Mid-State League ‘23-24

these numbers count that are out,is this minus the CB numbers,or are they included in the new count
 
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I was planning to wait until there was a 2024-25 thread to go into next season because I didn't want to take away from HP, FC, Northside, and the other teams who had strong seasons this year by immediately looking ahead to next season. I get annoyed when the Super Bowl just ends and ESPN already has a "Way Too Early Power Rankings" article just below the game summary of the Super Bowl. But since I didn't bring it up...

OHSAA had a publication that said that a hypothetical 7-division setup for boys basketball this year would have had a cutoff number after competitive balance at 98. I couldn't help myself and had to go through the numbers for the current Central D4 teams. We will obviously need to wait for the CB numbers for next year which could make a huge difference when getting close to the cutoff, but here is the current enrollment + last year's CB. If a school had TBD, I just used the number from last cycle so those could be even more different.

2023-24 Information (from Martin RPI)
Would have been D6 this past year
Northmor (119)
Elgin (113)
Berne Union (113)
Liberty Christian (105)
Newark Catholic (105)
Wellington (101)
Tree of Life (99)

Would have been D7 this past year
Mechanicsburg (96)
Madison Christian (96)
Danville (76)
Ridgedale (62)
Northside Christian (61)
Delaware Christian (61)
Fairfield Christian (60)
Fisher Catholic (58)
Millersport (56)
Granville Christian (49)
Shekinah Christian (44)
Patriot Prep (31)

2024-25 Projection (recent OHSAA information + prior year CB as a rough estimate)
Squarely in D6 and inching toward D5 (cutoff is 142)
Elgin (134 + 5 = 139)
Northmor (129 + 0 = 129)
Berne Union (115 +11 = 126)
Tree of Life (85 + 35 = 120)
Mechanicsburg (113 + 2 = 115)

Cutting it close
Liberty Christian (42 +63 = 105)
Wellington (78 + 21 = 99)

Probably safe
Danville (80 + 10 = 90)
Madison Christian (36 + 49 = 87)
Newark Catholic (65 + 21 = 86)

Should be safely in D7
Fisher Catholic (60 + 14 = 74)
Ridgedale (67 +3 = 70)
Fairfield Christian (57 + 7 = 64)
Delaware Christian (35 +28 = 63)
Granville Christian (42 + 21 = 63)
Northside Christian (TBD/19 + 42 = 61)
Millersport (61 + 0 = 61)
Shekinah Christian (TBD/22 + 22 = 44)
Patriot Prep (35 + 0 = 35)

Observations and Notes
- The small private Christian schools in the area (mostly MOCAL) tend to put almost everyone on their varsity roster, even if they aren't varsity caliber. For example, I don't think transfers at Liberty Christian and their 63 CB points (7 points per transfer = 9 transfers?) make a huge impact.

- Continuing the above point, if Liberty knows that leaving a 3 kids off the varsity roster and only playing them JV would drop them down 21 CB points and change them from D6 to D7, would they do that? If Newark Catholic has a couple transfers who would normally be swing players, might they leave them on JV to keep them in D7?

- Those who are squarely in D6 it's hard to see them ever dropping down. I could see a couple schools straddling the line like they typically do.

- I'm very curious to see how districts are handled. I originally assumed there would only be 1 district champion since there's only 12-14 teams who would be in D7 as opposed to the 19 teams this past year. However, I would think that most districts have similar things happening. The total number of Districts should still be at 16, right? So is there still two district champs and a few teams will get byes to where their first game is District Semis? If there is only one District champion, the adding of divisions would actually make it harder to win a title for these teams (1 champion for 12-14 teams as opposed to 2 champs for 19 teams).
 
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Snowman8 said:
I was planning to wait until there was a 2024-25 thread to go into next season because I didn't want to take away from HP, FC, Northside, and the other teams who had strong seasons this year by immediately looking ahead to next season. I get annoyed when the Super Bowl just ends and ESPN already has a "Way Too Early Power Rankings" article just below the game summary of the Super Bowl. But since I didn't bring it up...

