State predictions

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SVillegrad

Well-known member
I had a little time on my hand this evening and simulated the boys D1 meet based off a mix of regional times and season bests. We'll find out how close these are next week, but I have Lancaster edging out Pickerington Central 36-34 for the team title with Toledo St. John's (26), Licking Heights (25) and Avon (25) rounding out the top five. Here's my scoring breakdown for those teams:

1. Lancaster: 800 meters, Thress (first, 10); 4X8 (first, 10); Pole vault, Long (first, 10) and Edwards (third, 6)
2. Pickerington Central: 100 meters, Lane (first, 10); 200 meters, Lane (second, 8); 4X2 (second, 8); 4X4 (second, 8)
3. Toledo St. John's: 100 meters, Kelly (eighth, 1); 200 meters, Kelly (fifth, 4); 400 meters, Taylor (fourth, 5); 4X2 (third, 6); 4X4 (first, 10)
4. Licking Heights: 200 meters, Fillmore (first, 10); 4X1 (fourth, 5); Long jump, Fillmore (first, 10)
5. Avon: 400 meters, Weatherspoon (eighth, 1); 300 hurdles, Lindsay (seventh, 2); 4X1 (third, 6); 4X2 (seventh, 2); 4X4 (fourth, 5); Discus, Hamilton (fourth, 5); shot put, Hamilton (fifth, 4)

As I suspected, Pickerington Central being DQ'd in the 4X100 opens up the team race. They would have been a big favorite there, however, my second place prediction for them in the 4X400 is assuming Lane joins that relay now (he ran an open 400 this year so it wouldn't be his first time at that distance).

My dark horse is definitely Avon, which IMO has the best overall collection of entrants. The problem is I don't see them winning any event, but they have a lot of wiggle room.

I was going to run the boys D2, but then I saw that Glenville has 2 in both the 100 and 200; one in the 400; all three sprint relays are title favorites and a high jumper who should score. Unless disaster happens, they'll easily roll up 50-plus points.

Any other thoughts/predictions are welcome.
 
Lancermania

Lancermania

Lancers lead the way!
Does anyone think Mason's girls can win the DI state team championship? They blew out the R4 regional meet 117-52 over second place Wayne at Wayne..
 
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bigkat

Well-known member
Could the MAC take both Div 3 boys and girls state championships--- Minster girls, Marion Local Boys....
 
JAVMAN83

JAVMAN83

Well-known member
Lancermania said:
Does anyone think Mason's girls can win the DI state team championship? They blew out the R4 regional meet 117-52 over second place Wayne at Wayne..
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It all comes down to match-ups at the state level and performing up to your best.
 
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Mr. Slippery

Well-known member
bigkat said:
what are the other teams to look for?

Marion looks strong in Discus, Pole vault, long jump, shot....

your thoughts on the girls competition?
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Go here first. https://www.baumspage.com/ohsaa/tf/2023/pre/b3part.htm
You can eliminate any teams that aren't qualified in at least 3 events.

Then go here. https://www.baumspage.com/ohsaa/tf/2023/pre/b3heat.htm

If everything goes chalk (it won't), Marion Local is projected to score 20 pts. PV and 4x4 are their best chances to score big. I do like that they are qualified in a lot of events to give them a lot of places where they can get points. However, many of their other qualifiers are seeded on the edge of where they would either score 1 pt. or nothing. A few teams I looked at can score more than 20 on paper. In no particular order: Margaretta, Columbus Grove, Rittman, Tinora, Ashland Crestview. United may be kicking themselves for not having Nastari go for the 16-8 double. He was successful with it when he tried it during the regular season. Any team getting to 30 will have overperformed and could be nearly impossible to beat.

Reminds me of the girls competition in 2013 where Versailles won it with either 26 or 28 points and all of their points coming in 3 sprint relays. The only other event they were qualified in was the high jump. My school tied for 3rd that year with 20 points thanks to a sprinter who won 2 events.

I haven't looked at the girls heat sheets as closely, and I'm not sure I will get that far before Friday morning.
 
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UEAlum

Member
Mr. Slippery said:
Go here first. https://www.baumspage.com/ohsaa/tf/2023/pre/b3part.htm
You can eliminate any teams that aren't qualified in at least 3 events.

