2023 Harbin Points Thread

Bad night for the Harbins. Neumann & Goretti play tomorrow vs Cardinal O'Hara. Back in 2006 Colerain played Cardinal O'Hara in the Kirk "I don't pay my bills" Herbstreit Challenge. Colerain beat them 28-0. O'Hara is 3-2 vs a 3-1 NG. Hopefully NG can pull it out.

Springboro got beat by Springfield 28-9

The lone bright spot of the evening was Louisville X beating Ryle 55-35

Cincy X lost to Trinity 17-3

I spent the better part of an hour looking for the score between Life Christian and Mt Zion Preps. Life Christian lost 40-12.

Chatard keeps on win and are now 7-0 with a 41-0 win over Andrean This game is looking harder each week.

LaSalle lost to Cathedral 39-26.

With Elder losing and only Louisville X winning This was a real bad night for Harbins. Hopefully NG an pull of a win tomorrow. I don't remember the last time 3 GCL schools lost on the same night.

I will update this tomorrow if NG wins. If they lose it will be the same number. Hopefully JoeEitel comes out with his Playoff projections this week. But with Colerain and Walnut Hills still winless, Elder should be a lock for the playoffs with 4 wins and one of them coming from Louisville X.

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Honestly, I don't know if the harbins mean a whole lot at this point other than finishing in the top 8 and getting a first-round home game.

Elder can beat anyone in the region at home or on the road if they are playing their game. I don't think anyone is outstanding in the region this yr.

Moe, X, Milford, Lw, princeton. I wouldnt think any of them would want to meet Elder in a one game playoff if Elder is healthy.
 
St.X fan2 said:
What is Elder's record now? Are they 4-3? Who is left on their schedule besides LaSalle?
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A cupcake, Chatard and LaSalle. Elder is totally banged up everywhere. I hope they don’t play anyone who is injured until the playoffs. Chatard away is probably a loss. LaSalle will be another physical game. Not worth playing anyone less than 100%.
 
1965 Panther said:
A cupcake, Chatard and LaSalle. Elder is totally banged up everywhere. I hope they don’t play anyone who is injured until the playoffs. Chatard away is probably a loss. LaSalle will be another physical game. Not worth playing anyone less than 100%.
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Yeah, Chatard beat Cathedral and after watching that team last night, I can’t believe anybody beat them. That will be a tough one for Elder.
 
Joe Eitel has a useful max/min win out. It shows Elder can still get a top 4 seed if they win out. That needs to be the focus of the team right now. A top 4 seed means two home playoff games. They will obviously need some help from the opponents they have/will beat for that to happen.
 
So this week's Harbin totals are in. Good news Neumann & Goretti and Cincy X won. Meaning more Level 2 points. Bad news Springboro and Louisville X lost. From what I am reading Louisville lost on a controversial play that did not go their way. Moeller plays tomorrow but since we lost to them it doesn't really matter.

Chatard won and are now 8-0. That means next weeks game is very big. If we win that would be a huge Harbin get. LaSalle lost to X so it is basically a push for Level 2 points.

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As of this moment Elder has gotten the following points from the teams they beat.

Neumann 3.2473
Springboro 1.3643
Louisville X 3.5071
X 3.2874

IF Elder beats Chatard on Friday in Indianapolis on Chatard's Senior Night. Elder will get 4.8956 Harbin points. That bolts us from 7th place in to 3rd place in the Harbins. For that reason, this is the biggest game of the year.
 
Still waiting on the Rhodes Scholars to explain to me the benefit of playing a brutal schedule and why they absolutely needed to play 10 regular season games.
 
Vincent and Regina said:
As of this moment Elder has gotten the following points from the teams they beat.

Neumann 3.2473
Springboro 1.3643
Louisville X 3.5071
X 3.2874

IF Elder beats Chatard on Friday in Indianapolis on Chatard's Senior Night. Elder will get 4.8956 Harbin points. That bolts us from 7th place in to 3rd place in the Harbins. For that reason, this is the biggest game of the year.
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If Brass plays, they have a chance. If he doesn’t, they’ll lose, probably by multiple scores.
 
1965 Panther said:
So as of today we play Mason then Princeton then West
Moeller plays West Hi then X then Milford.
We can handle that
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Not unless they’re healthy. They lose to Princeton and West with the team they had last night.

At the same time, a healthy Elder team can compete with anyone in R4.
 
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I'm no Harbin expert, so can someone tell me if Elder was better off playing that lousy team this past Friday or would a bye have been to their advantage.
 
