Central District

rjones said:
The lower end of the Bears team roared today at the UA Invitational. Among other fine swims were a 1:49 in the 200 & 2 4:56s in the 500. And those are the bottom of the team times!!! St. Charles wisely stayed on the otherside of town. But they can't duck UA in Athens. Can't wait for the Bears to devour the Cardinals in 2 weeks!!!
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Meanwhile across town the SC JV swam in a true JV meet with impressive times:and time drops
200 Medley: A-1:49.31 / B-1:50.86
200 Free: 1:52.09 dropped 4.89 seconds
200 IM: 2:33.32 dropped 4.16 seconds
50 Free: 24.82 dropped .54
Fly: 1:01.46 dropped 5.02 seconds
100 Free: 51.35 dropped 3.32 seconds
Back: 1:00.70 dropped 2.72
Breast: 1:06.47 dropped 1.94
200 Relay: A-1:37.06 / B-1:37.10

And Friday night the JV had impressive time drops too -
200 Free: 1:57.73 -6.31 seconds
200 IM: 2:03.42 -9.60 seconds
50 Free: 23.92 -.99 seconds
Fly: 1:01.84 -2.72 seconds
100 Free: 53.25 -1.83 seconds
Back: 1:02.27 -2.83
Breast: 1:02.35 -2.76

If that's an indication of the Cardinals taper they may well be feasting on Bear meat in Athens.
 
Sectionals this weekend. Psych sheets due out tonight
Here are my pre-pysch sheet predictions:
Medley: SC, Olent., Liberty
200: Weaver (Scioto), Kabelka (SC), Michael (Coffman)
IM: Brooks (WC), Beam (SC), Kibbe (UA)
50: Koethke (GC). Scott (Jerome), Ward (SC)
Diving: Dinsmore (NA), Thatcher (Liberty), Kloos (WN)
Fly: Miller (WN), Dickman (Darby), Welty (SC)
100: Miller (WN), Weaver (Scioto), Scott (Jerome)
500: Kibbe (UA), Stadler (WS), Neri (UA)
200 R: SC, Jerome, Coffman
Back: Saczawa (Liberty), Fomich (Olent.) Dickman (Darby)
Breast: Welty (SC), Willliams (MV), Sugar (SC)
400 R: SC, Olent., Jerome

Team: SC, UA, Olent., Jerome

Notes:
SC wins by at least 100 points, maybe 150. Jerome & Olentangy will battle for 3rd - may depend on the taper of lower half of their teams. Whoever steps up and scores points will finish 3rd. UA will put 4 in top 8 of the 500, but SC will score all 4 of their swimmers, so in team race not a giant pickup for UA. UA will be shut out in the 100. UA 400 relay will be on the bubble for states. Expect Welty to set new district record in 100 breast. SC will unstack their relays to qualify more swimmers to the state meet. Even unstacked they will sweep the relays. With a spectacular taper SC could score 4 in each event including diving. That's never been done before. Watch the back & IM as that's where their vulnerable.
 
Now that the psych sheets are out we can see who is swimming what. Here are the top 5 per event by the psych sheets:

Medley Relay: Olentangy, SC, UA, Darby, Davidson
200 Free: Weaver, Williams, Bernsdorf, Kabelka, Michael
200 IM: Beam, Kibbe, Reardon, Giesman, Brooks
50 Koethke, Scott, Ward, Nguyen, Kuriger
100 Fly: Miller, Dickman, Barnes, Saczawa, Norris
100 Free: Miller, Weaver, Scott, Koethke, Michael
500 Free: Neri, Stradler, Kibbe, Mickelson, Weimer
200 Free Relay: Jerome, SC, Liberty, Coffman, UA
100 Back: Fomich, Saczawa, Waldron, Dickman, Mickelson
100 Breast: Welty, Williams, Matthews, Fischer, Mayo
400 Free Relay: Olentangy, Liberty, Jerome, SC, Coffman

Scoring meet from psych sheets gives the following results:

1. SC 346
2. UA 260
3. Olentangy 191
4. Liberty 157
5. Jerome 153
 
Good predictions swimfan, although Sugar is not entered in the breaststroke and Dinsmore is not diving. I think you notes are right on, although I'm not sure that SC can score everyone. They should without much trouble move everyone through sectional. It helps to be in the fastest sectional. Interesting to see where their divers end up. Since this is the best and deepest team they've had since 2010 expect them to unstack their relays at district. They can move them to state unstacked, but I'm not sure that they can sweep the district unstacked. I know that the philosophy is to qualify as many boys to state as possible to give them the state meet experience. At least that's how they did it back when they were finishing in the top 2 every year. Not certain they can finish in the top 2 this year, but would be surprised if they aren't top 5.

