Battle for Control of the U.S. House

EagleFan

EagleFan

Fan of Eagle
It is currently 219-213 GOP (3 vacancies, 2 R and 1 D, so 221-214 if those hold)

It's difficult to judge this before the primaries, and the ultimate performance at the Presidential level often sways some seats. Also some court-ordered redistricting has happened, and more may, and that typically favors the Democrats.

Seats I currently predict may flip GOP to Democrats:

AL-2 : redistricting appears to have shifted this district to the left.
CA-22: Valadao has won and loss this race before, and dared to go against Trump.
LA-6: another district that swings to Dems after court fight.
NY-4: D'Esposito flipped this seat in 2022, but it is still a left-leaning district.
NY-17: Lawler flipped this seat in 2022, but it is still a left-leaning district.
NY-22: Brandon Williams won by the narrowest of margins in 2022. A better candidate by Dems could flip that.
OR-5: Another seat the GOP flipped in 2022, thanks in part to the Dem incumbent losing primary. Truly a tossup.

Seats I currently predict may flip Democrat to Republican:

MI-7: Slotkin(D) is not running for re-election in this slightly right leaning district
NC-1: A tossup and fairly balanced district
NC-6: Redistricting in NC actually favored the Republicans. No incumbent running.
NC-13: Now heavy right district with a retiring Democrat incumbent.
NC-14: Now heavy right district with a retiring Democrat incumbent.
PA-7: Vulnerable, but will take some effort by presumptive GOP candidate Ryan Mackenzie (PA House Rep)
WA-3: Narrow flip by Dems in 2022. right-leaning district, but Perez(D) has the cash advantage so far.

SO there you have it, a return to 221-214 lol.
 
 
As in 2022, the GOP is likely to under perform at the polls in 2024 despite generic polling showing dissatisfaction with the economy, immigration, and crime. The GOP itself is split ideologically, and has proven unable to present a united front to Biden. What have they done to earn votes?
 
Omega said:
As in 2022, the GOP is likely to under perform at the polls in 2024 despite generic polling showing dissatisfaction with the economy, immigration, and crime. The GOP itself is split ideologically, and has proven unable to present a united front to Biden. What have they done to earn votes?
Click to expand...
Take a look around. Not being a Democrat should be a terrific way to earn votes
 
Ken Buck’s retirement messes hard with Lauren Boebert.

Boebert is trying to move from CO-03 to CO-04 due to the fact she’ll almost certainly lose the general in her current district. Buck’s early retirement forces a special election she can’t run in. This should leg up literally any candidate but Boebert in November.
 
Looking to see suburban Akron turn red, and support Col Banweg of Hudson over Amelia Sykes. Will it be enough to offset the downtown and inner ring precincts ?
 

Republicans livid as chaos threatens to cannibalize House majority​





Marjorie Taylor Greene

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene after filing a motion to vacate against Johnosn. Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images
House Republicans have skipped town for Easter recess with their base enraged, their majority in tatters — and their speaker facing the prospect of a humiliating ouster at the hands of his own MAGA allies.
Why it matters: Dysfunction doesn't even begin to cover it. The Senate's passage of a $1.2 trillion spending bill at 2 am ET — narrowly averting a government shutdown — was perhaps the least dramatic development in a historic day on Capitol Hill.
In a matter of hours:
  • The Republican-led House passed the spending bill just before noon Friday and sent it to the Senate — with more than half the House GOP conference, including many furious hardliners, voting against it.
  • Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) — one of those hardliners angry at Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) for helping push the bill — introduced a motion to vacate the chair, calling for Johnson's removal. Her move threatens to trigger the same type of vote that ended the career of his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy.
  • Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), retiring chair of the House China Select Committee, announced suddenly he'll leave Congress next month — leaving Republicans with an astonishing majority of just one seat.
  • Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), who also is retiring early, departed for the final time — but not before signing a Democratic petition to force a vote on Ukraine aid, dealing one last blow to the GOP leadership he detested.
  • House Oversight Committee chair James Comer (R-Ky.) — who helped make impeaching President Biden one of the GOP majority's top priorities — indicated his fizzling inquiry will end without a vote.
Behind the scenes: Republicans were left fuming over the early resignations of Gallagher and Buck, with some suggesting it's now within the realm of possibility for the House majority to flip to Democrats mid-Congress.
  • Just last week, Johnson had said in response to Buck's departure: "I think, I hope and believe that that's the end of the exits for now."
  • One conservative told Axios: "Coming on the heels of the speaker's cave on the [spending bills], Gallagher's abandonment of his colleagues mid-fight is a real gut punch."

