Dayton D1 Tourney.....

vamp2syd

Well-known member
no talk .... what is going on here....

These are my picks.

Dayton 1: Lebanon
Dayton 2: Miamisburg
Dayton 3: Centerville

surprise team... Beavercreek.... I can see them winning two games before getting blasted by Centerville.
 

vamp2syd

Well-known member
How good is Lebanon? I think Elks are best team in Dayton but could also see all Dayton teams done in districts
They are like Miamisburg and split with them on the season. They should have no trouble with Franklin. On the other side it is Wayne's to lose but unfortunately Wayne seems to play to the level of competition. They let another late 4th qtr lead get away losing to Centerville in the final seconds a game that they were up by 7 with a chance to extend the lead. If Wayne can play a 4 quarter game they can beat anyone with the exception of Moeller in the region. Wayne should beat Lebanon by double digits but you got to get there first.
 

Talk some sense

Active member
They are like Miamisburg and split with them on the season. They should have no trouble with Franklin. On the other side it is Wayne's to lose but unfortunately Wayne seems to play to the level of competition. They let another late 4th qtr lead get away losing to Centerville in the final seconds a game that they were up by 7 with a chance to extend the lead. If Wayne can play a 4 quarter game they can beat anyone with the exception of Moeller in the region. Wayne should beat Lebanon by double digits but you got to get there first.
Don't be so hard on Wayne. I think all their wins are by more than 10 points except once against MBurg. So didn't really play down too far. Centerville just seems to be better and more poised in the crunch. Last night Cupps hit a cold blooded pull up to make it 61-60 Cville. Then Wayne jacked up a couple of highly contested shots before fouling Cupps who hit both. Wayne then drove the hoop to make it 63-62 and fouled. Cville hit first and missed second but got rebound. That's just wanting it more.
 

vamp2syd

Well-known member
Don't be so hard on Wayne. I think all their wins are by more than 10 points except once against MBurg. So didn't really play down too far. Centerville just seems to be better and more poised in the crunch. Last night Cupps hit a cold blooded pull up to make it 61-60 Cville. Then Wayne jacked up a couple of highly contested shots before fouling Cupps who hit both. Wayne then drove the hoop to make it 63-62 and fouled. Cville hit first and missed second but got rebound. That's just wanting it more.
If you look at most of Wayne's wins you will see that they are a 1 qtr team. In most of those wins it was 1 qtr where Wayne blew out the opponent but in the other 3 qtrs it was quite close or Wayne was outscored.

against FM.... 24-11 4th qtr in a 10 point win
NM.... 22-8 4th qtr in a 19 pt win
MB... 20-9 3rd qtr in a 10 point win
MB... 22-6 4th qtr in a 4 pt win
NM... 25-7 3rd qtr in 11 pt win
FM.... 22-4 2nd qtr in 12 pt win
BC... 19-4 2nd qtr in 10 pt win

All 4 of Wayne's losses were games they were winning in the 4th qtr and if I am not mistaken had leads with under 2 minutes left. Wayne is very capable of making noise in the tournament but it is the inconsistentency that has me thinking they have an early exit.
 

Talk some sense

Active member
If you look at most of Wayne's wins you will see that they are a 1 qtr team. In most of those wins it was 1 qtr where Wayne blew out the opponent but in the other 3 qtrs it was quite close or Wayne was outscored.

against FM.... 24-11 4th qtr in a 10 point win
NM.... 22-8 4th qtr in a 19 pt win
MB... 20-9 3rd qtr in a 10 point win
MB... 22-6 4th qtr in a 4 pt win
NM... 25-7 3rd qtr in 11 pt win
FM.... 22-4 2nd qtr in 12 pt win
BC... 19-4 2nd qtr in 10 pt win

All 4 of Wayne's losses were games they were winning in the 4th qtr and if I am not mistaken had leads with under 2 minutes left. Wayne is very capable of making noise in the tournament but it is the inconsistency that has me thinking they have an early exit.
Disagree even with using the same numbers for proof. Blowing teams out results in your subs playing their starters more minutes. They are in close games against good teams which is what a good team does - keeps it close. But Cville and St. X are really good teams, and Springfield is such a good rivalry that you never know.

So I think they can indeed have a good run in the tourney, certainly getting by Lebanon. Once you get to district finals, it's usually against good teams and you have to go grab it by the horns. Which is why they play the games.

BTW, I'm also sometimes harsher on my own teams than on other teams.
 

vamp2syd

Well-known member
Disagree even with using the same numbers for proof. Blowing teams out results in your subs playing their starters more minutes. They are in close games against good teams which is what a good team does - keeps it close. But Cville and St. X are really good teams, and Springfield is such a good rivalry that you never know.