Meanwhile, UA looks like they will not get everyone through sectional. To have a chance they will have to taper the bottom of the team (especially secondary swimmers in 50, 100, fly & back), so likely those boys will not drop time between sectional and district. Although their 400 free relay looks vulnerable now I expect that they will qualify it. And their relays will get faster at state as they can use some in all 3 relays as they will not have 2 individual events in the state meet. Still I'm not seeing top heat in all 3 relays. I would expect them to out score the psych sheet at district, and probably still finish in top 10 at state.

Olentangy and Jerome may well outscore UA at the state. I think 3rd place will be closer than the psych sheet score. Anyway looking forward to fast swimming beginning this weekend.
 
aquacard, your obviously over impressed with SC. Their psych sheet times will not improve markedly while the Bears will!! Here's how the UA will finish event by event

Medley - first
200 - 2, 4, 7 & 8
IM - 1, 2, 4 & 16
50 - 3 & 10
Diving - 8
Fly - 8, 9 & 11
100 - 9, 10,14
500 - 1, 2, 3 & 4
200 R - 2
Back - 2 & 3
Breast - 2, 6, 9 & 12
400R - 3

UA should score 400 points but will have at least 350. SC will not move up from the psych sheet score. Their times are rested ones from primarily the NE Classic where they suited up and rested before the meet. UA as a team will swim rested for the first time at district although there will be time improvements at the sectional. SC is lucky to have been moved from the Arlington sectional as now they will win at least one meet at the end of the year.
 
rjones said:
aquacard, your obviously over impressed with SC. Their psych sheet times will not improve markedly while the Bears will!! Here's how the UA will finish event by event

Medley - first
200 - 2, 4, 7 & 8
IM - 1, 2, 4 & 16
50 - 3 & 10
Diving - 8
Fly - 8, 9 & 11
100 - 9, 10,14
500 - 1, 2, 3 & 4
200 R - 2
Back - 2 & 3
Breast - 2, 6, 9 & 12
400R - 3

UA should score 400 points but will have at least 350. SC will not move up from the psych sheet score. Their times are rested ones from primarily the NE Classic where they suited up and rested before the meet. UA as a team will swim rested for the first time at district although there will be time improvements at the sectional. SC is lucky to have been moved from the Arlington sectional as now they will win at least one meet at the end of the year.
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Even if you are right rjones, they'd better drop ALOT of time if they want to be a factor at State. Have you seen the list of kids that are swimming the 500 from the SW this year? There are a dozen kids who are legitimate final heat swimmers at Canton... that event is going to be a bloodbath. I predict several kids are going under 4:30 this year.
 
Looks like ua lost 3 swims and sc 2 after sectionals, without relays or diving I think ua has a 25-30 point projected lead, still think sc is a favorite although maybe a smaller one then before sectionals, ua swam very well though yesterday both tapered and suited kids and those not
 
Sectional was just the warm up. Next week UA congtinues it taper and will stomp SC. You're right swimmer24 UA holds a sizable edge after sectional and that lead will continue to grow. UA will win district by at least 50. SC was fortunate they moved sectionals or they would be nursing a sectional pounding from the Bears. Go Bears!!!!
 
rjones, don't count the chickens before they hatch. UA was suited and the lower half of the team was tapered. While they may drop some more time for the most part the bottom half will get no faster. SC will get much faster. So while UA may be on top from the psych sheet they will not move up alot if at all. SC will add significant points to their total...they always do!!
 
Fly4Fun said:
Been a while since I've read these boards. Funny to see some things never change.
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I agree as neither of these teams will factor at the state meet. The real conversation should be about who will take home the runner-up trophy. It is going to be very interesting to see if it makes it back home to NW Ohio (where it rightfully belongs) or if it travels to the Northeast or Southwest.
 
