CoronaVirus

[Arrogate]

Those models aren’t necessarily supposed to be accurate as most of the data is widely influenced by a lot of assumptions; they are supposed to show directionally what can happen under various scenarios so decisions can be made to best mitigate a threat. So I guess I don’t get the fascination with model accuracy as the situation is constantly changing.

I understand the difficulties of models and the not "necessarily supposed to be accurate" but I also recognize that this model is driving policy. I think every effort should be made, like making it open source for "smart people" to help it become more accurate. It is driving policy and the more accurate it is the better. As i said they likely will "open it up", more time will help the model, and it could be a huge asset to safely opening up the economy.

My biggest fatuation is how can we safely go back to normal and I think much smarter people than me can and will help (if they finally make it OSC) in that regard by making the model more accurate. An accurate model is our best asset in safely returning to normal IMO

 

[cabezadecaballo]

Coronavirus in New York came from Europe, not China.

New York-area coronavirus outbreak originated primarily in Europe, not China: report

Two separate studies show that the coronavirus outbreak in the New York City area – by far the most deadly in the US – originated from Europe, not China, according to a report. Researchers conducti…

nypost.com

Most city Covid-19 cases came from Europe, genome researchers say

The explosion of Covid-19 cases in the New York City area resulted largely from infected patients who flew in from Europe, genome scientists say. Researchers at NYU Langone Health said they’ve analyzed 75 samples from patients who were diagnosed with Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel…

www.crainsnewyork.com

And the level of devastation came from Cuomo's dithering and playing read/react behind better Governors, instead of being a real leader. His comments publically in early February demonstrate that he understood the gravity and epidemiological implications inherent within NYC's demographics. He acknowledges early on that he has the best health care professionals at his disposal, to guide him. What happened between the second week of February and March 19th ?

Let's not forget that this is the CHI-I-I-NAH virus, eh Tom ?

 

[cabezadecaballo]

Are there still people out there who still believe in the models? Imagine being one of those people

Imagine staking your poliical career on the worst-case models of a fake Chinese timeline (Chinese lies made to conceal their irresponsible obfuscations and lies early on), and then having to reel it all back in wihout looking stupid. Tall task.....

 

[cabezadecaballo]

It's a lose-lose situation for the government imo

They put harsh restrictions in place to stop the spread which appear to be working, and people question them because it killed the economy. If they had done nothing and hundreds of thousands had died, it would have been anarchy. But the govt was definitely way off with the "best case scenario" models and now people think the economy was killed for no reason.

I remember reading a Twitter thread several weeks ago where a scientist claimed the best case scenario was like two million deaths in North America, even if social distancing was put in place. Those people look like total morons now

this

 

[cabezadecaballo]

Those models aren’t necessarily supposed to be accurate as most of the data is widely influenced by a lot of assumptions; they are supposed to show directionally what can happen under various scenarios so decisions can be made to best mitigate a threat. So I guess I don’t get the fascination with model accuracy as the situation is constantly changing.

I find more than "directional" guidance in the emphatic repetition of clearly outsized numbers and fractional token revisions as they SHOULD be significantly more accurately informed by added data. I see scare tactics and/or atempts at damage control of image.

 

[clarkgriswold]

It's a lose-lose situation for the government imo

They put harsh restrictions in place to stop the spread which appear to be working, and people question them because it killed the economy. If they had done nothing and hundreds of thousands had died, it would have been anarchy. But the govt was definitely way off with the "best case scenario" models and now people think the economy was killed for no reason.

I remember reading a Twitter thread several weeks ago where a scientist claimed the best case scenario was like two million deaths in North America, even if social distancing was put in place. Those people look like total morons now

Exactly. I don't have enough likes for this.

 

[tom 48]

And the level of devastation came from Cuomo's dithering and playing read/react behind better Governors, instead of being a real leader. His comments publically in early February demonstrate that he understood the gravity and epidemiological implications inherent within NYC's demographics. He acknowledges early on that he has the best health care professionals at his disposal, to guide him. What happened between the second week of February and March 19th ?

Let's not forget that this is the CHI-I-I-NAH virus, eh Tom ?

Let's talk about leadership

Trump learned of a memo in January warning 'half a million American souls' could die of coronavirus, and he was displeased his adviser put it in writing

President Donald Trump was reportedly told as early as January about his adviser's memo warning of mass death in the US from a coronavirus outbreak.

www.businessinsider.com

Trump calls coronavirus Democrats' 'new hoax'

“Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus,” Trump said at a rally on Friday.

www.nbcnews.com

Fauci on Trump's delayed response to coronavirus: "It is what it is"

"We make a recommendation. Often the recommendation is taken. Sometimes it's not."

www.axios.com

The conflict between Cuomo and deBlasio really hurt New York City. They could have been more effective had they been adults and put their personal feelings aside. As a result, the city has been under seige and more people have probably died due to the inaction. I don't understand why Cuomo is being looked at as a hero.

