I certainly hope you are right. As I said, if most things go well, 90+ wins is possible. For a change, I think there is enough depth that a few inevitable injuries will not cripple the team. As a fan of the Reds, Browns and Blue Jackets, I am a little gun shy about being optimistic.
I'm naturally optimistic, but this team, and the pipeline in the minors should give fans alot of hope. I mean last season, McLain, Elly, Steer, Friedl, Marte all came up and had varying degrees of immediate success. Will Benson was found money from the Guardians and a key contributor. I just the ceiling is very high for this organization. I also feel we have so much depth that if for some Hunter Greene doesn't pan out, we still have enough arms to be contenders.
My thought on the Reds for 2024 is that they will only go as far as their starting pitching takes them. One of Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, or Ashcroft will have to performance live up to potential. Just don't think Moras will be healthy enough to help.
Not disagreeing at all, but last year, we got very little from the starting staff, and was in contention for nearly all the season. I just hope that the organization will let the guys pitch. Not shut them down or pull them after 4-5 innings all the time but I'm sure they'll be holding their hands the first couple of months.
That is my biggest concern with this team. Bell. His handling of the pitchers and constant jimmying the lineup are problems. But I can take this to the Reds thread...
Seen it before, about 4 hours northeast. Young Guardians team wins weak division and makes the playoffs. The numbers don’t really compute for a 90+ win season, but they did it anyway. So high hopes for the next season as all the young players will naturally improve. Ooops. Didn’t happen, and the Reds individual numbers last year aren’t all that great. To get as many wins as they did was an anomaly. I would like to see the Reds win the NL Central this year, but a 78-84 feels more likely.
So the Reds somehow take a step backwards despite adding 5 decent free agents and having the young core back intact?
That was my prediction a few posts prior. 78-84. That was just based on looking at the roster.
Here is the thing about PECOTA. It is heavy duty statistical projections based on empirical historical data. It assumes that players will typically perform very close to their career averages. It is very logical, I say it all the time, whether a player has a fantastic season or a slumping season, you can expect they will revert to the numbers on the back of their baseball card over time.
Of course. I’m in the camp hoping for 90 wins, but not expecting it this year. Baseball is weird, though. Some years you have a team that isn’t expected to do much and it just clicks for that that year, like magic. One of the mysteries and beauty of baseball.
Baseball is indeed weird, especially given the length of the season. Players surprise. Players disappoint. Injuries. Other teams get hot and cold. Then there is karma. The Reds more often than not live up to expectations to fail. It seems ingrained in ownership and management, and the vibe transfers to the players. But with baseball, hope springs eternal. Maybe 2024 is the Reds year.
Unlike past years, I think this should be the legitimate goal for this team. I know this team is very young in a lot of areas, but I also think there is an abundance of talent. Barring a rash of major injuries and unexpected poor performance, this team should be near the top of the division.
I agree it should be the goal, and this team is capable.
True, but there is a long way to go. Here is why I think the Reds are still in this...
True - certainly looking like Brewers and Cubs at this point.
I only quoted you because you were the only one who responded to my prediction, I believe. I just threw it in with the others. It’s only a quarter of the season. I will say the three Guardians you mentioned, Gimenez, Kwan and Josh Naylor have already made impacts in MLB. It’s not like they are lesser than the Reds players you mentioned.
