Thoughts/Predictions on NC Hoover District

Massillon Perry with a heck of a round in Consi semis, goes 6 for 6, 132 and 138 both with wins over Wadsworth to send a total of 10 to state, team score may be close in the end, but Massillon Perry with the lead right now over Wadsworth
Wild sequence for Mass Perry! Mcburney has them peaking at the right time.
 
Observations: 1) Congrats to Perry for an outstanding weekend of wrestling. I was wrong they aren't a year away, but they are young. Riggs would be proud. 2) Got to bang on the Suburban League again. Had 3 of the top 4 and 6 of the top 10 teams sending 24 to Columbus with 8 Champs. 3) I only attended Saturday but from what I saw it looked like a pretty good crew (officials). Tournament was well run.
 
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Observations: 1) Congrats to Perry for an outstanding weekend of wrestling. I was wrong they aren't a year away, but they are young. Riggs would be proud. 2) Got to bang on the Suburban League again. Had 3 of the top 4 and 6 of the top 10 teams sending 24 to Columbus with 8 Champs. 3) I only attended Saturday but from what I saw it looked like a pretty good crew (officials). Tournament was well run.
Just noticed that all 6 place winners at 190 were from the SL. That is amazing.
 
Going through the weights ..

106: McBurney (M. Perry) is the favorite through the top half, but has the toughest path with Clemens (Un. Lake) first round and then Sharpley (Solon) in the quarter. The easiest match for him in getting to the final just might be the semifinal. Rather smooth sailing for Stanley (Brecksville) and Dinwiddie (Wadsworth) in the bottom half, look for Dinwiddie to do what he did the first two times, and win a low scoring bout in the semifinal. Dinwiddie over Sharpley in one go to, and I have Clemens beating the fourth semifinalist (Hahn of Mentor) to slide on out to state.

113: The result with Ferguson (Fitch) over Grunzweig (Solon) last week shows that this is a completely open weight class for all four places, as opposed to being more a Grunzweig taking first and then wide open for two through four. I do think it's Grunzweig, Dulcie (M. Perry), and Ferguson for three state spots with Riordan (Jackson) and DeBoe (Mentor) most likely battling for spot four.

120: Joy (Wadsworth) and McBurney (M. Perry) are in opposite halves, and should safely hit the final. Molchak (Solon) and Vazsonyi (M. Highland) should be the other two wrestlers to get out, with each hitting semis after winning sectionals last week; Molchak has it a little tougher with Artman (Un. Lake) as a dangerous opening round opponent. Could end up with Palmisano (Mayfield) v Vazsonyi in a rematch of a sectional final that Vazsonyi won last week in a go-to bout.

126: This weight is a monstrosity. Five returning state medalists, a 2020 state qualifier (SA last year), and another returning state alternate. As noted earlier, the most tenable state path is held by Brugh (Wadsworth), who has the easiest quarterfinal opponent on paper. I would say Blackburn (Mentor) has the hardest state path drawing Jett (Brecksville) in a quarter then likely looking at the D'Alessandro (Mayfield)/Brugh loser to go, assuming he can replicate last week's sectional semifinal win over Haney (M. Highland) in a consi quarter - I'm assuming Frye (Walsh Jesuit) beats Haney in the quarters. Ultimately, I think Jett, D'Alessandro, and Brugh clear with Frye or Crutis (M. Perry) taking fourth - I know that's pretty much conventional wisdom, but it's conventional for a reason.

132: This is another monstrosity, though it's at a level below 126 in terms of podium caliber kids. Shelley (Mentor) is my pick to clear the top, though it's likely going through Davis (Stow) - only lost his sectional final by one last week - in a quarter and then the Pluhar (Brecksville)/Mellon (Wadsworth) quarterfinal winner; Pluhar has two narrow wins over Mellon this season. In the lower half, Gerome (Solon) is my pick to clear, though he could lose at either the quarterfinal (to Geckler, M. Perry) or semifinal (Cassetty, Un. Lake) levels. The top seven kids could do anything from win the weight to not even hit a go-to bout.

