What will next year and years after look like?

psycho_dad

Well-known member
What do you think private school enrollment figures will look like going forward? Will people be able to afford the price tag or will the private schools have to run in the red for a while to keep enrollment up? Is there the capacity for public schools to properly handle a big influx of kids entering and/ or will open enrollment kids have to be turned away for a while at some schools? Will private schools start dropping in enrollment enough to start pushing public schools up divisions? (Seems like a trend that was started in '08-'09) These are just some of many issues that I see facing us as we get through all this. Small issues in comparison, but there are bound to be big issues that come from the disruption. We talk about leadership with our kids as an essential element to a successful team. Be prepared and do the hard work necessary long before the season starts. Build that base. Make good decisions. Big time real world example of how important all those lessons are. It is very difficult to overcome poor leadership. Very hard to overcome everyone doing their own selfish thing and not working together as a team for the teams goals.
 

CC Track Fan

Active member
This will have an impact on private school enrollment for sure. But what happens with EdChoice will have even bigger impact. If the state add greatly to the number of kids that can get EdChoice (like was going to happen) the privates will most likely grow. But if they cut back that would be a double hit. There are quite a few privates that would have to close if vouchers go away. It would not be immediate because at a minumum the state would let kids finish out there HS year it just wouldn't hand out new vouchers.
 

Mr. Slippery

Well-known member
Private education is not deemed a necessity by most people, so if enough take a significant hit to their income via a lapse in employment or their savings via losses in the financial markets, it will have an effect in the short term. Many will be looking to replace lost income or savings any way they can. Cutting back on educational spending is a lot easier for some than it is to cut back on other expenditures.

Some private schools might already be feeling a pinch. With school not in session, customers who are spreading their tuition payments over the course of the entire year may not be keeping up. This is also the time of year when teaching contracts are offered for next school year. It's very hard to do that with the uncertainties regarding when school will resume and who will be enrolling.

I'm sure many colleges have been forced to hold off on making budgetary decisions for next school year, too. It's even more complicated for the colleges that have large international contingents within their student bodies.
 
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CoventryTrackXCguy

Well-known member
Im still on the million dollar question of what will this year look like? I mean will there even be any semblence of a season this year? The answer still appears to be up in the air. Know this though. Coventry is still training. The senior captains are leading the workouts in place of Coach Savage. And they are adhering to the social distancing. If granted a season, the Comets will be ready. Book it.
 
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Mr. Slippery

Well-known member
Im still on the million dollar question of what will this year look like? I mean will there even be any semblence of a season this year? The answer still appears to be up in the air.
I don't have a concrete answer to that one, but it became apparent once the restrictions started to be laid down that as the school year goes, so goes the spring sports seasons. Barring the sudden emergence of a miracle treatment, it's rather obvious that the closure of schools will be extended. It's been hinted at plenty of times, but there's no reason to make it official yet since the initial order bought the policymakers until the beginning of April before having to do anything else on that front.

So much will depend on when the caseload peaks and at what point after the caseload peaks are policymakers comfortable with allowing people to resume the everyday life they had on March 1. The other big factor here is whether or not the OHSAA is able to secure site availability to have the option of moving the tournaments further into June. Every day counts. That is a lot of variables.

Right now, all we have is hope. I'll take that hope over having the door slammed on the season prematurely.
 

CoventryTrackXCguy

Well-known member
I don't have a concrete answer to that one, but it became apparent once the restrictions started to be laid down that as the school year goes, so goes the spring sports seasons. Barring the sudden emergence of a miracle treatment, it's rather obvious that the closure of schools will be extended. It's been hinted at plenty of times, but there's no reason to make it official yet since the initial order bought the policymakers until the beginning of April before having to do anything else on that front.

So much will depend on when the caseload peaks and at what point after the caseload peaks are policymakers comfortable with allowing people to resume the everyday life they had on March 1. The other big factor here is whether or not the OHSAA is able to secure site availability to have the option of moving the tournaments further into June. Every day counts. That is a lot of variables.

