Division I boys distance odds state meet 2018 (for entertainment purposes only)

C

claynation

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BOYS 1600M

Dustin Horter (Lakota East): 1/4
Lucas Bons (Dublin Coffman): 8/1
Ryan Johnston (Lexington): 10/1
Gabe Szalay (Wadsworth): 20/1
Andrew Tighe (Hilliard Davidson): 20/1
Evan Manley (Hudson): 40/1
Elliott Cook (Dublin Jerome): 40/1

BOYS 800M

Nathan Cousino (Whitmer): 5/2
Nick Miller (Wadsworth): 4/1
Arjun Jha (Thomas Worthington): 11/2
Ashwin Briggs (Pickerington North): 11/2
Malachi McGill (Hilliard Darby): 7/1
Lucas Bons (Dublin Coffman): 9/1
Noah Harper (Copley): 19/1
Jack Mott (Strongsville): 19/1
Tyler King (Olentangy Orange): 24/1

BOYS 3200M

Dustin Horter (Lakota East): 1/1
Matt Scrape (Pickerington Central): 5/1
Conant Smith (Middletown): 9/1
Giovanni Copploe (Canfield): 10/1
Andy Payne (Thomas Worthington): 12/1
Josh Hill (Steele): 12/1
Vincent Mauri (Howland): 14/1
Adam Beucler (Hudson): 14/1
 
 
I agree that Malachi is still getting into shape. Even more so Arjun Jha. I have watched him run at the OCC, District and Regional meets and he is getting stronger every time. There is a good chance Bons won't run the 800 if our 4x400 gets to the finals.
 
mathking said:
There is a good chance Bons won't run the 800 if our 4x400 gets to the finals.
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I thought this would be the case. Running the 1600 and 800 before the 4x400 would have an impact on his split.

The weather looks like it is going to cool down some so that should help all the runners trying to double or even triple.
 
In the 1600, those are some generous odds for Horter. I just think he’s so much ahead of everybody else.

In the 800, Cousino has got to be the favorite, like you said, but I could see Miller or McGill winning it.

In the 32, if the day goes like I think it will, I’m taking Conant Smith. By then, Horter would have either been sitting in the heat all day or would have left by now. Wouldn’t be surprised if Horter runs, and if he does, I’d take him.
 
Rohbino said:
If the weather is like it was this past weekend, oppressively hot & humid, I predict that Horter will scratch the 3200. If that holds, expect a duel between Scrape & Smith for the title.

Overall your picks look good. I like McGill's & Bons' chances more than you do for the 800. I mentioned elsewhere before that I believe that McGill is still rounding into form. He played football this past fall whereas the other 800 runners ran XC. They started with more base than McGill. McGill will be ready this weekend and I would expect him to drop a sub-1:52. That won't be enough to win but a top 3 finish is feasible. The 800 is going to be a great race. I would have rather seen Horter in that vs the 3200.

In the 3200 I also like Copploe's and Mauri's chances a bit more than you do.
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I don't expect Horter to scratch the 3200, unless he's feeling unexpectedly depleted following the 1600. I believe his goal is to win both events and that, unlike last year, he will start the 3200. However, I did consider the possibility of a scratch when calculating my odds.

I would LOVE Bons's chances in the 800 if he scratched the 1600. If Bons ran the 800 fresh, I'd put him right with Cousino and Miller. But I'm not sure a tired Bons (coming off what will surely be a fast 1600) can beat a fresh Jha, Briggs, or McGill, to say nothing of Cousino and Miller. Plus, his coach is on here saying he may scratch the 800 if the Dublin Coffman 4x400 reaches finals, so if anything I should probably lower his odds.

I agree that McGill is on a roll and that his upward trajectory should continue in Columbus, but I'm not confident he can make up enough ground on Cousino, Miller, and Briggs. Jha is an interesting wild card in the 800, and if I were betting on my own odds, I think I'd like his the most.

Horter in the 800 would have been awesome, but I respect his decision to attempt the 1600/3200 double. It's more impressive and if he wins both, he's inarguably the greatest distance runner in Ohio HS history. (That may already be the case, but this state meet will be an opportunity for him to truly cement his legacy as the GOAT.)
 
Qualifer17 said:
In the 1600, those are some generous odds for Horter. I just think he’s so much ahead of everybody else.

In the 800, Cousino has got to be the favorite, like you said, but I could see Miller or McGill winning it.

In the 32, if the day goes like I think it will, I’m taking Conant Smith. By then, Horter would have either been sitting in the heat all day or would have left by now. Wouldn’t be surprised if Horter runs, and if he does, I’d take him.
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You think 1/4 is generous? I guess I could have gone 1/5 or 1/6, but I felt that 1/4 marked him as the prohibitive favorite. This isn't like D2 or D3 where the studs get a cakewalk to a state title (Bistritz in 2016, Chad Johnson this year) ... he's still going to have to have a good day to beat Bons.

