Joe Eitel: Please explain teams on the edge
- Thread starter Tiger75
- Start date
simkon
Well-known member
With a win that team could conceivably be as high as the 11 seed or could miss the playoffs. With a loss that team is going to miss the playoffs no matter what. So Holy Name is not eliminated from playoff contention and has a chance of making the playoffs if they win this week.
Correct....the wide range of possibilities is because the results of all of their previous opponents games in week 10 also figure into their potential ranking
Shelbyrr11
Active member
To add to this, these possible seeding outcomes are not based whatsoever on the likelihood of the outcomes. Even if a 0-9 team is playing a 9-0 team, there are still two possible results to that game that are accounted for in terms of Harbin point generation (no idea if Joe includes ties in this). It's not an endorsement of what could happen so much as it is a statement of "there does exist a combination of wins/losses during Week 10 in Ohio that could make this team an #11, 12, 13, etc."
Drew Pasteur is the one who applies some logic to the games. His seeding possibilities take into consideration that the 0-9 team is unlikely to beat the 9-0 team, so you will see his seeding probabilities be much more constrained to what is feasible. If a team can only achieve an #11 seed if a different game involving 0-9 team beats a 9-0 team, Drew won't assign a very high likelihood towards it.
Both dudes are doing the right thing, they are simply answering different questions.
Drew Pasteur is the one who applies some logic to the games. His seeding possibilities take into consideration that the 0-9 team is unlikely to beat the 9-0 team, so you will see his seeding probabilities be much more constrained to what is feasible. If a team can only achieve an #11 seed if a different game involving 0-9 team beats a 9-0 team, Drew won't assign a very high likelihood towards it.
Both dudes are doing the right thing, they are simply answering different questions.
You're right.....but Pasteur's rankings and projections have nothing to do with whether or not a team makes the playoffs or where they are seeded. The question was what do Eitel's projections mean. His numbers aren't based on "what he thinks". They take into account every possible scenario for a week 10 game for a particular team and where those results could place a team when it comes to their final ranking in the region.
Calif_Eagle
Well-known member
Ties were always accounted for in the original Harbin System. We don't have them anymore much, unless it's lightning or other inclement weather, but I am sure Joe Eitel still accounts for them when they occur. He probably also has a way to account for any out-of-state ties, either by an Ohio team tying a game to the East, or a team you beat from OOS that has a tie(s) on their record. As far as I know, he still uses the modified (no Level 3) Harbin System to perform his rankings.
Last in state tie I recall was Warren Harding and Shaw. Lightning called the game at Mollenkopf at halftime and Shaw refused to come back the next day and also (I believe) to resume play in East Cleveland, which I believe was offered by WGH to finish the game. (I'm sure Shaw's refusals were because of a very tight Shaw-East Cleveland Public Schools budget and not out of "fear" of a loss, or trying to "steal" some Harbin points for a tie.)
I am SURE there have been other "lightning or weather" Ohio ties since, this is just the last one I recall.
EDIT: Just went to the Ohio Football Database and that tie above was 24-24 in 2009! Time sure flies... I can't believe it was 14 years ago. Get to those bucket lists folks...! Damn...!
Last edited:
The Fantastic 50 site absolutely projects where teams will be seeded.
Mr. Slippery
Well-known member
This. Both are good at what they do. Neither is trying to do what the other is doing.
fantastic50
Active member
Region 13 projected seeds (a possible outcome, without week 10 upsets) http://www.fantastic50.net/r13proj.html
Region 13 seeding probabilities (with ranges of seeds for each team) http://www.fantastic50.net/r13seed.html
From the Holy Name team page, if the Green Wave wins, they have a 79% chance of getting in and would likely end up the #16 seed, facing Canton South in the first round. To get that playoff berth, Holy Name needs a win, plus losses by both Hubbard and Warrensville Heights, and either a loss by Field or some other games going their way (such as a Lakewood win.)
Region 13 seeding probabilities (with ranges of seeds for each team) http://www.fantastic50.net/r13seed.html
From the Holy Name team page, if the Green Wave wins, they have a 79% chance of getting in and would likely end up the #16 seed, facing Canton South in the first round. To get that playoff berth, Holy Name needs a win, plus losses by both Hubbard and Warrensville Heights, and either a loss by Field or some other games going their way (such as a Lakewood win.)