Right now, all we have is hope. I'll take that hope over having the door slammed on the season prematurely.
https://www.facebook.com/douglas.g.frank?epa=SEARCH_BOX ive been following this dude, Dr. frank on Facebook. Dudes been studying, tracking, and modeling epidemics for decades. He is a statistician, mathematician, and scientist. He has been modeling this coronavirus since January. And has been regularly updating his models on a daily basis for all the countries and states being affected by this. Do I truly believe that his admittedly optimistic models will hold? I dont know. They certainly have thus far. But Im following because I am learning a lot from this about statistical modeling, and it is fascinating to me. and the discussions he has with his followers, he goes into detail on his methoodology, answering all questions in a clear concise manner.

That aside, if his statistical models show that the peak cases being added per day in Ohio shall be by this weekend. And the peak actual number of cases should be maybe a week or 2 after that. By easter, the caseload should be receding. by may, life should be in the process of returning to normal. and by June this would be in the rearview. Do i truly believe that will happen? IDK. but that is what they are showing at present. That can change. Returning college students from their ill advised spring break trip could start a secondary or even a tertiary infection., for instance.
 

Mr. Slippery

Well-known member
https://www.facebook.com/douglas.g.frank?epa=SEARCH_BOX ive been following this dude, Dr. frank on Facebook. Dudes been studying, tracking, and modeling epidemics for decades. He is a statistician, mathematician, and scientist. He has been modeling this coronavirus since January. And has been regularly updating his models on a daily basis for all the countries and states being affected by this. Do I truly believe that his admittedly optimistic models will hold? I dont know. They certainly have thus far. But Im following because I am learning a lot from this about statistical modeling, and it is fascinating to me. and the discussions he has with his followers, he goes into detail on his methoodology, answering all questions in a clear concise manner.

That aside, if his statistical models show that the peak cases being added per day in Ohio shall be by this weekend. And the peak actual number of cases should be maybe a week or 2 after that. By easter, the caseload should be receding. by may, life should be in the process of returning to normal. and by June this would be in the rearview. Do i truly believe that will happen? IDK. but that is what they are showing at present. That can change. Returning college students from their ill advised spring break trip could start a secondary or even a tertiary infection., for instance.
In the unlikely event that colleges would reconvene classes on campus, I'd assume most colleges would take a stance of, "if you went home, then don't bother returning this spring."


It was only a matter of time, but the 2020 Cleveland Marathon is officially cancelled - at least in the physical form. It was to have been held on May 17. Instead, you can either participate in a virtual marathon where you log your miles online, they'll keep your $, and send you your shirt and medal, and consider their end of the transaction complete. Otherwise, you can defer your entry to 2021 or 2022. An attempt was made to postpone this year's race until the fall, but due to other previously scheduled events and not knowing the Browns' home schedule (not released until mid-April), they could not reach an agreement with the city on a suitable date.
 

grange45

Active member
Im still on the million dollar question of what will this year look like? I mean will there even be any semblence of a season this year? The answer still appears to be up in the air. Know this though. Coventry is still training. The senior captains are leading the workouts in place of Coach Savage. And they are adhering to the social distancing. If granted a season, the Comets will be ready. Book it.
Even if they are social distancing I hope they are not meeting together. That is one thing Snodgrass said: no captain led practices. They don't have a coaching permit (which requires alot of online classes and cpr) to be safe if something wrong happens.

I'd hate for them to lose eligibility for a stupid coaching decision and post.
 

grange45

Active member
Going back to the original post, I know almost all my friends that have kids or grandkids in private school live from paycheck to paycheck (which is very common in today's world for some reason). I can't see them paying the tuition for the rest of the year especially if the AP tests get cancelled and the requirements for 4th quarter graduation get waived along with the spring sport they want their kid to participate in to get that "upper edge". Really Im thinking thats one of main the reasons why Dewine and Snodgrass hasn't made the graduation and spring sports decision yet. Dewine is EdChoice.
 
