State predictions?

R

Runningfast

Active member
Now that we know who will toe the line this week, any predictions?

My very quick thoughts. I apologize if I missed someone painfully obvious.

Girls D1:
Beavercreek looks legit. Their front four could find themselves all inside the top 10, and their fifth was nearly an individual state qualifier in a region that had six top 10 teams in the most recent poll. If they run like they usually do, they should win handily.

Hilliard has great depth. Stull will likely score in the single digits, they have a tight 1-5 compression, and may have the top #5 runner in the field. If something goes haywire with Creek's top four, HD could snatch the title.

After that, I see a bit of a gap back to Lakota East, Medina, Thomas Worthington, Loveland and Mason (not necessarily in that order).

Individuals:
1. Ewert by a mile.
2. Roark
3. Santos
4. Stull
5. Ullom
6. Pierce
7. Mick
8. Keller
9. Williams
10. Duncan


Boys D1
St. X seems the class of the field. They dominated in Troy, even with a pretty strong Mason team in the field. Hard to get a read on some of the northern teams. At different moments this year, Kenston, Louisville, and Hudson have all seemed like top-end teams. Gahanna Lincoln has a nice team. Hilliard Davidson seems to be charging here at the end of the year.

1. St. X
2. Hudson
3. Mason
4. Kenston
5. Gahanna Lincoln
6. Hilliard Davidson
7. St. Ignatius
8. Beavercreek
9. Ashland
10. Pick North

Individuals:
1. Duvall
2. Cook
3. Iller
4. N. Moore
5. Williams
6. Mountain
7. Zucca
8. Carras
9. Conley
10. Dediu
 
 
Pretty good list. Mason's Ullom has had a stellar year and I could see her moving up a spot and Jules ran an amazing race this weekend and proved she can hang with (or like this weekend even in front of) Pierce if only by a shoulder. Ewert's lead will only be matched by that of her teams on that side of it.
 
Runningfast said:
Now that we know who will toe the line this week, any predictions?

My very quick thoughts. I apologize if I missed someone painfully obvious.

Girls D1:
Beavercreek looks legit. Their front four could find themselves all inside the top 10, and their fifth was nearly an individual state qualifier in a region that had six top 10 teams in the most recent poll. If they run like they usually do, they should win handily.

Hilliard has great depth. Stull will likely score in the single digits, they have a tight 1-5 compression, and may have the top #5 runner in the field. If something goes haywire with Creek's top four, HD could snatch the title.

After that, I see a bit of a gap back to Lakota East, Medina, Thomas Worthington, Loveland and Mason (not necessarily in that order).

Individuals:
1. Ewert by a mile.
2. Roark
3. Santos
4. Stull
5. Ullom
6. Pierce
7. Mick
8. Keller
9. Williams
10. Duncan
Click to expand...

Your team race list looks decent. I agree that Beavercreek is the class of the field.

Davidson will not be as close as you think that they could be to Creek (BTW, you denoted Davidson as "Hilliard." There are three high schools in Hilliard - Bradley, Darby, and Davidson). I would look for Lakota East to challenge Davidson for the 2nd spot. It appears that East had an "off" race at Troy. I expected them to have a lower point total. That said, I have no clue how they raced. They were pretty much a given to go to state but not beat Creek so perhaps if some runners were recovering they held back. I have no idea and am only speculating.

I would also look for Mason to run better at state. They were also "off" a bit at Troy. Loveland was ahead of Mason at Troy but I doubt that will happen at state. Loveland is running well so it is possible, though.

The other teams you mentioned to be up in the top 10 of the team standing seem to be reasonable but I would add Cleveland St. Joe and Hudson into the mix. As sometimes happens, teams from Boardman sometimes get overlooked.

In the individual race Ewert is obviously a no-brainer. Her winning margin of "by a mile" is obviously figurative hyperbole. My literal estimate of her margin of victory will be somewhere around 200 meters and those closest to her will also run an excellent race. She's just that much faster than the field.

Santos and Mick will challenge Roark for the 2nd spot. I believe that Medina's Keller will also place higher than where you have her. Others that could contend for a high placing, that you did not mention, are Bardwell of Brunswick, Richards of Lake, and Kaylor of Princeton. There's a freshman that I am thinking of that has only run a few races this season. For what reason she has run so few races, injury or whatever, I do not know. She just now seems to be getting into form. I do not want to name the runner because I could be totally off in how strong I think she can be. There are also some very strong frosh coming from Boardman.

We'll could also see a surprise or two in there. The teams and runners coming out of Boardman seem to be oft-overlooked and that is probably due to that course generally running slower compared to the other regional sites. Times from this past Saturday should not be considered too heavily when making comparisons between regionals - particularly with the amount of rain that Troy received.
 
