Division 3 Region 12 playoff discussion

the_beezer

Active member
Just wanting to start a little playoff talk about this region. Wapak has one of it's most balanced teams going into this years playoff and defense the last 8 weeks shut been lights out. Jace Knous has taken it to the next level running the ball
 
 
Just wanting to start a little playoff talk about this region. Wapak has one of it's most balanced teams going into this years playoff and defense the last 8 weeks shut been lights out. Jace Knous has taken it to the next level running the ball
Should be an interesting region. Drew Pasteur has Wapak as the team to beat with a 41% chance to win the region 🤷‍♂️
 
I'm going to guess that the regional semifinals are 1) Badin vs 5) Wapakoneta & 2) Tippecanoe vs 3) Trotwood-Madison. I think the Mt Healthy/Chaminade Julienne winner could make things interesting in the second round. And I'd be curious to see Bellbrook against Badin. In years past, Badin has just looked so stout on defense and just far and above the best team in R12. This year, it doesn't quite appear that they're that far out front from the rest. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens. I'd love for the state champ to come from R12.
 
Why/ how does Drew Pasteur have Wapakoneta as the favored team in the region when there are several other teams that have been ranked above them all season?
 
Badin got a tough draw. Second round game of Bellbrook/Wilmington will be a stern test. If you win that you get the favorite according to Pasteur. Make to the finals likely Trotwood. Tough road for this Badin team, if they’re healthy they will compete, if not they can lose in the second round. Region 12 has a lot of good teams this year
 
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Why/ how does Drew Pasteur have Wapakoneta as the favored team in the region when there are several other teams that have been ranked above them all season?
The only thing I can figure is Drews algorithm gives Wapak a bunch of credit for their tight loss to ML bc outside of that game their schedule is not impressive and their loss to Defiance is a head scratcher.
 
Badin got a tough draw. Second round game of Bellbrook/Wilmington will be a stern test. If you win that you get the favorite according to Pasteur. Make to the finals likely Trotwood. Tough road for this Badin team, if they’re healthy they will compete, if not they can lose in the second round. Region 12 has a lot of good teams this year
Badin will be fine.
 
The only thing I can figure is Drews algorithm gives Wapak a bunch of credit for their tight loss to ML bc outside of that game their schedule is not impressive and their loss to Defiance is a head scratcher.
Granted this is all using Drew's algorithms, but he actually has Wapak's schedule difficulty ranked quite a bit higher than most of the other R12 contenders. Drew ranks the difficulty of Wapak's schedule as #12 in all of D3 (out of 106). Badin is 20th, Bellbrook's is 26th, Trotwood's is 40th, Butler is 63rd, Tippecanoe is all the way down at 66th.

I'm sure this has a symbiotic relationship... if Drew's algorithms believe they have a difficult schedule and they've done well against it, then he's going to rank them accordingly and vice versa. With R12, it seems Drew is high on the WBL and GCL teams in terms of the quality of their conferences and opponents. I'd tend to agree, in general, that Badin/Trotwood have been the best in R12 for a while now so seeing anyone other than them as the "favorite" is a bit surprising.
 
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I would argue Badin has the more impressive resume considering they are undefeated and have played 4 top 150 teams compared to Wapak’s 2-1 record against top 150 teams.
I think Wapak’s resume is boosted a ton by the close loss to Marion Local, which was a game they had won if they recovered the onside kick at the end. The only other team to even compete with ML this season is Versailles, who should run through DVI.

The loss at Defiance is bizarre in hind sight but early in the season Defiance looked like the best team in the league and they are 3 combined points away from being 9-1 and WBL champs.

I think this is Badin’s region to lose but Wapak and Trotwood are the biggest threats. Trotwood not getting more love from Drew Pasteur is confusing to me considering they have 3 top 100 wins and their only losses are to some of the top teams in D2. IMO resume wise they should be ranked the #2 team in DIII behind TCC.
 
I think Trotwood not getting as much love with their power rating is derived from the second half of their schedule. I don't think any less of their ability to win the region, but beating up on all of the relatively weak DPS schools drags them down a bit.
 
I would argue Badin has the more impressive resume considering they are undefeated and have played 4 top 150 teams compared to Wapak’s 2-1 record against top 150 teams.
I think Wapak’s resume is boosted a ton by the close loss to Marion Local, which was a game they had won if they recovered the onside kick at the end. The only other team to even compete with ML this season is Versailles, who should run through DVI.

