Northwest Ohio Realignment

CCHS93 said:
From a pure numbers standpoint, Waite, Woodward, and Scott could all merge into one school.

NW Ohio population has stagnated. The Toledo MSA population is virtually the same today as in 1970. But the people have moved south and west and have gotten older. The median age in the Toledo MSA is currently 39. In Ohio in 1970, it was 27 (I couldn't find Toledo's quickly).

The number of current schools is based on the populations of yesteryear and do not reflect current trends. The number of babies born in 1969 dropped 20% from just 12 years earlier (182,839 from 229,792). The number of babies born in Ohio in 2021 was 129,791.

Metro Toledo needs to work on attracting new residents and those current residents need to start having babies, quickly.

As for schools, it will be agonizing for any school to close. No school will want to be the first to go. Thus all will fight tooth and nail to stay open.

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en.wikipedia.org

Toledo metropolitan area - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Census profile: Toledo, OH Metro Area

Census data for Toledo, OH Metro Area (pop. 640,384), including age, race, sex, income, poverty, marital status, education and more.
censusreporter.org censusreporter.org
www.marchofdimes.org

Fertility rate: Ohio, 2012-2022

Sustained low birth rates may indicate that the population is aging; sustained high birth rates may predict a younger population. Birth rate data and trends can tell a story.
www.marchofdimes.org www.marchofdimes.org
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I mentioned before that Columbus City Schools are exploring consolidation and are therefore ahead of the game. CBus Metro is growing but CPS is not (whole other topic).

TPS will not explore this until they are absolutely forced to do so.
 
irish_buffalo said:
I mentioned before that Columbus City Schools are exploring consolidation and are therefore ahead of the game. CBus Metro is growing but CPS is not (whole other topic).

TPS will not explore this until they are absolutely forced to do so.
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CCS is a complete mess. The last time around the renovated or built new buildings and some of those have under 50% occupancy. Complete waste of money. I'd never trust this district with my $$.
 
Bitter Pine Sitter said:
Why has that happened in Maumee? Thats a massive drop. Its always been landlocked, so that isn't a new development. The housing stock *appears* to be ample and competitive w Pburg and AW, however, there haven't been many new housing starts in the district. I suppose thats a contributing factor. Ive always held Maumee as a city in high regard (current traffic nightmares aside). They have good facilities, its safe, offers plenty of employment opportunities. Has Maumee's population just gotten old?
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One of the most demographically cyclic communities in Ohio.

Full of young family homes (1,500-2,000SF with 3-4 bedrooms), a good school district so you don't have the typical community flight, property value growth tends to lag general market averages and taxes aren't insane so there is no incentive to leave. I've got more than a few friends from Maumee whose parents are still living in the same houses in their 70s because there wasn't really a reason or financial incentive to leave as downsizing into villa communities would actually cost them money instead of saving anything. Add in the fact that there also isn't a single "middle class" lot remaining to build on in Maumee, and you have a recipe for a community that doesn't really "recharge" in population until a generation dies off. As far as being "landlocked", you're half right...in the 90s, there were a TON of houses being put up in Maumee near Fairfield and across from Rolf Park as well, that has closed up and there is absolutely no space left.

You have 15-20 years from peak to trough and another 15-20 from trough to peak when it comes to enrollment. My guess is you won't see graduating classes back in the mid to upper 200s until the early-to-mid 2030s.
 
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CCHS93 said:
From a pure numbers standpoint, Waite, Woodward, and Scott could all merge into one school.
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There have been more than a few conversations regarding merging Woodward and Scott and using Woodward as a 3-7 magnet program for TPS at the district level from what I've been told...but there are a lot of community leaders who say that would be a terrible idea due to conflicts that may arise from merging those two areas due to conflicts between certain community "organizations" if you get my drift.
 
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irish_buffalo said:
I mentioned before that Columbus City Schools are exploring consolidation and are therefore ahead of the game. CBus Metro is growing but CPS is not (whole other topic).

TPS will not explore this until they are absolutely forced to do so.
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ToledoGuy said:
There have been more than a few conversations regarding merging Woodward and Scott and using Woodward as a 3-7 magnet program for TPS at the district level from what I've been told...but there are a lot of community leaders who say that would be a terrible idea due to conflicts that may arise from merging those two areas due to conflicts between certain community "organizations" if you get my drift.
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I'm assuming Scott and Waite are probably untouchable. Is that accurate? Start and Bowsher in my mind are safe. Always felt that after Libbey went down that Woodward was probably the most vulnerable. Rogers?
 
