2022 CFP Projections

[14Red]

Oregon was 6th. They were two spots removed from the top 4. They needed to win out, which didn't happen but they were a TCU loss and the Ohio St/Michigan game not being a classic from being #4.

Clemson has literally made the Playoff three times with 1-ACC loss on their schedule. Do you even look things up before you post?

NO way Ohio State Michigan winner is not getting in the top 4 over a one loss team.

 

[14Red]

There's already dwindling interest in the playoff because the same 5-6 schools have effectively monopolized access to the 4 team playoff barring falling flat on their faces. By far the best ratings were with the inaugural season of the playoff.

Interest will increase with expansion as more teams have meaningful late season games.

So your trading meaningful last two weeks for the previous 10 weeks before?

Also understand that pretty much teams 6-12 HAVE NO CHANCE to win it all. It's just fodder for more quarterfinal games. So what's the point other than money?

 

[nutsnbolts]

NO way Ohio State Michigan winner is not getting in the top 4 over a one loss team.

I don’t think that’s what he stated. I think what he stated is that if the OSU tsun game ends up 3 points or less it might be possible for them both to get in Over a 1-loss Oregon. Makes little difference now.
Frankly, I don’t think two teams from the same conference should ever get in. If you don’t win your conference championship, you’re out. Period!
Even though I’m a Buckeye fan I didn’t think they should have made it instead of PSU, since PSU was the conference champion.

 

[nutsnbolts]

So your trading meaningful last two weeks for the previous 10 weeks before?

Also understand that pretty much teams 6-12 HAVE NO CHANCE to win it all. It's just fodder for more quarterfinal games. So what's the point other than money?

BS. Any time two fairly even teams step onto the field there‘s always a chance. And most years there’s not a huge difference in the top 12.

 

[nwwarrior09]

So your trading meaningful last two weeks for the previous 10 weeks before?

Also understand that pretty much teams 6-12 HAVE NO CHANCE to win it all. It's just fodder for more quarterfinal games. So what's the point other than money?

The playoff exists to make money. The "casual" fan is increasingly tired of watching Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma every year.

More games = more money. 1-2 teams get hot or get lucky and get to a semifinal as a lower seeded/underdog team and the ratings will increase.

 

[AEW Champion]

So your trading meaningful last two weeks for the previous 10 weeks before?

Also understand that pretty much teams 6-12 HAVE NO CHANCE to win it all. It's just fodder for more quarterfinal games. So what's the point other than money?

Alabama is in that range this year. You don’t think there’s any way that team could sharpen up and make a run to a championship?

USC and Utah are two other teams in that range who could cause a lot of trouble for better-seeded teams.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[Orin Swift]

Clemson has literally made the Playoff three times with 1-ACC loss on their schedule. Do you even look things up before you post?

Not to mention he said Alabama lost to Tennessee and Georgia. They lost to Tennessee and LSU. How Alabama losing to the #5 and #6 ranked teams in the country makes Bama the 2nd/3rd best team in the country when it’s all said in down is beyond me though. Does that mean FSU is #4?

 

[Orin Swift]

So your trading meaningful last two weeks for the previous 10 weeks before?

Also understand that pretty much teams 6-12 HAVE NO CHANCE to win it all. It's just fodder for more quarterfinal games. So what's the point other than money?

In a matter of minutes you went from saying #9 Alabama might best the 2nd/3rd best team to claiming they have NO CHANCE to win it all. Do you even believe anything you are arguing or are you just really, really bored?

 

[adselder09]

NO way Ohio State Michigan winner is not getting in the top 4 over a one loss team.

I didn't say the winner, I meant the loser. Thought that would have been obvious. So you'd have had:
#1 Georgia
#2 Ohio St/Michigan
#3 Tennessee
#4 Oregon

Oregon wins out.
TCU loses once.
Ohio St/Michigan winner, beats the other decisively.

Would not have taken much at all to get Oregon in.

 

[adselder09]

So your trading meaningful last two weeks for the previous 10 weeks before?

Also understand that pretty much teams 6-12 HAVE NO CHANCE to win it all. It's just fodder for more quarterfinal games. So what's the point other than money?

Everyone said the same thing about the 4-team playoff. Guess what, the very first year #4 Ohio State won.

 

[14Red]

Everyone said the same thing about the 4-team playoff. Guess what, the very first year #4 Ohio State won.

Only Buckeye fans believe that. They were as good as anyone by season's end.

