Northwest Ohio Realignment

CC Track Fan said:
What we are seeing is not many parents want to pay a lot of money for their kids to go to school with mostly voucher kids.
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I don't think it's got much to do with the voucher kids. It's more the cause of the shifting demographics in the area. If you looked at attendance numbers for catholic churches in the area over the same time frame, they'd probably show a similar if not worse result. There's simply not as many practicing catholics in the area as their used to be, and significantly less that are willing to pay tuition for the same level of education they could receive at Perrysburg or Anthony Wayne.
 
BirdDog10 said:
I don't think it's got much to do with the voucher kids. It's more the cause of the shifting demographics in the area. If you looked at attendance numbers for catholic churches in the area over the same time frame, they'd probably show a similar if not worse result. There's simply not as many practicing catholics in the area as their used to be, and significantly less that are willing to pay tuition for the same level of education they could receive at Perrysburg or Anthony Wayne.
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Certainly that is part of it but doesn't explain the much bigger drop at TCC even after adding so many more voucher kids than the other big Toledo privates. Just look at all the other sports outside of Football and B-ball the teams/participation is terrible. Around 10 years ago TCC was state qualifying level in cross country the last few years can't even find 5 kids to run the races.
 
CC Track Fan said:
Certainly that is part of it but doesn't explain the much bigger drop at TCC even after adding so many more voucher kids than the other big Toledo privates. Just look at all the other sports outside of Football and B-ball the teams/participation is terrible. Around 10 years ago TCC was state qualifying level in cross country the last few years can't even find 5 kids to run the races.
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They have a major problem on the horizon as they cannot rely exclusively on voucher kids. The voucher covers roughly $8,150 (the state upped it last year) and depending on the school's available resources (endowments), and most importantly how many full tuition payers they have, you are looking at an extra $2,000-$6,000 per kid that must come from somewhere. This is why schools like CC are so selective (towards athletes). They cannot afford kids who do not offer anything in return. Central is also an old building with lots of needs. Show up to a football game Friday night and you will find trash in the stands from previous weeks and I am told the Sullivan Center is starting to look shabby. Upkeep costs money but is on the bottom of the totem pole in terms of priority at this point.

Of the Catholic schools St. Francis has fared the best, which I believe is due directly to their country club sports and proximity to UT for honors classes.
 
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FremontKeith said:
I'd say Ross was close to 700 when I was there, a long long time ago. Now, the Little Giants will be DIII. Times change.
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Is football doing the 64 per division in 1 and 2? At 393 I wouldn't imagine they'd be D3 yet under the current alignment, although they'd certainly be among the 5-10 smallest D2s.

I feel you though. Defiance was D2 up until I was in high school and now if they go with the smaller D1 AND D2 we'll likely be D4.
 
irish_buffalo said:
They have a major problem on the horizon as they cannot rely exclusively on voucher kids. The voucher covers roughly $8,150 (the state upped it last year) and depending on the school's available resources (endowments), and most importantly how many full tuition payers they have, you are looking at an extra $2,000-$6,000 per kid that must come from somewhere. This is why schools like CC are so selective (towards athletes). They cannot afford kids who do not offer anything in return. Central is also an old building with lots of needs. Show up to a football game Friday night and you will find trash in the stands from previous weeks and I am told the Sullivan Center is starting to look shabby. Upkeep costs money but is on the bottom of the totem pole in terms of priority at this point.

Of the Catholic schools St. Francis has fared the best, which I believe is due directly to their country club sports and proximity to UT for honors classe
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Just my opinion, but I believe open enrollment also greatly contributed to declining parochial school enrollments. Meaning: if a family did not want to attend a TPS school, the only alternative used to be attending a parochial. But now, they also could choose to attend a suburban hs or even a charter school . There has been a significant migration from the large urban public schools to suburban ones. In my opinion thats exactly what the state was going for when it enacted vouchers and open enrollment rules. Getting kids away from underperforming and unfixable urban, public schools. This isn't a Toledo thing....its been happening statewide.
 
