The Official 2022 Cincinnati Reds Thread
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14Red
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So one of the major debatable discussions we'll have the next year is, do you move Tyler Stephenson to first base or possibly outfield to "lengthen" his career. And I'm not going to say that's not a good idea, but I just hope that Reds fans are not getting too far in front of themselves projecting Stephenson's career. He will be 26 years old in about 3 weeks, and is just scratching the surface of his major league career. Now one thing that I think fans need to really understand is that corner outfielders and first/ third basemen are typically your big time power guys. Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, etc. In just over 600 minor league at bats, Stephenson has 18 home runs. In just over 600 major league at bats he has 18 career homers.
My point is do you run the risk of moving your best catcher to first base, then being largely disappointed in his production? He's very productive offensively as a catcher, can he be as productive as the above average first basemen or a corner outfielder?
Much like Nick Senzel and Jonathan India, I think two important things to keep an eye on in 2023 is can those two guys, along with Stephenson, play 120-135 games? And be productive? Nick Senzel's time is running out, he's either going to be a the guy we thought, the overall #2 pick and a more than average major leaguer you can build around, or he's going to be a 4th or 5th outfielder. I think India has to put in another good year before I want to get really excited about him.
My point is do you run the risk of moving your best catcher to first base, then being largely disappointed in his production? He's very productive offensively as a catcher, can he be as productive as the above average first basemen or a corner outfielder?
Much like Nick Senzel and Jonathan India, I think two important things to keep an eye on in 2023 is can those two guys, along with Stephenson, play 120-135 games? And be productive? Nick Senzel's time is running out, he's either going to be a the guy we thought, the overall #2 pick and a more than average major leaguer you can build around, or he's going to be a 4th or 5th outfielder. I think India has to put in another good year before I want to get really excited about him.
Either move him or DH him if I'm the Reds. Tyler wants to catch though, but concussions are my number one concern going forward. I suspect he will develop more power going forward.
Reds are 9-4 last 13 games .
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
Stephenson has always hit. Agreed, the power is not there - yet - but he has shown great plate discipline, the ability to drive the ball the other way, and good clutch hitting. The power will come.
Catching is killing his career. This year alone 3 foul tips have caused a concussion, broken thumb, and now broken clavicle. Plus the home plate collision in SD for another concussion. His career is in danger at this point if he gets concussed again. Catching is also very time-consuming (in terms of preparation) and it also consumes a lot of a players thoughts. Freeing him from the burden of catching will allow him to spend all of his prep time and mental energy on hitting. Best thing the Reds could do for him and the team is switch him to 1B / DH.
14Red
Well-known member
The most important part of yesterday for the Reds is Hunter Greene made his 19th start yesterday. I don't know that any of us, in February would have thought he'd make that many starts this year. He's at 96 innings currently so it's would not be unusual for him to get regular starts the final two months of the year. He could end the season with 26-27 starts and approximately 140 ish innings? That would be a win for this franchise.
14Red
Well-known member
I know this will get things moving....
I kind of actually wish Castillo stays around. I really think we can resign him. Now there's no way we can offer what the Mets/ Yankees/ Dodgers and some other big spenders may be able to, but he's good enough to put out a competitive offer.
I kind of actually wish Castillo stays around. I really think we can resign him. Now there's no way we can offer what the Mets/ Yankees/ Dodgers and some other big spenders may be able to, but he's good enough to put out a competitive offer.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
Glad he has been healthy this year, and despite the 3-12 record and 5.59 ERA, future is promising for him as he keeps learning to pitch.
I'll be stunned if the Reds have him go beyond 125 innings. 4-5 more starts. With his past durability issues, no need to push him too hard on a last place finish.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
I've been saying that for 2 months now. But extending him now keeps the price down a little. Its what a smart GM would do.
14Red
Well-known member
Making the rounds recently is the Reds trade 7 years ago of Johnny Cueto for the haul of Brandon Finnigan, John Lamb and Cody Reed. Of course many like to just look at the surface of that deal and see the Reds didn't get much for Cueto, and there is some truth to that. However, a deeper dive into that situation says alot more.
- The Reds were NOT going to resign Cueto. They had next to no leverage in that deal, and the Royals just came up with the best the Reds could be dealt. Homer Bailey appeared in only a few games that season due to injury. The Reds had decided they could not pay Bailey and Cueto, and up until the start of '14, Bailey seemed to be the safer bet.
