23-24 SW Ohio

This is exactly why the eye test matters. Harrison at #6 and Lakota East at #11? Harrison doesn’t have a single quality win. Goshen at #9? Nobody outside of Goshen, OH believes Winton Woods is only one seed better than Goshen. I understand the subjective opinions that get introduced in a coaches poll, but relying solely on data is very problematic.
Nobody in Goshen believes that either.
 
Games that will not count towards tournament seeding because they fall after the ranking deadline on February 2nd at midnight:

Fairfield-Milford
Lakota East-Winton Woods
Kings-Fairmont
Mason-Princeton
Mason-Lakota West
MND-Centerville
Lakota East-Mason
Princeton-Lakota West

Make it make sense....
 
Games that will not count towards tournament seeding because they fall after the ranking deadline on February 2nd at midnight:

Fairfield-Milford - 2/3
Lakota East-Winton Woods - 2/5
Kings-Fairmont 2/7
Mason-Princeton 2/3
Mason-Lakota West - 2/7
MND-Centerville(?) - 1/27
Lakota East-Mason - 2/10
Princeton-Lakota West - 2/10

Make it make sense....
Most of these games are after the draw has already taken place on Feb 4. Some are two days before the start of the tournament on Feb 12.
This is not a new issue, or really related to the formula.
 
The 1st official RPI...

Official OHSAA RPI 1-10.png
 
Tonight's Games
Oak Hills (-5.5) @ Middletown
Hamilton @ Mason (-40.5)
Lakota West (-27.5) @ Colerain
Sycamore @ Fairfield (-7.5)
Mt. Healthy (-26.5) @ Northwest
Harrison (-15.5) @ Talawanda

Thursday's Games
Anderson @ Lebanon (-32.5)
Winton Woods ( -16.5) @ Loveland
Walnut Hills @ Milford (-9.5)
Kings (-10.5) @ Turpin
West Clermont (-24.5) @ Little Miami
Seton @ Mount Notre Dame (-25.5)
St. Ursula (-3.5) @ Mercy McAuley
Edgewood @ Bellbrook (-27.5)
 
Thoughts?
This isn’t obviously how it will be at the end of the season, but if it were and the first 6 went chalk, the West Clermont and Winton Woods-Lebanon sectional would be really crowded. I’m not convinced Mason wouldn’t jump in with West Clermont to avoid Lebanon and Winton Woods…
Lakota East is better than the 6 teams ranked ahead of them.
 
I have believed that Princeton, Mason, MND, and Winton Woods would get the top 4 spots in some order. However, if one of the ECC schools wins a bunch, they could pass one or 2 of the 4. #8 Harrison could win out and be 18-2 at the seeding. How high would that put them? I would not want Lakota East going on after me if I were any of those other schools.
 
I have believed that Princeton, Mason, MND, and Winton Woods would get the top 4 spots in some order. However, if one of the ECC schools wins a bunch, they could pass one or 2 of the 4. #8 Harrison could win out and be 18-2 at the seeding. How high would that put them? I would not want Lakota East going on after me if I were any of those other schools.
If Harrison wins out, I believe they could end up around .665, which would be 5th currently. Obviously, there are going to be a ton of changes all over, but that gives you an estimate.
 
If they win out, they will most likely be that high or higher because a loss has the greatest impact to everyone's rpi. So back to strength of schedule all of 1 thru 7 have a decent chance of losing based on who they are playing.
 
You have to assume Harrison will be the 5 seed and whoever comes out on top of the ECC as the 4 with MND, Princeton, and Mason 1, 2, 3. If 2 teams in the ECC run it out, then i suppose Harrison could be 6. It feels like there could be a bracket full of ECC teams.
 
Tonight's Games
Oak Hills (-5.5) @ Middletown Oak Hills by 6
Hamilton @ Mason (-40.5) Mason by 41
Lakota West (-27.5) @ Colerain Moved to later date
Sycamore @ Fairfield (-7.5) Fairfield by 20
Mt. Healthy (-26.5) @ Northwest Mt. Healthy by 44
Harrison (-15.5) @ Talawanda Harrison by 37