Based on sectional times here is the scoring of the state meet:

1 Cincinnati St. Xavier 370
2 Strongsville 146
3 Brecksville-Broadview Heights 131
4 Hudson 118
5 Cleveland St. Ignatius 114
6 Lakota East 103
7 Mason 101
8 Cincinnati Sycamore 76
9 Wooster 69
10 Massillon Jackson 64
11 Columbus Upper Arlington 63
12 Dublin Jerome 58
13 Warren G. Harding 56
14 Dublin Scioto 52
15 Cincinnati Moeller 51
16 Cuyahoga Falls Walsh Jesuit 49
17 Centerville 42
18 Columbus St. Charles 39
18 Westerville North 39
20 Vandalia Butler 33
21 Solon 32
22 Green 31
23 Grove City 30
23 Wadsworth 30
25 Lakewood St. Edward 28
26 Middletown 26
27 Cincinnati Anderson 24
27 Trenton Edgewood 24
29 Eastlake North 23
30 Lakota West 18
31 North Canton Hoover 17
32 Avon 16
33 Little Morrow Miami 15
34 Xenia 13
35 Pickerington North 11
36 Lewis Center Olentangy 8
37 Springfield 6
37 Stow-Munroe Falls 6
39 Kings Mills Kings 5
40 New Albany 4
40 Powell Olentangy Liberty 4
40 Shaker Heights 4
40 Westerville South 4
44 Hilliard Darby 3
44 Marysville 3
46 Cincinnati Turpin 1
46 Fairfield 1
46 Mayfield 1
46 Worthington Kilbourne 1

Clearly this is not how it will end up as the relays will change the scoring significantly. For example StF & SC have the 2nd & 3rd fastest 200 Relay times yet neither scores off their sectional time. Anyway this will give some idea of who has already begun the taper and who hasn't. And as things stand now the 24th time in each event is

Medley- 1:42.16
200- 1:47.33
IM- 2:01.16
50- 22.32
Fly- 54.01
100- 48:47
500- 4:53.74
200 R- 1:31.82
Back- 54.39
Breast- 1:01.87
400 R- 3:23.47
 
buckeyedr said:
I agree as neither of these teams will factor at the state meet. The real conversation should be about who will take home the runner-up trophy. It is going to be very interesting to see if it makes it back home to NW Ohio (where it rightfully belongs) or if it travels to the Northeast or Southwest.
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I'm not certain that you are correct that Central District teams will not factor in the state meet. This year X seems well in front of everyone. Second place will not be a particularly high score. Any team that can place 3 relays in the top 5 will have a significant advantage on the race for second. Who can do that may not be known until the state prelims as it is not clear who will put their top relays together for the district. SC scores out very low in part because they have not started their taper and Gear is notorious for swimming his relays slow in the sectional. Last year SC's 200 Free Relay won the district even though they were 11th after sectional and swimming in the district from heat 2. If the runner-up trophy ends up in the NW, I don't think it will be with St. Francis. They look to be a bit thin this year. I like Hudson at this point. But I reserve the right to rethink this after the weekend.
 
thedutchman said:
I'm not certain that you are correct that Central District teams will not factor in the state meet. This year X seems well in front of everyone. Second place will not be a particularly high score. Any team that can place 3 relays in the top 5 will have a significant advantage on the race for second. Who can do that may not be known until the state prelims as it is not clear who will put their top relays together for the district. SC scores out very low in part because they have not started their taper and Gear is notorious for swimming his relays slow in the sectional. Last year SC's 200 Free Relay won the district even though they were 11th after sectional and swimming in the district from heat 2. If the runner-up trophy ends up in the NW, I don't think it will be with St. Francis. They look to be a bit thin this year. I like Hudson at this point. But I reserve the right to rethink this after the weekend.
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Slow would be an understatement. The safeness of their starts was probably about 3 seconds alonealone.
 