The loss at Defiance is bizarre in hind sight but early in the season Defiance looked like the best team in the league and they are 3 combined points away from being 9-1 and WBL champs.

I think this is Badin’s region to lose but Wapak and Trotwood are the biggest threats. Trotwood not getting more love from Drew Pasteur is confusing to me considering they have 3 top 100 wins and their only losses are to some of the top teams in D2. IMO resume wise they should be ranked the #2 team in DIII behind TCC.
I agree that one of those 3 teams wins R12 this year.

The only common opponent I can find between the 3 is Badin and TW both beat Alter. TW 35-28 Badin 29-24. Badin bested Wapak 16-9 in the regional semi last season.
 
I would argue Badin has the more impressive resume considering they are undefeated and have played 4 top 150 teams compared to Wapak’s 2-1 record against top 150 teams.
I think Wapak’s resume is boosted a ton by the close loss to Marion Local, which was a game they had won if they recovered the onside kick at the end. The only other team to even compete with ML this season is Versailles, who should run through DVI.

The loss at Defiance is bizarre in hind sight but early in the season Defiance looked like the best team in the league and they are 3 combined points away from being 9-1 and WBL champs.

I think this is Badin’s region to lose but Wapak and Trotwood are the biggest threats. Trotwood not getting more love from Drew Pasteur is confusing to me considering they have 3 top 100 wins and their only losses are to some of the top teams in D2. IMO resume wise they should be ranked the #2 team in DIII behind TCC.
Let’s go!!!!!
 
I think Trotwood not getting as much love with their power rating is derived from the second half of their schedule. I don't think any less of their ability to win the region, but beating up on all of the relatively weak DPS schools drags them down a bit.
In a perfect world I don’t think we do this, but it’s DPS those 5 games will ALWAYS be there. Not to mention all 5 teams use the same venue, and it’s just 10-15mins from Trotwood. I know everybody takes shots at us for taking all 5 games. Look into all DPS team schedules, and you will see we are not the only Dayton area team that feasts. In fact, taking a second look, if you put all of their OOC opponents together it’s actually a very diverse and respectable list of teams.
 
In a perfect world I don’t think we do this, but it’s DPS those 5 games will ALWAYS be there. Not to mention all 5 teams use the same venue, and it’s just 10-15mins from Trotwood. I know everybody takes shots at us for taking all 5 games. Look into all DPS team schedules, and you will see we are not the only Dayton area team that feasts. In fact, taking a second look, if you put all of their OOC opponents together it’s actually a very diverse and respectable list of teams.
Nothing wrong with Twoods schedule, they have proven over the years they will play anyone. I don’t think they have the horses to beat Badin but that’s why you play the games
 
If Badin gets their two defensive stars back and cuts down on the mistakes on offense they will be hard to beat. They had a great game offensively against McNick. They need to keep that going. The Rams haven’t played their best game yet this season, maybe they are due. Usually teams that are senior heavy do well in the playoffs and Badin is very senior heavy
 
Nothing wrong with Twoods schedule, they have proven over the years they will play anyone. I don’t think they have the horses to beat Badin but that’s why you play the games
What horses??? You beat Alter by 4, we beat them by 8. Since this is the only measuring stick we have I would say we are even. Let’s just hope we both are fortunate enough to be playing in 4 weeks.
 
What horses??? You beat Alter by 4, we beat them by 8. Since this is the only measuring stick we have I would say we are even. Let’s just hope we both are fortunate enough to be playing in 4 weeks.
If they both make it we shall see, last time didn’t go well for the Wood
 
If they both make it we shall see, last time didn’t go well for the Wood
Lol, the 7th seed at that, beat Badin and grabbed the Chip!!!
 

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Nothing wrong with Twoods schedule, they have proven over the years they will play anyone. I don’t think they have the horses to beat Badin but that’s why you play the games.
Horses are not the problem. The Rams have horses all over the field. Led by a QB that checks all the intangibles. Its the ability of Graham to be able to get these kids to believe and play together. This is the tornado/Covid group of seniors. Missed two years of traditional football and they have had a hard time living up to expectations due to the fact they did not get a chance to spend time with the winners that left program. But this year they have shown some hints of the Trotwood teams that put banners outside the stadium. I promise Graham does not get the credit he deserves as a coach. If this group ever clicks on all cylinders watch out and they are getting there. But other teams in the region feel the same way so we will see who wins region 12. Playoffs in OHIO.. Love it!
 
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