 

[14Red]

Everyone said the same thing about the 4-team playoff. Guess what, the very first year #4 Ohio State won.

And again, that's FOUR teams, not 8 or 10 or 12.

 

[adselder09]

Only Buckeye fans believe that. They were as good as anyone by season's end.

What? You claim that teams 6-12 won't have any chance to actually win the CFP. Yet when brought actual evidence where people said the same thing when they went from the +1 model to the CFP of 4, where in the very 1st season the 4th seeded team won the whole thing - your response is, well they were better than the #4 seed? Lol. Ok.

 

[adselder09]

And again, that's FOUR teams, not 8 or 10 or 12.

But people said the same thing. "We don't need to expand, the 4th team can't win anyways." And then in the very first Playoff, it happened. I'm not even an Ohio State fan. I'm not saying this to beat the Buckeye drum, I didn't think they should have been in the Playoff that year over TCU or Baylor. But then look what happened.

 

[fleadog101]

I honestly think USC or LSU more likely USC.. My top 4 in 3 weeks and I think that this is how the committee will do this 1. Ohio State / Michigan winner 2. Georga 3. TCU 4. USC providing that TCU and USC win out.

 

[adselder09]

I honestly think USC or LSU more likely USC.. My top 4 in 3 weeks and I think that this is how the committee will do this 1. Ohio State / Michigan winner 2. Georga 3. TCU 4. USC providing that TCU and USC win out.

Not sure how the OSU/Michigan winner ends up jumping Georgia, assuming GA wins the SEC. LSU should be a top 10 team when they meet in Atlanta. And the OSU/Michigan winner will be playing a likely unranked B1G West team.

I think TCU's biggest remaining hurdle is this weekend at Baylor. Iowa St always plays teams tough, but they're in last place in the Big 12. Then the Big 12 title game is at Jerry World in TCU's backyard.

I don't think USC goes unscathed the rest of the way. Three ranked matchups to end the season, it just feels like they'll lose at least one. But if they do run the table they would have a pretty solid resume and definitely would win a "what have you done for me lately" argument against Tennessee.

 

[nutsnbolts]

The predictive rankings are interesting.
Georgia with a 86% chance to win the SEC.
Ohio State with a 73% chance to win the Big Ten.
Clemson a 71.2% chance to win the ACC.
Then it gets interesting.
In the Big 12
TCU 45.1% chance to win and Kansas State a 44% chance to win.
In the PAC 12
USC 31.7% chance to win, Utah 34.4% chance to win, and Oregon a 22.5% chance to win.

I agree TCU or USC must win out to have any consideration.
If they both stumble it opens up a lot of possibilities. Will there be chaos in the final week and the conference championships?

 

[Gh0st]

Texas’s four losses are by a combined 18 points, including a one-point loss to Alabama and 7-point loss to TCU. They absolutely are a Top 25 team.

Arkansas beat the American’s Cincinnati head to head and two of its losses are games that would have been totally different had KJ Jefferson played. I consider them a Top 25 team.

Of the three American teams in the Top 25, they’ve combined for a total of one relevant win: Tulane’s early-season 7-point win at K-State.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

Arkansas has no business in the top 25. You know it, I know it, Arkansas knows it, and Liberty knows it.

 

[14Red]

Isn't it funny how this always has a way of working itself out. You'll have USC move up to #5, and they'll replace the OSU/ MI loser in the top 4.

 

[irish_buffalo]

Isn't it funny how this always has a way of working itself out. You'll have USC move up to #5, and they'll replace the OSU/ MI loser in the top 4.

Every year fans and pundits alike talk about the need for expansion but at the end of the day the 4 team playoff works.

USC needs to win the PAC-12 Championship. TCU needs to win the B12 title. LSU needs to defeat GA.

As of right now the only safe bets in my opinion are OSU/UM winner and GA.

 

[AEW Champion]

Arkansas has no business in the top 25. You know it, I know it, Arkansas knows it, and Liberty knows it.

Arkansas is 100% a Top 25 team and they showed why last night.

Meanwhile, American leader UCF just lost at home to Navy and has zero relevant wins on its resume.

This isn’t difficult unless you’re a huge SEC hater. You probably hate ham and bacon.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[AEW Champion]

Every year fans and pundits alike talk about the need for expansion but at the end of the day the 4 team playoff works.

USC needs to win the PAC-12 Championship. TCU needs to win the B12 title. LSU needs to defeat GA.

As of right now the only safe bets in my opinion are OSU/UM winner and GA.