OHSAA had a publication that said that a hypothetical 7-division setup for boys basketball this year would have had a cutoff number after competitive balance at 98. I couldn't help myself and had to go through the numbers for the current Central D4 teams. We will obviously need to wait for the CB numbers for next year which could make a huge difference when getting close to the cutoff, but here is the current enrollment + last year's CB. If a school had TBD, I just used the number from last cycle so those could be even more different.
Click to expand...
Great work!
Snowman8 said:
2023-24 Information (from Martin RPI)
Would have been D6 this past year
Northmor (119)
Elgin (113)
Berne Union (113)
Liberty Christian (105)
Newark Catholic (105)
Wellington (101)
Tree of Life (99)

Would have been D7 this past year
Mechanicsburg (96)
Madison Christian (96)
Danville (76)
Ridgedale (62)
Northside Christian (61)
Delaware Christian (61)
Fairfield Christian (60)
Fisher Catholic (58)
Millersport (56)
Granville Christian (49)
Shekinah Christian (44)
Patriot Prep (31)

2024-25 Projection (recent OHSAA information + prior year CB as a rough estimate)
Squarely in D6 and inching toward D5 (cutoff is 142)
Elgin (134 + 5 = 139)
Northmor (129 + 0 = 129)
Berne Union (115 +11 = 126)
Tree of Life (85 + 35 = 120)
Mechanicsburg (113 + 2 = 115)

Cutting it close
Liberty Christian (42 +63 = 105)
Wellington (78 + 21 = 99)

Probably safe
Danville (80 + 10 = 90)
Madison Christian (36 + 49 = 87)
Newark Catholic (65 + 21 = 86)

Should be safely in D7
Fisher Catholic (60 + 14 = 74)
Ridgedale (67 +3 = 70)
Fairfield Christian (57 + 7 = 64)
Delaware Christian (35 +28 = 63)
Granville Christian (42 + 21 = 63)
Northside Christian (TBD/19 + 42 = 61)
Millersport (61 + 0 = 61)
Shekinah Christian (TBD/22 + 22 = 44)
Patriot Prep (35 + 0 = 35)

Observations and Notes
- The small private Christian schools in the area (mostly MOCAL) tend to put almost everyone on their varsity roster, even if they aren't varsity caliber. For example, I don't think transfers at Liberty Christian and their 63 CB points (7 points per transfer = 9 transfers?) make a huge impact.
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Interestingly enough, the EMIS for LCA is the same as it was the last cycle! There’s actually a decent chance that any Tier 2 players in ‘23 and ‘24 for LCA could have their physical attendance (from the ‘22-23 season) backfilled by upflow T2 kids in the classes of 2026 and 2027, with the CB number being replenished the moment a warm-up shirt comes off and the substitution horn gets sounded. Oh no!!!

63 is a hard number to shake. And that’s before you consider…

1) the program is probably not that deep to begin with. Unless LCA had 19 kids in basketball for ‘22-23 (doubtful), that’s at least half of the program in T2. There’s probably a bunch of that 63 still in ‘24-26 to begin with, which is tough, unless some of them didn’t play this previous year (unlikely?) But what’s even harder is any T2 kids in ‘23 being shedded this past year with the number not being regenerated by any new T2 kids across four classes seeing the court in the process.

2) LCA is also an unusual case where the lion share of T2 kids might not be physical transfers across school systems (like they would be basically everywhere else) but, instead, enrollees into the school beyond 7th grade that were previously homeschooled. That alone is a little inconvenient for CB purposes, but combine that with “EdChoice for all” starting this previous school year and now you’ve got your hands tied.
Snowman8 said:
- Continuing the above point, if Liberty knows that leaving a 3 kids off the varsity roster and only playing them JV would drop them down 21 CB points and change them from D6 to D7, would they do that? If Newark Catholic has a couple transfers who would normally be swing players, might they leave them on JV to keep them in D7?
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That would have required the foresight to have specifically rostered those kids for reserve before there was an actual tell that seven divisions was happening in hoops. In LCA’s case, we’re talking about a program that either lacked the depth to not play nine T2 kids (nine!!!) in varsity action in ‘22-23 or a program that cannot see the forest past the trees whatsoever. It’s probably the former case. If it’s somehow the latter, well, they probably were as oblivious this past season as well. And it’s not like it was very apparent in November 2023 that having an EMIS + CB of 91 (net -2 T2) 98 (net -1 T2) or 105 (net zero T2) was going to be something to consider for the future.