I think you guys are mistaken to expect Horter to scratch the 3200. My sources indicate that it's very, very likely that he will start.

Conant Smith is one of the competitors I'm most intrigued by here. I'm really not sure what to expect from him in the 3200. Given his sterling resume in XC, you would expect him to be more accomplished on the track than he is. This is certainly a big opportunity for him.
 
For those liking McGill and Jha's chances is it because you think can PR by 2 or 3 seconds since there PR are 1:52.80 and 1:53.73 or is it because you don't think Cousino and Miller can repeat their sub 1:51 times from last week.

One other thing to consider even if Cousino/Miller can't repeat last weeks times they still have a second + to make up on Briggs from last week.

IMO the D1 800 looks like it will be the best race of the entire meet since a good case can be made for 5 (6 if Bons runs it fresh) to win it.
 
CC Track Fan said:
For those liking McGill and Jha's chances is it because you think can PR by 2 or 3 seconds since there PR are 1:52.80 and 1:53.73 or is it because you don't think Cousino and Miller can repeat their sub 1:51 times from last week.

One other thing to consider even if Cousino/Miller can't repeat last weeks times they still have a second + to make up on Briggs from last week.

IMO the D1 800 looks like it will be the best race of the entire meet since a good case can be made for 5 (6 if Bons runs it fresh) to win it.
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It's a combination of thinking Cousino and Miller won't improve on their regional performances and that, everything goes right for Arjun or Malachi, they are capable of beating those two. (I'd favor Arjun over Malachi, though, as my odds show.)

However, I don't put a ton of stock into the fact that Malachi is the defending champ. Last year's D1 boys 800 was pretty weak, with all of the big guns in the 1600. This year it looks like the 800 will be the best race of the meet, because everyone (except Bons, apparently) is conceding the 1600 to Horter.
 
I agree with Rohbino that proclaiming Horter as the GOAT if he doubles is probably not warranted. One of the? Sure. But others have won that double. Just look at Fry’s resume (and I think cases can be made for any of the runners Rohbino listed) I don’t think you can argue that Horter would be clearly the greatest even if he wins the double. Not that you wouldn’t be able to make a case for Horter. I think his case is made stronger by the strength of this class he has dominated so far.

Just as a note, Arjun’s open 800 PR is not nearly as fast as his split from the 4x800 last year, which was 1:50. He is in the same boat as some others, never having run a late season 800 fresh (until this year when coming off of injury). I still think Cousino and Miller are the clear favorites.
 
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claynation said:
BOYS 1600M

Dustin Horter (Lakota East): 1/4
Lucas Bons (Dublin Coffman): 8/1
Ryan Johnston (Lexington): 10/1
Gabe Szalay (Wadsworth): 20/1
Andrew Tighe (Hilliard Davidson): 20/1
Evan Manley (Hudson): 40/1
Elliott Cook (Dublin Jerome): 40/1

BOYS 800M

Nathan Cousino (Whitmer): 5/2
Nick Miller (Wadsworth): 4/1
Arjun Jha (Thomas Worthington): 11/2
Ashwin Briggs (Pickerington North): 11/2
Malachi McGill (Hilliard Darby): 7/1
Lucas Bons (Dublin Coffman): 9/1
Noah Harper (Copley): 19/1
Jack Mott (Strongsville): 19/1
Tyler King (Olentangy Orange): 24/1

BOYS 3200M

Dustin Horter (Lakota East): 1/1
Matt Scrape (Pickerington Central): 5/1
Conant Smith (Middletown): 9/1
Giovanni Copploe (Canfield): 10/1
Andy Payne (Thomas Worthington): 12/1
Josh Hill (Steele): 12/1
Vincent Mauri (Howland): 14/1
Adam Beucler (Hudson): 14/1
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Conant Smith is ranked too high. Conant Smith from XC and last year would be a solid #2 but he came into May off an injury and is not the same runner from XC last year.

He was third in the Regional meet and if you look at results only 2 seconds from not qualifying to the state meet.
 
Qualifer17 said:
In the 1600, those are some generous odds for Horter. I just think he’s so much ahead of everybody else.

In the 800, Cousino has got to be the favorite, like you said, but I could see Miller or McGill winning it.

In the 32, if the day goes like I think it will, I’m taking Conant Smith. By then, Horter would have either been sitting in the heat all day or would have left by now. Wouldn’t be surprised if Horter runs, and if he does, I’d take him.
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Horter wins the 800,1600 or 3200. Whatever he enters is his.
 
EuclidandViren said:
Conant Smith is ranked too high. Conant Smith from XC and last year would be a solid #2 but he came into May off an injury and is not the same runner from XC last year.