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psycho_dad

Well-known member
It seems like Ohio and especially Ohio schools have done a good job of reacting to the situation. However, I'm afraid that our kids are going to suffer because not all states or people are doing a good job.

I keep typing things and deleting them as I get more and more disgusted. Black hole of leadership. Our kids are doing a great job. They deserve better.
 

grange45

Active member
It seems like Ohio and especially Ohio schools have done a good job of reacting to the situation. However, I'm afraid that our kids are going to suffer because not all states or people are doing a good job.

I keep typing things and deleting them as I get more and more disgusted. Black hole of leadership. Our kids are doing a great job. They deserve better.
I’m praying everyone trusts the advice of the CDC and the other experts like Acton and STOP contradicting them. They are the experts and need to be trusted. DeWine is listening and hope other politicians do the same.

In another thread I commented that posts of misinformation and saying it’s a fear campaign need to stop. The experts are experts and have nothing to gain for themselves from making these restrictions, except knowing they did the right thing when they reflect on their lives at the end of the tunnel.

Snodgrass needs to stop waiting and make a decision now. It’s putting false hope and unnecessary buildup for all athletes when all the experts say there is no way this going to get better until mid May...and still mass gatherings like sporting events will still not to be able to gather. You can tell when he talks that he knows it, but doesn’t want to make the decision.
 

cvctrackfan

Active member
Today the Ohsaa announced that the winter tournaments are officially closed. And they stated that they don’t expect the schools to open for several weeks. This year looks very bleak .
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
Snodgrass needs to stop waiting and make a decision now. It’s putting false hope and unnecessary buildup for all athletes when all the experts say there is no way this going to get better until mid May...
I disagree. No need to make a decision yet. My son is continuing to work hard even with the knowledge that there is very little chance he will compete this season. It does him good and from what I see and hear, a lot of kids are working hard and living healthy. We owe it to them to wait as long as we can. It doesn't hurt anything to wait to the last possible second. If schools were to open mid May, our kids are ready day one to compete. Every kid in the state deserves to have their hard work and commitment rewarded. It gives them something to focus on besides the garbage of the situation. Hope is a good thing. I don't care if it's just one or two meets.
 

grange45

Active member
The main problem I'm starting to see is that even though kids are supposed to be doing workouts on their own, I still see alot congregating to run together and do workouts. Alot of high school kids are not getting it (along with some coaches and parents...just look at the conventry comment earlier in the thread). This false hope that the season can still happen is allowing people to be unsafe and they should more be focusing on the crisis at hand and doing everything they can to prevent the spread.

My friends dad just got diagnosed with it and is at high risk for it to be fatal. I wish they can be more like your son and be smart, but alot of them are not and not thinking about others. There is so much more important things right now than having a season.
 

CC Track Fan

Active member
I’m praying everyone trusts the advice of the CDC and the other experts like Acton and STOP contradicting them.
So your saying we should blindly trust the doctor that said there was over 100k case of COVID-19 in Ohio two weeks ago? When that was there big reason to cancel school. Seems to me the politicians are the ones pedaling fear. Every day in the world 150k die in the US it is 8k. COVID-19 to my best estimate has not even cracked the top 100 causes.

Yes this is a serious situation but we need to be careful to not over react. Being a numbers guy the numbers just don't support further restrictions. Freedoms comes with potential costs. Think of how many lives would be saved if lowered the speed limits to 40mph on interstates and 20mph on all other roads. But doing that is not worth the impact to our freedoms.
 

grange45

Active member
So your saying we should blindly trust the doctor that said there was over 100k case of COVID-19 in Ohio two weeks ago? When that was there big reason to cancel school. Seems to me the politicians are the ones pedaling fear. Every day in the world 150k die in the US it is 8k. COVID-19 to my best estimate has not even cracked the top 100 causes.

Yes this is a serious situation but we need to be careful to not over react. Being a numbers guy the numbers just don't support further restrictions. Freedoms comes with potential costs. Think of how many lives would be saved if lowered the speed limits to 40mph on interstates and 20mph on all other roads. But doing that is not worth the impact to our freedoms.
Totally agree about not over-reacting but I trust the experts. Every country is doing or has done the same thing Ohio is doing right now. Its not about politics.