138: VanDyke (Walsh Jesuit) is the class of this field. Shue (Wadsworth) and Petite (Nordonia) are the next two best kids in the weight, they've split bouts this year, Petite winning the most recent. Shue v Crutchley (M. Highland) in the quarter is the more dangerous bout before the semis for those two. Shue is in the Van Dyke half, so you're looking at whom his go-to bout is, and I think he should make a third state tournament. Petite is looking at Johnson (M. Perry) in a semi, he's favored there; in terms of Johnson's go-to, probably either Zambounis (Brecksville) or Crutchley (Highland), they've split bouts this season. Note Zambounis does have a tough first rounder against Minick (Un. Lake), for which the winner hits Van Dyke.

144: This weight is similar to 132 in being a total mess, and it's also similar in terms of there not being any sure fire "high podium" candidates. I like Scordos (Brecksville) and Hill (M. Highland) to clear the respective sides, though there are ZERO guarantees. Scordos has Perrine (Nordonia) first round in a tossup match, the winner of which I think hits the top semi; the second quarter is one where Humphrys (Wadsworth) is favored; Scordos has two wins over Humphrys this season, though both were tight bouts. Hill has Supers (Medina) in a quarter, while the lower quarter has Randall (Stow) v Jordan (Un. Lake) as the most likely match, though Giltz (M. Perry) v Jordan first round could be worth attention. My picks to clear from consolation are Humphrys and Randall. Put this weight's pick down in soft pencil.

Back later for the back half.
Could you do this same type of projection for the State Tournament?
 
150: Earnest (Wadsworth) clears the top here, faces Thompson (M. Perry) in a semi, looks like 2nd straight year Thompson will lose in the semi at district. Down low, Whitehill (Medina) and Smith (Eastlake North) should meet in the semi. I feel pretty good about those two getting out, and I think Thompson gets out, so it's a straight forward weight class.

157: I feel pretty good about the first three spots going to Scavuzzo (M. Highland), Lintner (Fitch), and Valencia (Barberton). There's a whole lot of the same behind that in terms of the fourth spot. The Booth (Green) v Ryder (Wadsworth) quarter winner is going to be in a go-to, while that loser has to win a relatively tough match just to get to a likely go-to against Valencia. Valencia/Dolph is an interesting quarter, interesting first rounders are Ridgely/Crevar and Rizzo/Siambo.

165: This draw is kind of lopsided with more depth in the top half. I feel pretty confident that Reed (Stow) vs. Dimmerling (Glen Oak) is going to be the semi down in the bottom half, a rematch from a 4-2 Reed overtime win on opening weekend. Top half is looking at a couple of basically must win quarters, both of which are tossups - Olszko/DiMarco and Scavuzzo/McStay (that's assuming DiMarco and Scavuzzo win interesting first round bouts). The draw sets up golden for the Olszko/DiMarco winner to clear to state, though they are the 5th and 6th best kids on paper in this bracket.

175: For my purposes, O'Horo (Boardman) and Vanadia (Brecksville) are the class of the field, I like Batson (Glen Oak) as the third best kid. This leaves an open state spot, which based on draw and performance last week is Schaefer from Wadsworth's to lose. If you told me a week ago that Schaefer would be the favorite to be the four at 175 here at Hoover, I would have told you that you're crazy.

190: This has a lot of the feel of 132 and 144 in that it's a total muck of wrestlers that are about the same, and there's nobody who is truly that good. Based on sectional performance, I like Sherman (Walsh Jesuit) to clear the top, his toughest opponent is probably Konopka (M. Highland) in the quarter. Then I like Grimm (Wadsworth) out of the bottom half. That third quarter of the draw is the real wild card here: Legg/Crabiel and Earle/Edmonson in the opening round (personally I like Legg and Edmonson to win).

215: Shepard (M. Perry) is the class of the field. Down in the lower half, look for Andrews (Barberton) and Vanadia (Brecksville) to meet in the semi again this week, Andrews is 2-0 against Vanadia this season, no reason to believe it's not three. Vanadia's path to the semi does involve Blackburn (Wadsworth) and then Bataggi (Riverside), while Andrews has what could be an interesting match against Stiles (M. Highland). I have Stiles as my fourth kid out, though he has lost go-to matches the last two years, the one two years ago was an absolute collapse - go-to this year against the top quarter bracket semifinalist (loser to Shepard there), which is Depuy (Massillon) in my opinion

285: Fockler (M. Perry) and Ries (Wadsworth) are thankfully opposite, which means the draw is equitable. I think the Scally/Doyle quarterfinal winner clears to state, as does Williams (Brush), with Williams beating the Scally/Doyle loser to get out.
Would you do this same type of projection for State in Div 1?
 
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