  • Another Republican said: "I think it's extremely unfortunate. But this is also why you don't vote to remove the speaker of the House and create chaos."
Between the lines: Frustrated lawmakers told Axios that burnout from the historically chaotic 118th Congress — which has featured multiple speaker's races, derailed spending bills and constant infighting — is very real.
  • "Normally they're trying to talk people out of retirement," one member said. "Now we're at a point where we're trying to talk them out of leaving early."
The other side: House Democrats relished the discord on the other side of the aisle. "I'm glad to be a Democrat in Congress," one told Axios.
  • Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) noted that Gallagher timed his resignation to ensure his seat would go unfilled until November: "Another sharp rebuke to the chaos-and-cannibalism caucus of Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene."
The bottom line: Amid Friday's chaos, disgraced former Rep. George Santos announced he's leaving the Republican Party to run for Congress in New York as an independent — saying the GOP was too "embarrassing."


House Freedom Caucus kicks out another member​

Rep. Ken Buck, wearing a dark gray suit, light blue shirt and blue and pink striped tie, sitting at a committee dais.

Rep. Ken Buck. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
The right-wing House Freedom Caucus voted to oust Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) on Tuesday, just days before he's set to leave Congress, several sources confirmed to Axios.
Why it matters: It's the second time this congressional session the group has kicked out a member who diverged from them ideologically — the first being Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) last summer.
Go deeper (1 min. read)

Ken Buck’s parting gift to GOP: Signing Democrats’ Ukraine discharge petition​

Rep. Ken Buck, wearing a gray suit, light blue shirt and blue and pink striped tie, points off to the side in a congressional hearing room.

Rep. Ken Buck. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images.
Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) on Thursday dealt one final blow to House Republican leadership one day before leaving Congress by signing Democrats' foreign aid discharge petition.
Why it matters: Buck is the first Republican to sign onto that discharge petition – or any Democratic discharge petition this Congress – amid GOP concerns about surrendering the House floor to Democrats.
Go deeper (1 min. read)
Mar 21, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Biden impeachment push struggles under mounting GOP skepticism​


House Republicans are growing increasingly sour on the prospect of an impeachment vote against President Biden.
Why it matters: With the presidential election heating up, many GOP lawmakers think their most politically opportune route is to try to ding Biden politically without taking a risky, politically charged vote.
 
www.newsweek.com

Marilyn Lands achieves stunning 33-point swing for Democrats in Alabama

Democrats have scored a victory in a special election for the Alabama state House following the state supreme court's ruling on IVF.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com

Alabama dems flip a state house seat by running on IVF/Abortion. Not sure I’ve ever seen a thirty three point swing before without some type of criminal element or scandal before.

When the Alabama state Supreme Court kicked out that ruling. They did the dems a gigantic favor by expanding the reproductive rights debate beyond abortion.
 

Republicans livid as chaos threatens to cannibalize House majority​




Marjorie Taylor Greene

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene after filing a motion to vacate against Johnosn. Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

House Republicans have skipped town for Easter recess with their base enraged, their majority in tatters — and their speaker facing the prospect of a humiliating ouster at the hands of his own MAGA allies.
Why it matters: Dysfunction doesn't even begin to cover it. The Senate's passage of a $1.2 trillion spending bill at 2 am ET — narrowly averting a government shutdown — was perhaps the least dramatic development in a historic day on Capitol Hill.
In a matter of hours:
  • The Republican-led House passed the spending bill just before noon Friday and sent it to the Senate — with more than half the House GOP conference, including many furious hardliners, voting against it.
  • Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) — one of those hardliners angry at Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) for helping push the bill — introduced a motion to vacate the chair, calling for Johnson's removal. Her move threatens to trigger the same type of vote that ended the career of his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy.
  • Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), retiring chair of the House China Select Committee, announced suddenly he'll leave Congress next month — leaving Republicans with an astonishing majority of just one seat.
  • Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), who also is retiring early, departed for the final time — but not before signing a Democratic petition to force a vote on Ukraine aid, dealing one last blow to the GOP leadership he detested.
  • House Oversight Committee chair James Comer (R-Ky.) — who helped make impeaching President Biden one of the GOP majority's top priorities — indicated his fizzling inquiry will end without a vote.
Behind the scenes: Republicans were left fuming over the early resignations of Gallagher and Buck, with some suggesting it's now within the realm of possibility for the House majority to flip to Democrats mid-Congress.
  • Just last week, Johnson had said in response to Buck's departure: "I think, I hope and believe that that's the end of the exits for now."
  • One conservative told Axios: "Coming on the heels of the speaker's cave on the [spending bills], Gallagher's abandonment of his colleagues mid-fight is a real gut punch."