 

[cabezadecaballo]

Let's talk about leadership

Trump learned of a memo in January warning 'half a million American souls' could die of coronavirus, and he was displeased his adviser put it in writing

President Donald Trump was reportedly told as early as January about his adviser's memo warning of mass death in the US from a coronavirus outbreak.

www.businessinsider.com

Trump calls coronavirus Democrats' 'new hoax'

“Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus,” Trump said at a rally on Friday.

www.nbcnews.com

Fauci on Trump's delayed response to coronavirus: "It is what it is"

"We make a recommendation. Often the recommendation is taken. Sometimes it's not."

www.axios.com

The conflict between Cuomo and deBlasio really hurt New York City. They could have been more effective had they been adults and put their personal feelings aside. As a result, the city has been under seige and more people have probably died due to the inaction. I don't understand why Cuomo is being looked at as a hero.

Not sure what you are trying to say about Navarro, but in what scenario should Trump give a sh1t about how an economic advisor sees a looming pandemic ? The financial implications of a pandemic are self evident and I’d think Trump would not need Navarro to state the obvious. I’m sure he was up to his Orange eyebrows in different opinions from health advisors. “As early as January” there were also just as certainly many memos downplaying the severity of the disease. The once-lauded WHO would have a few among that number. The Peter Navarro missive was received the day before Trump shut down China travel. Trump likely was occupied with more important opinions. Why the left continues to pretend that this is a thing is beyond me.

It is very obvious that “the hoax” is the “Trump mishandled the WuuHooFlu response” narrative. Trump expressed that awkwardly. Whoopee.

The WHO was pulling Trump away from shutdown right up until he did it. There were certainly other dissenters. But what I have to wonder is how Fauci would characterize Cuomo’s response. The worst part of the axios piece for Trump is their title. Put Brooklyn-born Fauci’s statements against Cuomo’s actions. Fauci’s generic comments make Cuomo out for a fool in that context. DiBlasio grief is just noise.

I’ve been reading you for years in here, Tom. You are obviously a bright man, but also a liberal, so I find it no surprise that you would be opposed to Trump. What I do find a bit surprising is a thoughtful man jumping in with the Happy and Harry hyena pack. I’d be far more interested in why you might be opposed to Trump’s policies than a rehash of that bunch. You may not have noticed, but I’m half a liberal myself sometimes.

 

[Sig Hansen]

I get aggravated about how the media keeps reporting that the USA has the most reported cases/deaths while taking China's reported numbers as absolute fact, while also completely ignoring the fact that Italy/Spain/Germany/England etc have 1/4 to 1/6 the population of the USA. No sh-it we have more cases than Italy, we have 260 million more people than they do.
What's even sadder imo is that most Americans have no clue what the general population of any Europeans country is, but that's another argument. When you compare the USA to other countries while factoring in population size, and that the USA counts every corona related death as a corona death regardless of preexisting conditions, we are faring pretty well, especially regarding mortality rate:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Google News

See the map, stats, and news for areas affected by COVID-19 on Google News

news.google.com

At the bottom is the USA without New York City, whose leaders have completely bungled the pandemic from the very beginning, and as a result NYC now makes up almost 9,000 deaths and 103,000 cases alone, despite accounting for only 3% of the USA's total population.

So it might be a bit unfair to do this comparison now because the USA is trending like 10 days behind Europe in infection rates, but the USA is handling the virus as well or better than most hard-hit European countries with the exception of Germany, Portugal and Austria, despite getting a late start on containing the virus. If Portugal's numbers are legitimate then that's amazing; they are neighbours with the hardest hit country on earth but have less than half the infection rates per person and a 70% lower mortality rate. Most of the world has 1,000-3,000 cases per 10M citizens, but China and Russia have 58.6 and 107.7 respectively. Lmao ???

 

[Sig Hansen]

And wtf is France doing? Only 60% as many cases as Italy and Spain but a much higher mortality rate than both. Jesus Christ.

 

[eastside_purple]

I get aggravated about how the media keeps reporting that the USA has the most reported cases/deaths while taking China's reported numbers as absolute fact, while also completely ignoring the fact that Italy/Spain/Germany/England etc have 1/4 to 1/6 the population of the USA. No sh-it we have more cases than Italy, we have 260 million more people than they do.
What's even sadder imo is that most Americans have no clue what the general population of any Europeans country is, but that's another argument. When you compare the USA to other countries while factoring in population size, and that the USA counts every corona related death as a corona death regardless of preexisting conditions, we are faring pretty well, especially regarding mortality rate:

View attachment 6710

Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Google News

See the map, stats, and news for areas affected by COVID-19 on Google News

news.google.com

At the bottom is the USA without New York City, whose leaders have completely bungled the pandemic from the very beginning, and as a result NYC now makes up almost 9,000 deaths and 103,000 cases alone, despite accounting for only 3% of the USA's total population.