- The Reds were supposed to be decent that season. If you recall, Cueto, Leake, Disclafani, Lorenzen and Iglesias were starters at the beginning of that season. The Reds hung around for the firsr 3-3 1/2 months that season before it was evident they were not going to contend. Iglesias and Lorenzen got hurt trying to be starters.
- The Reds got maximum efficiency from Cueto. Cueto threw over 1,300 innings for the Reds in 8 years, won over 90 games and had a 3.21 ERA. The Reds paid Cueto a total of about $38 million over those 8 years. Cueto went from the Reds to KC and won a world series that year, then went to San Francisco and struggled with injuries the rest of his 8 years. Cueto was paid $130 million of those last 8 years for 47 wins, a 3.80 ERA and only 778 innings. Needless to say the Reds got Cueto's best years by far. Imaging the angst Reds fans would have had paying him all that money on the back end and getting so little. This season Cueto is with the White Sox, making $4.4 mill, he's currently 4-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 81 innings.
brianwr112
Well-known member
Nobody said they were going to resign him. The correct argument is the Reds should’ve traded several players but held on due to hosting the ASG. This depleted their trade value to a point that the Reds still haven’t recovered.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
The point of this "deeper dive" post is what? Post all the Cueto stats you want, the fact is unchanged. The Reds got 3 piles of crap for Cueto.
14Red
Well-known member
So is it just besides the point that the Reds "could" had been contenders that year? My beef with your argument is that's in complete hindsight. I don't know why some fans need to have an "all in" or "sell and blow up" decision made in April each year?
And the fact that the Reds haven't recovered has ALOT more to it than just this.
14Red
Well-known member
The Royals - or anyone else - wasn't motivated to trade the Reds much for Cueto.
The other point of the deeper dive is IF the Reds had given Cueto $130 mill for the last 8 years for his little production, y'all be complaining about that too.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
I'm not complaining that the Reds traded Cueto - they had to - everyone knew he was too expensive. My complaints are:
- they waited too long, could have gotten more value back by trading him sooner that year
- they did a pi$$-poor job of evaluating what they were getting in return
That is why I am yelling for them to decide NOW on Castillo. Either sign him to an extension NOW, or trade him NOW. Waiting till next season makes the extension signing more expensive, and the trade value lower. Why can't the Reds ever learn this?
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
I did not see that and don't want to. Very scary.
My youngest son was a freshman on the mound in college and a big dude scorched one back at him with one of those dam composite bats. No measurement on the exit velo (this was 2015 and NCAA D-II) but is was hit hard. Hit him in shoulder and then cheek. Huge bruise with seams on the shoulder, fractured cheek bone, and concussion. The sound was just sickening - a couple of the moms were crying. Another freshman pitcher quit the next day.
My son missed over a month but then came back and pitched 2 more years, but mechanically he was never the same - he unconsciously was shortening his follow through to the plate and looking up as he released. But no long term injury, thankfully.
14Red
Well-known member
- you can only say they waited too long because of what happened afterwards. What if the Reds have a big season that year and win the world series?? No one knows! We don't know what other teams were offering sooner, and the 3 guys they got from the Royals may have been the best they could get...we simply do not know.
They do not need to decide on Castillo now. It's all dependent on what they get in return.
before the season, Reds fans where whining that they didn't sign Castellenos. We'll, he stinks this year. Will the Reds ever get credit for not bending over and giving this guy the moon and stars?? We need fans to stop trying to be GM's. Just root for the guys in the uniforms and stop worrying about what players make.
14Red
Well-known member
That's and awful story and while it's great that it appears he recovered fully, as you say he was never the same pitcher.
I pitched at the NAIA level back in the 80's and I had my share of comebackers. I just think that you always need to follow through in a motion where you are in a fielding position. Constano was actually in pretty good position when the ball was hit, and it was a breaking ball at 83 MPH.
I worry about today's pitchers because you see some of these guys with their motion they do not keep their eyes on the plate area post delivery, they are so focused on delivering the ball at max effort their head and eyes come off the catcher.
Honestly, it's kind of shocking these things don't happen more often.
I pitched at the NAIA level back in the 80's and I had my share of comebackers. I just think that you always need to follow through in a motion where you are in a fielding position. Constano was actually in pretty good position when the ball was hit, and it was a breaking ball at 83 MPH.
I worry about today's pitchers because you see some of these guys with their motion they do not keep their eyes on the plate area post delivery, they are so focused on delivering the ball at max effort their head and eyes come off the catcher.
Honestly, it's kind of shocking these things don't happen more often.
AEW Champion
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Given the actions of the front office and ownership over the past two years, I am happy to see that they finally are fully committing to a proper rebuild.