  • Another Republican said: "I think it's extremely unfortunate. But this is also why you don't vote to remove the speaker of the House and create chaos."
Between the lines: Frustrated lawmakers told Axios that burnout from the historically chaotic 118th Congress — which has featured multiple speaker's races, derailed spending bills and constant infighting — is very real.
  • "Normally they're trying to talk people out of retirement," one member said. "Now we're at a point where we're trying to talk them out of leaving early."
The other side: House Democrats relished the discord on the other side of the aisle. "I'm glad to be a Democrat in Congress," one told Axios.
  • Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) noted that Gallagher timed his resignation to ensure his seat would go unfilled until November: "Another sharp rebuke to the chaos-and-cannibalism caucus of Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene."
The bottom line: Amid Friday's chaos, disgraced former Rep. George Santos announced he's leaving the Republican Party to run for Congress in New York as an independent — saying the GOP was too "embarrassing."

 
Last edited:
Happier said:

Republicans livid as chaos threatens to cannibalize House majority​




Marjorie Taylor Greene

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene after filing a motion to vacate against Johnosn. Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

House Republicans have skipped town for Easter recess with their base enraged, their majority in tatters — and their speaker facing the prospect of a humiliating ouster at the hands of his own MAGA allies.
Why it matters: Dysfunction doesn't even begin to cover it. The Senate's passage of a $1.2 trillion spending bill at 2 am ET — narrowly averting a government shutdown — was perhaps the least dramatic development in a historic day on Capitol Hill.
In a matter of hours:
  • The Republican-led House passed the spending bill just before noon Friday and sent it to the Senate — with more than half the House GOP conference, including many furious hardliners, voting against it.
  • Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) — one of those hardliners angry at Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) for helping push the bill — introduced a motion to vacate the chair, calling for Johnson's removal. Her move threatens to trigger the same type of vote that ended the career of his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy.
  • Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), retiring chair of the House China Select Committee, announced suddenly he'll leave Congress next month — leaving Republicans with an astonishing majority of just one seat.
  • Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), who also is retiring early, departed for the final time — but not before signing a Democratic petition to force a vote on Ukraine aid, dealing one last blow to the GOP leadership he detested.
  • House Oversight Committee chair James Comer (R-Ky.) — who helped make impeaching President Biden one of the GOP majority's top priorities — indicated his fizzling inquiry will end without a vote.
Behind the scenes: Republicans were left fuming over the early resignations of Gallagher and Buck, with some suggesting it's now within the realm of possibility for the House majority to flip to Democrats mid-Congress.
  • Just last week, Johnson had said in response to Buck's departure: "I think, I hope and believe that that's the end of the exits for now."
  • One conservative told Axios: "Coming on the heels of the speaker's cave on the [spending bills], Gallagher's abandonment of his colleagues mid-fight is a real gut punch."

  • Another Republican said: "I think it's extremely unfortunate. But this is also why you don't vote to remove the speaker of the House and create chaos."
Between the lines: Frustrated lawmakers told Axios that burnout from the historically chaotic 118th Congress — which has featured multiple speaker's races, derailed spending bills and constant infighting — is very real.
  • "Normally they're trying to talk people out of retirement," one member said. "Now we're at a point where we're trying to talk them out of leaving early."
The other side: House Democrats relished the discord on the other side of the aisle. "I'm glad to be a Democrat in Congress," one told Axios.
  • Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) noted that Gallagher timed his resignation to ensure his seat would go unfilled until November: "Another sharp rebuke to the chaos-and-cannibalism caucus of Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene."
The bottom line: Amid Friday's chaos, disgraced former Rep. George Santos announced he's leaving the Republican Party to run for Congress in New York as an independent — saying the GOP was too "embarrassing."
Click to expand...
Please provide a link, Mr. Copy and Paste.
 