NC situation
I could see them doing that for football (where the CB rostering rules are different) by reserve rostering an otherwise T2 freshman that isn’t varsity ready (although it comes at a cost to the kickoff team, something that program always takes seriously.) For basketball, I don’t really see them trying to thread the needle.

In the context of their basketball program as it currently stands, the short-term enrollment picture and the fact they play in the LCL (versus the MSL), it would be galaxy brain strategy. The version that’s a meme, not clairvoyance. I’ll liken it to a credit card: the preference to avoid having to pay interest can’t overcome the need to make the charge now. Not playing any ‘swing’ T2’s (if they even have any) and instead relegating them to JV, just to ensure a D7 postseason (versus a D6) would be penny-wise and pound-foolish. That program needs all of the service it can get on the court at this time. I know it’s a school where the tradition is deeply wired toward the postseason (the only banners are state championship banners), but the need is greater to not have another 1-win LCL campaign in boys’ basketball. (Plus I think they may have more range with T2’s falling off with the upcoming year if this year’s T2 number involves ‘23s or underclassmen who saw the court but didn’t opt to play.)
Snowman8 said:
- I'm very curious to see how districts are handled. I originally assumed there would only be 1 district champion since there's only 12-14 teams who would be in D7 as opposed to the 19 teams this past year. However, I would think that most districts have similar things happening. The total number of Districts should still be at 16, right? So is there still two district champs and a few teams will get byes to where their first game is District Semis? If there is only one District champion, the adding of divisions would actually make it harder to win a title for these teams (1 champion for 12-14 teams as opposed to 2 champs for 19 teams).
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The districts that are going to experience either no change in Sweet 16 representation, or will have increased representation, in D7 are the NW and SW districts. The NE might not experience any change.

It’s still possible that the Central will have two bids. This is where it gets weird. The East District D4 tournament had 16 schools, but it may be as many as 8 schools (distant possibility of 9) will be in D6 — not D7. Caldwell, Hiland, Newcomerstown, Shenandoah, and Toronto are five that have EMIS numbers above 100. Monroe Central is anticipated to possibly be D6. River could be just north of the D6/D7 line after CB’s. But even if those two Switzerland of Ohio schools somehow are D7, you also have cases like Steubenville CC at EMIS 82 and even Rosecrans that already might be too close to the CB fire in tow with the booned EMIS of 65(!) If the cutoff number is indeed 93, the East District may at the end of the day be at only 7 or 8 schools in D7. It wouldn’t be unprecedented if those D7 schools get apportioned off into the NE and SE districts, considering that’s what happened a year or two ago with the D3 soccer tournament on both sides.

The Southeast had 20 D4 teams. They aren’t vulnerable to losing as many schools to D6 like the East District is. But Eastern Meigs, Federal Hocking, Manchester and Symmes Valley look like they’ll be D6 on EMIS if the line is 93. That’s 16. The two Pike County schools are going to be very close. Eastern is at 91 EMIS, their last CB number was 2. Western is at 90 EMIS but their recent CB number was 3. South Gallia and South Webster are both unknown’s. SW is EMIS 78 but could be close after CB. If two of those five are D6, that’s 14 Southeast D7’s.

So the Region 15 map for D7, by athletic district, will likely be…

Southeast: 14-16 (let’s say it’s 16 and not presume that either/both of the Pike County schools will have CB increases that put them over 93.)

Central: 12-14 (let’s say it’s 12 and not 13. Thanks, LCA!)

East District: at max 11, plausibly 10 and may get into 7-9 territory.

Could see a situation with the East where four go north and four go south.
 
The Dock said:
Great work!

Interestingly enough, the EMIS for LCA is the same as it was the last cycle! There’s actually a decent chance that any Tier 2 players in ‘23 and ‘24 for LCA could have their physical attendance (from the ‘22-23 season) backfilled by upflow T2 kids in the classes of 2026 and 2027, with the CB number being replenished the moment a warm-up shirt comes off and the substitution horn gets sounded. Oh no!!!