Of course, if they knew they were going to have a fire sale after the 2021 season, I still think they should have been in sell mode by the end of June 2021 when they were sub-.500 and held three extremely attractive, high-performing assets: Jesse Winker and Tyler Mahle (both on fire with 2.5 years of control at that point) and Nick Castellanos (would have been the biggest rental bat in 2021). The rebuild may well have been further along already had that taken place.
As it is, it appears now that the Reds are essentially playing for a 2025-27 window of being competitive. Maybe they can compete in 2024 if the upcoming Mahle and Drury trades yield a couple of key components (catcher, outfielder) who are closer to major league-ready.
As it stands now, the key prospects who would be on hand at the big-level headed into 2024 would be Jose Barrero, Matt McLain, and perhaps Noelvi Marte and Brandon Williamson. Add a couple more ML-ready decent prospects and a couple of shrewd free agent signings, and you have an outfit that could compete in 2024.
Then you add Elly De La Cruz, Edwin Arroyo and maybe Andrew Abbott and Connor Phillips among others sometime during 2024 or 2025 and you have a young, cost-controlled, potentially good team by 2025.
Of course, there inevitably will be injuries along the way and not everyone will pan out, so the organization needs to be willing to spend in free agency once 2024 and 2025 roll around to supplement what will already be on hand.
As I’ve mentioned before, over the next year or so, I would like to see Krall work out extensions with India and Stephenson that buy out their arbitration years (24-26) and extend them another year or two (27 or 28) to really solidify that the window will run at least through 2027 instead of having to start making decisions on them by mid-2025. Plus that will solidify their costs, likely at a reasonable level, and as such, those contracts typically can, if necessary, be attractive tradeable assets down the road if the player performs to a solid level.
Despite some of the whining on Twitter tonight about never-ending rebuilding or about why Castillo was traded at all, the future of the Reds got brighter tonight with a pretty impressive return.
Next, they need to trade Mahle, Drury, Pham and Solano, and then they should be in pretty good shape.
Barrero then needs to be called up and playing SS or 3B daily … wherever they see him playing next year is where he needs to play now. Farmer can move to 3B if needed. Meanwhile, play Aquino, Senzel and Fraley daily in the outfield, let Koloszvary catch almost all games, and try to give Lopez and Fairchild some PT. It’s time to see which of these players, if any, are worth being part of the team’s long-term planning.
I am not particularly concerned about having a glut of shortstop prospects. Ultimately one or two will stand out as time goes by as the best defensive and offensive solutions at that spot. The others can then be moved to other positions as it becomes clear who the future shortstop(s) will be. The Reds will need a third baseman and some outfielders, and it shouldn’t be too tough to move good, athletic shortstops to other spots on the field. That’s the beauty of having shortstops … they’re often the most talented, athletic guys on the field, so they theoretically are well equipped handle a transition to a different position.
It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
Of course, if they knew they were going to have a fire sale after the 2021 season, I still think they should have been in sell mode by the end of June 2021 when they were sub-.500 and held three extremely attractive, high-performing assets: Jesse Winker and Tyler Mahle (both on fire with 2.5 years of control at that point) and Nick Castellanos (would have been the biggest rental bat in 2021). The rebuild may well have been further along already had that taken place.
As it is, it appears now that the Reds are essentially playing for a 2025-27 window of being competitive. Maybe they can compete in 2024 if the upcoming Mahle and Drury trades yield a couple of key components (catcher, outfielder) who are closer to major league-ready.
As it stands now, the key prospects who would be on hand at the big-level headed into 2024 would be Jose Barrero, Matt McLain, and perhaps Noelvi Marte and Brandon Williamson. Add a couple more ML-ready decent prospects and a couple of shrewd free agent signings, and you have an outfit that could compete in 2024.
Then you add Elly De La Cruz, Edwin Arroyo and maybe Andrew Abbott and Connor Phillips among others sometime during 2024 or 2025 and you have a young, cost-controlled, potentially good team by 2025.
Of course, there inevitably will be injuries along the way and not everyone will pan out, so the organization needs to be willing to spend in free agency once 2024 and 2025 roll around to supplement what will already be on hand.
As I’ve mentioned before, over the next year or so, I would like to see Krall work out extensions with India and Stephenson that buy out their arbitration years (24-26) and extend them another year or two (27 or 28) to really solidify that the window will run at least through 2027 instead of having to start making decisions on them by mid-2025. Plus that will solidify their costs, likely at a reasonable level, and as such, those contracts typically can, if necessary, be attractive tradeable assets down the road if the player performs to a solid level.
