Member
If you look at Drew's numbers Bishop Ready is out of the playoff picture if they lose to Loudonville and Hartley. So this weeks game is very big for D6 overall, Loudonville, Bishop Ready, and all schools fighting for a playoff spot in Regions 19 and 21.
kingpin2010
Well-known member
What's amazing is McDonald is gonna finish with 22ish Harbins and possibly be the 6 seed, while 2009 they had 19.7 Harbins and were the #1 seed in then region 21. The projections have both Cuyahoga heights and Springfield losing a game the rest of the way to finish 7-3, I'd assume McDonald will need at least one of them to go 8-2, possibly both to get the home game along with a Loudonville loss this week.
kingpin2010
Well-known member
This, especially if McDonald can get some help and manage to get the 4. A STA and Garaway road to the regional final and leaving Kirtland, Loudonville and Mogadore all to battle it out would be a good stroke of luck.
bleedingreen6
New member
That's how loaded this region is. You are hoping to be on the side of the bracket with a most likely 10-0 Garaway team! A team that some think is the best in their schools history!
Buck1974
Well-known member
I actually have Aquinas with 21.80 points at 9-1 and anywhere from 18.10 to 18.90 at 8-2. VASJ needs to win out and Aquinas can probably lose another game and still get in.
I do not see Loudonville going 9-1. The only two games left against decent teams are Bishop Ready and Gilmour Academy. I see Loudonville winning both those games comfortably and being 10-0.
Bishop Ready is nowhere near the team they were last year (the second best DVI team in the State behind Kirtland). They lost something like 17-18 of their 22 starters to graduation.
a 10-0 Loudonville jumps to #1, setting up the following sides of the bracket...
Region 19 Projections
1) Loudonville (10-0) 25.90
2) Garaway (Sugarcreek) (10-0) 24.50
3) Mogadore (10-0) 24.05
4) Kirtland (10-0) 23.50
5) St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) (9-1) 22.40
6) Mc Donald (10-0) 22.15
7) Hillsdale (Jeromesville) (8-2) 18.40
8) Springfield (New Middletown) (7-3) 16.85
An 8-2 Springfield could also bump McDonald up to 5, so it looks like a rematch from last year (McDonald and Kirtland) is in the cards with a few different scenarios being a 9-1 Loudonville or an 8-2 Springfield with a 10-0 Loudonville. CRAZY.
Region 19 Projections
1) Loudonville (10-0) 25.90
2) Garaway (Sugarcreek) (10-0) 24.50
3) Mogadore (10-0) 24.05
4) Kirtland (10-0) 23.50
5) St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) (9-1) 22.40
6) Mc Donald (10-0) 22.15
7) Hillsdale (Jeromesville) (8-2) 18.40
8) Springfield (New Middletown) (7-3) 16.85
An 8-2 Springfield could also bump McDonald up to 5, so it looks like a rematch from last year (McDonald and Kirtland) is in the cards with a few different scenarios being a 9-1 Loudonville or an 8-2 Springfield with a 10-0 Loudonville. CRAZY.
bleedingreen6
New member
Don't they play Danville as well. I think Danville beat Gilmour pretty badly. They could be pushed a bit in that one.
Buck1974
Well-known member
You are correct, I missed that one. Yes, that may be their toughest game.
louisvilleluvssta
New member
The quarterback played last Friday. He no longer plays defense but thankfully it's his non throwing shoulder that is hurt so he can still play offense
Mr. Slippery
Well-known member
Gilmour is not as good as their record.
Loudonville shouldn't have any trouble with Danville. I'm also with Buck1974 regarding Bishop Ready. I think Loudonville should win that game, too.
Kirtland Fan
Active member
Well, to be clear, Kirtland was a D5 school up until last year (2013) when it became a D6 school, thanks to the OHSAA creating a 7th division and modifying head count cut-offs for re-assignment of teams to divisions. Kirtland went from being a smaller D5 team to one of the larger D6 teams. That was good for Kirtland, and bad for smaller D6 schools because Kirtland was "battle tested" playing against some of the best D5 schools in the playoffs for two years before the change.
Pre-2013, in D5, you are giving Kirtland way too much credit, as the Region almost exclusively went through Ursuline. Kirtland's strength in D5 was only in 2011 (their championship year in D5) and 2012 (their runner-up year in D5).
Looking back at 2013, all that I have to compare Region 19 teams to are the teams that Kirtland played in the playoffs, because I attended every single game last year. At the risk of offending Wayne-Trace fans, I believe that Bishop Ready would have beaten Wayne-Trace, and Moggy and STA probably would have beat them too. However, Newark Catholic was no slouch last year either, losing to Ready in a tough game. Aside from Bishop Ready, I believe that a couple of teams that Kirtland faced in the Region 19 playoffs were tougher than Wayne-Trace last year.
2014 is different because teams have changed. Some graduated key players (and became weaker) and others became stronger. For example, I don't think that Ready is as strong as they were last year because they lost quite a few kids. Loudonville's game against Ready will answer a few questions. Ready is still a well coached team, and if Loudonville can get past Ready, and then get past an improved Gilmour team, Loudonville may rightfully claim "king of the mountain" in Region 19.