63 is a hard number to shake. And that’s before you consider…

1) the program is probably not that deep to begin with. Unless LCA had 19 kids in basketball for ‘22-23 (doubtful), that’s at least half of the program in T2. There’s probably a bunch of that 63 still in ‘24-26 to begin with, which is tough, unless some of them didn’t play this previous year (unlikely?) But what’s even harder is any T2 kids in ‘23 being shedded this past year with the number not being regenerated by any new T2 kids across four classes seeing the court in the process.

2) LCA is also an unusual case where the lion share of T2 kids might not be physical transfers across school systems (like they would be basically everywhere else) but, instead, enrollees into the school beyond 7th grade that were previously homeschooled. That alone is a little inconvenient for CB purposes, but combine that with “EdChoice for all” starting this previous school year and now you’ve got your hands tied.

That would have required the foresight to have specifically rostered those kids for reserve before there was an actual tell that seven divisions was happening in hoops. In LCA’s case, we’re talking about a program that either lacked the depth to not play nine T2 kids (nine!!!) in varsity action in ‘22-23 or a program that cannot see the forest past the trees whatsoever. It’s probably the former case. If it’s somehow the latter, well, they probably were as oblivious this past season as well. And it’s not like it was very apparent in November 2023 that having an EMIS + CB of 91 (net -2 T2) 98 (net -1 T2) or 105 (net zero T2) was going to be something to consider for the future.

NC situation
I could see them doing that for football (where the CB rostering rules are different) by reserve rostering an otherwise T2 freshman that isn’t varsity ready (although it comes at a cost to the kickoff team, something that program always takes seriously.) For basketball, I don’t really see them trying to thread the needle.

In the context of their basketball program as it currently stands, the short-term enrollment picture and the fact they play in the LCL (versus the MSL), it would be galaxy brain strategy. The version that’s a meme, not clairvoyance. I’ll liken it to a credit card: the preference to avoid having to pay interest can’t overcome the need to make the charge now. Not playing any ‘swing’ T2’s (if they even have any) and instead relegating them to JV, just to ensure a D7 postseason (versus a D6) would be penny-wise and pound-foolish. That program needs all of the service it can get on the court at this time. I know it’s a school where the tradition is deeply wired toward the postseason (the only banners are state championship banners), but the need is greater to not have another 1-win LCL campaign in boys’ basketball. (Plus I think they may have more range with T2’s falling off with the upcoming year if this year’s T2 number involves ‘23s or underclassmen who saw the court but didn’t opt to play.)

The districts that are going to experience either no change in Sweet 16 representation, or will have increased representation, in D7 are the NW and SW districts. The NE might not experience any change.

It’s still possible that the Central will have two bids. This is where it gets weird. The East District D4 tournament had 16 schools, but it may be as many as 8 schools (distant possibility of 9) will be in D6 — not D7. Caldwell, Hiland, Newcomerstown, Shenandoah, and Toronto are five that have EMIS numbers above 100. Monroe Central is anticipated to possibly be D6. River could be just north of the D6/D7 line after CB’s. But even if those two Switzerland of Ohio schools somehow are D7, you also have cases like Steubenville CC at EMIS 82 and even Rosecrans that already might be too close to the CB fire in tow with the booned EMIS of 65(!) If the cutoff number is indeed 93, the East District may at the end of the day be at only 7 or 8 schools in D7. It wouldn’t be unprecedented if those D7 schools get apportioned off into the NE and SE districts, considering that’s what happened a year or two ago with the D3 soccer tournament on both sides.

The Southeast had 20 D4 teams. They aren’t vulnerable to losing as many schools to D6 like the East District is. But Eastern Meigs, Federal Hocking, Manchester and Symmes Valley look like they’ll be D6 on EMIS if the line is 93. That’s 16. The two Pike County schools are going to be very close. Eastern is at 91 EMIS, their last CB number was 2. Western is at 90 EMIS but their recent CB number was 3. South Gallia and South Webster are both unknown’s. SW is EMIS 78 but could be close after CB. If two of those five are D6, that’s 14 Southeast D7’s.

