Crusaders
Moderator
#1 and #2 are nearly locks. After that it can be a toss up. For instance, Michigan last year. They were #3 and honestly, they realistically was 8-9-10. That Michigan team loses 3-4 games in the SEC or Big 12. Let's face it, it's all about getting the big names / big fan bases in the playoffs.
Upsets happen all the time. The toll of a tournament creates issues. Match ups problems. Let downs. I think old timers are just struggling with the new era where things are less top heavy than they have been in the past.