Kirtland Fan
Active member
Not much "elbow room" in Region 19, is there?? :laugh:
Looking only at the teams that I know a little bit about, I believe that Moggy, Garaway, Kirtland and McDonald will probably win out for the rest of the year. With that assumption, I expect those teams will be the top four in our Region (based on points) and have home games. After week 1, points don't matter. All games are "road" games.
I don't have any knowledge of Loudonville or how they stack up against Ready or Gilmour, but I'm basing my above statement on the Ready team that Kirtland fought with in the semi-final game last year. In other words, I expect Ready to beat Loudonville. However, I understand that Ready graduated many players last year, so I may be way off base. If Loudonville loses to both Ready and Gilmour, that will probably knock them down to 7th or 8th in our Region, or out of playoff contention altogether. If they lose one of those games, it's hard to say where they will fall, and 5th place is a fair guess.
VASJ and STA actually control their own destiny. Win out and they're in. STA v. VASJ should be a good game, but both teams can't overlook Cleveland Central Catholic (both teams play CCC this year), as they are always tough, irrespective of their record.
I would have guessed that STA and McDonald would have swapped positions in the above ranking. STA's victories this year must have been against better teams compared to McDonald.
Kirtland Fan
Active member
I agree. Very important game.
Kirtland Fan
Active member
I don't want to be a naysayer, but I'm not sold on Loudonville yet. If they win out, I'll give them the props that they deserve. I'm reserving judgment until after their games against Ready and Gilmour.
I think that most of the teams in d6 now were part of the d5 that Kirtland was in, so it's not like Kirtland went down to d6 and beat up smaller schools. Their success really started in 08 when they took powerhouse Ursuline to the wire in the regional finals.
Kirtland Fan
Active member
You see Loudonville beating Ready and Gilmour comfortably? Have you seen the three teams play this year? I haven't, so that's why I'm reserving judgment. Loudonville is going to have to prove themselves to me by beating both Gilmour and Ready.
I agree with your statement regarding Ready not being the same team that Kirtland struggled to get past last year. However, I've followed their team for the past couple of years, and their coaches always have Ready ready to play (pun intended).
Kirtland Fan
Active member
I'm going to defer to you folks who admittedly are more familiar with Gilmour and Ready this year than I am.
Based on your comments, Loudonville should roll both Ready and Gilmour?
Kirtland Fan
Active member
I hate to correct you, but based upon the above ranking, wouldn't STA have to travel to Kirtland for week 11? McDonald would travel to Moggy, correct?
Kirtland Fan
Active member
Good points.
Buck1974
Well-known member
Correct, basically the only two really good programs that went to the new D5 region from the old D5 region were Ursuline and Crestview. The new D6 Region 19 is basically the same with the addition of some other great programs like Mogadore.
Interesting fact with Loudonville's remaining schedule is that the last four games are all on the road. Gilmour is a pretty good drive from Loudonville and Ready while closer is still a decent drive. I still stand by my opinion that Loudonville wins both games easily. I admit I haven't seen any of these teams play and am just basing it on their schedules and results thus far so I could be mistaken.
Kenny Tuggle
Active member
Definitely not garaways best ever. Maybe best defense they've had in a while offensively not even close to a few agos with walter kid and company.
That is correct... the bump up to #5 for McDonald would be if Springfield wins out and gives McDonald enough 2nd level points to jump STA for 5th. So to clarify...
- If Loudonville loses... it looks like a 1st round rematch for Kirtland and McDonald.
- If Loudonville and Springfield wins out (not out of the question), it would also likely create an arena for the rematch.
Those are two very probable scenarios... but to your point, if Springfield does lose another game, then McDonald would likely travel to Moggy.
Kirtland Fan
Active member
OK, I get your point.
Kirtland Fan
Active member
Your guess is as good as mine regarding what Loudonville will do on the road against Ready and Gilmour.
I'm guessing that Ready will be the more difficult of the two games for Loudonville.
SliceLikeAHammer
Active member
That is way oversimplified. It is so close that one or two bad teams winning/losing to other bad teams can change matchups all over the board. It is much too early to make plans.
Stark Born & Bred
Well-known member
I understand that Ursuline was the class of the region before you but between the two of you, you have had a staranglehold on the region for a good deal of time.
As for last year, do you think STA or Moggy could have beat Ready?
Ready is not in Region 19 and he refuted your original point about the strength of the Region. I think it was already stated that Kirtland and Ready were the two best teams in D6 last year. How does that diminish the depth and overall strength of Region 19? It obviously doesn't. Region 19 has 6 of the top 10 D6 teams this year and was similar last year. Go back and look at Regions 20, 21 and 22. They were clearly not close to Region 19 in overall depth and strength. Not really sure what your point is here Born but your stated point is not a very strong one.
For further emphasis, let's look at your school's region, Region 15. The likely number 2-3 seed in Region 15, Liberty, got drubbed by Region 19 VASJ 54-29. VASJ may have to win out just to make the playoffs in Region 19 and if so will still be a low seed.
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Kirtland Fan
Active member
No, not last year. However, aside from Ready and Kirtland, if you would ask which teams would have had the best chance to win it all last year, I would put Newark Catholic, Moggy and STA in that discussion.