Despite some of the whining on Twitter tonight about never-ending rebuilding or about why Castillo was traded at all, the future of the Reds got brighter tonight with a pretty impressive return.
Next, they need to trade Mahle, Drury, Pham and Solano, and then they should be in pretty good shape.
Barrero then needs to be called up and playing SS or 3B daily … wherever they see him playing next year is where he needs to play now. Farmer can move to 3B if needed. Meanwhile, play Aquino, Senzel and Fraley daily in the outfield, let Koloszvary catch almost all games, and try to give Lopez and Fairchild some PT. It’s time to see which of these players, if any, are worth being part of the team’s long-term planning.
I am not particularly concerned about having a glut of shortstop prospects. Ultimately one or two will stand out as time goes by as the best defensive and offensive solutions at that spot. The others can then be moved to other positions as it becomes clear who the future shortstop(s) will be. The Reds will need a third baseman and some outfielders, and it shouldn’t be too tough to move good, athletic shortstops to other spots on the field. That’s the beauty of having shortstops … they’re often the most talented, athletic guys on the field, so they theoretically are well equipped handle a transition to a different position.
It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
Welp, message received. Reds owners/management aren't trying to compete until 2024-2026. Neat.
You have to ask, if this was always the plan, why did they hang on to a valuable asset like Castellanos last year and get nothing? Why did they go out and spend $20M on Pham, Solano and Minor this spring?
Answer: They never had a clue or a plan. Just waking up each day and doing whatever seems best that day, with no direction.
If the plan is full on re-build, let's get on with it. Need to move Pham, Drury and Mahle for young prospects today. No more half measures.
I'll be rooting for Castillo, Winker and Suarez in the playoffs.
You have to ask, if this was always the plan, why did they hang on to a valuable asset like Castellanos last year and get nothing? Why did they go out and spend $20M on Pham, Solano and Minor this spring?
Answer: They never had a clue or a plan. Just waking up each day and doing whatever seems best that day, with no direction.
If the plan is full on re-build, let's get on with it. Need to move Pham, Drury and Mahle for young prospects today. No more half measures.
I'll be rooting for Castillo, Winker and Suarez in the playoffs.
AEW Champion
God’s favorite poster
I agree with all of this. Until now, it seems the ownership has routinely been out of step with reality. The biggest examples of that being: Holding onto guys well past their selling point just to keep the franchise looking better for the 2015 All-Star Game, then getting nothing of value back for those players; randomly deciding after 2018 that “We’re just not going to lose anymore” and then using well-regarded prospects (e.g. Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs if I remember) to acquire Puig, Kemp, Wood and Farmer, when the farm system and existing talent had no prayer of supporting a win-now mode; signing Shogo Akiyama and then immediately making him a waste of money the same offseason by signing Castellanos and moving Senzel to CF; giving up bullpen guys after 2020 during their win-now contract phase; then tepidly going for it with meager bullpen parts in 2021 when it was clear the team was mediocre and had no quality depth behind their mashing stars Winker and Castellanos. Then this spring panic-signing journeyman vets due to media blowback from the fire sale.
If nothing else, at least there finally appears to be a clear plan for the first time in a decade. Now will they see it through and support it financially when the time is right?
I am first and foremost a White Sox fan (Reds are my NL team since I live here), but assuming the White Sox continue to fizzle out this year, I will be rooting for Seattle in the playoffs.
It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
brianwr112
Well-known member
Nice final game for Mahle as a Red
Gbulldog
Well-known member
I can tell you my least favorite involving the Reds...when Rose lit up Ray Fosse at the plate. Fosse was my favorite Indian at the time.
Rose is my favorite MLB player of all time. More how he played the game.
brianwr112
Well-known member
Been playing decent…keep everyone
14Red
Well-known member
Excellent post.
14Red
Well-known member
This is a true statement. And it's actually true. I mean really where are you going to go? Sure fans say nearly every day they are giving up and never going back, and they will. People love to win. So when the Reds win, they'll be back. No disrespect to the Bengals, but Cincinnati is a baseball town, always been, always will be. The Bengals came into existence in the late 1960's. Heck, I'm older than the Bengals. They've been to 3 super bowls in 50 years and alot of not so great seasons along with that. When you go history for history - the Reds, even with the last 20+ years still blow the Bengals out of the water. Plus football and soccer (he he) are so infrequent. Baseball is nearly everyday from when spring training opens in mid February to at least the end of September. The Bengals now play 17 days out of the year. 162 vs. 17. There is just so much baseball product.