On the boys side, I would believe St. X is the favorite. There appears to be a major race playing out for Runner Up between Lincoln, Mason, Kenston, Davidson, and Hudson. On the perfect day I could see either of these teams earning the spot and potentially even challenging X if all does not go to plan with their St. X’s team.

Looking back at regionals, Kenston beat Hudson by a 8 points and could have an advantage over them; however, it was such a close gap it could go either way. Davidson appears to have had a rough race at regionals with their 2-7 farther back when compared to Lincoln. On a good day they could certainly challenge for podium although so could Lincoln especially with their 2 up front. Then Mason is of course a strong contender for the spot as well.

Lots of things could happen at National Trails.
 
I don't think Kenston or Hudson have enough at 5 to be top 5. My hope is I'm wrong and Kenston scratches out a podium spot.

My guess is .
X
Mason
Lincoln
Davidson
Beavercreek
Kenston
Ashland
Hudson
Iggy
Solon
 
Wocrunner said:
On the boys side, I would believe St. X is the favorite. There appears to be a major race playing out for Runner Up between Lincoln, Mason, Kenston, Davidson, and Hudson. On the perfect day I could see either of these teams earning the spot and potentially even challenging X if all does not go to plan with their St. X’s team.
Click to expand...
I agree more with psycho dad's pick than your picks.

St. X is the class of the field. I was still flummoxed that Hudson had one of the first place votes in the pre-regional OATCCC poll. That was a lot better than the prior week, though, when Hudson had 8 of the 1st place votes vs 3 for St. X. I don't know if a pre-state poll is released but I would expect St. to have all of the 1st place votes.

After St X I see Mason. The big battle will be for 3rd. A lot of teams in the mix for that spot but I agree that Hudson is not one of them. Not only is there too big of a gap back to Hudson's #5, it appears that the #4 also needs to step up. I feel the same about Kenston but I give them the edge over Hudson. It's my hunch but I feel that Lincoln or Davidson for the 3rd spot.
 
Boys D2
The main attraction of this race will be seeing how low Woodridge and Caleb Brown can go. At least a D2 record seems likely for Brown, possibly a course record if conditions allow.

Team:
Woodridge
Unioto
Bay
Heath
Defiance
Carroll
Poland
Madeira
West Liberty Salem
Waynesville

Individual:
Brown
Bronson
Tate
Foehl
Blair
Champa
Gucker
Meadows
Wilke
Elkurd

Also notable: Agnew, Malone, Christopher, Coon.
 
I’m looking forward to the race between the two outstanding freshman. GlenOak’s Tommy Rice and Hilliard Davidson’s Connor Ackley. Rice was 6th in his region at Boardman and Ackley was 8th in his region at Pickerington. Both All-State? Both Podium?
 
Has anyone done a MileSplit virtual meet for all the divisions. Didn't they do that the past few years? I recall it was pretty bad since it was all time driven and teams from the NE would be ranked real low. Just interested to see If my half brained method is more accurate that times from milesplit.
 
The pre-state OATCCC polls are now out and are here. It looks like they finally got the first place votes correct in boys D1 with St. X getting all 12.

Boys D1
1. St Xavier 240 (12)
2. Mason 219
3. Kenston 206
4. Hudson 203
5. Gahanna Lincoln 199
6. Hilliard Davidson 168
7. St Ignatius 153
8. Solon 150
9. Beavercreek 141
10. Pickerington North 128

St. X & Mason at 1 & 2 seems reasonable but I just don't see Kenston and Hudson ahead of Lincoln & Davidson. As I mentioned in an earlier post I see D1 boys like this on Saturday:

1. St. X
2. Mason
3. Lincoln
4. Davison
5. Kenston
6. Hudson

Girls D1
1. Beavercreek 240 (12)
2. Hilliard Davidson 228
3. Lakota East 216
4. Loveland 191
5. Mason 190
6. Medina 184
7. Springboro 158
8. Cleveland St Josephs 157
9. Thomas Worthington 131
10.Shaker Heights 124

My picks.

