What's your logic on this? I believe that the top seed will be (or should be) Fairfield. After that it will be between Mason & Loveland.
Fairfield is 9-0-1. The draw, as you know, is against Loveland. Provided that the Indians win the rest of their games prior to the seeding, they should be #1. Their biggest test will be against Mason in their last game and after the seeds are done.
Loveland is 8-0-3. The biggest blemishes that I see on the Tigers' resume are the draws against Milford and a Bradley side that is having an off year. Milford is also not having a great year. Loveland can win the next game vs Mason and still should not get the nod over Fairfield.
Mason is 7-0-2. The Comets' draws are vs Ursuline & SUA. Both of those teams seem to be struggling this year.
Your sentence should read: "Fairfield should probably be favored for the 1 seed out of Cincy. Loveland & Mason sure to figure in too."
If Loveland wins vs Mason it should be 1. Fairfield 2. Loveland 3. Mason, MND, or Anderson
If Mason wins I see it as being 1. Fairfield 2. Mason 3. Loveland, MND, or Anderson
I didn't think that the DA would impact HS soccer all that much but as the season has progressed it is obvious that it has. There are a fair number of teams in SW Ohio that have been affected.
I will preface this by saying that it would not be outrageous for any of these three teams to get the 1 seed in Cincy. All three could make a compelling case. That being said, I guess it comes down to how you evaluate each team and its body of work. I think the coaches pay more attention to quality wins than they do tying a team you probably shouldn't have tied. In other words, a win against a top 3 opponent will help more than a tie against a mediocre team will hurt. That's the way it should be, IMO.
Fairfield's best win is probably Sycamore. Loveland has wins over Sycamore and a very good Anderson team. Mason's win over MND is probably their best result. Assuming Mason beats Sycamore tonight, they will have another quality win. Whichever team wins on Saturday will have the strongest win in Cincinnati to date, and with that win will have a stronger resume than Fairfield's. And I disagree that the FF-Loveland tie goes against Loveland and not FF. It was on FF's home turf, and if you wanna be the man you gotta beat the man. At least that's how I see it. Thus, I'd see the two scenarios playing out this way:
If Mason wins tonight and Saturday:
1. Mason (wins over #1 Loveland, #4 MND, #6 Sycamore, #8 Oak Hills, (KY) Notre Dame; ties with unranked SUA and Ursuline)
2. Fairfield (wins over #6 Sycamore, #7 Mercy McAuley, #8 Oak Hills (assumed); tie with #1 Loveland)
3. Loveland (wins over #5 Anderson, #6 Sycamore, (KY) W. Jessamine; ties with unranked Milford and Hilliard Bradley; Loss to #3 Mason)
If Loveland wins Saturday:
1. Loveland (wins over #3 Mason, #5 Anderson, #6 Sycamore, (KY) W. Jessamine; ties with unranked Milford and Hilliard Bradley)
2. Fairfield (wins over #6 Sycamore, #7 Mercy McAuley, #8 Oak Hills (assumed); tie with #1 Loveland)
3. Mason (wins over #4 MND, #6 Sycamore, #8 Oak Hills, (KY) Notre Dame; ties with unranked SUA and Ursuline; loss to #1 Loveland)
If Mason and Loveland tie, things are a lot less clear. It would be some combination of FF, Loveland, Mason, MND, and Anderson to round out the top 5. For me, Fairfield has not shown enough to deserve the 1 seed as clearly as you suggest.Like I said, it wouldn't be crazy if they got it, but the only way I would think they warrant a #1 vote is if Mason and Loveland tie or one of them loses a game before the tourney draw.