So it might be a bit unfair to do this comparison now because the USA is trending like 10 days behind Europe in infection rates, but the USA is handling the virus as well or better than most hard-hit European countries with the exception of Germany, Portugal and Austria, despite getting a late start on containing the virus. If Portugal's numbers are legitimate then that's amazing; they are neighbours with the hardest hit country on earth but have less than half the infection rates per person and a 70% lower mortality rate. Most of the world has 1,000-3,000 cases per 10M citizens, but China and Russia have 58.6 and 107.7 respectively. Lmao ???

I agree with most of this post, except for a couple things: the media can only show what is reported, it’s up to the reader to decide if the numbers from China, Russia, and Iran are correct. And most readers know those countries government tightly controls information, so people know to at least take them with a grain of salt. Second, you can’t throw out a mega msa for the us without also doing the same for the European countries. I’m sure France and Spain would look much better without Paris and Madrid included. But overall, I understand the context of your point.

 

[zeeman]

I agree with most of this post, except for a couple things: the media can only show what is reported, it’s up to the reader to decide if the numbers from China, Russia, and Iran are correct. And most readers know those countries government tightly controls information, so people know to at least take them with a grain of salt. Second, you can’t throw out a mega msa for the us without also doing the same for the European countries. I’m sure France and Spain would look much better without Paris and Madrid included. But overall, I understand the context of your point.

Well I’m glad you understand that he destroyed all your snarky comments of how poorly the US is doing. If this wasn’t a post from Sig you would have been snarky as hell and you know it, you hypocrite

 

[MoeDude]

Well I’m glad you understand that he destroyed all your snarky comments of how poorly the US is doing. If this wasn’t a post from Sig you would have been snarky as hell and you know it, you hypocrite

Nails it!

 

[Sig Hansen]

I agree with most of this post, except for a couple things: the media can only show what is reported, it’s up to the reader to decide if the numbers from China, Russia, and Iran are correct. And most readers know those countries government tightly controls information, so people know to at least take them with a grain of salt.

This is nonsense imo. It took me half an hour to look up this data, and see that China's numbers are so laughably false that it begs to be investigated by someone to determine how many deaths China really has. Where is the NYT, Wapo, CNN etc? These are stories about the deaths of tens of thousands of people, but I guess the best we can do is take these numbers at face value, while still reporting that the USA has "the most coronavris cases in the world". ?‍ It's been estimated that Wuhan has between 40-45k deaths alone.

Second, you can’t throw out a mega msa for the us without also doing the same for the European countries. I’m sure France and Spain would look much better without Paris and Madrid included. But overall, I understand the context of your point.

That wasn't really my point, it was more to show that NY has done a crap job containing the virus. NY should've taken the most extreme measures first but were late to act. The rest of the country was shutting things down while DeBlasio was working out at the YMCA. I should've just included NY in it's own table so I went and did that, along with the next six states and Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana.

California is handling it very well, especially considering they have several huge metros and a much worse homeless population than any other state than I can think of. Michigan is a total clusterfk, Gretchen Whitmer should be thrown into Lake Huron.

 

[eastisbest]

California is handling it very well, especially considering they have several huge metros and a much worse homeless population than any other state than I can think of. Michigan is a total clusterfk, Gretchen Whitmer should be thrown into Lake Huron.

Michigan's timeline response isn't much different from Ohio's that I can see. As a border city, it's easy to see Michigan has been more restrictive. Can't blame a governor for Detroit. How is Detroit's mess, Whitmer's fault?

 

[Sig Hansen]

Here are the top 20 states with most cases, then their rank in population. This table obviously doesn't mean as much because states aren't testing people at the same rates. But I'm bored so I did it anyway

 

[eastisbest]

Here are the top 20 states with most cases, then their rank in population. This table obviously doesn't mean as much because states aren't testing people at the same rates. But I'm bored so I did it anyway

I agree testing rate messes with the numbers but deaths are deaths. That's Detroit, by far. They have one major urban area, a few Dayton proper to Youngstown sized cities. Of their 1400 deaths, over a 1000 are accounted for by Wayne and Oakland country. Detroit. They have much more land but they are also a much more urban state, with most of it concentrated in one place. About 50% Ohios live in urban counties. 4/5 in Michigan. The I-75 corridor accounts for nearly all their deaths. Same here, along the highways with the odd exceptions of Darke and Mahoning.

I don't know this Whitmer but I haven't seen any other governor put in policies sooner or different.