So the Region 15 map for D7, by athletic district, will likely be…

Southeast: 14-16 (let’s say it’s 16 and not presume that either/both of the Pike County schools will have CB increases that put them over 93.)

Central: 12-14 (let’s say it’s 12 and not 13. Thanks, LCA!)

East District: at max 11, plausibly 10 and may get into 7-9 territory.

Could see a situation with the East where four go north and four go south.
Click to expand...
Great stuff!!
 
JokesOnYou said:
HPS vs OG on Friday. The last time they played, OG won off of a game-winner two years ago. Both teams are used to the Final Four, with Harvest Prep competing last year and OG making it the last four years! Harvest Prep must continue to use their balanced attack and aggression to win. Defensively, HPS has to stop Collin White, OG's star player.

Prediction
HPS-61
OG-58
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I was 1 point off from the final score
HPS-61
OG-58

Adonus Abrams finished with 28, while Colin white scored 32 for OG.
 
Unknown4321 said:
Pic was against div 6. Team….
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1712027878784.png

no it wasn’t + they were 0-7 + doesn’t matter
 
The Dock said:
The East District D4 tournament had 16 schools, but it may be as many as 8 schools (distant possibility of 9) will be in D6 — not D7. Caldwell, Hiland, Newcomerstown, Shenandoah, and Toronto are five that have EMIS numbers above 100. Monroe Central is anticipated to possibly be D6. River could be just north of the D6/D7 line after CB’s. But even if those two Switzerland of Ohio schools somehow are D7, you also have cases like Steubenville CC at EMIS 82 and even Rosecrans that already might be too close to the CB fire in tow with the booned EMIS of 65(!) If the cutoff number is indeed 93, the East District may at the end of the day be at only 7 or 8 schools in D7. It wouldn’t be unprecedented if those D7 schools get apportioned off into the NE and SE districts, considering that’s what happened a year or two ago with the D3 soccer tournament on both sides.



East District: at max 11, plausibly 10 and may get into 7-9 territory.

Could see a situation with the East where four go north and four go south.
Click to expand...
Update…

re: Switzerland of Ohio schools,

Monroe Central EMIS is 130
River EMIS is 81

— — —

The other update with the East District is a shocker.

Bishop Rosecrans EMIS is now 85(!)

Get ready to re-learn Hiland basketball, Bishops!
 
There is some good stuff on here. Everyone submitted their CB #'s by April 5th, we got the email yesterday stating if there were anything wrong we had until 4/23 to amend with our AD's. I'm curious where the cutoff lines will be for hoops, our EMIS # is 100 with a 0 CB#. We are going to be very close to the D6/7 line. I'm also curious how they will set up regions, if you look at football, in D7 many of the teams that are East district hoops teams are in different football regions. I'm assuming based on that 4/23 date from yesterday's email that divisions will be released in the near future.
 
Caldwellbasketball said:
There is some good stuff on here. Everyone submitted their CB #'s by April 5th, we got the email yesterday stating if there were anything wrong we had until 4/23 to amend with our AD's. I'm curious where the cutoff lines will be for hoops, our EMIS # is 100 with a 0 CB#. We are going to be very close to the D6/7 line. I'm also curious how they will set up regions, if you look at football, in D7 many of the teams that are East district hoops teams are in different football regions. I'm assuming based on that 4/23 date from yesterday's email that divisions will be released in the near future.
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I’m taking a guess that if Rosecrans and Caldwell are in the same division, then the ‘Skins are 6; if the Bishops and ‘Skins are different divisions then Caldwell D7.

Both are really close to the line either way if the cutoff goes up from the original 93.
 
The Dock said:
I’m taking a guess that if Rosecrans and Caldwell are in the same division, then the ‘Skins are 6; if the Bishops and ‘Skins are different divisions then Caldwell D7.

Both are really close to the line either way if the cutoff goes up from the original 93.
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I'm shocked that Rosecrans enrollment has gone up that much. A few years ago they were really struggling from a numbers standpoint. Monroe Central has gone up a ton as well. I'm curious if that's from Beallsville kids leaving or just a few big classes. They are doing exceptionally well financially over there and their community is fully invested in their athletics, very similar to ours here.
 
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