2022 CFP Projections

AEW Champion said:
This could not be more incorrect. Wail ‘til Saturday night and you’ll see what I’m talking about.

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One has multiple bad losses while the other has handled their business outside of losing to two top 5-6 teams, and will likely cruise to 10-2. Domers will be lucky to go 8-4.
 
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AEW Champion said:
If the SEC has three of the four best teams in the country, then there should be three SEC teams in the playoff. Based on what I’ve seen so far this year, Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama might well be the three best teams in the country. Ohio State or Michigan might be the fourth, but it’s hard to tell since they haven’t played anybody good all year except Notre Dame.

I would totally be in favor of three SEC teams being in the playoff this year, depending on how the next month goes.

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Alabama could have three losses right now - Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M. They're not one of the top 3 teams in the country.
 
Interesting that Penn State is 15 and LSU is 10. Both teams are 6-2, Penn State went to Auburn and blew them out, LSU went to Auburn and only won by 4. LSU also lost to a 3 loss FSU.
 
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There's a major drop off starting at 10. Don't really personally have an issue with LSU being there coming off of pounding a previously unbeaten Ole Miss. I can't imagine ranking any of the 3-4 teams after those two as high as 10th.
 
nwwarrior09 said:
There's a major drop off starting at 10. Don't really personally have an issue with LSU being there coming off of pounding a previously unbeaten Ole Miss. I can't imagine ranking any of the 3-4 teams after those two as high as 10th.
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Feels forced just because LSU beat Ole Miss. Who has Ole Miss beaten that they should be #11? Kentucky? Texas A&M?

Alabama is #6, lost at #1 Tennessee on a last-second FG. LSU is #10, got curb-stomped at home against #1 Tennessee. LSU also lost a "neutral site" game in their backyard to 3-loss Florida St.

Kansas St and UCLA both have arguments to be ahead of both of them.
 
nwwarrior09 said:
There's a major drop off starting at 10. Don't really personally have an issue with LSU being there coming off of pounding a previously unbeaten Ole Miss. I can't imagine ranking any of the 3-4 teams after those two as high as 10th.
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This is the issue with expansion to 12, all of sudden #12 is a spot to keep an eye on and there isn’t a ton of separation. There will be a lot of hoops tourney like bubble debate and various metrics used to support X team. Just watch the cluster F this show will be every Tuesday in November. Also the last home game #8 will be key just because of the $s.
 
adselder09 said:
Feels forced just because LSU beat Ole Miss. Who has Ole Miss beaten that they should be #11? Kentucky? Texas A&M?

Alabama is #6, lost at #1 Tennessee on a last-second FG. LSU is #10, got curb-stomped at home against #1 Tennessee. LSU also lost a "neutral site" game in their backyard to 3-loss Florida St.

Kansas St and UCLA both have arguments to be ahead of both of them.
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Kansas State hammered Oklahoma State last weekend, but still has two losses and lost to Tulane (yes they're ranked, but it's still an off the radar G5 opponent).

I could maybe make an argument for UCLA, but IMO they weren't putting three PAC teams in the top-10 and made a bit of a narrative argument for that by not ranking a 6-2 Washington that UCLA's beaten with one of those last few spots.
 
Summa said:
Interesting that Penn State is 15 and LSU is 10. Both teams are 6-2, Penn State went to Auburn and blew them out, LSU went to Auburn and only won by 4. LSU also lost to a 3 loss FSU.
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Guess who LSU plays this week? That is why they are 10.
 
I can't believe they didn't have UGA at #2 to hype up a #1 vs. #2 showdown this week. Possibly moreso confused they gave Ohio State the nod at #2 while having Penn State down at #15 behind a few multi-loss teams. The subjectivity level from #10 down would have allowed bumping Penn State up a few spots to justify Ohio State at #2.
 
Hammerdrill said:
Guess who LSU plays this week? That is why they are 10.
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I think that's certainly part of it. Setting up a Bama bump. They need a "quality" win or two against them and Ole Miss with how the rest of their schedule is playing out. They lost to the one high end team they played.
 
adselder09 said:
Alabama could have three losses right now - Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M. They're not one of the top 3 teams in the country.
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Coulda, woulda, shoulda. Bottom line is they beat A&M without Bryce Young, and won at Texas in a nice early road challenge. Bama is No. 3 in the Action Network’s metrics-based power ratings, by the way.

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adselder09 said:
Ohio State is better via eye test, but TCU has a better resume. This is why having a committee is tough because it's so subjective. You can say Ohio St is better via eye test, but outside of Penn St and ND who have they played?

You can see TCU struggle with Kansas and West Virginia - both road games - but they also beat ranked Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma St and Kansas St consecutively.