Thursday's Games
Anderson @ Lebanon (-32.5) Lebanon by 24
Winton Woods ( -16.5) @ Loveland Winton Woods by 16
Walnut Hills @ Milford (-9.5) Walnut Hills by 4
Kings (-10.5) @ Turpin Kings by 34
West Clermont (-24.5) @ Little Miami West Clermont by 17
Seton @ Mount Notre Dame (-25.5) MND by 14
St. Ursula (-3.5) @ Mercy McAuley MM by 17
Edgewood @ Bellbrook (-27.5) Bellbrook by 27
Results from Wednesday/Thursday. 4 games within a half point of spread. 2 upsets (Walnut Hills and Mercy McAuley)

Saturday Slate
Sycamore @ Oak Hills (-12.5)
Hamilton @ Colerain (-1.5)
Lakota East (-28.5) @ Middletown
Anderson @ Harrison (-24.5)
Ross (-13.5) @ Edgewood
 
TY, Great Updates
Interesting Final, Seton MND game was very surprisingly much closer than final score

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STN12613435
MND139111649
 
Seems like Seton always plays MND close one game a year. Last year was a single digit game the second time around. Curious to see the box score to see if MND had an off night offensively.

Interesting results from multiple games last night. Milford loss surprising, and Winton Woods trailed by double digits at one point to Loveland. Big weekend ahead with some great event games across the state
 
Results from Wednesday/Thursday. 4 games within a half point of spread. 2 upsets (Walnut Hills and Mercy McAuley)

Saturday Slate
Sycamore @ Oak Hills (-12.5)
Hamilton @ Colerain (-1.5)
Lakota East (-28.5) @ Middletown
Anderson @ Harrison (-24.5)
Ross (-13.5) @ Edgewood
The Saturday game of Sycamore at Oak Hills has been moved to 1/22 due to request by Sycamore to move the game due to complications with playing on 1/13.
 
D1 Weekend Wrap Up

Impressive showing for GMC teams in “Classic” games this past weekend
2 wins each Lakota West, Mason & Princeton

1/15 D1 State rankings
4 MND
5 Princeton
10 Mason

MND @ Mason Saturday 1/20/24 will probably go a long way to determining seeding in Tourney

ECC: West Clermont split (1-1), Winton Woods lost
 
Tuesday Games
Mount Notre Dame (-34.5) @ St. Ursula
Lebanon (-1) @ Kings

Wednesday Games
Lakota East (-23.5) @ Oak Hills
Hamilton @ Fairfield (-23.5)
Sycamore @ Lakota West (-20.5)
Middletown @ Mason (-29.5)
Princeton (-37.5) @ Colerain
Mt. Healthy (-8.5) @ Talawanda
Harrison (-39.5) @ Northwest

Thursday Games
Kings (-25.5) @ Anderson
Walnut Hills (-7.5) @ Turpin
Winton Woods (-1.5) @ Milford
Loveland (-1.5) @ Little Miami
West Clermont @ Lebanon (-0.5)
Seton (-8.5) @ St. Ursula
Mercy McAuley (-1.5) @ Ursuline
 
Sycamore v Lakota West postponed last night. 2 straight postponements for Sycamore.
Sycamore short on numbers this year, hopefully able to reschedule/play remaining games this season
 
I’m not sure they will. This is a very very sad situation.
At some point Sycamore needs to bring up JV players and play these games they are re-scheduling---the situation is not a current team member, but is affecting their team---I know many teams have to rely on JV players to play varsity minutes. I know one opponent Sycamore defeated earlier this year was missing 3 starters, but used 3 JV players to have a 7 person team that day--it's what you do or forfeit the conference game. Hopefully they can begin playing games next Monday vs Oak Hills moving forward.
 
At some point Sycamore needs to bring up JV players and play these games they are re-scheduling---the situation is not a current team member, but is affecting their team---I know many teams have to rely on JV players to play varsity minutes. I know one opponent Sycamore defeated earlier this year was missing 3 starters, but used 3 JV players to have a 7 person team that day--it's what you do or forfeit the conference game. Hopefully they can begin playing games next Monday vs Oak Hills moving forward.
I get it. Just not sure the Sycamore Girls want to continue so may end up being some Forfeits.
 
At some point Sycamore needs to bring up JV players and play these games they are re-scheduling---the situation is not a current team member, but is affecting their team---I know many teams have to rely on JV players to play varsity minutes. I know one opponent Sycamore defeated earlier this year was missing 3 starters, but used 3 JV players to have a 7 person team that day--it's what you do or forfeit the conference game. Hopefully they can begin playing games next Monday vs Oak Hills moving forward.
What exactly is going on at Sycamore?
 
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