USC is probably done once they lose to Notre Dame.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[AEW Champion]

I started off this thread several weeks ago projecting Notre Dame at #4, and as each week goes by, I get more and more convinced that they indeed should be in the mix for the #4 spot.

Outside of Georgia, I don’t see a team in the country that Notre Dame can’t beat right now. It took some growing pains, but they’re here now. And here to stay, for that matter.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[AEW Champion]

Here are my projections for how the CFP will wind up:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Alabama
4. Clemson

5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. USC
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. K-State
11. Tennessee

I have Michigan beating Ohio State, Notre Dame beating USC, USC winning the Pac 12 title, Clemson winning the ACC title, Georgia beating LSU, and K-State beating TCU for the Big 12 title. Tennessee gets downgraded for last night and since Hooker clearly is out for the season.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[adselder09]

Arkansas is 100% a Top 25 team and they showed why last night.

Meanwhile, American leader UCF just lost at home to Navy and has zero relevant wins on its resume.

This isn’t difficult unless you’re a huge SEC hater. You probably hate ham and bacon.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

No, 5-loss Arkansas is not a Top 25 team. That result says more about Ole Miss than it does Arkansas. Also may be a sign the Kiffin to Auburn rumors may be true afterall.

UCF has wins over ranked Tulane and ranked Cincinnati. Tulane has a win over 2nd Place in the Big 12, Kansas St. The really is no debate here, the American is the best conference of the G5 year in and year out. Some years they're closer to the P5 than the rest of the G5, though the past few years that hasn't been the case.

 

[adselder09]

I started off this thread several weeks ago projecting Notre Dame at #4, and as each week goes by, I get more and more convinced that they indeed should be in the mix for the #4 spot.

Outside of Georgia, I don’t see a team in the country that Notre Dame can’t beat right now. It took some growing pains, but they’re here now. And here to stay, for that matter.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

Will be lucky if they make it into the Top 12 in all honesty.

 

[adselder09]

Isn't it funny how this always has a way of working itself out. You'll have USC move up to #5, and they'll replace the OSU/ MI loser in the top 4.

I agree with this. We're really down to just a few scenarios:

Georgia, TCU and USC all win out
#1 Georgia
#2 OSU/Michigan Winner
#3 USC
#4 TCU

Georgia, TCU and Clemson win out
#1 Georgia
#2 OSU/Michigan Winner
#3 TCU
#4 OSU/Michigan Loser OR Clemson

Georgia, USC and Clemson win out
#1 Georgia
#2 OSU/Michigan Winner
#3 USC
#4 OSU/Michigan Loser Or Clemson

LSU and TCU win out
#1 OSU/Michigan Winner
#2 TCU
#3 Georgia
#4 LSU

LSU and USC win out
#1 OSU/Michigan Winner
#2 USC
#3 Georgia
#4 LSU

The only scenario with any actual debate would be - LSU, TCU and USC all win out
#1 OSU/Michigan Winner
#2 TCU
#3 USC
#4 Georgia/LSU - would have to go LSU I'd imagine

I think if the OSU/Michigan game ends in a blowout then the loser is obviously out and will open up the door for 1-loss Clemson who takes advantage of the carnage in front of them and sneaks in.

If the OSU/Michigan game is a classic, final minute TD or final minute FG to win, then I think they would still have a better chance based on eye test than Clemson.

 

[Gh0st]

Arkansas is 100% a Top 25 team and they showed why last night.

Meanwhile, American leader UCF just lost at home to Navy and has zero relevant wins on its resume.

This isn’t difficult unless you’re a huge SEC hater. You probably hate ham and bacon.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

Arkansas has 5 losses, two of which are bad losses. They are not a top 25 team.

 

[Gh0st]

I started off this thread several weeks ago projecting Notre Dame at #4, and as each week goes by, I get more and more convinced that they indeed should be in the mix for the #4 spot.

Outside of Georgia, I don’t see a team in the country that Notre Dame can’t beat right now. It took some growing pains, but they’re here now. And here to stay, for that matter.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

You are more and more convinced…?

That’s because you’re biased.

 

[AEW Champion]

You are more and more convinced…?

That’s because you’re biased.

If USC and Clemson are both seen as legit playoff contenders and Notre Dame takes care of both of them, what other possible conclusion could be drawn except to admit that Notre Dame merits playoff consideration?

The committee is charged with finding the four BEST teams. Any reasonable-minded person wants the four teams playing the best football in November and December, who are capable of beating the opponents they’ll face in the playoff.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …