The Official 2022 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Team is bad but has also completely quit on its coaching staff and fans. I would say it could not get much worse but I see nothing to suggest otherwise. I’ve lost interest and I’ve been a diehard fan for my 61 years. Sad.
I'm not sure I'd say that. I've not seen this team not give effort day in and day out. After Steer's homer in the 8th yesterday, you'd think by the dugout reaction we were contending for a playoff spot. Most of these guys are auditioning for jobs either with the Reds or someone else next season.
 
I don't know about anyone else, but I really could care less if the Reds lose 99 games or 102. The message this season has been clear from early on, wins are not important this season. Now I question with Bell weather he ever feels like winning is important because we just don't do many in game moves that make it appear we're trying to win.
 
We'll see how it turns out with Luis. I wish him all the best. He's pitched his BEST baseball the last 3 months. If Seattle is paying for that, they got a great deal. However, if he is the Castillo from most of his time in Cincy...well, we'll see.
Don't be surprised if the Reds do the same with Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft if they continue on their paths. Paying BIG money for pitchers is a crap shoot. Ideal scenario is for the Reds to be able to keep drafting and developing Greens', Lodolos' and Ashcrafts' into the future.
What are you referring to? The 6 weeks at the start of 2021 when he was bad? The rest of the time (5+ years) he was great. Not good, great. Some career numbers: 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 929 K in only 851 innings. He is an elite pitchers and Seattle cut him a smart deal. Shameful that the Reds did not do that.
 
What are you referring to? The 6 weeks at the start of 2021 when he was bad? The rest of the time (5+ years) he was great. Not good, great. Some career numbers: 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 929 K in only 851 innings. He is an elite pitchers and Seattle cut him a smart deal. Shameful that the Reds did not do that.
So Baseball Reference has a "similar" player category they use to link up players with their peers and it goes back in history.

Castillo's similar pitchers include:
Brian Holman
Tijuan Walker
Joe Musgrove
Carlos Rodon
Ken McBride
Danny Salazar
Connie Marrero
Jim McAndrew
Lance McCullers, Jr.
Francisco Cordova

Not exactly a list of house hold names. Look I like Castillo, I wish the Reds could had come up with some way to keep him. 5 years scares me. I'd been better with a 2-3 year deal. But he's gone. We've got some good young pitchers at the major league level. and some more in the pipeline coming up.
 
Well, Luis Castillo got his contract extension - with Seattle. A little over $100M for 5 years with a couple of creative clauses in it, giving Seattle some injury protection at the end of the contract.

So now Seattle has one of the best pitchers in baseball locked up, through age 34, for just a little over $20M AAV. It is absolutely disgraceful that the Reds could not get a similar extension offered to Luis while he was still here. Disgraceful. Seattle is not a big market team, they are just a smarter ownership and management group that wants to win.

#SellTheTeamBob Fricking please.
I totally agree with this. Until it became totally clear that Castillo was getting traded, I was still on board with giving him a 4-year deal to stay. I remember sometime back in May or June, I even called into Extra Innings one night and suggested a 4-year, $85M to $90M deal would be doable for the team, and then saw some idiot on Twitter ridicule my take as being a ridiculous lowball offer that was unrealistic. Turns out that AAV is basically what he got, just for one more year.

Ultimately, good for Seattle. They got an ace for their playoff window at a fair cost. They also got the Reds 3B who is a key cog in their lineup with 30+ HRs and the Reds LF who is still capable of doing good things for them. They’ll certainly enjoy their playoff run and upcoming window while the Reds fanbase wonders how many years it’ll be before playoff baseball returns to Cincinnati.

But remember, the fans shouldn’t care about a team’s ownership group. /s

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
I don't know about anyone else, but I really could care less if the Reds lose 99 games or 102. The message this season has been clear from early on, wins are not important this season. Now I question with Bell weather he ever feels like winning is important because we just don't do many in game moves that make it appear we're trying to win.
I only care in so much as it would be just desserts for Bargain Bob and Pauper Phil if the team finishes 0-9 to set the franchise record for futility with 102 losses. But against fellow doormats like the Pirates and Cubs, they’ll probably avoid the disgrace of triple-digit losses.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
I only care in so much as it would be just desserts for Bargain Bob and Pauper Phil if the team finishes 0-9 to set the franchise record for futility with 102 losses. But against fellow doormats like the Pirates and Cubs, they’ll probably avoid the disgrace of triple-digit losses.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
The Pirates just swept us at home a few weeks ago, I'm not counting any wins. This lineup simply can't score, and we don't do anything to manufacture runs.
 