Then go here. https://www.baumspage.com/ohsaa/tf/2023/pre/b3heat.htm

If everything goes chalk (it won't), Marion Local is projected to score 20 pts. PV and 4x4 are their best chances to score big. I do like that they are qualified in a lot of events to give them a lot of places where they can get points. However, many of their other qualifiers are seeded on the edge of where they would either score 1 pt. or nothing. A few teams I looked at can score more than 20 on paper. In no particular order: Margaretta, Columbus Grove, Rittman (w/ only 2 athletes), Tinora, Ashland Crestview. United may be kicking themselves for not having Nastari go for the 16-8 double. He was successful with it when he tried it during the regular season. Any team getting to 30 will have overperformed and could be nearly impossible to beat.

Reminds me of the girls competition in 2013 where Versailles won it with either 26 or 28 points and all of their points coming in 3 sprint relays. The only other event they were qualified in was the high jump. My school tied for 3rd that year with 20 points thanks to a sprinter who won 2 events.

I haven't looked at the girls heat sheets as closely, and I'm not sure I will get that far before Friday morning.
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He's in the 4x800 and 4x400 as well. The 1600 and 800 are just a little close for comfort.
 
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ENA2

Active member
Rittman could score close to 26-28 with a good meet. SP and 16/32 should get 24 or so with just duplicating last week's effort and the 4 x 8 and 800 could get a couple pts each...if the NE drops like they usually do. maybe not enough to win, but in the hunt.
 
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Mr. Slippery

Well-known member
ENA2 said:
Rittman could score close to 26-28 with a good meet. SP and 16/32 should get 24 or so with just duplicating last week's effort and the 4 x 8 and 800 could get a couple pts each...if the NE drops like they usually do. maybe not enough to win, but in the hunt.
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I forgot Rittman had a qualifier in the 800 and the 4x8. I'm not sure if either will score though. It might be too much to ask of the freshman to get top 2-3 in each event of the 16-32 double, but he ranks high on paper and has done that double (and even a triple or 2) during the regular season. He and other 16-32 doublers will get an extra 10-15 min. of rest due to the seated 800 finals being scheduled during the D3 session. That will also help runners coming back from the 800 to the 4x400 final. We could be in the upper 80s by the end of that session on Sat. As always, the D2 distance kids will bear the brunt of the hot conditions. I really wish the OHSAA would go back to rotating the divisions through each session like they did in the not too distant past.
 
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Mr. Slippery

Well-known member
UEAlum said:
He's in the 4x800 and 4x400 as well. The 1600 and 800 are just a little close for comfort.
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4x8 is Friday only, so he'd have had 2 races on Fri. and up to 3 on Sat. (assuming 4x4 advanced). He showed with his performance at GlenOak that he has the tools to do that double against top competition on what I recall being an unseasonably hot day for that point in the season, but I can't fault United too much. I doubt they had much idea how few points it might take to win the team title at state when they were making the district lineup. I certainly didn't have any idea until I studied the heat sheet yesterday.
 
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SVillegrad

Well-known member
I'm a little surprised that Paint Valley's Cole Miller didn't run the 110. I get that doing that and then immediately doing the 100 is tough, but he did it last week at regionals. Miller has a shot at winning the 100, 200 and long jump which would put Paint Valley right in the mix for the team title, but it may have taken just a point or two for him in the 110 to get them over the top.

FWIW, I had him, in my who knows how accurate projections, squeezing out a point in the 110 and him winning the other three events and Paint Valley finishing runner-up with 31 points ... one behind Columbus Grove at 32, who is going to rack up big points in the shot/discus and should score in the 3200 and the pole vault.