Woodmore did interviews 2 weeks ago with 3 coaching candidates. They made the offer last week and I heard today that #1 is turning it down. I also heard that Lakota is probably move up their asst coach to Head Man.
 
scbuckeye99 said:
I'm assuming Scott and Waite are probably untouchable. Is that accurate? Start and Bowsher in my mind are safe. Always felt that after Libbey went down that Woodward was probably the most vulnerable. Rogers?
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Yes...Waite and Scott won't get dropped. It took away a lot of goodwill to roll Libbey. I believe one, potentially both, have historic building status, and Waite especially would make no sense to get rid of, as the entirety of East Toledo wouldn't have a secondary school within 5 miles at that point.
 
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Same amount of schools as I pulled from Toledo area. Toledo area down 10% and Columbus up 12%.

I wanted to use the two Pickerington and three Hilliard high schools but they do not have their 2024 numbers updated yet.
 
ToledoGuy said:
If you have a 60,000 student University that the state legislature force feeds funds, your population is always going to be growing lol.
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Yeah, last time I looked the state was sending 2-3 times as much money per Ohio undergraduate student to OSU than to any other university.
 
ToledoGuy said:
If you have a 60,000 student University that the state legislature force feeds funds, your population is always going to be growing lol.
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Cincy metro area is booming as well (150 k improvement since 2010), yes having a major university in your area helps no doubt but it has more to do with businesses wanting to associate with that university than the school's actual enrollment.
 
irish_buffalo said:
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Same amount of schools as I pulled from Toledo area. Toledo area down 10% and Columbus up 12%.

I wanted to use the two Pickerington and three Hilliard high schools but they do not have their 2024 numbers updated yet.
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I would expect Cleveland area pop. (decline) to be similar to Toledo, SW - Central Ohio is booming rest of the state pop. is declining for the most part.
 
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Stirred not Shaken said:
Cincy metro area is booming as well (150 k improvement since 2010), yes having a major university in your area helps no doubt but it has more to do with businesses wanting to associate with that university than the school's actual enrollment.
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Cincinnati's enrollment has grown by nearly 20,000 since 2004. There's more than enough evidence that proves that population growth in non-immigration states is almost exclusively driven by University enrollments.

The major businesses housed in Cincinnati (Macy's, Kroger, P&G, GE Aviation, Cintas, etc.) have been there forever. The difference is that you have significant growth in young people coming to cities, staying, and planting roots. It's no wonder why Cleveland/NEO and Toledo/NWO have been in population decline, as the same happens in inverse. We are losing more 18-22 year olds each and every year to SW and Central Ohio...and they're staying there once they're done. Additionally, the Universities in Northern Ohio do a piss-poor job at recruiting out of state students, due in no small part to their lack of any national brand recognition which is traditionally driven by sports.
 
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ToledoGuy said:
Cincinnati's enrollment has grown by nearly 20,000 since 2004. There's more than enough evidence that proves that population growth in non-immigration states is almost exclusively driven by University enrollments.

The major businesses housed in Cincinnati (Macy's, Kroger, P&G, GE Aviation, Cintas, etc.) have been there forever. The difference is that you have significant growth in young people coming to cities, staying, and planting roots. It's no wonder why Cleveland/NEO and Toledo/NWO have been in population decline, as the same happens in inverse. We are closing more 18-22 year olds each and every year to SW and Central Ohio...and they're staying there once they're done. Additionally, the Universities in Northern Ohio do a piss-poor job at recruiting put of state students, due in no small part to their lack of any national brand recognition which is traditionally driven by sports.
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Spot on.

The Blade did a high level look at this very thing roughly 10 years ago. They pointed out the differences between Toledo and Pittsburgh and how Pittsburgh was able to weather economic storms and reinvent itself with the main driver being their robust local post secondary education. Pittsburgh has Pitt, Carnegie-Mellon, Duquesne, and Robert Morris (and many others in the area - Slippery Rock, Clarion, Indiana U.). Pittsburgh also has multiple Fortune 500 companies like US Steel, Sporting Goods, PNC Bank, Wesco, PPG, Alcoa, Westinghouse and more.

When Toledo is able to attract engineering students they usually have to leave the area after graduation whereas other metro centers provide local options.

