2022 Division VI Poll Voting Discussion (Week 4)
- Thread starter Yappi
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Msfootball
Well-known member
That was a Coldwater dude that said that btw. Quite certain coach Goodwin and the Flyers aren't concerned about D3.
cavfan1973
Active member
I made my comment because you implied that Marion wouldn't beat Ursaline 99 percent of the time which IMO is absurd. So while looking at D3 I felt that Marion could win that Division also. For some this may seem outrageous, and for the others who know, will understand. Yes I'm a Coldwater fan but I have watched enough football in my 60 plus to gain some insight. FWIW I just went back to 2018 on Calpreps and they have Marion beating Ursuline in a matchup every year since then. So that is 5 straight years that Calpreps predicts a Marion victory yet the stars have to align perfectly for Marion to even have a 1 percent chance? This years prediction 27-21. Granted Calpreps isn't the end all but they are pretty damn accurate. This is why I have a problem with some posts on here. Broadly saying Ursuline would beat Marion 99 percent of the time and the stars would have to align perfectly for them to even have a shot is nonsense.
simkon
Well-known member
Cal-Preps incorrectly predicted the winner of every Canfield playoff game in 2005 except for the state championship game they favored TCC, they also incorrectly predicted the winner of 4 of their regular season games as well. I will see what Cal Preps says about 2005 Canfield vs Marion Local of various years...
2005 Canfield 35 2005 Marion Local 10
2005 Canfield 28 2010 Marion Local 14
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Hoist the Black
Well-known member
Seems like a lot of leg work to “prove” Kirtland would win. They might actually have to play this one this year.
simkon
Well-known member
I don't know if Kirtland will win or not, but I think it could easily go either way based off of what I have seen from both teams. I have them ranked 1 and 2 for a reason, they are fairly evenly matched in my opinion. I would like to see ML play some top D-I through D-III teams and see the result, unfortunately I doubt that would ever happen, so there will be no way to say that they would beat all of those teams as some on here think is the case.
This. The level of play between D6 and D3 is huge.
Stirred not Shaken
Well-known member
Just Yuge.
State2013-1
Active member
You know that 2005 marion team was one probably 1 of the 3 worst teams Goodwin has had at Marion right? I think they went 7-3 and lost in round 2 of the playoffs. 2010 got trounced in the playoffs by minster that year. So you picked almost the 2 worst teams to put up against those in a hypothetical.
simkon
Well-known member
I will pick other years then, I just picked the years at random, I don't really know what years they were down off-hand.
Here are a few more projections
2005 Canfield 28 2012 ML 17
2005 Canfield 31 2015 ML 20
2005 Canfield 49 2003 ML 0
2003 must have been a really down year.
One thing to also note is these projections are not for the team at full strength it is for the team with 3 out of it's 4 best players including their starting QB/DB and HB/DB injured, the algorithm doesn't understand and can't take injuries into account. If the algorithm could take that into account the projections would be more lopsided in favor of Canfield.
Also for comparison the TCC team Canfield lost to by 2 points is favored by an additional 10-14 points depending on which year you pick of ML. That probably more accurately represents Canfield at full strength, because everyone would agree Canfield at full strength beats TCC that year.
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Just curious what your point is..
Is it Calpreps doesn't predict very well, or ML wouldn't be able to compete with Canfield?
Ran all the years of the Canfield 2005 team,(I assume this was their best team) neutral field, and 7 ML teams are predicted to win.
[2005] Canfield (OH) 35, [2003] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 7
[2005] Canfield (OH) 38, [2004] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 3
[2005] Canfield (OH) 35, [2005] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 14
[2005] Canfield (OH) 28, [2006] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 17
[2007] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 26, [2005] Canfield (OH) 21
[2005] Canfield (OH) 22, [2008] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 21
[2005] Canfield (OH) 28, [2009] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 13
[2005] Canfield (OH) 26, [2010] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 22
[2005] Canfield (OH) 22, [2011] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 21
[2005] Canfield (OH) 28, [2012] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 21
[2013] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 24, [2005] Canfield (OH) 21
[2014] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 28, [2005] Canfield (OH) 19
[2005] Canfield (OH) 21, [2015] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 20
[2016] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 21, [2005] Canfield (OH) 17
[2017] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 21, [2005] Canfield (OH) 14
[2018] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 24, [2005] Canfield (OH) 21
[2005] Canfield (OH) 21, [2019] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 19
[2005] Canfield (OH) 24, [2020] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 19
[2021] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 26, [2005] Canfield (OH) 14
Also ran all the years from 2003 to 2021,Neutral field and ML would be winning the series 15-4.