HIV was in the forefront of people's brains. It didnt kill as many people as other things. The problem was there was no cure and was taken seriously. You could prevent getting it pretty easily. This is not the case with this.

Really if we had the hospitals we actually need that could handle a rapid spike in patients, we wouldn't be in this situation. Instead we're thinking of the maximum capacity of these hospitals that can only handle a 20% increase in patients. Something needs to change with our health care system if we dont want to go through this again.
 

CC Track Fan

Active member
Totally agree about not over-reacting but I trust the experts. Every country is doing or has done the same thing Ohio is doing right now. Its not about politics.

HIV was in the forefront of people's brains. It didnt kill as many people as other things. The problem was there was no cure and was taken seriously. You could prevent getting it pretty easily. This is not the case with this.

Really if we had the hospitals we actually need that could handle a rapid spike in patients, we wouldn't be in this situation. Instead we're thinking of the maximum capacity of these hospitals that can only handle a 20% increase in patients. Something needs to change with our health care system if we dont want to go through this again.
My point it is hard to trust the expert when the lead one in Ohio has been so far off with her projections. A couple weeks ago Britain's experts were saying there was going to be 500k deaths in UK are now saying it is only going to be 20k. It appears experts are just throwing out worse case out there not what is most likely going to happen. Do you really think this is going to peak at 10k cases per day in Ohio when we are well over a month into this and only have 1,137 case total? The math just doesn't add up.

There are only 107 ICU admissions in the state what is less than one per hospital and only 276 even in the hospital. I think Ohio as plenty of space to handle this "spike" in patients.

I am not saying things should just being going on like normal just need to consider the impact of what the government is doing. I will never just blindly trust the government.
 

grange45

Active member
My point it is hard to trust the expert when the lead one in Ohio has been so far off with her projections. A couple weeks ago Britain's experts were saying there was going to be 500k deaths in UK are now saying it is only going to be 20k. It appears experts are just throwing out worse case out there not what is most likely going to happen. Do you really think this is going to peak at 10k cases per day in Ohio when we are well over a month into this and only have 1,137 case total? The math just doesn't add up.

There are only 107 ICU admissions in the state what is less than one per hospital and only 276 even in the hospital. I think Ohio as plenty of space to handle this "spike" in patients.

I am not saying things should just being going on like normal just need to consider the impact of what the government is doing. I will never just blindly trust the government.
Read my last paragraph in my last post. This is what really is happening. I’m trusting the experts to not overwhelm the health care system and DeWine is listening to them. It needs to change if we don’t want this to happen again. I have friends in Italy right now that say it’s terrible right now because they seee people dying in the streets because they don’t have enough health care related items.
 

grange45

Active member
Also this is NOT going to peak until mid May. Any current statistic about icu’s is irrelevant. That stat is going to increase exponentially over the next few weeks. My wife is in the medical field and they are freaking out right now when it happens. They’ve had numerous meetings about it to prepare but I’m expecting not to see her at home for at least 2-3 weeks when it happens.
 

grange45

Active member
Jeez. I should of just said okay boomer and moved on.

I’m out of these forums for a while until we can talk about sports again and not someone throwing out their political jargon. This situation sucks but throwing people under the bus because they are making the tough decisions is uncalled for. Run for office if you are so passionate about it.

Newton I’ve liked your posts in the past but DeWine is not making any friends making these decisions and can’t understand how you say it’s politics. He or Acton are not gaining votes for their next election.
 