We all know that Toledo has been on a steady decline since about 1970 but it has been exacerbated over the last 20-30 years. When local schools such as Eastwood, Genoa, Lake, Rossford, which through natural progression should be growing, experience double digit percentage student decline in a 10 year period, it should raise a flashing sign of eminent concern to area officials.

Toledo has not had a wave of immigrants since the last Hungarians came here in the 1950s. Since the city has always relied on industry as its economic base, city and county officials should be wining and dining everyone and anyone to come here to build their factories, especially as we onshore industry. Team with TPS and local districts to serve those industries. Offer up cheap land (we have plenty) and then bring in immigrants from the Southern border or beyond and offer them next to free housing (we have plenty). Stopping the decline will take some really bold outside the box thinking.

Ok, back to football and Northwest Ohio Realignment. ;)
 
irish_buffalo said:
Spot on.

The Blade did a high level look at this very thing roughly 10 years ago. They pointed out the differences between Toledo and Pittsburgh and how Pittsburgh was able to weather economic storms and reinvent itself with the main driver being their robust local post secondary education. Pittsburgh has Pitt, Carnegie-Mellon, Duquesne, and Robert Morris (and many others in the area - Slippery Rock, Clarion, Indiana U.). Pittsburgh also has multiple Fortune 500 companies like US Steel, Sporting Goods, PNC Bank, Wesco, PPG, Alcoa, Westinghouse and more.

When Toledo is able to attract engineering students they usually have to leave the area after graduation whereas other metro centers provide local options.

We all know that Toledo has been on a steady decline since about 1970 but it has been exacerbated over the last 20-30 years. When local schools such as Eastwood, Genoa, Lake, Rossford, which through natural progression should be growing, experience double digit percentage student decline in a 10 year period, it should raise a flashing sign of eminent concern to area officials.

Toledo has not had a wave of immigrants since the last Hungarians came here in the 1950s. Since the city has always relied on industry as its economic base, city and county officials should be wining and dining everyone and anyone to come here to build their factories, especially as we onshore industry. Team with TPS and local districts to serve those industries. Offer up cheap land (we have plenty) and then bring in immigrants from the Southern border or beyond and offer them next to free housing (we have plenty). Stopping the decline will take some really bold outside the box thinking.

Ok, back to football and Northwest Ohio Realignment. ;)
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This is remarkably on topic for the off season lol.

To add to this, companies aren't really the problem. For a metro our size we actually have far more F500 companies (5 with a 6th potentially on the way) than you'd expect. It's very rare to have around one F500 for every 100,000 people in a metro.
 
irish_buffalo said:
Spot on.

The Blade did a high level look at this very thing roughly 10 years ago. They pointed out the differences between Toledo and Pittsburgh and how Pittsburgh was able to weather economic storms and reinvent itself with the main driver being their robust local post secondary education. Pittsburgh has Pitt, Carnegie-Mellon, Duquesne, and Robert Morris (and many others in the area - Slippery Rock, Clarion, Indiana U.). Pittsburgh also has multiple Fortune 500 companies like US Steel, Sporting Goods, PNC Bank, Wesco, PPG, Alcoa, Westinghouse and more.

When Toledo is able to attract engineering students they usually have to leave the area after graduation whereas other metro centers provide local options.

We all know that Toledo has been on a steady decline since about 1970 but it has been exacerbated over the last 20-30 years. When local schools such as Eastwood, Genoa, Lake, Rossford, which through natural progression should be growing, experience double digit percentage student decline in a 10 year period, it should raise a flashing sign of eminent concern to area officials.

Toledo has not had a wave of immigrants since the last Hungarians came here in the 1950s. Since the city has always relied on industry as its economic base, city and county officials should be wining and dining everyone and anyone to come here to build their factories, especially as we onshore industry. Team with TPS and local districts to serve those industries. Offer up cheap land (we have plenty) and then bring in immigrants from the Southern border or beyond and offer them next to free housing (we have plenty). Stopping the decline will take some really bold outside the box thinking.

Ok, back to football and Northwest Ohio Realignment. ;)
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The Pittsburgh metro is shrinking at a rate of about 1% per year, similar to Toledo. As normal, the Blade is just spewing BS.
 
dhsdog06 said:
The Pittsburgh metro is shrinking at a rate of about 1% per year, similar to Toledo. As normal, the Blade is just spewing BS.
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The article I was referring had to do with education options and Pittsburgh's ability reinvent itself so to speak. Population was not mentioned but it came to mind as relevant to what ToledoGuy had brought up.
 