[2003] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 31, [2003] Canfield (OH) 17
[2004] Canfield (OH) 21, [2004] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 10
[2005] Canfield (OH) 35, [2005] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 14
[2006] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 31, [2006] Canfield (OH) 17
[2007] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 35, [2007] Canfield (OH) 20
[2008] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 31, [2008] Canfield (OH) 14
[2009] Canfield (OH) 21, [2009] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 17
[2010] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 31, [2010] Canfield (OH) 14
[2011] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 35, [2011] Canfield (OH) 14
[2012] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 42, [2012] Canfield (OH) 7
[2013] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 41, [2013] Canfield (OH) 6
[2014] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 44, [2014] Canfield (OH) 7
[2015] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 28, [2015] Canfield (OH) 7
[2016] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 34, [2016] Canfield (OH) 6
[2017] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 21, [2017] Canfield (OH) 13
[2018] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 24, [2018] Canfield (OH) 17
[2019] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 31, [2019] Canfield (OH) 12
[2020] Canfield (OH) 20, [2020] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 17
[2021] Marion Local (Maria Stein, OH) 22, [2021] Canfield (OH) 14
Of course these are just predictions.
simkon
Well-known member
The points are as follows:
Calpreps isn't always the most accurate, especially with predictions for teams in a much higher or lower division
Calpreps can't account for injuries
And finally Calpreps underrated Canfield in 2005 because their best players got injured, so run your projections against 2005 TCC and that will give you a more realistic but still not perfect idea of Canfield's true strength.
The fact of the matter is that a computer can't take everything into account to give accurate predictions for all situations.
You can argue this as much as you want but if Marion Local played the most difficult schedule in the state, they would not fare as well as larger division schools that have much more talent, depth etc, they may do well in one game, perhaps even 2 or 3, but eventually they would run out of steam for one reason or another.
A perfect example of this is Canfield blowing out Fitch last year, but they would have probably not fared as well as Fitch did against their schedule or against mostly good D-I and D-II teams.
Also Marion Local definitely would beat Canfield when they were down and ML was up, but if Canfield is a top 3 or top 5 team in its division, ML probably wins 1 time out of 10 at best and would need everything to break their way.
It just is so annoying when a fan of a D-VI or D-VII thinks their team would win state no problem in D-I or D-II.
That Brookfield team was talented that year. Also John Lott, went to Michigan, and I think Darwin Ulmer went to Arizona.
I agree. Find me one of those in this thread and I’ll be annoyed as well.
simkon
Well-known member
Well this thread here someone suggested that D-VII Marion Local would win state in D-III and have no trouble beating Ursuline and other top D-III teams.
You’ll have to show me the ‘no trouble’ part. I saw a guy saying he’d take ML over any team in D3. And I thought you were talking about D1 and D2?
Oh, and ML is D6.
simkon
Well-known member
So are you suggesting you would take Marion Local over the eventual D-III state champion this year whoever it is?
Msfootball
Well-known member
Someone suggested he would take MSML over every team in D3. It wasn't a MSML fan who said it. And he didn't say "easily" beat Ursuline. In the realm of conjecture I'd say Kirtland and Marion Local would both have winning records over Ursuline if they played them every year since 2011 when Kirtland/Marion went on a serious run. I mean we're talking about Ursuline, not St. Ed's. I don't think you will find any Marion Local fans saying they would win D3 this year.
Nope, but I also won’t get annoyed if some else does.
simkon
Well-known member
I am just talking about Ursuline this year, Ursuline in the past was D-V or D-VI on enrollment and I have no doubt in the past Marion Local or Kirtland could beat them.