He was third in the Regional meet and if you look at results only 2 seconds from not qualifying to the state meet.
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Admittedly, the biggest factors in my odds for Conant were his reputation and prior accomplishments in XC as opposed to anything he's done this track season. But he's such a phenomenal talent that I felt obligated to put him there. He was top 10 at NXN and took Horter to the line in November. I think you have to respect that and put him at the top of the heap after Horter and Scrape, although it's possible he's still just not ready to perform at his best.
 
You guys are crazy if you think a victorious 1600/3200 double wouldn't cement Horter as the Ohio HS distance running GOAT. His resume would be peerless: state titles, fast times (and state 1600 record), range from 800-5k, and dominating Division I at a time when Ohio HS distance running has never been deeper or more competitive.
 
How would his resume be clearly superior to Scott Fry’s? State titles in XC and track, a 1600/3200 double with fast times as a senior. National champion.
 
mathking said:
How would his resume be clearly superior to Scott Fry’s? State titles in XC and track, a 1600/3200 double with fast times as a senior. National champion.
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First of all, because the depth of competition nowadays is so far ahead of what Fry had to deal with. When viewed through this lens, Horter's individual state victories become more impressive. Look at the state 1600 results from last year, for instance. 8th place was 4:12.20. 4:12.67 didn't make the podium. That depth of talent in Ohio is unprecedented.

How would Horter's resume not be clearly superior to Fry's? He'd have faster times in the 800, 1600, 3200, and XC 5k. Two state titles in XC (against waaaaay better fields than Fry had to face), three state titles in outdoor track (assuming he successfully pulls off the 1600/3200 this year), the state record in the 1600, national indoor mile champ, and the favorite to win the Brooks PR mile this year which is, in effect, the national outdoor championship at that distance. And the 1:50 800 is so far and away better than anything Fry did at that distance.

It makes my head hurt that anyone could compare those resumes and not come to the conclusion that Horter had the superior career.
 
It would be pretty incredible for Horter to pull off the 1600/3200 double. If anyone can do it, it would be him, but both fields are solid, so he will likely have to work hard in the 1600 for the win, and he might be going for a meet record anyway. The time between is just a tad more than an hour, so that works against him when running the 3200 against fresh runners.

As far as overall best runner in Ohio, Horter beats Fry in the 800 and the 1600, but Fry also ran the 3200 in under 8:50 and was the national champion in CC as mathking said. Also, Scott had all those state titles too, and while Horter has had some unreal competition, perhaps Fry would have been even better if he had people to push him. Tough call, but I wouldn't just give it to Horter if he double wins on Saturday...good argument to make for him, but it's not a given...unless he drops some unreal times.
 
claynation said:
How would Horter's resume not be clearly superior to Fry's? He'd have faster times in the 800, 1600, 3200, and XC 5k.
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Did Horter run faster than 8:46?

What about Fry's 14:23 on the track?

Is time the main factor in cross country, even with different courses? Fry won the Kinney (now Footlocker) Nationals.

The eras are different. Scott Fry has some meet records from meets that were held the same weekend. Meaning he ran a Friday night invitational, set meet records, and ran again Saturday (the next day), setting more meet records.

Horter is having a terrific season to finish an outstanding career, this is no knock against him. But I don't see the evidence that makes him "clearly" better than Fry.
 
He's already dropped some unreal times, LoveCrossCountry! Were 4:03 (state record) in the 1600 and 1:50 not sufficient for you? And his 3200 is faster than Fry, too.

You guys sound like the people that won't entertain the idea that LeBron is the GOAT over MJ!

Horter has it all. Fast times, a state record, an array of state titles, a national title (with potentially another to come), unbelievable consistency (his 2017 XC season was simply remarkable on a week-to-week basis), and he's done it all in the most competitive, deepest, and flat-out best era in Ohio HS running history. The graduating classes of 2106, 2017, and 2018 were some of the best Ohio has ever seen (AGAIN- 4:12.67 didn't make the podium in Horter's 2017 1600 victory), and Horter has taken all comers. Winning the 1600 and 3200 this weekend would SURELY cement him as the GOAT.

Apologies for the derailment of this thread. Of course, we are here to discuss my ever-popular odds! 4x8 coming soon!
 
This is Yappi, so this hardly counts as derailing a thread. And it is certainly a more interesting and respectful conversation than you generally find in this kind of thread in other forums here.