Costa said:
You want maternal health care?
Click to expand...
My plan paid all maternal healthcare 100%, before ACA.

After ACA, we had to treat maternal healthcare like everything else - with deductibles - to keep costs from rising even more.

But so-called "pro-worker" companies will happily pay for travel to an out-of-state abortion, because they break even by the time the dead kid would have been in 2nd grade. Health plans love lezzies and incels.
 
www.cbsnews.com

Could House control flip to the Democrats? Early resignations leave GOP majority on edge

"With such a tiny majority, all it would take is a tiny number of Republicans to decide ... they want to go and leave immediately," one expert said.
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com

If this possibility becomes reality, do the Dems get their immigration policy, even up to amnesty passed?

Do abortion rights get codified?

Democrats can work wonders with a majority of one. Republicans seem intent on self destruction as a means to damaging a potential second Trump presidency even before it starts.
 
GOP has proven they cannot govern and Dem policies on Abortion rights (including IVF/Birth COntrol, Immigration and other actual policies are very popular with voters.

thehill.com

Republican blame game heats up as their majority thins

Who’s to blame for the GOP’s dwindling House majority? It depends on whom you ask. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) made waves last month when she pointed fingers at a pair of fe…
thehill.com thehill.com
 
Happier said:
GOP has proven they cannot govern and Dem policies on Abortion rights (including IVF/Birth COntrol, Immigration and other actual policies are very popular with voters.

thehill.com

Republican blame game heats up as their majority thins

Who’s to blame for the GOP’s dwindling House majority? It depends on whom you ask. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) made waves last month when she pointed fingers at a pair of fe…
thehill.com thehill.com
Click to expand...
Hope this helps. LOL

www.realclearpolling.com

Presidential General Election Polls 2024 | Latest Polls | RealClearPolling

Explore up-to-date 2024 presidential general election polls. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
 
Happier said:
GOP has proven they cannot govern and Dem policies on Abortion rights (including IVF/Birth COntrol, Immigration and other actual policies are very popular with voters.

thehill.com

Republican blame game heats up as their majority thins

Who’s to blame for the GOP’s dwindling House majority? It depends on whom you ask. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) made waves last month when she pointed fingers at a pair of fe…
thehill.com thehill.com
Click to expand...
Policies that are popular with voters....Ruh Roh.

apnews.com

Why Trump's alarmist message on immigration may be resonating beyond his base

Donald Trump has ramped up anti-immigrant rhetoric and his messaging often relies on falsehoods about migration.
apnews.com apnews.com

But in a potentially worrying sign for Biden, Trump’s message appears to be resonating with key elements of the Democratic coalition that Biden will need to win over this November.

Roughly two-thirds of Americans now disapprove of how Biden is handling border security, including about 4 in 10 Democrats, 55% of Black adults and 73% of Hispanic adults, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted in March.

A recent Pew Research Center poll found that 45% of Americans described the situation as a crisis, while another 32% said it was a major problem.

Vetress Boyce, a Chicago-based racial justice activist, was among those who expressed frustration with Biden’s immigration policies and the city’s approach as it tries to shelter newly arriving migrants. She argued Democrats should be focusing on economic investment in Black communities, not newcomers.
“They’re sending us people who are starving, the same way Blacks are starving in this country. They’re sending us people who want to escape the conditions and come here for a better lifestyle when the ones here are suffering and have been suffering for over 100 years,” Boyce said. “That recipe is a mixture for disaster. It’s a disaster just waiting to happen.”

Gracie Martinez is a 52-year-old Hispanic small business owner from Eagle Pass, Texas, the border town that Trump visited in February when he and Biden made same-day trips to the state. Martinez said she once voted for former President Barack Obama and is still a Democrat, but now backs Trump — mainly because of the border.

“It’s horrible,” she said. “It’s tons and tons of people and they’re giving them medical and money, phones,” she said, complaining those who went through the legal immigration system are treated worse.
 
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