Never thought I'd say this, but don't be shocked if Chase Anderson is competing for spot in the rotation in the spring. Take his first two appearances out, he's been pretty darn good since.
 
Never thought I'd say this, but don't be shocked if Chase Anderson is competing for spot in the rotation in the spring. Take his first two appearances out, he's been pretty darn good since.
Would not be shocked, just very dissappointed. This franchise has become a joke.

#SellTheTeamBob
 
Who the F#$@ is Chase Anderson? I don't know who half these guys are anymore. Nobody under 50 years old cares, follows or talks about this team. With the Bengals, Bearcats and FC the Reds are an irrelevant afterthought.
 
Assuming guys get healthy in the offseason and stay healthy through preseason, the 2023 rotation looks like:

Guaranteed starters:
Lodolo
Greene
Ashcraft

Likely starter:
Dunn

Presumptive starter in May to manipulate service time:
Williamson

Early-season and fill-in options:
Overton
Anderson
Cessa (likely a long reliever who can spot start)

I still think it wouldn’t be a bad idea to sign one reliable veteran arm who could become trade bait so there’s an insurance policy against the parade of young pitcher injuries.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
Unless there is severe improvement in 2023 from Nick Senzel and Jose Barrero, I don’t see how 2023 is anything but another season of prodigious losing.

Even assuming full health, a lineup like below isn’t going to scare anybody:

2B India
3B Steer
C Stephenson
1B Votto
DH Solano/Farmer/Moustakas
RF Fraley
SS Barrero
LF Friedl/McLain
CF Senzel/Siani

I wonder if the business side of the front office sticks its nose into baseball ops decision-making and mandates Elly De La Cruz is on the Opening Day roster to try to combat rampant fan apathy.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
Back in 2006, when Bob Castellini bought the Reds, he said:
“We’re buying the Reds to win. Anything else is unacceptable,” said Robert Castellini, who was approved by Major League Baseball on Jan. 19 as the team’s new majority owner. … Asked how long it would take to bring the Reds back to playoff contention, Castellini said, “Our goal is to put a contender on the field this year.”


Well, 16 years later, we have six 90+ loss seasons to show for it. Since the MLB went to a 162 game schedule around 1960, the Reds have had eleven 90+ loss seasons. So that means there were five 90+ loss seasons in 45 years before Castellini, but Bob has racked up six 90+ loss seasons in only 16 years.

Before Bob, 1 year out of 9 was terrible (11%). With Bob, 37.5% of the seasons are terrible. And it looks like next year will add to the total.

#SellTheTeamBob
 
Back in 2006, when Bob Castellini bought the Reds, he said:
“We’re buying the Reds to win. Anything else is unacceptable,” said Robert Castellini, who was approved by Major League Baseball on Jan. 19 as the team’s new majority owner. … Asked how long it would take to bring the Reds back to playoff contention, Castellini said, “Our goal is to put a contender on the field this year.”


Well, 16 years later, we have six 90+ loss seasons to show for it. Since the MLB went to a 162 game schedule around 1960, the Reds have had eleven 90+ loss seasons. So that means there were five 90+ loss seasons in 45 years before Castellini, but Bob has racked up six 90+ loss seasons in only 16 years.

Before Bob, 1 year out of 9 was terrible (11%). With Bob, 37.5% of the seasons are terrible. And it looks like next year will add to the total.

#SellTheTeamBob
Adding to that, in the 17 seasons of the Castellini regime, the Reds have a mere five winning seasons, and the two most recent were of an extremely modest variety (31-29 in 2020, 83-79 in 2021). My math tells me that means there’s a 70.5% chance going into any given season that it’s going to be a losing season for the Reds.

The Reds’ postseason history during the Castellini regime has been filled with humiliation and embarrassment:

2010 - Reds open the playoffs by getting no-hit by Roy Halladay and summarily swept by the Phillies.

2012 - Reds blow a 2-0 series lead by losing Games 3 to 5 — all at GABP — to an underdog Giants team, joining the ranks of very few others who blew a 2-0 lead in a best-of-5 series.

2013 - The infamous “CUUUUEEEE - TOOOOO” wildcard game loss at Pittsburgh.

2020 - Swept 2-0 at Atlanta, where the putrid Reds offense couldn’t muster a single run in the series.

In its 20 years of existence, the Reds have not won a single postseason game at GABP, and haven’t hosted a playoff game in a full decade.