Maple_City_Fan said:
Ross at 393 amazes me. There were 625 when I attended, and probably higher when Keith attended, but I'll let him verify
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Same thing has happened in Lima. When I graduated from senior high in the late 90s the 9-12 enrollment was just a tick below 1,400. Now the enrollment is hovering around 1,000. Some years below, some above. Lima hit the skids enrollment wise pretty quick in the 00s but has leveled off it seems in the last 10 years. I'm sure the same is true for Defiance, Mansfield, Sandusky, etc...
 
Bitter Pine Sitter said:
Just my opinion, but I believe open enrollment also greatly contributed to declining parochial school enrollments. Meaning: if a family did not want to attend a TPS school, the only alternative used to be attending a parochial. But now, they also could choose to attend a suburban hs or even a charter school . There has been a significant migration from the large urban public schools to suburban ones. In my opinion thats exactly what the state was going for when it enacted vouchers and open enrollment rules. Getting kids away from underperforming and unfixable urban, public schools. This isn't a Toledo thing....its been happening statewide.
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Suburbanization, more lay staff in parochial schools, more competition from charters in urban areas, etc... have all probably equated to the current situation involving parochial schools. And yes, not just a Toledo thing.
 
scbuckeye99 said:
Same thing has happened in Lima. When I graduated from senior high in the late 90s the 9-12 enrollment was just a tick below 1,400. Now the enrollment is hovering around 1,000. Some years below, some above. Lima hit the skids enrollment wise pretty quick in the 00s but has leveled off it seems in the last 10 years. I'm sure the same is true for Defiance, Mansfield, Sandusky, etc...
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A lot of the kids that went to these schools back then are now raising families in the Olentangy’s and Dublin’s of the world.
 
scbuckeye99 said:
Same thing has happened in Lima. When I graduated from senior high in the late 90s the 9-12 enrollment was just a tick below 1,400. Now the enrollment is hovering around 1,000. Some years below, some above. Lima hit the skids enrollment wise pretty quick in the 00s but has leveled off it seems in the last 10 years. I'm sure the same is true for Defiance, Mansfield, Sandusky, etc...
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Maumee is the same way, went from classes in the 260-280 range in the 00s to 160-180 range now.
 
I know this is a football forum but I saw CC beat Woodward 65-13(?) yesterday in their sectional match-up. Waite is not any better. In fact the Waite girls managed to score 2 whole points against AW in their Sectional match-up (80-2?). Manny May is still Waite's coach and he has a state finals game under his belt so it isn't coaching, it is lack of talent. The fact of the matter is brain drain is very real.
 
ToledoGuy said:
Maumee is the same way, went from classes in the 260-280 range in the 00s to 160-180 range now.
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Why has that happened in Maumee? Thats a massive drop. Its always been landlocked, so that isn't a new development. The housing stock *appears* to be ample and competitive w Pburg and AW, however, there haven't been many new housing starts in the district. I suppose thats a contributing factor. Ive always held Maumee as a city in high regard (current traffic nightmares aside). They have good facilities, its safe, offers plenty of employment opportunities. Has Maumee's population just gotten old?
 
933York said:
A lot of the kids that went to these schools back then are now raising families in the Olentangy’s and Dublin’s of the world.
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They most certainly are. Im in my mid 50s and the number of people I graduated with that have moved to the Columbus are is almost jaw dropping. Perrysburg, Sylvania, AW is to Toledo is as Columbus is to the entire Toledo Area. Cbus area growth has been astounding the last 30 yrs, with no end in sight.
 
Bitter Pine Sitter said:
Why has that happened in Maumee? Thats a massive drop. Its always been landlocked, so that isn't a new development. The housing stock *appears* to be ample and competitive w Pburg and AW, however, there haven't been many new housing starts in the district. I suppose thats a contributing factor. Ive always held Maumee as a city in high regard (current traffic nightmares aside). They have good facilities, its safe, offers plenty of employment opportunities. Has Maumee's population just gotten old?
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No one leaves Maumee so not a lot of kids being put back in the schools.
 