1. Beavercreek
2. Davidson or Lakota East
4. Mason
5. Loveland
6. St. Joe
7. Medina
8. Hudson
 
I was looking forward to seeing the top 5 of Woodridge under 16:00 and the fastest average time for D2 of all time. POOH
 
CCFREAK said:
D2
Woodridge
Unioto
Defiance
Bay
Heath
Carroll
Maderia
West Liberty-Salem
ASVSM
Waynesville
Click to expand...
I am hoping Unioto has a good run on Saturday. They have been to state cross country meet I think 5 or 6 years in row. Last year was their best finish at 6th. Woodridge is probably a shoe for the title but would love to see Unioto finish 2nd. It would be a great accomplished for the success of the program- be great to see a Southeast District team go home with a trophy.
 
bsee54321 said:
I am hoping Unioto has a good run on Saturday. They have been to state cross country meet I think 5 or 6 years in row. Last year was their best finish at 6th. Woodridge is probably a shoe for the title but would love to see Unioto finish 2nd. It would be a great accomplished for the success of the program- be great to see a Southeast District team go home with a trophy.
Click to expand...
Unioto did not qualify in 2016. It's the only year since 2003 that they did not qualify as a team.
 
Woodridge boys 44 (I hope I'm high, but that's realistic)
Bay 2nd (Picking with my heart)

Woodridge girls hoping for a top 10 finish.
 
Congrats to the incredibly successful girls programs at Beavercreek, Lexington and Minster, who won their second, third and fourth consecutive state titles, respectively. Ewert of Beavercreek and Gilson of Hawken also repeated as individual champions.
If you scored D1 as a dual meet, Beavercreek vs. Ohio, thru four girls, the score would have been 19-18
 
What was I thinking? That was impressive. Take the Seniors off of the Woodridge and they still score under 100. They bring back a solid top 5
 
I did 3 virtual dual meets based on state meet times. Woodridge 26 St X 29, Mason 26 Woodridge 29, St X 27 Mason 28

Don't think I left anyone out.
 
Last edited:
KevinL said:
Amateur

37 pts. Congrats!!
Click to expand...
I would like to call attention to this post of mine from the NE Regional thread:

yappi.com

NE REGIONAL

Is 42 your point guesstimate for Woodridge? Seems a little high to me. High 20s-low 30s. I went back and reworked my numbers. 42 probably is not a bad guess but I think it is still a tad high. I'm coming up with between 35 & 38. Accounting for the competitors out of Tiffin is tough when...
yappi.com yappi.com
 
The x-mas display made it impossible for me to watch the start of the race and be able to get to a place on the fence to see them go by. I'm barely fast enough anymore to do it, but up until now, I've been able to. I love the start of CC races. For the girls races, I just went over to the west side stands and watched from there. That seems to be the best place to watch from. Concession trailers need to be place away from the grand stands. It's just a big bottle neck where it is now and people get stuck there not being able to move. If you just give in and be a passive observer of the races and use your smart phone to follow the race, it's a much better experience. However, Cell service was spotty. During the D2 girls, everything dropped at the finish. D2 boys was fine for me, but the person next to me had nothing or was way behind the info I was getting. Don't know how that can be cleaned up.

The bus parking was bad, but people managed to deal with it. The buses were coming in as people were walking though that area (since it was the only way to get back to the team camps. exits...etc...) and it would get all clogged up. Not the end of the world.

This baffles me every year. I come to the facility from the North through Granville. It puts me just east of the facility as I come in to park. They make me park on the east side. But, when I go to leave, they make all the cars on the east exit towards the west. Cars from the west are coming east. Does that somehow make it easier to get to 70 for people? It makes no sense for me, but I'm sure there has to be a good reason.

It seems to me that there are a lot of people there for D2 and D1 that watch the D3 races and D2 and D3 seem to stay for D1 races. I would not go see the other divisions if it were 2 different days. One day is the way to go.

This is hard for me to say, but they need to get a better announcer. I've done college meets where they bring in professional announcers that can do it flawlessly with little prep. The gentleman doing it now stumbles with it all and has wrong information and seems to glow about some teams and has little to say about others. I know it's not easy and I'm sure he is doing his best, but that needs to be better.

Like I said before, if you just plop down in a spot and give in to watching like your are at home on the couch, it's much better.
 
I did this again. Duals:St X 27, Mason 28; Woodridge 29,St X 26; Mason 26, Woodridge 29

Tri-meet Mason 40, St X 41, Woodridge 42
 
  • Like
Reactions: VFL
Only issue we really had was that when we pulled in, they stopped our bus just inside Gate A and said "we are sorry, but you are going to have to unload here and your athletes will have to walk up" Not a huge deal, but it was quite a long walk with our tent, walls, and our gear. Just not ideal to not have a plan for ALL of the buses to drop off and park.
 
JAVMAN83 said:
They darned near did it! Kudos to the SW Ohio teams (sorry for the natural bias :) ). From the pictures, looks like everything went well at the meet? Any problems?
Click to expand...
Yes. The southwest had a good day. Took all four podium spots in D1 and the boys D3 title. The Cincinnati districts accounted for all but one of those.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top