If you're going by resume of the contenders:
#1 Tennessee - wins over ranked Bama, Pitt, Florida, LSU
#2 TCU - wins over ranked OU, KU, OK St, K-ST
#3 Clemson - wins over ranked, NCST, Cuse, Wake
#4 Ohio St - wins over ranked ND and Penn St
#5 Oregon - wins over ranked BYU and UCLA
#6 UCLA - wins over ranked Washington and Utah
#7 Georgia - win over ranked Oregon
#8 Michigan - win over ranked Penn St
#9 Alabama - win over ranked Miss St
#10 USC - no ranked wins

But no one is putting TCU or Clemson ahead of Georgia, Ohio St and Michigan based on eye test.
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Odd that most all SOS metrics have Ohio State ahead of TCU.
 
nwwarrior09 said:
I can't believe they didn't have UGA at #2 to hype up a #1 vs. #2 showdown this week. Possibly moreso confused they gave Ohio State the nod at #2 while having Penn State down at #15 behind a few multi-loss teams. The subjectivity level from #10 down would have allowed bumping Penn State up a few spots to justify Ohio State at #2.
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Penn State isn’t any good. They’re too high at 15, honestly.

The committee doesn’t give a damn about ranking teams a certain way to hype a game, by the way.

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AEW Champion said:
Penn State isn’t any good. They’re too high at 15, honestly.

The committee doesn’t give a damn about ranking teams a certain way to hype a game, by the way.

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They are better than LSU.

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Summa said:
They are better than LSU.

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I don’t think either Penn State or LSU is very good, to be honest. LSU has a way more dynamic QB and superior WR corps, but they are young on the OL and in key spots defensively. I’d give Penn State a defensive edge. Overall, the fact that it’s debatable is a pretty big indictment of James Franklin since he’s been at Penn State for a good 8 years and Brian Kelly is in Year 1 of having to patch together a roster to dig out of the mess Coach O left.

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nwwarrior09 said:
I can't believe they didn't have UGA at #2 to hype up a #1 vs. #2 showdown this week. Possibly moreso confused they gave Ohio State the nod at #2 while having Penn State down at #15 behind a few multi-loss teams. The subjectivity level from #10 down would have allowed bumping Penn State up a few spots to justify Ohio State at #2.
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They kept showing the graphic that had Ohio State’s strength of record and strength of schedule ahead of Georgia.
 
nwwarrior09 said:
Kansas State hammered Oklahoma State last weekend, but still has two losses and lost to Tulane (yes they're ranked, but it's still an off the radar G5 opponent).

I could maybe make an argument for UCLA, but IMO they weren't putting three PAC teams in the top-10 and made a bit of a narrative argument for that by not ranking a 6-2 Washington that UCLA's beaten with one of those last few spots.
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Tulane 7-1, ranked in the top 20.
Florida State 5-3 unranked.
The Tulane loss currently is better than the Florida State loss.

I agree with your second part, but they also seemed to value the Big 12 by putting Texas in at #24 with 3-losses. Then TCU is sitting there at #7 with better wins than Alabama, yet behind the Tide.
 
adselder09 said:
Tulane 7-1, ranked in the top 20.
Florida State 5-3 unranked.
The Tulane loss currently is better than the Florida State loss.
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No one can possibly believe losing at home to Tulane is a better loss than a one-point neutral-site loss to FSU, especially when factoring in that it was LSU’s first game and FSU already had a game under its belt.

Tulane has beaten absolutely no one (par for the course for American teams) and took a loss to Southern Miss. FSU’s only losses are against Top 25 opposition.

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AEW Champion said:
I’d say blasting Louisville right now is their best win. But look at what they’re doing: All their wins are them destroying teams except Purdue. And they took Clemson to the brink in Death Valley, had total total of the game until late third quarter when a dumb personal foul after they stopped Clemson kept the drive alive and turned the game around.

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They destroyed Virginia? They’ve “destroyed” only half the teams they played.

Getting points for losing? Barf. You’re better than that.
 
Orin Swift said:
Agreed. I suspect ND is closer to their SP+ rating location (32) than AEW’s homer prediction (10) but I do think they’ll probably land near the middle around 20.
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Not even in the top 25. AEW was right about one thing: keep the committee, they know what they’re doing!
 
Orin Swift said:
They destroyed Virginia? They’ve “destroyed” only half the teams they played.

Getting points for losing? Barf. You’re better than that.
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This is how the OSU haters do mental gymnastics to justify wins and “almosts” while telling us how OSU deserves no credit for what it has done. They must shell out a fortune in Ibuprofen.
 
Orin Swift said:
Correct, it would be more appropriate to say you don’t understand college football outside high level things and make up narratives to fit your argument.
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Nah...take off your Buckeye rose colored glasses. Since 2006, the SEC has won 9 national championships by different programs. All the other teams in college football has won 4, including Clemson twice. Also, the SEC, year after year after year, puts more guys in the NFL than any other conference, and it's not close. It's not being a homer, it's pretty factual.

Look, if I just wanted to root for a team to win, I'd be a Buckeye fan, no shade to you guys. For the most part, you have 1-2 "big" games a year where you are only a single digit favorite. Most games are over by halftime, your offensive players rack up big numbers on inferior big ten defenses. The really funny part is when Buckeye fans crab about Clemson's schedule and weak conference??? Are you kidding me? Clemson and Ohio State are in the same situation, big fish in small ponds.
 
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