Toledo public had 48,697 students in 1979. They hover around 20,000 today.
There were 18,000 catholic school kids in 1979 in Lucas county. The six catholic high schools(Mccauley has since closed) at the time had 5,500 kids. Now the five catholic high schools have around 1900 kids.

Even including Perrysburg and AW's growth there are far far few kids in the Toledo metro area than there once were.
 
Trailsendcustom said:
Toledo public had 48,697 students in 1979. They hover around 20,000 today.
There were 18,000 catholic school kids in 1979 in Lucas county. The six catholic high schools(Mccauley has since closed) at the time had 5,500 kids. Now the five catholic high schools have around 1900 kids.

Even including Perrysburg and AW's growth there are far far few kids in the Toledo metro area than there once were.
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From a pure numbers standpoint, Waite, Woodward, and Scott could all merge into one school.

NW Ohio population has stagnated. The Toledo MSA population is virtually the same today as in 1970. But the people have moved south and west and have gotten older. The median age in the Toledo MSA is currently 39. In Ohio in 1970, it was 27 (I couldn't find Toledo's quickly).

The number of current schools is based on the populations of yesteryear and do not reflect current trends. The number of babies born in 1969 dropped 20% from just 12 years earlier (182,839 from 229,792). The number of babies born in Ohio in 2021 was 129,791.

Metro Toledo needs to work on attracting new residents and those current residents need to start having babies, quickly.

As for schools, it will be agonizing for any school to close. No school will want to be the first to go. Thus all will fight tooth and nail to stay open.

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1970:
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en.wikipedia.org

Toledo metropolitan area - Wikipedia

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Census profile: Toledo, OH Metro Area

Census data for Toledo, OH Metro Area (pop. 640,384), including age, race, sex, income, poverty, marital status, education and more.
censusreporter.org censusreporter.org

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www2.census.gov
www.marchofdimes.org

Fertility rate: Ohio, 2012-2022

Sustained low birth rates may indicate that the population is aging; sustained high birth rates may predict a younger population. Birth rate data and trends can tell a story.
www.marchofdimes.org www.marchofdimes.org
 
CCHS93 said:
From a pure numbers standpoint, Waite, Woodward, and Scott could all merge into one school.

NW Ohio population has stagnated. The Toledo MSA population is virtually the same today as in 1970. But the people have moved south and west and have gotten older. The median age in the Toledo MSA is currently 39. In Ohio in 1970, it was 27 (I couldn't find Toledo's quickly).

The number of current schools is based on the populations of yesteryear and do not reflect current trends. The number of babies born in 1969 dropped 20% from just 12 years earlier (182,839 from 229,792). The number of babies born in Ohio in 2021 was 129,791.

Metro Toledo needs to work on attracting new residents and those current residents need to start having babies, quickly.

As for schools, it will be agonizing for any school to close. No school will want to be the first to go. Thus all will fight tooth and nail to stay open.

View attachment 55126View attachment 55127

1970:
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1970:
View attachment 55129View attachment 55130




en.wikipedia.org

Toledo metropolitan area - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Census profile: Toledo, OH Metro Area

Census data for Toledo, OH Metro Area (pop. 640,384), including age, race, sex, income, poverty, marital status, education and more.
censusreporter.org censusreporter.org

Loading…

www2.census.gov
www.marchofdimes.org

Fertility rate: Ohio, 2012-2022

Sustained low birth rates may indicate that the population is aging; sustained high birth rates may predict a younger population. Birth rate data and trends can tell a story.
www.marchofdimes.org www.marchofdimes.org
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Toledo's population pyramid is probably not much different than the rest of NW Ohio nor NE Ohio. As I mentioned to people down here in the Carolina's (huge influx of Ohioans down here over the last 20-30 years and adding). Columbus and Cincinnati are the only growing urban and metro areas in the state. And that's most likely due to migration and not the birth rate.

When I graduated from UT in 2003 my options were to sub for 2 years and maybe something would open up in TPS, Maumee, Sylvania, Oregon, etc.... OR I could get a teaching job in the Carolina's over the phone. Rather than role the dice on waiting I took my chances on South Carolina. Charleston, SC might as well be Ohio Junior at this point.
 

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