 

[Sig Hansen]

I agree testing rate messes with the numbers but deaths are deaths. That's Detroit, by far. They have one major urban area, a few Dayton proper to Youngstown sized cities. Of their 1400 deaths, over a 1000 are accounted for by Wayne and Oakland country. Detroit. They have much more land but they are also a much more urban state, with most of it concentrated in one place.

I don't know this Whitmer but I haven't seen any other governor put in policies sooner or different.

You're right, after reading a bit it seems like I was being too harsh on her. It's still insane though, their infection rates are only slightly lower than Italy.

 

[Sig Hansen]

Was going to try and make a table comparing US states to foreign countries of similar size and population. Nowhere near enough testing data to do that though, and there probably never will be.

 

[eastisbest]

Eye balling the table you posted, there might be a positive correlation between death rate and number of urban centers. Michigan, Lousiana, even NY because of the relative size of NYC are primarily one dominant urban center states. It's anomalies that might be interesting. I don't think there are going to be any surprises like major differences in policy or ethnicity susceptibility.

The whole scare of this particular virus or any disease spread is predicatability. Does it follow an observable pattern or is this the one, the chaotic one that will change the darwinian game. This one I think is very predictable. It is passed in the usual ways. It's even fairly easy to kill. Wash off the fat protection layer and the protein will die.

The only correlation of importance i think will be behavioral.

I think hindsight will say it was that five day invisibility cloak that made it different and that's it.

 

[Arrogate]

Does anyone think MHC complexes have anything to do with mortality rates in certain countries? The other interesting thing I read a while ago was Vitamin D deficiency playing a role in the severity. Italy actually has less vitamin D concentration in their sunlight compared to northern europe.

 

[Arrogate]

Michigan's timeline response isn't much different from Ohio's that I can see. As a border city, it's easy to see Michigan has been more restrictive. Can't blame a governor for Detroit. How is Detroit's mess, Whitmer's fault?

Michigan is making people who board horses on off site facilities get a written letter from the ag dept to leave their home and feed their horses. Most people who board horses care for their own and just pay stall rent. Problem is the ag dept has been very slow to get back in touch with people and have been doing it by snail mail. So yeah just wait a few days or more likely a week and hope your horses have water/food magically appear

There are countless things Michigan has messed up outside of Detroit.

 

[cabezadecaballo]

And wtf is France doing? Only 60% as many cases as Italy and Spain but a much higher mortality rate than both. Jesus Christ.

posthumous testing only ?

Must not be an election year in France......

 

[eastside_purple]

Michigan is making people who board horses on off site facilities get a written letter from the ag dept to leave their home and feed their horses. Most people who board horses care for their own and just pay stall rent. Problem is the ag dept has been very slow to get back in touch with people and have been doing it by snail mail. So yeah just wait a few days or more likely a week and hope your horses have water/food magically appear

There are countless things Michigan has messed up outside of Detroit.

Just more glue for the rest of us.

 

[eastisbest]

Michigan is making people who board horses on off site facilities get a written letter from the ag dept to leave their home and feed their horses. Most people who board horses care for their own and just pay stall rent. Problem is the ag dept has been very slow to get back in touch with people and have been doing it by snail mail. So yeah just wait a few days or more likely a week and hope your horses have water/food magically appear

There are countless things Michigan has messed up outside of Detroit.

I can count to one, lol. Two if you want to include how strict they're being on the boating but they're in more desperate straites and their enforcement more strained than ours so, not judging.

 

[Arrogate]

I honestly thought Florida would get hit harder than they did. especially with all the beachea being open for so long. Hopefully those old people retired there have quarantined and the vacationers have left.

 

[Omar]

I honestly thought Florida would get hit harder than they did. especially with all the beachea being open for so long. Hopefully those old people retired there have quarantined and the vacationers have left.

Most of the people on the beaches during that time were tourists.

 

[Omar]

Imagine staking your poliical career on the worst-case models of a fake Chinese timeline (Chinese lies made to conceal their irresponsible obfuscations and lies early on), and then having to reel it all back in wihout looking stupid. Tall task.....

I don’t know what these models look like, but if China severely understated their infections and deaths, wouldn’t the model also have severely understated its estimates? Instead, it was way, way, way, way overstated. It doesn’t make sense.

 

[cabezadecaballo]

I don’t know what these models look like, but if China severely understated their infections and deaths, wouldn’t the model also have severely understated its estimates? Instead, it was way, way, way, way overstated. It doesn’t make sense.

What they did that was most damaging was to compress the timeline. They made this thing look far more deadly and virulent in doing so. They did this to obscure the fact that they made a concerted and calculated effort to conceal the disease for quite a while.

 

[Arrogate]

Most of the people on the beaches during that time were tourists.

Yes but they would still have come in contact with many locals and with the older population of florida I would have thought they would get hit harder