If anybody is curious, I had the scoring:
1. Columbus Grove - 32
2. Paint Valley - 31
3. Ashland Crestview - 29
4. Rittman - 24
5. Marion Local - 23

I ended up running D2 boys as well and have it:
1. Glenville - 61 (will take an epic disaster for them not to win)
2. Marlington - 38
3. Toledo Central Catholic - 34
4. Woodridge - 27
5. Norwayne - 24
 
S

SVillegrad

Well-known member
Mr. Slippery said:
4x8 is Friday only, so he'd have had 2 races on Fri. and up to 3 on Sat. (assuming 4x4 advanced). He showed with his performance at GlenOak that he has the tools to do that double against top competition on what I recall being an unseasonably hot day for that point in the season, but I can't fault United too much. I doubt they had much idea how few points it might take to win the team title at state when they were making the district lineup. I certainly didn't have any idea until I studied the heat sheet yesterday.
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I'm a bit surprised as well. But like you mentioned about not knowing how close the team race was going to be, nobody also could have predicted the weather breaking like this. As hot as it is, I don't think it's going to have that big of an effect on mid/distance double attempts because of how dry it is. This is almost like running in desert-like conditions (hot as what but zero humidity).

The other thing I thought specifically with Nestari is that he has a chance to break the all-divisions 800 record. What would be a bigger accomplishment ... winning a team title (based on points accumulated really all because of Nestari) or letting him go out and try to take down the 800 mark?

Personally, in this instance, I would say going for the 800 record is the right way to go.
 
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Mr. Slippery

Well-known member
So far, we potentially have 2 D2 boys state records being broken. Morlock throws 65' in the shot put, and Shackelford jumps 24' 5" in the long jump prelims. Need a wind reading on Shackelford's jump to see if it will become the new record.
 
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Mr. Slippery

Well-known member
After looking at girls D3 yesterday and based on what has happened so far, keep an eye on Norwayne. They may be the overnight leaders after field events are completed later today. 4x1 and 4x2 are through to finals so far with 4x4 still to come, and they could have 20 points coming from Wingate in the 16 and 8 tomorrow. They could score 40-50.
 
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SVillegrad

Well-known member
Mr. Slippery said:
Shackelford out with a bang in long jump at 25' 6.5" (pending a wind reading for record purposes)!
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That has to be the No. 2 jump in state history. Very close to RaMon Johnson's 25-9, which is way up there in terms of state records that I thought were untouchable.

BTW, Shackelford must have got hurt at districts. I noticed he barely made it through in the 100 (think finished fourth) and then was scratched in the 200 and he didn't compete in any of the other events outside the long jump (which I'm guessing was completed before his 100 run).

If he's 100 percent, puts him right in the mix for the 100 title and too bad he was unable to compete in the 200 at district because him at 100 percent and Louis probably push each other sub 21 in the 200 (Louis still may get that).
 
C

CC Track Fan

Well-known member
How does Minster do it nearly every year. Crazy margin of victory.

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SVillegrad

Well-known member
Dewayne Galloway from Marion-Franklin set the D2 200 record with a legal 21.18 (+1.8) in his preliminary.

Mason Louis went 21.29 in his heat ... wind aided at +3.3. Louis has gone 21.19 this year (no wind available for that one).

But I still think we could see a pair of sub 21s tomorrow in D2 ... D1 is also looking very likely as well.
 
S

SVillegrad

Well-known member
And if it wasn't a formality to begin with, I'm pretty safe in making the call now lol ... Glenville has locked up its second straight boys D2 team title (and 18th state title in program history ... believe all 16 others were in D1 or equivalent).

They got all eight track qualifers/relays through to the finals and have a high jumper who should score to boot.
 
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Stirred not Shaken

Well-known member
Congratulations to Marion Local's Nate Buschur winning the D3 PV with a vault of 15'10'' over 2 time defending state champ Zaiden Fry of Mohawk. Buschur (and I might be wrong) I believe is the 1st Flyer boy to win an individual state title in track.
 
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serpico

Well-known member
Stirred not Shaken said:
Congratulations to Marion Local's Nate Buschur winning the D3 PV with a vault of 15'10'' over 2 time defending state champ Zaiden Fry of Mohawk. Buschur (and I might be wrong) I believe is the 1st Flyer boy to win an individual state title in track.
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Gary Moeller would like a word! 😉
 
Lancermania

Lancermania

Lancers lead the way!
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The winning foursome of Evab Trapp, Jack Nesbit, Alex Garay, and AJ Graf that went 7:45.21 to win the DI 4 x 800 relay title
Photo retrieved from St.Xsport.net
 
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Mr. Slippery

Well-known member
Looking like Marion Local boys will take the D3 team title. They've placed far better than their seedings coming in from regionals.
 
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