2023 Harbin Points Thread

1965 Panther said:
-Re-evaluating after each playoff week the next weeks schedule based on Harbin points instead of going by the original seedlings prior to week one. Example- a 16 seed beats a 1 seed- they do not necessarily play the 8 seed in week 2
They may have to play the 2 seed. (Stops teams from loading up just for the playoffs)
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The Harbins does not rank teams in order very well. I have always suggested that seed 1 should get pick from teams 9-16. Then seed 2 gets to pick from what is left. Seed 8 then gets what is left. From then on the brackets are set so you have an idea who you will play.
 
Elder can win out and still not get top 4. They will need help from the teams they have beaten and someone currently in top 6 to lose.
 
ElderHSfan02 said:
Elder can win out and still not get top 4. They will need help from the teams they have beaten and someone currently in top 6 to lose.
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While technically true, the L2 points Elder would receive from both Chatard and LaSalle would vault them ahead of the following in the L2 category.
St X (two 1-win opponents)
Lakota West (6-win Hamilton and 4-win Mason)
Moeller if they lose to St Edward (other game being Detroit MLK currently 4-wins)
Hamilton if they lose one of their two remaining games (Sycamore and West).

Even a combination of 9-1 Chatard and 5-5 LaSalle would garner more L2 points than 8-2 Ed's and 5-4 Detroit MLK, Moeller's two remaining opponents.

Since Elder has a smaller L2 Divisor than almost everyone in R4, that will also play to their advantage.
 
Scores of note tonight:
-LaSalle lost in OT tonight to Detroit Central Catholic.
-West only beats Mason 10-7 at home, could have been a really bad result for Elder if the Comets pulled that off.
-Sycamore stormed back from down 17-0, to take the lead over Hamilton 21-20 with 15 seconds left, only to have Hamilton run back the ensuing kickoff for a TD.

Lebanon will likely hop Elder tonight, but the rest of the teams behind them within striking distance lost. So they should be sitting 8th heading into Week 10 against LaSalle.
 
Other scores:
-Lou X rolled tonight
-Surprise of the night, 1-win Springboro beats 6-win Wayne and it wasn't close
 
This loss hurt big. That could have been a Harbin Cow.

Neumann & Goretti won. Big surprise Springboro won and helped. Louisville X also won. Life Christian lost again. So they ended up giving us .35 of our Harbin total. Moeller plays Eds tomorrow. Since we lost to both that game doesn't matter to us. Cincy X plays a bad Ignatius team tomorrow. LaSalle also lost so we lost some potential points there.

After the X and Moeller games I will try to look at all the region 4 match ups and see if I can run a bunch of what ifs to see where we go.

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So here is what I have.

First I had to predict 18 games. If I get 1 of those games wrong, this can and will mess up the numbers. Which means I probably wasted a Saturday Night. So these are the games I predicted.

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Some of these games are hard to pick. Walnut Hills plays Little Miami in the Ohio Lottery game of the week somebody has to get their first win when two 0-9 teams play. Based on scores of other games, I picked Little Miami.

The green section is what Joe Eitel has right now. The blue section adds what Joe Eitel has plus what will happen based on what I picked above.

L1 = the Level 1 points a team will receive from a win vs their schedule opponent on Friday.
L2 from week 10 = The Level 2 points a team will receive from a win vs their schedule opponent. (Basically that teams level 1 points.)
L2 from Previous wins. = These are the points a team will receive based on previous wins. For example Elder has beaten Neumann & Goretti they will get 5 L2 points. Springboro is playing Miamisburg and I predict a lose so 0. Lousville X should beat PRP so Elder gets 6.5 L2. X should beat Trinity (FL) so Elder gets 4.5 L2. 5+6.5+4.5=16 L2 points from previous wins.

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When you reorder everybody based on the new averages.

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So Elder would be the 5 seed and play the 12 seed Middletown. Then would play the winner of X Springboro.
 
Now I know you ask what happens if Elder loses to LaSalle.

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This changes the seeds.
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In this case Elder drops to the 7 seed. and host Mason in round 1. Round 2 they would head out to Princeton.
 
I'm going to predict Elder finishes 7th in R4 and will host the 10 seed which could be Lebanon, Sycamore but more likely either Mason or Oak Hills.