thedutchman said:
I'm not certain that you are correct that Central District teams will not factor in the state meet. This year X seems well in front of everyone. Second place will not be a particularly high score. Any team that can place 3 relays in the top 5 will have a significant advantage on the race for second. Who can do that may not be known until the state prelims as it is not clear who will put their top relays together for the district. SC scores out very low in part because they have not started their taper and Gear is notorious for swimming his relays slow in the sectional. Last year SC's 200 Free Relay won the district even though they were 11th after sectional and swimming in the district from heat 2. If the runner-up trophy ends up in the NW, I don't think it will be with St. Francis. They look to be a bit thin this year. I like Hudson at this point. But I reserve the right to rethink this after the weekend.
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Hudson is not in the NW district. St. Francis will show up as they always do. They do not have the numbers that they have had in the past 8 years or so, but they still have enough quality swimmers that they will compete for the runner-up spot. And, they have some young guns ready to make their mark. As you stated, it will all come down to the relays, as it always does.
 
buckeyedr said:
Hudson is not in the NW district. St. Francis will show up as they always do. They do not have the numbers that they have had in the past 8 years or so, but they still have enough quality swimmers that they will compete for the runner-up spot. And, they have some young guns ready to make their mark. As you stated, it will all come down to the relays, as it always does.
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Sorry, poor wording on my part. I meant Hudson for runner-up in state. I think StF doesn't have enough this year. But then again with X so dominant 150 points may be a runner-up score.
 
Delay of Central District meet gives the Bears an extra day to lay in the weeds before surprising the whole state with their fast swimming! Look out St. Charles the Bears will be feasting on Cardinals Sunday! Say your prayers!
 
rjones said:
Delay of Central District meet gives the Bears an extra day to lay in the weeds before surprising the whole state with their fast swimming! Look out St. Charles the Bears will be feasting on Cardinals Sunday! Say your prayers!
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SC 408, UA 288. Maybe laying low until Canton, never taunt a Christian school to "say your prayers", I guess.... nice 500 Free win for Neri, however. 50 free, 100 free and 100 back, awfully fast as well. Look at Koethke's relay split (20.18), Yikes! He could challenge the 20.01 very old state record.
 
the Central District had some good performances in the state meet. The best were senior Mason Miller of Westerville North winning the 100 fly again. Junior Cameron Thatcher from Olentangy Liberty winning the diving with a new state record. Junior Kalvin Koethke from Grove City winning the 50 with a blazing :20.20. He won by a half second in the fastest 50 in the state meet since 1992 when the legendary Joe Hudepohl set the state record.

On the team side SC led the Central District teams with a 6th place finish scoring 110 points. Contrary to rjones' prediction UA was not laying in the weed for anyone finishing 17th (a low for them in recent years) by scoring only 41 points (also a low for them). Congratulations to UA's girls who returned to the top after a 2 year absence, CSG girls who finished runner up to perennial D2 champion Hawken and Dover boys who finished 2nd in the D2 boys meet despite a DQ in breaststroke that cost them top heat points.
 
Another great state meet. Congratulations to the winners. Not to take anything away from the Central District swimmers who prevailed, but over all I thought it was a down year for the Central District. As everyone knows the SW is the dominate district in swimming. That was certainly true this year when the SW captured half of the top heat spots. I haven't compared to past years but that seem more dominant the usual. And the team scoring follows that pattern as welll. The SW went 1, 2 in the meet and had half of the top 10 scores. Clearly a big part of the SW success is the presence of X but they only account for a portion of the top swimmers from the SW. I suspect that if you removed X from the meet the SW would still capture most of the top spots. The NE seems be the second fastest with the NW & Central battling each other for 3rd fastest.
 
I think when you are comparing the various districts you need to take into account the total population of those districts. The NW is by far the smallest of the 4 districts, but yet they put out some very fast swimmers. They lack in total overall numbers of the other districts, but as they say in boxing "Pound for Pound" the NW district could be considered the best district of the 4.

Kudos to all of the swimmers who have made it to the state meet and performed in the best high school swim meet in the nation. They all should cherish this opportunity.
 
buckeyedr said:
They lack in total overall numbers of the other districts, but as they say in boxing "Pound for Pound" the NW district could be considered the best district of the 4.
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Not sure I agree. That certainly was the case before they moved the Lakewood Sectional to the Northwest. Where the Northwest's success or failure rested on the quality of the St. Francis team, that is not so true anymore. Now with the Cleveland teams competing the NW is not completely dependent on what St. Francis has for their performance at the state meet. That has also increased the population of the district. While the NW still may be the smallest, it is not by much. I suspect that a count would show the NW to have a similar population to the Central. At least in terms of swimmers and schools with swim teams.
 
