D1 boys GlenOak sectional

Do the following rankings in the D1 GlenOak boys sectional seem plausible? I am a numbers guy looking at a potential future project on ranking XC teams, and want to know whether a quick proof-of-concept attempt is giving believable results, versus generating garbage. Thanks!

1 Jackson
2 Louisville
3 GlenOak
4 Aurora
5 Perry
6 Hoover
--gap--
7 Canfield
8 Hudson
9 Boardman
10 Wooster
11 Stow
--gap--
12 Green
13 Cuyahoga Falls
14 Austintown-Fitch
15 Firestone
--gap--
16 Lake
17 Hoban
18 Wadsworth

(Teams not included in data set: Roosevelt, Alliance, Barberton, McKinley, Akron East, Ellet, Kenmore-Garfield, Akron North, Norton)
 

Mr. Slippery

Well-known member
You might be in the ballpark. Even if it's not perfect, you gotta start somewhere with your modeling.

Admittedly, I don't spend much time trying to figure out the 15th best team in the district, haha. The hardest part in XC might be accounting for the absence of a top 5 performer since that can have a greater impact on a team's performance than missing a run-of-the-mill starting player on a football team when you do those rankings and projections. It's hard to know who everybody's top runners are and how to build that into a model. Do you model based on who actually has competed in each race, or do you model based on how a team might do if at full strength?

BTW, this would be a district meet. I have not seen the term "sectional" applied to HS XC in NE Ohio since the end of the 1984 season.
 
You might be in the ballpark. Even if it's not perfect, you gotta start somewhere with your modeling.

Admittedly, I don't spend much time trying to figure out the 15th best team in the district, haha. The hardest part in XC might be accounting for the absence of a top 5 performer since that can have a greater impact on a team's performance than missing a run-of-the-mill starting player on a football team when you do those rankings and projections. It's hard to know who everybody's top runners are and how to build that into a model. Do you model based on who actually has competed in each race, or do you model based on how a team might do if at full strength?

BTW, this would be a district meet. I have not seen the term "sectional" applied to HS XC in NE Ohio since the end of the 1984 season.
This is helpful context, thanks. In a first attempt, I am using (only) average time of the top five runners, relative to the other teams on the same course. This isn't a perfect measuring stick, as a slightly slower average with a smaller spread of times might still lead to a better finish placement, but it's simple and decently effective.
 
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