Elder currently sits 7th in the Harbins slightly behind Moeller. Of the top 6 teams:
-Milford should win to finish 1st
-Princeton plays Sycamore, should be favored and likely will finish 2nd either way
-St X is currently 3rd but their final opponent only has 1-win, they'll fall one spot even with a win to 4th
-Incredibly Lakota West and Hamilton have the exact same Harbin number currently, same L1 and L2 points - but both teams play one another, the winner will be 3rd and the loser likely 5th or 6th, pending some L2 games for Moeller
-Moeller will beat Detroit MLK and could finish 5th with some help or 6th without help

Those 6 plus Elder will likely be your top 7. The big games to watch for that 5/6/7 seed will be some of the GMC games, specifically Princeton-Sycamore (both West and Hamilton lost to Princeton but beat Sycamore). Moeller would also benefit more from a LaSalle win over Elder (6.5 L2s as opposed to 6.0)

Of the teams below Elder:
-Lebanon plays Winton Woods, I have them losing but if they were to win, they would hop Elder if the Panthers were to lose to LS
-Sycamore plays Princeton, I also have them losing but if they were to win, they would also hop Elder if the Panthers were to lose
-Mason and Oak Hills mathematically cannot finish higher than Elder at this point, also appears that neither of them can catch Lebanon, but Mason could tie with Syacmore
 
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Great work V&R. I didn't do any of the math and I should have paid more attention to the Max/Min features on JoeEitel. I figured, based on current numbers, that West, Hamilton and Moeller were in the clear in relation to Elder. That's the downside of the GMC 9-game schedule for West and Hamilton.

Moeller and Elder both beat St X, so that game is a wash when comparing L2s. Elder has N&G and Lou X in their corner though which could be the difference between those two. Moeller has Dwenger that's a toss up, but St Ignatius is playing Football North which won't give them any points.
 
The problem I just realized is that Mason, sycamore, and Oak Hills all have the same score. When I looked at the three of them they all went 1-1 vs the other 2. They all lost week 1. All should finish 5-5. With the GMC 9 game schedule they get no "outside" level 2 points. So OH$AA does have a way of figuring it out so this group of 3 should be considered 9, 10, 11. Which could come down to Level 3 points and/or a coin flip.
 
It's not mathematically a lock, but I will say with extreme confidence that Elder will be playing at home in round 1 of the playoffs even if they lose to Lasalle Friday. Only Lebanon and Sycamore can push Elder down to 9, however, they are both underdogs in week 10. Lebanon would have to beat Winton Woods AND Sycamore would have to beat Princeton to push Elder down to 9. One might pull off the upset, not both. Elder just needs to beat Lasalle and let the chips fall where they may.
 
In the event of a tie, this is what will happen.


7. Regional Qualifying Teams
The sixteen schools with the highest per game average of points in each region will qualify for the regional football
tournament. If a school chooses not to participate in the regional tournament, the school with the next higher per
game average will become a qualifier.
7.1 In case of a tie in any region, the point values of the tied teams shall be calculated using the third level of
competition to break the tie.
On the third level of competition:
Points are earned for each game that a defeated opponent’s defeated opponents may win (FULL VALUE)
Points are earned for each game that a defeated opponent’s defeated opponents may tie (ONE-HALF VALUE)
CASE #1: Team A and Team B after 10 games of the regular season are tied for fourth place in their region,
each with an average of 7.6500 points. By using the third level of competition for Team A and Team B, it is
determined that Team A earned, with third level points, an average of 12.3500 points and Team B earned, with
third level points, an average of 13.2785 points. Team B qualifies for the fourth place in the regional tournament,
Team A qualifies for fifth place.
CASE #2: After 10 games of the regular season Team C and Team D are tied for eighth place in their region;
each with an average of 12.4500 points. It is determined that Team C had played and defeated an out-of-state
school opponent. Third level competition points are unavailable when an out-of-state or non-member
opponent is involved, therefore the tie shall be resolved by following these steps, in the order listed:
1) The team that won in head-to-head competition.
2) If the teams did not play each other, the team with the most regular season victories will qualify.
3) If the teams have the same number of regular season victories, the team whose opponents earned the most
victories will qualify.
4) If the total victories of the opponents are equal, the team with the highest victory percentage will qualify.
5) If the teams have identical victory percentages, there will be a blind draw conducted by the Football
Administrator to determine the qualifying team
 
I don't know what happened, but I was checking out Life Christian schedule on JoeEitel and I guess they found some games. This brings them to 7 games for the year. Which means Elder L2 divisor will be 93, this is a bad thing. But after re running my reports, It isn't big enough to change the seeding.