There is a whole list of stuff from a Dewine 0 grade on public health leading to vulnerable Ohioans, to Acton saying to there was NO Reason to postpone primaries, and less than 8 hours later after Dewine lost in court, declaring an emergency that primaries must be dropped. That was NOT a medical decision. There are about 5-6 other very obvious political spins on things. I will not respond since some do not want politics mentioned but I felt a need for balanced views. I am not saying that Dewine is doing a bad job in a very tough situation but I think politics drives most everything done by most politicians.
 

yj_runfan

Well-known member
I’m afraid the virus experts are like weathermen. The ones that make the most dire predictions get the most attention. Anyone that talks about less than “worst case” scenarios gets shouted down and called dangerous. There is no discussion at all.
Without a vaccination, which is a year or more away, the only way a virus dies down is herd immunity. x percentage of the population has to gain immunity by surviving the virus. That’s the only way this gets better. Protecting the health system from overload will make the process last many, many months. That’s the dirty truth the experts don’t like to tell people.
 

Running Man 101

Active member
Read my last paragraph in my last post. This is what really is happening. I’m trusting the experts to not overwhelm the health care system and DeWine is listening to them. It needs to change if we don’t want this to happen again. I have friends in Italy right now that say it’s terrible right now because they seee people dying in the streets because they don’t have enough health care related items.
Italy has a poor health care system compared with the US (and a much older average age). You get what you pay for with government run health care. It sounds good to say everyone should have the same health care, just like with an education, but what winds up happening is dragging the top down, not the bottom up. Spent way to much time in former eastern Europe to wish that on anyone. There still winds up being a 2-tiered system, one for the people running things and one for everyone else.

There will still be more people to die from the flu than Covid-19 in the US (China stopped testing about a month ago and just makes up stuff anyway so their numbers are meaningless). Herd immunity is the only thing that will stop this. Looks like 1.6% death rate for people who get it in a normal population distribution. In every case that has information attached, it looks like it was one straw to many for the people who pass (which is sad for their family).

All of the things we're told to do (except for social distancing) is the same as I was taught growing up, wash your hands frequently, wear clean clothes every day and drink plenty of water.
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
A few things on social distancing. I went out yesterday to an auto parts store to pick up a part that I needed and they had in stock . When I went in, there was only one other customer. We were nowhere near each other. I picked up my part and paid. I had to touch a keypad how many others had touched? In the 5 minutes I was there, 10 other cars had pulled in and at least 15 people had entered the store. I tried to be careful, but as I looked back at the store, many of those people were within 6 feet of each other at some point.

I live right up against the Cuyahoga Valley National Park. There are little parking lots and trails all over the place. Some you rarely see more than a car or two. Parking lots are full at ones that are used sparingly at best most other times. I understand it's out doors, but at some point, a lot of those people are going to pass each other on a very small trail.

I am not knowledgeable on this, but I've known people that seem to over sterilize their hands and door knobs and everything in their lives to the point where they are sick all the time. Is that possible? Honestly. The people that I know like this get everything that ever goes around. I had gone nearly 15 years without getting real sick. I'm not germ conscious whatsoever. When i get sick, it's bad. It's few and far between though. Can we get to the point where we are over sterilizing ourselves?

I'm laid off, but my company is still operating. We are primarily a flooring store with installations and then Kitchen and Bath remodels. I design and sell kitchens and baths. Our flooring division is still starting and finishing projects. As long as the supply chain is there, the owner intends on continuing. Installers willing to work have work. There is probably enough work out there to get them through to late April. Makes no sense to me. I have a letter stating that I am able to still work as we are considered "Essential". No we aren't.

My household has someone that has to go to work everyday in a hospital. We have done a real good job of isolating ourselves. However, it's not perfect. Our one absolute essential worker going into work everyday is really raising our risk I would think.

I really don't understand if I'm part of the solution or part of the problem?
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
What is this going to do to public schools funding? This year could be a big hit for taxes. How many years down the road will this hit? Sports programs will be the first to suffer. More pay to play? Will it be as soon as next school year?
 
As far as sports I have read that many think fall sports at all levels are already in jeopardy with Olympics and other summer events already taken down. I think you are right. What you describe will certainly have long lasting repercussions many of which are not yet seen.
 

cvctrackfan

Active member
FYI The Governor just announced that schools will be closed at least until May 1st. Under the current schedule that will give us 6 weeks of competition.
 
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