ToledoGuy said:
This is remarkably on topic for the off season lol.

To add to this, companies aren't really the problem. For a metro our size we actually have far more F500 companies (5 with a 6th potentially on the way) than you'd expect. It's very rare to have around one F500 for every 100,000 people in a metro.
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I can think of Owens Illinois, Owens Corning, Dana, Andersons, and...Marathon? Findlay based but Toledo metro?

The 6th First Solar?
 
irish_buffalo said:
I can think of Owens Illinois, Owens Corning, Dana, Andersons, and...Marathon? Findlay based but Toledo metro?

The 6th First Solar?
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Welltower...they were 538 last year and just increased their Market Capitalization by 41% this past year, so they're absolutely going to be in the next one. Marathon may drop out depending on how much the Speedway portfolio sale affected their overall value.
 
ToledoGuy said:
Welltower...they were 538 last year and just increased their Market Capitalization by 41% this past year, so they're absolutely going to be in the next one. Marathon may drop out depending on how much the Speedway portfolio sale affected their overall value.
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Dana, Andersons, OI, OC are the 4. Welltower is close.

Promedica was at $6.9B before Covid, which would have been equivalent to Fortune 400 or so. They are $3B now, which is probably equivalent to about 800 or so on the Fortune 1000.

First Solar is techically headquarted in Tempe, AZ. It has about 30 or so employees there and thousands in Perrysburg.

Marathon is, by far, the largest company in NW Ohio. It is bigger than all of the other publically traded companies in the area combined.

Toledo MSA does have a few other strong companies. Libbey is around $800m. I believe Yark Auto is in the same ballpark. Pilkington NSG's North American HQ is about that size.
 
CCHS93 said:
Dana, Andersons, OI, OC are the 4. Welltower is close.

Promedica was at $6.9B before Covid, which would have been equivalent to Fortune 400 or so. They are $3B now, which is probably equivalent to about 800 or so on the Fortune 1000.

First Solar is techically headquarted in Tempe, AZ. It has about 30 or so employees there and thousands in Perrysburg.

Marathon is, by far, the largest company in NW Ohio. It is bigger than all of the other publically traded companies in the area combined.

Toledo MSA does have a few other strong companies. Libbey is around $800m. I believe Yark Auto is in the same ballpark. Pilkington NSG's North American HQ is about that size.
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You're right, I was reading completely different revenue numbers for Marathon. Knew they were huge, but didn't realize their revenue numbers were THAT big. I guess Oil still pays lol.
 
ToledoGuy said:
You're right, I was reading completely different revenue numbers for Marathon. Knew they were huge, but didn't realize their revenue numbers were THAT big. I guess Oil still pays lol.
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The refining side of Marathon has increased massively over the last decade. More than enough expansion to make up for the loss of Speedway. And if I'm thinking correctly, Marathon still supplies 100% of the fuel to all Speedway stores, they really just sold off the retail interest.
 
scbuckeye99 said:
Toledo's population pyramid is probably not much different than the rest of NW Ohio nor NE Ohio. As I mentioned to people down here in the Carolina's (huge influx of Ohioans down here over the last 20-30 years and adding). Columbus and Cincinnati are the only growing urban and metro areas in the state. And that's most likely due to migration and not the birth rate.

When I graduated from UT in 2003 my options were to sub for 2 years and maybe something would open up in TPS, Maumee, Sylvania, Oregon, etc.... OR I could get a teaching job in the Carolina's over the phone. Rather than role the dice on waiting I took my chances on South Carolina. Charleston, SC might as well be Ohio Junior at this point.
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Exactly. I regularly visit places like Greenville, Charlotte & Charleston for work and it's something to see the absolute bonanza going on down there. Folks are moving in droves down from northern states to these places and why not? I know this area tends to be heavily industrial so most do not have this luxury, but if the wife and kids wanted to go to Charlotte tomorrow it'd be no problem with my job. The fact is most white collar jobs now can be done 100% remote, and it's giving young families full mobility to pick where they'd like to live.

To give you guys an idea of the growth in Charleston, SC (same size as Dayton) is about 14,000 a year. That means they are growing by 1 Maumee, Ohio per year. School consolidation is going to absolutely dominate the discussion in the coming years as young adults continue to move to the Sun Belt. The fact that a district like Northwood was built a new school instead of being absorbed into Lake or Clay is insane. You cannot make a good argument for that district to exist outside of convenience.
 
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