Shelbyrr11
Active member
I should clarify, my statement about ties was based on whether Joe includes them in his possible seeding projections. If so, it would include a scenario where every single game in ohio during Week 10 ends in a tie. It probably isn't that much more work to have that calculated out in his system, but it does seem extreme to have that factored in.
I know in 2011 or 2012, Napoleon tied with Archbishop Alter after lightning ended the game after (I believe) just one play, the kickoff. It counted as a tie, but only by the tiniest of technicalities. Similar to your example with Shaw and WGH, a Saturday game would have involved a ton of driving for Napoleon on back to back days. They likely didn't care to spend 12ish hours on a bus over the course of two days.
The Dock
Persona Non Grata
One other ‘tie’ plausibility that can affect the computer points is if an Ohio team is playing in a state that has ties, e.g. West Virginia.
This happened in 2019 with Conotton Valley tying Weirton (WV) Madonna on the road. The teams that defeated Conotton Valley received half of the L2 value that would’ve been received had CV defeated Madonna.
Maple_City_Fan
Well-known member
2012, and if I'm not mistaken, Napoleon was Division III AP Poll winner. Wildcats essentially was taken to the shed by the eventual State Runner-Up, Bellevue Redmen in Regional Title game
Did you ever play or have kids that played? My guess is that most of the boys that really love it, especially the seniors, would give anything for 1 more game. Also, the running clock games for the higher seeds may be the only time some of those back up seniors ever get on the field. To say they got on the field and got to play during their state championship run, is a cool story to tell the kids down the road. There are more benefits than not.It’s sad that some want to get in the Watered down playoffs and Most will get a Running clock at seeds 9-16. But enjoy the moment
Mr. Slippery
Well-known member
Joe Eitel must've caught wind of this thread and didn't like it b/c he added this disclaimer to his pages:
Top 16 teams following week 10 qualify for playoffs
*** The Current Rank column IS NOT a projected seed, please do not interpret it as such while Friday and Saturday scores are still being entered. Use the 'Possible Seed Ranges' column instead - when enough game results have been entered, the possible seed range for a team will be replaced with either a single number (which will be the expected unofficial seed) or 'out' if a team becomes eliminated.
Top 16 teams following week 10 qualify for playoffs
*** The Current Rank column IS NOT a projected seed, please do not interpret it as such while Friday and Saturday scores are still being entered. Use the 'Possible Seed Ranges' column instead - when enough game results have been entered, the possible seed range for a team will be replaced with either a single number (which will be the expected unofficial seed) or 'out' if a team becomes eliminated.
reganaustinjames
Well-known member
As explained earlier on this thread:
- Drew Pasteur makes his prognostications on statistical analyses and likelihoods
- Joe Eitel's seed ranges allow for all possibilities and update as he enters the scores into his supercomputer, no matter how remote remaining possibilities may seem.
Both have incredible value.
reganaustinjames
Well-known member
You must never have been in this situation. Neither team would want to play in a game like this, ESPECIALLY the team that knows they're going to be steamrolled; they just want the season to end.
Yeah. Played and coached pretty much every thing. Sick of the trophies
for everyone. That’s for grades 3-8. Varsity football is so watered down and it can’t be much fun for daddy’s boy to play 1 more game, get beat up 1 last time and lose by 50. It’s HS sports, not biddy sports. It’s time to move on to the next sport after a Bad season. It’s a moneymaking joke !Calif_Eagle
Well-known member
I would think Joe Eitel misses no possibilities lol. I bet he has potential ties (no matter how rare these days) and all possibilities built into his Harbin Ratings program for the State.
My guess re: that old Shaw tie game is that their budget didn't allow for 2 trips or for opening up Shaw Stadium for a partial game had WGH gone over to East Cleveland to finish it up.
Calif_Eagle
Well-known member
Definitely, I "liked" your post. I mentioned OOS ties in my original post, and when I said "ties with teams to the East" I should have been more specific. What I meant mainly was teams in Eastern states. Also applies to Western states, of course, but being NEO centric, I was thinking of PA, WVA, MI (to the Northwest), NY, NJ, DE, MD and DC mainly.