Lastly, it would be fair to argue that in the past decade, the Reds farm system has produced a mere 4 position players who went on to become decent or better major leaguers: Tucker Barnhart, Jesse Winker, Tyler Stephenson, Jonathan India. Unless I’m missing anyone who developed here and got traded and became noteworthy elsewhere, that’s it. Four guys. In a decade. Everyone else has been a failure, a likely failure still playing out (Senzel, Barrero), warm bodies who are nothing more than filler, or guys developed by other teams who the Reds then traded for or signed.

It’s impossible to win when your farm system produces four competent major-league position players in a decade.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
Would not be shocked, just very dissappointed. This franchise has become a joke.

#SellTheTeamBob
I'm sure the Reds will look under every stone to add a 4th and 5th starter, but I believe Anderson deserves a shot at it. Over his last 5 appearances,
20.2 innings
9 hits
3 earned runs
For the Reds to have any kind of success in 2023, they will need guys to come out of nowhere to have good seasons.
 
Who the F#$@ is Chase Anderson? I don't know who half these guys are anymore. Nobody under 50 years old cares, follows or talks about this team. With the Bengals, Bearcats and FC the Reds are an irrelevant afterthought.
The Reds picked up Anderson after he was released by the Rays near the end of August, I believe he was only a minor leaguer with the Rays. Anderson and Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson worked together in Milwaukee. Now I'm not saying that Anderson is the answer to anything, but he's a veteran pitcher, he's 58-49 in his 9 year career with a 4.21 ERA.
If the Reds can somehow squeeze out a year from Anderson where he could take the ball every 5 days and keep you in the game, then you have to look at him.
The Reds are an afterthought for you now, and that's completely understood. But the Reds are the sports anchor of the city of Cincinnati, there is no debate about that. The Bengals play 17 games a year and other than late last season, they've not been relevant in decades. There are likely more Ohio State football fans in Cincinnati than Bearcats and FC Cincinnati?? PU-lease. Soccer was supposed to take over America 40 years ago. Not happening.
 
Adding to that, in the 17 seasons of the Castellini regime, the Reds have a mere five winning seasons, and the two most recent were of an extremely modest variety (31-29 in 2020, 83-79 in 2021). My math tells me that means there’s a 70.5% chance going into any given season that it’s going to be a losing season for the Reds.

The Reds’ postseason history during the Castellini regime has been filled with humiliation and embarrassment:

2010 - Reds open the playoffs by getting no-hit by Roy Halladay and summarily swept by the Phillies.

2012 - Reds blow a 2-0 series lead by losing Games 3 to 5 — all at GABP — to an underdog Giants team, joining the ranks of very few others who blew a 2-0 lead in a best-of-5 series.

2013 - The infamous “CUUUUEEEE - TOOOOO” wildcard game loss at Pittsburgh.

2020 - Swept 2-0 at Atlanta, where the putrid Reds offense couldn’t muster a single run in the series.

In its 20 years of existence, the Reds have not won a single postseason game at GABP, and haven’t hosted a playoff game in a full decade.

Lastly, it would be fair to argue that in the past decade, the Reds farm system has produced a mere 4 position players who went on to become decent or better major leaguers: Tucker Barnhart, Jesse Winker, Tyler Stephenson, Jonathan India. Unless I’m missing anyone who developed here and got traded and became noteworthy elsewhere, that’s it. Four guys. In a decade. Everyone else has been a failure, a likely failure still playing out (Senzel, Barrero), warm bodies who are nothing more than filler, or guys developed by other teams who the Reds then traded for or signed.

It’s impossible to win when your farm system produces four competent major-league position players in a decade.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
Wow, I had not thought about the farm system, but you are right.

Adding to the shame of the entire organization, check this link out. https://champsorchumps.us/records/most-mlb-wins-since-2010

From 2010-2022, the Reds are 949-1047, or 98 games under .500. However, Cleveland has gone 1056-937 (119 games over .500) in that time span, with far lower player salaries. Why? They have a better front office from GM down through scouting and player development.

St Louis has gone 1108-886, so the Reds are basically 160 games behind them.

#SellTheTeamBob
 
Adding to that, in the 17 seasons of the Castellini regime, the Reds have a mere five winning seasons, and the two most recent were of an extremely modest variety (31-29 in 2020, 83-79 in 2021). My math tells me that means there’s a 70.5% chance going into any given season that it’s going to be a losing season for the Reds.

The Reds’ postseason history during the Castellini regime has been filled with humiliation and embarrassment:

2010 - Reds open the playoffs by getting no-hit by Roy Halladay and summarily swept by the Phillies.

2012 - Reds blow a 2-0 series lead by losing Games 3 to 5 — all at GABP — to an underdog Giants team, joining the ranks of very few others who blew a 2-0 lead in a best-of-5 series.