If Horter wins the 1600 and the 3200 he certainly deserves to be considered among the greatest. I have not read anyone saying otherwise. What we are saying is that his being clearly the greatest is not, well, clear. Assuming he wins the 1600 and 3200 he would have pretty much the same set of state titles as Fry. Two XC, two 1600 and a 3200. Fry's 4:08/8:46 double at the state meet in 1985 was pretty beastly. What if Horter wins in 4:08 and 9:15 this year because of the heat? Is he still clearly better? While I agree that this year's senior class is amazing Fry didn't exactly run in an era where the cupboards were dry in Ohio. In 1984, after his win in the 1600, he lost to Dan Franek by less than a second in the 3200. Fry won Kinney in XC and he won Golden West in the 5000. And I seem to recall another national meet 5K championship as well. So Horter has faster 1600 and 800 times. Now recall that Fry's 8:46 was at the state meet in the middle of the day after a 4:08.03 1600. I ran against Fry and coached against Horter. Fry was every bit as dominant in XC as Horter.

And note, we are only talking about Fry. What about Scharshu, Zishka and Pittman? (They ran in the same era.) What about Jeff See?

As a side note, my middle of the day comment was not intended to throw shade at Dustin or any of the other runners who have run super fast times in the evening. I love the fact that people are setting up meets in the evening with good competition to allow for really fast times. But there is a difference between running the fast times in the middle of the day on a hot day and in the evening. Fry's 4:08/8:46 was in the day and at the state meet.
 
You know, I can easily envision a scenario where Horter wins the 1600 and not the 3200 and a couple years from now I am arguing that he is the greatest in Ohio HS history.
 
Mark Croghan! Anyone honestly question whether a 3 time Olympian and 5 time American champion couldn't have stepped it up had he needed to?
 
Fastest times I ever ran were all in loses or races were no one was really trying to beat me or doing anything to counter what I was doing. The races I lost and had really good times, I was sort of along for the ride and was pulled through to a time. My best races and wins were not necessarily my best times, so going off times and not wins to say who might be the best is not how I would look at it. 5 wins are better than 2 wins to me. Two of the best HS races I ever saw for distance races was Lowell Terrell (sp) 1983 cross country state meet and Franek beating Fry in the 3200 in 84. Terrell also won the 3200 in similar fashion as the Franek Fry race later in the day with a slower time, but nail biting win. When he put it together, Terrell was as good as it got.
 
claynation said:
He's already dropped some unreal times, LoveCrossCountry! Were 4:03 (state record) in the 1600 and 1:50 not sufficient for you? And his 3200 is faster than Fry, too.

You guys sound like the people that won't entertain the idea that LeBron is the GOAT over MJ!

Horter has it all. Fast times, a state record, an array of state titles, a national title (with potentially another to come), unbelievable consistency (his 2017 XC season was simply remarkable on a week-to-week basis), and he's done it all in the most competitive, deepest, and flat-out best era in Ohio HS running history. The graduating classes of 2106, 2017, and 2018 were some of the best Ohio has ever seen (AGAIN- 4:12.67 didn't make the podium in Horter's 2017 1600 victory), and Horter has taken all comers. Winning the 1600 and 3200 this weekend would SURELY cement him as the GOAT.

Apologies for the derailment of this thread. Of course, we are here to discuss my ever-popular odds! 4x8 coming soon!
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Horter has range over Fry, but Fry actually had a faster 3200 than Horter (8:46.70), and his 5000 CC time was faster too (14:50) though I realize it's tough to compare CC times. Fry ran that time at the Kinney CC meet to win by 17 seconds over John Sence. Scott's 800 PR was 1:57. Very slow for a guy of his abilities as the distance grows.

Horter is great, and for sure in the conversation as one of the best ever, but I'm not sure he for sure is the best. Andrew Jordan still has a faster 3200 time than Horter (8:46.72) and was a national champion also, still holds the CC state course record time, and as of today still holds the D1 3200 state meet record time. Jordan never attempted a double, but Horter hasn't done that yet either. Last year he didn't run the 3200; granted it was hot. Will be interesting to see if Dustin goes for the double tomorrow. Pretty hard thing to do against a decent 3200 group. Not saying he can't do it, but it's not a given.

I would throw in at least one more name from the past that needs to stay in the conversation, and that is Alan Scharsu - 8:44 for the full 2 miles.
 
I saw Fry run at least one relay split a lot faster than 1:57. And I know he ran some good 4x400 legs. But I keep coming back to the 4:08 - 8:46 double. Gotta think that he could have done either one faster running a single race alone in the evening. If Horter wins both races tomorrow he will certainly be in the discussion as the best, but again I don’t see his just winning both as making him the clear and uncontested best.
 
What is Horter's PR for the 3000m?
Scott Fry won the 3000m at the prestigious Golden West meet in 8:08.1, which (at the time) barely missed Steve Prefontaine's national prep record by one-tenth of a second.
 
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LoveCrossCountry said:
Horter has range over Fry, but Fry actually had a faster 3200 than Horter (8:46.70), and his 5000 CC time was faster too (14:50) though I realize it's tough to compare CC times. Fry ran that time at the Kinney CC meet to win by 17 seconds over John Sence.
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I thought Sence took 2nd to Kennedy, at Kinney Nats?
 
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