So I think they can indeed have a good run in the tourney, certainly getting by Lebanon. Once you get to district finals, it's usually against good teams and you have to go grab it by the horns. Which is why they play the games.

BTW, I'm also sometimes harsher on my own teams than on other teams.
That would make sense if Wayne was playing sub players against other teams starters in the first half. Those big qtrs are in the 3rd and 4th. Wayne has about a 10 man rotation so unless you are doing a plus/minus statistic on each player it is hard to tell what causes this.

All 4 losses come down to one thing. Defensive rebounding..... If this team could block out better and limit the 2nd,3rd, and 4th chance points they would be undefeated.

Another thing I would like to see Wayne do is get back better on defense following a missed shot. Too many 2 on none breaks for easy baskets.

Piqua. I've seen Piqua 3 or 4 times and will watch them again tonight. No worries and should be a blow out win. Running clock in tourney may or may not get that but should easily be a 20+ win.

Northmont/Tecumseh..... Seen the Arrows twice and the Bolts several times. Northmont is all over the place with a puzzling loss to a very down Versailles and struggling with Shawnee if not for a late run would of loss that game. Northmont has played well against Wayne in both games including leading by 9 at half in the game at Wayne. To me this is a trap game for Wayne. Underdogs play differently in the tourney and possessions are limited. If Tecumseh beats Northmont expect them to take lots of time between possessions. Wayne blows out Tecumseh easily but could struggle with the Bolts or blow them out if they can get two great qtrs in. The game I think that gets Wayne is Lebanon. They got one kid that can drill a 3 from anywhere on the court. If Lebanon can get hot from beyond the arc Wayne could be in a battle. Lebanon is much like Miamisburg and is well coached/disciplined. Expect them to take advantage of Wayne's pressure leading to easy baskets. At the same time this is another team Wayne is plenty capable of beating by double digits. If Wayne gets the win here they will beat X in a rematch.
 

vamp2syd

Well-known member
How good is Lebanon? I think Elks are best team in Dayton but could also see all Dayton teams done in districts
No way Elks lose in districts. Fairfield is the highest seed and Wayne destroyed them by 30. Not sure who Centerville would play first in regionals but the only Cincy team that may give them trouble other than Moe would likely be Elder.
 

cincyhoops

Well-known member
No way Elks lose in districts. Fairfield is the highest seed and Wayne destroyed them by 30. Not sure who Centerville would play first in regionals but the only Cincy team that may give them trouble other than Moe would likely be Elder.
St. X just beat Moeller last night. St. X beat Elder this year also. St. X is better than Elder and can beat Centerville.
 

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
Dayton 1: I give the edge to Wayne over Lebanon. Lebanon is somewhat hard to size up playing in the ECC, but I imagine that by the head-to-head split they are comparable to Miamisburg.

Dayton 2: Miamisburg over Springfield. Cats have been all over the board lately, but I think they get to the rubber match...more an indictment of my lack of belief in an MVL team beating Springfield. Miamisburg will get wacked by Moeller at districts.

Dayton 3: Centerville by a ton over a dark horse Beavercreek team that I think gets a couple of wins now that they have Duvall back.

Centerville is the only one I see advancing to the regional along with the GCL trio. I would expect Wayne to be competitive against St. X, but in a tournament setting I have a lot of doubts they can control and maintain a pace favorable to their chances against them.
 

Talk some sense

Active member
St. X just beat Moeller last night. St. X beat Elder this year also. St. X is better than Elder and can beat Centerville.
Yes indeed. St. X against Wayne to get to regional should be a good one. Cville / Elder winner should be a doozy (but not until regional semis) if all goes according to seeding.
 

eagle172

Well-known member
no talk .... what is going on here....

These are my picks.

Dayton 1: Lebanon
Dayton 2: Miamisburg
Dayton 3: Centerville

surprise team... Beavercreek.... I can see them winning two games before getting blasted by Centerville.
If lebanon wins it that would be the surprise team
 

vamp2syd

Well-known member
Wayne should of beaten X at X earlier in the season. I feel Wayne matches up well against the Bombers..... you are right though, tourney is a different animal and it is difficult to beat a GCL team in the tourney.
 

catscatscats

Well-known member
Wayne should of beaten X at X earlier in the season. I feel Wayne matches up well against the Bombers..... you are right though, tourney is a different animal and it is difficult to beat a GCL team in the tourney.
Wayne was also down 17 at one point in that game and had to fight back
 

JElder

Well-known member
Centerville will get handled by the gcl south teams
Elder will have to beat some good teams to get to the Regional in the first place. If they do match up Centerville imo will beat Elder. Elder could handle any of the other Dayton teams but Centerville is well coached and will run E off the 3pt line. Thats when Elder struggles and becomes a very average basketball team.
 

vamp2syd

Well-known member
Wayne was also down 17 at one point in that game and had to fight back
Wayne missed 7 free throws and only went 2 for 15 from beyond the arc. Despite that they led the game against the hottest team in the state with under a minute to go. I feel confident they get it done if they are fortunate enough to go the opportunity. I believe that could set up a possible Wayne/Elks round 3 match-up. I am assuming the ELKS went in the opposite bracket than Moe but have not looked.
 