2013 - The infamous “CUUUUEEEE - TOOOOO” wildcard game loss at Pittsburgh.

2020 - Swept 2-0 at Atlanta, where the putrid Reds offense couldn’t muster a single run in the series.

In its 20 years of existence, the Reds have not won a single postseason game at GABP, and haven’t hosted a playoff game in a full decade.

Lastly, it would be fair to argue that in the past decade, the Reds farm system has produced a mere 4 position players who went on to become decent or better major leaguers: Tucker Barnhart, Jesse Winker, Tyler Stephenson, Jonathan India. Unless I’m missing anyone who developed here and got traded and became noteworthy elsewhere, that’s it. Four guys. In a decade. Everyone else has been a failure, a likely failure still playing out (Senzel, Barrero), warm bodies who are nothing more than filler, or guys developed by other teams who the Reds then traded for or signed.

It’s impossible to win when your farm system produces four competent major-league position players in a decade.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
We could probably debate this until the cows come home, but Zack Cozart, Billy Hamilton, Devin Mesoraco, Mike Leake, Tyler Mahle had at least equal if not better careers than Jessie Winker. So if you're measuring with Wink, then you have to include these guys. Cozart, for as much as we bagged on his bat, was a solid shortstop for the Reds for 6 seasons. Hamilton was one of the most exciting players in baseball, Mesoraco fell to injuries and Mahle was our best home grown starting pitching talent since Mike Leake.
 
We could probably debate this until the cows come home, but Zack Cozart, Billy Hamilton, Devin Mesoraco, Mike Leake, Tyler Mahle had at least equal if not better careers than Jessie Winker. So if you're measuring with Wink, then you have to include these guys. Cozart, for as much as we bagged on his bat, was a solid shortstop for the Reds for 6 seasons. Hamilton was one of the most exciting players in baseball, Mesoraco fell to injuries and Mahle was our best home grown starting pitching talent since Mike Leake.
I said position players.

Zack Cozart was already in the majors more than a decade ago. Mesoraco probably the same but never amounted to anything regardless, due to constant injury. Billy Hamilton was a major disappointment who could never hit and bounces around the league to play an emergency and/or defense role when a team’s better outfielders are hurt or can’t be trusted to play good defense. Hamilton certainly can’t be considered a success story for the Reds’ farm system.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
We could probably debate this until the cows come home, but Zack Cozart, Billy Hamilton, Devin Mesoraco, Mike Leake, Tyler Mahle had at least equal if not better careers than Jessie Winker. So if you're measuring with Wink, then you have to include these guys. Cozart, for as much as we bagged on his bat, was a solid shortstop for the Reds for 6 seasons. Hamilton was one of the most exciting players in baseball, Mesoraco fell to injuries and Mahle was our best home grown starting pitching talent since Mike Leake.
I guess Cozart fits the bill, because he debuted in the majors in 2011, and he was decent. But if your farm system's reputation is banking on Barnhart, Winker, Cozart, Mesoraco and Hamilton, you have very serious problems. None of them are above average MLB players over their entire career.

Hopefully Stephenson and India can help raise the standard.
 
I'm not sure I'd say that. I've not seen this team not give effort day in and day out. After Steer's homer in the 8th yesterday, you'd think by the dugout reaction we were contending for a playoff spot. Most of these guys are auditioning for jobs either with the Reds or someone else next season.
Losing 7 straight to the Pittsburgh Pirates says enough. Believe what you will.
 
I said position players.

Zack Cozart was already in the majors more than a decade ago. Mesoraco probably the same but never amounted to anything regardless, due to constant injury. Billy Hamilton was a major disappointment who could never hit and bounces around the league to play an emergency and/or defense role when a team’s better outfielders are hurt or can’t be trusted to play good defense. Hamilton certainly can’t be considered a success story for the Reds’ farm system.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
Did you know... Billy Hamilton is 74th All time in Reds history in games played with 690. 64th in at bats with the Reds with 2,491. 8th in club history with 277 stolen bases.
As I said, his impact is debatable, but to have a home grown talent give you those numbers - for a franchise as old as the Reds with their history, hardly a bust. And that's not even to mention he was the premier defensive centerfielder during his time.
 