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So above is what I have for Friday at 10:54pm.

Life Christian added some games. Because of that our divisor went from 91 to 93. IF they win tomorrow add 0.3763 to our average. ( I do not believe they will win)

Neumann & Goretti also has a game tomorrow. If NG wins add 0.5376 ( I believe this is a strong likely hood.)

So I believe Elder's final Harbin score will be 19.1527 after the NG game with a win.
 
Vincent and Regina said:
So above is what I have for Friday at 10:54pm.

Life Christian added some games. Because of that our divisor went from 91 to 93. IF they win tomorrow add 0.3763 to our average. ( I do not believe they will win)

Neumann & Goretti also has a game tomorrow. If NG wins add 0.5376 ( I believe this is a strong likely hood.)

So I believe Elder's final Harbin score will be 19.1527 after the NG game with a win.
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19.1527 would put Elder 5th according to this https://www.joeeitel.com/hsfoot/region.jsp?region=4&year=2023
 
In my projections, I had Fort Wayne Dwenger losing to Fort Wayne Wayne. Dwenger won. That gave Moeller. 5.5 more Level 2 points. That bumps Moeller to a final total of 19.5543. Which moves them to 5th in the region. Elder then falls to 6th.
 
Appears to be
#1 Milford
#2 Princeton
#3 West
#4 St X
#5 Moeller
#6 Elder
#7 Hamilton
#8 Lebanon
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Elder will play either Mason, OH, or Sycamore once they figure out how to break the 3 way tie.

Assuming the seeds hold, second round is...Elder v West, St X v Moe

Avoiding Moe and Princeton in a possible round two, is about as good as Elder can hope for.
 
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I think these teams might be tied after taking L3 points into account, too. All three of the tied teams have 5 wins (all inside the GMC) and all of them share common wins over Colerain, Fairfield, Lakota East and Middletown. So mathematically those don't really matter for determining a tie breaker because each of them get the same number of L3 points. Oak Hills' fifth win is over Sycamore, Sycamore's fifth win is over Mason and Mason's fifth win is over Oak Hills. Those games also don't distinguish anything mathematically since we already know they're tied on L1 and L2 points.

The OHSAA football tournament regulations mention this about level 3 points and tiebreakers.
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EHS 2001 said:
Right now Mason, Sycamore and Oak Hills are tied for ninth. Who's ready to calculate third level points?
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I haven't done the math on this, but Since all three of these teams lost in week 1, they get no "Outside" Level 2 points.

These are the rules for a tie.

1) The team that won in head-to-head competition.
2) If the teams did not play each other, the team with the most regular season victories will qualify.
3) If the teams have the same number of regular season victories, the team whose opponents earned the most
victories will qualify.
4) If the total victories of the opponents are equal, the team with the highest victory percentage will qualify.
5) If the teams have identical victory percentages, there will be a blind draw conducted by the Football
Administrator to determine the qualifying team


Oak Hills best Sycamore but lost to Mason
Mason beat Oaks Hills but lost to Sycamore
Sycamore beat Mason but lost to Oak Hills

1)So the first option is off the table.
2)Since they all have the same number of wins that options is off the table.


This along with the no outside points and all three going 5-5 caused the tie.

Oak Hills has wins over Colerain (0-10), Sycamore (5-5), Fairfield (3-7), Lakota (East 1-9), and Middletown (3-7)
Mason has wins over Oak Hills (5-5), Fairfield(3-7) Middletown (3-7), Colerain, (0-10), and Lakota East (1-9)
Sycamore has wins over Fairfield (3-7), Middletown (3-7), Colerain (0-10) Lakota East (1-9), and Mason (5-5)

3) Option 3 is off the table.

Because they all went 1-1 vs each other and they all beat the same teams ( Fairfield, Middletown, Colerain and Lakota East) their level 3 points should also be tied.

4 Option 4 appears off the table.

Mason, Sycamore, and Oak Hills will probably have a blind draw to see who wins.
 
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