HardCorps

Well-known member
Centerville beat 5th ranked St. Edward last night on the road...1 night after knocking off Wayne on the road. That speaks volumes...IMO.
They lost the big guy to an Indiana school, but the team IQ increased. They have played a hell of a schedule all year. They should be ready to make it to the Moe game and Moe is beatable.
 

Talk some sense

Active member
Wayne missed 7 free throws and only went 2 for 15 from beyond the arc. Despite that they led the game against the hottest team in the state with under a minute to go. I feel confident they get it done if they are fortunate enough to go the opportunity. I believe that could set up a possible Wayne/Elks round 3 match-up. I am assuming the ELKS went in the opposite bracket than Moe but have not looked.
Wayne will likely have to beat St. X and Moe to get to the regional championship to play Cville, who would have likely beaten Elder to get there. Would be quite a run by both teams.
 

HardCorps

Well-known member
Wayne will likely have to beat St. X and Moe to get to the regional championship to play Cville, who would have likely beaten Elder to get there. Would be quite a run by both teams.
It will be a heck of a run by any team that makes it. SW Ohio is getting just like we want. Damn covid.
 

nooks

Well-known member
Just for the record...I was not insinuating in any way that the Elks were the favorite, or even the strongest contender to win the region. Clearly Moe, until someone unseats them, or any of the other top Cincy schools have proven their worth. I merely meant what I said...That beating 2 current, or former top 10 rated teams in the state on the road, in back to back nights, with the latter being a 4 hour bus ride is a commendable accomplishment.
Especially since Centerville has never been a state power in basketball. Yes, that impressed me. I guess i'm easily impressed these days...:)
 

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
Centerville has been playing very well the last few weeks...as they should be, as their top-3 players are a sophomore and a pair of juniors that have racked up a ton of varsity experience over the last two years playing against very good competition and older players. These guys are coming into form.

They will be a very tough out in the tournament for anyone. I'd expect to see them in the regional, and we'll see where the chips fall in what should be a loaded SW regional bracket.
 

UCArch

Active member
LaSalle took Elder to OT twice. Elder has had a relatively weak schedule outside of the GCL and I think that shows in their inflated record.

I think Elder is closer to LaSalle than they are to Centerville. The other poster is right, if you take away or make it tough for them to score from 3, they’ve struggled to score in every game like that.

In saying that, if you let them get open looks, they can beat anyone.
 

HardCorps

Well-known member
Centerville has been playing very well the last few weeks...as they should be, as their top-3 players are a sophomore and a pair of juniors that have racked up a ton of varsity experience over the last two years playing against very good competition and older players. These guys are coming into form.

They will be a very tough out in the tournament for anyone. I'd expect to see them in the regional, and we'll see where the chips fall in what should be a loaded SW regional bracket.
Definitely loaded. Damn covid is saving a lot of time and $$$.
 

HardCorps

Well-known member
Just for the record...I was not insinuating in any way that the Elks were the favorite, or even the strongest contender to win the region. Clearly Moe, until someone unseats them, or any of the other top Cincy schools have proven their worth. I merely meant what I said...That beating 2 current, or former top 10 rated teams in the state on the road, in back to back nights, with the latter being a 4 hour bus ride is a commendable accomplishment.
Especially since Centerville has never been a state power in basketball. Yes, that impressed me. I guess i'm easily impressed these days...:)
CVille has made a great run the past two years. No reason to think they will not this year as they have played well against that tough schedule.
 

Talk some sense

Active member
Just for the record...I was not insinuating in any way that the Elks were the favorite, or even the strongest contender to win the region. Clearly Moe, until someone unseats them, or any of the other top Cincy schools have proven their worth. I merely meant what I said...That beating 2 current, or former top 10 rated teams in the state on the road, in back to back nights, with the latter being a 4 hour bus ride is a commendable accomplishment.
Especially since Centerville has never been a state power in basketball. Yes, that impressed me. I guess i'm easily impressed these days...:)
I didn't see that anyone got on your case. I too agree that those are some good wins. Cupps always plays a tough schedule and had a chance to add some state powers due to other cancellations. I believe he is well respected by other coaches and can get those games because the other coaches are looking for another tough game as well. It's all about prepping for the tourney and now we get to see. Should be a great Regional this year.
 
.
Top