Did you know... Billy Hamilton is 74th All time in Reds history in games played with 690. 64th in at bats with the Reds with 2,491. 8th in club history with 277 stolen bases.
As I said, his impact is debatable, but to have a home grown talent give you those numbers - for a franchise as old as the Reds with their history, hardly a bust. And that's not even to mention he was the premier defensive centerfielder during his time.
His impact is pretty clear: The Reds lost ground to the league with Hamilton in CF because most teams were obviously penciling in a center fielder who can consistently hit the ball. Just because Hamilton was given a ton of games and at-bats to prove he couldn’t hit isn’t exactly a feather in the Reds’ cap.

According to Baseball Reference, Hamilton has been worth 9.9 WAR for his career, and essentially that 9.9 was almost all racked up as a Red from 2013-18. It’s not a perfect comparison, but Hamilton doesn’t even crack the Top 30 of Center Fielder WAR for the timeframe of 2010-19. I’ve attached the list.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 

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Unless there is severe improvement in 2023 from Nick Senzel and Jose Barrero, I don’t see how 2023 is anything but another season of prodigious losing.

Even assuming full health, a lineup like below isn’t going to scare anybody:

2B India
3B Steer
C Stephenson
1B Votto
DH Solano/Farmer/Moustakas
RF Fraley
SS Barrero
LF Friedl/McLain
CF Senzel/Siani

I wonder if the business side of the front office sticks its nose into baseball ops decision-making and mandates Elly De La Cruz is on the Opening Day roster to try to combat rampant fan apathy.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
Why would the there be apathy. They are finishing with 20 - 40 more wins than many thought plausible back in the first 30 games of the season.
 
Did you know... Billy Hamilton is 74th All time in Reds history in games played with 690. 64th in at bats with the Reds with 2,491. 8th in club history with 277 stolen bases.
As I said, his impact is debatable, but to have a home grown talent give you those numbers - for a franchise as old as the Reds with their history, hardly a bust. And that's not even to mention he was the premier defensive centerfielder during his time.
Smart teams don't pay guys to steal second base, they pay guys who can get on first base (or hit it over the fence). Apologies to Moneyball.

You mention numbers - Billy's career .292 OBP (with zero power) says it all. He was a huge liability to have in the lineup. That the Reds gave him so many ABs says a lot about how bad the organization is. It also explains why the Reds were 124 games under .500 from 2014-2018 while Billy was "contributing".
 
I want to add that my complaint about Hamilton is toward the Reds organization. Billy by all accounts is a really good guy so certainly don’t mean to rag on him too much.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
I guess Cozart fits the bill, because he debuted in the majors in 2011, and he was decent. But if your farm system's reputation is banking on Barnhart, Winker, Cozart, Mesoraco and Hamilton, you have very serious problems. None of them are above average MLB players over their entire career.

Hopefully Stephenson and India can help raise the standard.
I agree 100%, especially when you have the number of high first round picks that we've had. Robert Stephenson was a bust. Nick Senzel is proving to be a bust. It appears we are moving the right direction with Greene and Lodolo, and hopefully the young guys we got with the trades this year pan out. I guess if we can't draft our own, we'll send veterans to other teams for their draft picks.
 
Smart teams don't pay guys to steal second base, they pay guys who can get on first base (or hit it over the fence). Apologies to Moneyball.

You mention numbers - Billy's career .292 OBP (with zero power) says it all. He was a huge liability to have in the lineup. That the Reds gave him so many ABs says a lot about how bad the organization is. It also explains why the Reds were 124 games under .500 from 2014-2018 while Billy was "contributing".
There's no doubt that Billy got a chance to play in Cincy because we were rebuilding, and he's likely not get the opportunity with a contender. Actually Billy's numbers would fit more with today's players than 5+ years ago. I disagree that he was a huge liability. He struggled to get on base and hit, BUT when he did, he was a guy who could change the direction of a game. Being able to steal bases opens up so much offensively for baseball teams. And in a game like baseball where there are alot of close games, one at bat can make a difference.
 
There's no doubt that Billy got a chance to play in Cincy because we were rebuilding, and he's likely not get the opportunity with a contender. Actually Billy's numbers would fit more with today's players than 5+ years ago. I disagree that he was a huge liability. He struggled to get on base and hit, BUT when he did, he was a guy who could change the direction of a game. Being able to steal bases opens up so much offensively for baseball teams. And in a game like baseball where there are alot of close games, one at bat can make a difference.
Billy's OBP would be acceptable, barely, if he would hit 30+ HR. With no power and terrible on-base %, you cannot play. Go sort the MLB stats on OBP and take a look. For an OBP at .290 or lower with less than 5 HR, you will find exactly 1 player this year with enough AB's to qualify. Myles Straw from Cleveland. He is also widely regarded as terrible, but the Guards have a real OF problem too...
 
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