When has Ursuline been D6? I don't remember that, but again I don't pay to much attention to Ursuline
Msfootball
Well-known member
Ok. Yeah I don't know enough about the top D3 teams this year to make any kind of statement on how Marion Local would do. There might be some hypothetical discussions after the playoffs depending on how far MSML and Wapak go. For now I'm just enjoying the Flyers' season. Haven't seen anything yet to rank another team ahead of Kirtland/MSML in the top 2.
simkon
Well-known member
They had D-VI enrollment numbers but were just bumped up to D-V due to competitive balance or whatever. They were the smallest D-V team in the past based off of pure enrollment for a couple years.
Ok gotcha. Just never remembered them officially being in D6
State2013-1
Active member
No one is saying Marion would beat D2 or D1 Teams but I don't think it is that unreasonable to make an argument that Marion could realistically hang with top (Contending) D3 schools. Not necessarily win but give them a good game, I think so. They've shown it in the past. In 2016 and 2017 the easily steamrolled Chaminade Juliene who lost in D3 regionals against Trotwood Madison who won state one of those years I believe. As Goodwin says he's a math guy and it's all about matchups. If youre talking about a team that primarily runs the ball, ill take Marion's front 7 in most games because they're gritty and even if smaller, like to just fly and tackle really well. Passing, I don't think I'd take the Flyers. No one is saying I'd guarantee they'd win but if I was a betting man and I had to bet in Vegas on it, yeah I would throw some money on the Flyers to beat the spread.
simkon
Well-known member
In 2016 T-M didn't play CJ, in 2017 T-M beat CJ 64-14, CJ didn't beat a single team with a winning record that year, and they themselves went only 8-5, region 12 was very weak that year outside of T-M. CJ didn't beat a single good team in 2017. In 2016 CJ went 5-5 and again didn't beat a single team with a winning record, the best team they beat was 3-7, and CJ missed the playoffs.
So yes Marion Local beat CJ in 2016 and 2017, I am not arguing that fact, but CJ was not even a top 15 team in D-III those years, they may not have even been top 20 for that matter. CJ beat one decent team those 2 years, they beat Alter in the playoffs after losing in the regular season, and then got blownout by T-M.
For comparison in 2017 CJ lost to T-M by 50, meanwhile TCC and Tri-Valley only lost by one score, so CJ wasn't in the same league as T-M, TCC, Tri-Valley, SV-SM, Canfield, Hartley, Bellfontaine, etc. All those aforementioned teams would have beat CJ that year by more than Marion Local beat them.
Marion Local is a very good team year in and year out lately and very good for their division but they would not beat a top D-III school that has a realistic chance of winning the state championship. They might give them a good game if D-III is down and they have one of their best seasons, but that is at best only once every 10 to 15 seasons. Marion Local is an excellent program, notice I have always ranked them as #1 or #2 in every poll for as long as I can remember.
Msfootball
Well-known member
Marion Local beat CJ by 28 points in 2017. Trotwood (who went undefeated and won state) beat CJ by 30 points in the regional finals. I know comparing scores can be meaningless, but there it is. Marion Local also put a running clock on Kirtland in the finals that year.
Msfootball
Well-known member
2014 Marion Local is one team that would have matched up favorably against some of the better big schools. That year Marion Local beat Coldwater by 20 points, shutting them out in fact. Coldwater dropped 62 points on an undefeated Canton Central Catholic team who beat Hartley and Ursuline in the playoffs. Ursuline had a win over Massillon that year. Obviously Marion Local doesn't produce teams this good yearly, but 2014 was a great team, not just on the D7 level. We won't know how good the 2022 squad is until the season is over. I'm not going to say they would do well against the best in D3 until then. They could get blown out by Versailles this week and I'll have egg on my face.
State2013-1
Active member
Didn't say beat, I said realistically could argue they could give them a run for their money and potentially pull out a game or 2. I'd still pick them to cover the spread in about every game. This year with their issues getting a push from their line is a different story but most years I would make the argument.