E82 said:
I'm no Harbin expert, so can someone tell me if Elder was better off playing that lousy team this past Friday or would a bye have been to their advantage.
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Yes. Not playing a game is better for the Harbins than playing a winless D7 team. Winning games over D1 teams is also better than losing.
 
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E82 said:
I'm no Harbin expert, so can someone tell me if Elder was better off playing that lousy team this past Friday or would a bye have been to their advantage.
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This is what I said Friday.

Currently our Harbin minimum is 11.7560. Had we not played tonight. Our Harbin minimum would go up to 12.19897. Level 2 mean a lot.
 
My guess is:

Milford
Princeton
West
X
Moeller
Hamilton
Elder
Lebanon

Rd 2:

Milford vs Sycamore
Princeton vs Elder
West vs Hamilton
X vs Moe

Rd 3:

Milford vs Moe
Elder vs West

Rd 4
Moe vs West

Moe advances to state final 4.

I actually hope for playoff seeding purposes Elder loses this week. Getting the 3 would put them in line with a 2nd round game vs Moeller or X probably Moe if they lose to Ed’s.
 
JElder said:
My guess is:

Milford
Princeton
West
X
Moeller
Hamilton
Elder
Lebanon

Rd 2:

Milford vs Sycamore
Princeton vs Elder
West vs Hamilton
X vs Moe

Rd 3:

Milford vs Moe
Elder vs West

Rd 4
Moe vs West

Moe advances to state final 4.

I actually hope for playoff seeding purposes Elder loses this week. Getting the 3 would put them in line with a 2nd round game vs Moeller or X probably Moe if they lose to Ed’s.
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It is still too early to tell. Too many if to say for sure yet. This weekend I plan on looking at all the games left in Region 4 and running some numbers with that. For example West plays Hamilton in Week 10. The way that game goes changes a lot.
 
Milford is likely to finish 10-0. As is Princeton, so those are your top 2.

Moeller has St Ed's and Detroit MLKing, Ed's is a toss up imo and they'll beat MLK (X beat them earlier). If Moe beats Ed's they'll be the 3.

X plays two 1-win teams, granted one of them is against a rival in Ignatius and funny things always seem to happen in those games. They should finish 4 or 5, with two wins.

West plays two winnable games which should get them into the 4-5 spot pending some other results around them. One of those games is against Hamilton.

The Big Blue actually have two tough ones against Sycamore and West. They could lose both and fall outside the top 8, but not likely to fall below 9 or 10 either way.

Sycamore has two tough ones as well, with Hamilton and Princeton. Win both and they could vault up into the top 6. Lose both, they'll likely be sitting there in the 10-12 range.

Lebanon should split their final 2 against winless Walnut Hills and Winton Woods. They'll be fringe 8, more likely 9-10.

Elder needs to win 1 of their final 2 in order to host, otherwise they risk falling outside the top 8. If they win both, they should hop all of Moeller, West and X into the top 3, assuming Moeller doesn't beat Eds.
 
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Harbin Ratings changes I would like to see :
- some point value for strength of schedule where a team gains some points for playing a team rated higher than them even if they lose. Don’t ask me for how but figure something out.
-some point value for playing a game and winning that would be more than not playing at all.
-assessing negative points for bye weeks.
-Re-evaluating after each playoff week the next weeks schedule based on Harbin points instead of going by the original seedlings prior to week one. Example- a 16 seed beats a 1 seed- they do not necessarily play the 8 seed in week 2
They may have to play the 2 seed. (Stops teams from loading up just for the playoffs)
 
adselder09 said:
Elder needs to win 1 of their final 2 in order to host, otherwise they risk falling outside the top 8. If they win both, they should hop all of Moeller, West and X into the top 3, assuming Moeller doesn't beat Eds.
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So the Panthers are in zero danger of falling out of the top 8 if they lose to Chatard but beat LaSalle, correct?
If they beat Chatard and get all those Level 2 points but lose to LaSalle they're clearly in the top 8 but would fourth place for sure be out of reach? Or would that depend on how things play out for others?
 
Pantherontheporch said:
So the Panthers are in zero danger of falling out of the top 8 if they lose to Chatard but beat LaSalle, correct?
If they beat Chatard and get all those Level 2 points but lose to LaSalle they're clearly in the top 8 but would fourth place for sure be out of reach? Or would that depend on how things play out for others?
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I haven't run any numbers, I'm just eye balling it and looking at schedules. But yes, winning one of the final two will keep them in the top 8. Beating Chatard could vault them into the top 4, winning both will send them to the top 4. There's no guarantee that they fall out of the top 8 with two losses, however things would be out of their hands and they would need some help in order to host.
 
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