UA's incoming freshmen swam very well at JOs last week end. Look out for the Bears next year as they return all their state qualifiers and will add to the team depth with at least 3 good freshmen. Follow the Bears as they travel the road to victory next season!!!!
 
Let’s look back at your other recent predictions to see what your batting average is
rjones said:
Montana, I never said that UA will win the state this year. My prediction was top 5 which has been unfairly ridiculed...and my point in the last post is that UA has a long history for developing swimmers. When Huffman was a freshman he needed to taper for the sectional meet, 2 years later he's state champ. Same with Spangler who had miserable times at the start but was a state champ before he finished. The talent is there to be developed. Again I'm not predicting a championship (at the state level) but as I said before; the Bears will surprise all the doubters in February!!!
By the way, the charity is the Stefanie Spielman Fund.
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Montana your money was always safe. Now if rjones had said top 17, well then that’s a horse of a different color.
rjones said:
aquacard, your obviously over impressed with SC. Their psych sheet times will not improve markedly while the Bears will!! Here's how the UA will finish event by event
Medley - first
200 - 2, 4, 7 & 8
IM - 1, 2, 4 & 16
50 - 3 & 10
Diving - 8
Fly - 8, 9 & 11
100 - 9, 10,14
500 - 1, 2, 3 & 4
200 R - 2
Back - 2 & 3
Breast - 2, 6, 9 & 12
400R - 3
UA should score 400 points but will have at least 350. SC will not move up from the psych sheet score. Their times are rested ones from primarily the NE Classic where they suited up and rested before the meet. UA as a team will swim rested for the first time at district although there will be time improvements at the sectional. SC is lucky to have been moved from the Arlington sectional as now they will win at least one meet at the end of the year.
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rjones do you ever tire of being wrong. Let's see - SC upped its score by nearly 100 points. UA lost about 75 points from the sectional times ...and...only with new math does 288 become at least 350. As stated by others the bottom half of UA team tapered for sectional and didn't drop time. Nearly every SC swimmer dropped time and moved up.
rjones said:
As usual you're selling the Bears short. UA did lose Trace, Newcome & Bass, but looks what's coming back. Hope SC thinks their on top for awhile. It will make UA's comeback all the better. And UA will have its strongest freshman class in a number of years joining the returners. UA will win the district AND finish top 5 in state! Count on it.
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Were you talking about this year?
rjones said:
Sectional was just the warm up. Next week UA congtinues it taper and will stomp SC. You're right swimmer24 UA holds a sizable edge after sectional and that lead will continue to grow. UA will win district by at least 50. SC was fortunate they moved sectionals or they would be nursing a sectional pounding from the Bears. Go Bears!!!!
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You were talking about the girls, perhaps. Your point about sectionals is a bit backwards…UA was fortunate, had the change not been made they would have no post season titles.
rjones said:
Delay of Central District meet gives the Bears an extra day to lay in the weeds before surprising the whole state with their fast swimming! Look out St. Charles the Bears will be feasting on Cardinals Sunday! Say your prayers!
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So…that allowed them to close to within 116 points of SC…and they surprised the whole state with 41 points & 0 finishes in the top heat.
Let’s see you’re batting .000 … that will hardly get you to the majors and unless you're pitching will drum you out of the minors
rjones said:
UA's incoming freshmen swam very well at JOs last week end. Look out for the Bears next year as they return all their state qualifiers and will add to the team depth with at least 3 good freshmen. Follow the Bears as they travel the road to victory next season!!!!
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While the Bears may have some good incoming freshmen, and they will improve next year, do you honestly think they will challenge SC in the district or the state when they have 7 of their 8 (second largest number to St. X) state qualifiers back? rjones you just don’t know when to shut up!
 
Aquacard, UA has a minimum of 3 really good (district level) freshman coming in next year. Add that to the youth returning and UA will be much stronger next year. Next year's sophomores will drop time significantly... just like last year. Look out for the Bears as they will be hungry. Their potential is there to dethrone SC!
 
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